Projecting the Twins’ Playoff Rotation

[Cody Christie]

If the Twins want to end their playoff losing streak, there will be a lot of pressure put on the starting rotation’s performance. Here’s how the rotation stacks up as the season enters the final month.

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

FanGraphs projects the Twins to have more than a 95% chance to win the AL Central with only weeks remaining in the season. Last year, Minnesota fell apart in September and saw Cleveland take the AL Central title. It seems unlikely that will happen again in 2023, but Minnesota sports fans have suffered enough heartbreak to know anything is possible. The team has suffered a record 18-straight playoff losses, but this team has the frontline starting pitching to help a team win in October. 

Before laying out the rotation, it’s important to note that a lot can happen in the season’s final weeks. That’s one of the reasons the Twins are considering shifting to a six-man rotation as Joe Ryan returns from the IL. This shift allows the team to give starters more rest during the stretch run and to set up the rotation for better success in the playoffs. If the postseason started today, here’s how the Twins would ideally set up their starting rotation. 

Game 1 Starter: Pablo Lopez
Lopez was the Twins’ Opening Day starter and was a first-time All-Star this season. His performance has had some ups and downs throughout the season, but he’s been one of the team’s best starters since the All-Star break. In his last seven starts (42 IP), he has posted a 2.14 ERA with a 46-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Lopez pitched a career-high 180 innings during the 2022 season, but there were signs of him tiring down the stretch. The Twins will look to avoid that problem this season, with him already approaching 160 innings. 

Game 2 Starter: Sonny Gray
Like Lopez, Gray was an All-Star and the team’s best-starting pitcher in the first half. He posted a 2.89 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and 101 strikeouts in just under 100 innings pitched before the All-Star break. In July, Gray seemed to tire, with his ERA rising to 4.85 with a 7.9 K/9. He turned it back around in August with a 2.81 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in his first four appearances. For the playoffs, the Twins must monitor how Gray is utilized. He has struggled when facing a line-up for the third time, so the team might need to limit his appearance to five innings or less. 

Game 3 Starter: Kenta Maeda
Entering the season, few would have predicted that Maeda would be lining up to start a playoff game for the Twins. He is in his first full season since undergoing Tommy John surgery and started the season at the back of the team’s rotation. Earlier in the season, Maeda missed time with a right forearm strain, which made his recent performance even more improbable. Over the last 11 games, he has posted a 2.91 ERA while holding opponents to a .654 OPS. His recent performance should stack up nicely compared to other team’s number three starters.

Game 4 Starter*: Bailey Ober
MLB’s playoff structure means the Twins only need three starters for the opening-round Wild Card series. Things can get a little more intriguing if the Twins win a playoff series for the first time since 2002. Ober has been one of the team’s most consistent starting pitchers, but he has already pitched a career-high in innings. If he tires down the stretch, the Twins will need to move a different starter into the playoff rotation, and there are a few options on the table. 

Other Options: Joe Ryan, Dallas Keuchel, Louie Varland
Joe Ryan was a borderline All-Star in the first half and would have easily made the team’s postseason rotation. He became home run prone while hiding a groin injury, so the Twins hope his performance will improve as he returns from the IL. Twins fans might be slightly scared about the possibility of Keuchel starting a playoff game in October. For him to get a postseason start, there would need to be multiple injuries or poor performance from those ahead of Keuchel on the team’s depth chart. Varland hasn’t started a big-league game since the middle of June, but he still figures into the team’s long-term plans. It’s also possible for some of these starters to move to a bullpen role over the season’s final weeks. 

What will change with the rotation in the season’s final weeks? How would you line up the team’s starters for October? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[MABB1959]

Once we get past Cleveland we can start dreaming.

[Parfigliano]

Your lineup looks good.  I'd add MAYBE MAYBE moving Ryan up in the pecking order DEPENDING how he looks on his return.  Then moving Ober down because based on his last 3-4 starts he looks completly like he's out of gas now.

[mickster]

Ray the game 3 starter, Kenta to the BP.  He has experience there, and was dominant in the BP during postseason for the Dodgers

[Twins GFP]

All depends on how the days off work:

Lopez, Gray, Maeda might be enough.  If not, Whichever of the Ober/Ryan/Keuchel they think is pitching the best and will give them the best chance to win.  The other two should theoretically end up in the pen bumping Sand and Floro.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

We could have a quite a bit of depth in the bullpen if move 1-2 starters, I think Ober could perform quite well out of the pen.  Possibly doing 2 inning if needed.  

[HerbieFan]

If Ryan can return to his first half level I think Maeda to the bullpen makes the most sense.  He's the only one with experience out there....and postseason experience at that.  Gray is likely a five-and-fly playoff starter so maybe Maeda makes a good piggyback for him.

[rv78]

12 minutes ago, HerbieFan said:

If Ryan can return to his first half level I think Maeda to the bullpen makes the most sense.  He's the only one with experience out there....and postseason experience at that.  Gray is likely a five-and-fly playoff starter so maybe Maeda makes a good piggyback for him.

I like this idea as well as using Keuchel the same way. He did a great job coming in for Ober on Sunday in that role.

[Blyleven2011]

Alittle early to be even speculating ,  with the possibility of injuries and the work load of some tiring  , the first trio  should be Lopez,  gray and maeda , if we get past that  then the next series should be Lopez,  gray , Ryan and not sure , but maeda should move to the bullpen  for the second round if we make it that far ...

There is still a 5 percent chance we don't even make the playoffs  , Twins need to tweak some area of weaknesses that are quite obvious  to us fans ,  but the plan of FO and Rocco might think differently ,,, 

Get hot and go on a winning streak would solve the problem  for a runaway division , I don't want to back into the playoffs , I want to see them earn it ....

[mnfireman]

Unless Ober gets a "reset" stint on the IL, I think Ryan moves into the playoff rotation, Ober has looked more than shaky lately and Ryan looked good on Saturday. 

I have not projected starts to the end of the season so I don't know who might wind up where, but if the team can clinch early enough, they can start aligning the rotation. Right now 1-5 looks like Maeda, Lopez, Gray, Ryan, and Ober. Unless Maeda is #5 right now, then he is going to have start being moved up to #3.

[Trov]

I fully agree 1 thru 3.  However, I think Ryan can regain some form and be better than Ober.  Now if Ryan does not return to form and continues to give up long balls like he is pitching BP then I would do Ober. 

[Kenny Powers]

My prediction of starting rotation:

1.  Lopez

2.  Gray

3.  Ryan

4.  Maeda/Ober (not sure which one pitches, but other will be available for long/piggy back innings)

 

I believe Keuchel will be in the pen as he might be valuable as a situational lefty over Moran/Headrick.

 

[Craig Arko]

1 minute ago, Kenny Powers said:

My prediction of starting rotation:

1.  Lopez

2.  Gray

3.  Ryan

4.  Maeda/Ober (not sure which one pitches, but other will be available for long/piggy back innings)

 

I believe Keuchel will be in the pen as he might be valuable as a situational lefty over Moran/Headrick.

 

Pretty much this, although it wouldn’t shock me if Gray was the Game 1 starter.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Ryan should start one of the first 3 games if he is healthy, probably game 3 starter. Just my opinion. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

All depends on how the days off work:

Lopez, Gray, Maeda might be enough.  If not, Whichever of the Ober/Ryan/Keuchel they think is pitching the best and will give them the best chance to win.  The other two should theoretically end up in the pen bumping Sand and Floro.

It’s all a bit premature as a lot can change about an individual pitcher in a month. I agree.  They can and should go with whoever they think gives them the best chance of winning at that point in time.  Somebody could reel off a couple of clunker starts and the entire picture will change. 

[mickster]

1 hour ago, HerbieFan said:

If Ryan can return to his first half level I think Maeda to the bullpen makes the most sense.  He's the only one with experience out there....and postseason experience at that.  Gray is likely a five-and-fly playoff starter so maybe Maeda makes a good piggyback for him.

Exactly.   Plus if you have Maeda in the BP and not used,  He can be Game 1 starter if you win the series, depending on days off built into the schedule. Then you have Ober or Kuechel as a piggy back available.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Alittle early to be even speculating ,  with the possibility of injuries and the work load of some tiring  , the first trio  should be Lopez,  gray and maeda , if we get past that  then the next series should be Lopez,  gray , Ryan and not sure , but maeda should move to the bullpen  for the second round if we make it that far ...

There is still a 5 percent chance we don't even make the playoffs  , Twins need to tweak some area of weaknesses that are quite obvious  to us fans ,  but the plan of FO and Rocco might think differently ,,, 

Get hot and go on a winning streak would solve the problem  for a runaway division , I don't want to back into the playoffs , I want to see them earn it ....

Need to bury CLE with upcoming games

[CRF]

Lopez, Gray, and Ryan are your three starters. You don't need more than that. Maeda for Ryan, if Ryan reverts to giving up bunches of homers. No way do I give Ober a start, based on his recent outings. Looks like he hit the wall and needs a rest. 

[nicksaviking]

Ryan should be three. Number one should be whomever Baldelli is least likely to get antsy about pulling after five. Until the All Star break, I thought that would completely eliminate Gray, but he's gone six innings or more in seven straight starts, so I'd lean toward him lead to things off.

Even if he doesn't like it, I'd like to see Maeda as an early-pull replacement out of the pen, like the Dodgers used him. If Baldelli gets squeamish and pulls a starter early, like he (and Molitor and Gardy) has done in the past, I trust Maeda in that role to keep the team in a game more than Ober and Ryan, and much more than most of the other bullpen options.

[Teflon]

I think it depends if the Twins plan to deploy a conventional clockwise rotation or surprise their opponents with a counter-clockwise rotation. 

[Hashim]

I‘m not confident in Ryan/Ober because they’re immensely talented but can be feast or famine especially with regards to home runs. I can already imagine them giving up 3 run homerun/Grand slam when we have the lead and the game is on the line. 

[Doctor Wu]

I would feel comfortable with either Lopez or Gray starting the first game. But after that, it's a roll of the dice. I would have penciled in Maeda for the next spot, but he didn't look so sharp in yesterday's game, but hey, that's just one game and he's been very good for the most month or so. I wouldn't rely on Ober at this point, so I'd stick with Ryan, and just maybe, depending on how he looks for the next month, you might consider Keuchel. He's got the playoff experience that might make the difference in a series. 

[old nurse]

Pablo and Sonny then pray for rain

[TopGunn#22]

We've speculated on this before and I maintain that if Ryan is close to his pre All Star break form he's clearly the #3.  Maeda has history of being moved to the BP come post season by the Dodgers and he's been VERY GOOD there.  Maeda probably becomes our 8th inning guy in the playoffs.  Ryan and Ober are the wildcards. Pre All Star break Ryan and he's #3.  If Ober's stint at St. Paul gives him the rest he needs to be strong down the stretch then Ober #4 and possibly starting Game #1 of the next round is perfect for the Twins.  Maeda and Keuchel reinforce the BP.  Boy, Funderburk looked pretty good last night.  He should be in the BP come playoff roster.  

[mnfireman]

The Dodgers had some very good rotations during Maeda's time there and he was always #4 or #5 in their rotation.

If the team gets past the WC round, lets worry who starts Game 4 of the Divisional Series if it gets that far.

[Minny505]

20 hours ago, Kenny Powers said:

My prediction of starting rotation:

1.  Lopez

2.  Gray

3.  Ryan

4.  Maeda/Ober (not sure which one pitches, but other will be available for long/piggy back innings)

 

I believe Keuchel will be in the pen as he might be valuable as a situational lefty over Moran/Headrick.

 

[IndianaTwin]

After last night’s game, Rocco talked of Ober’s next outing coming after “more than just an extra day or two.” I think he also used language of “three or four innings.”

To me, that sounds like…

1. A limiting of innings. Not surprising.

2. That he will keep pitching, not just an IL stint.

3. Since he last pitched on Sunday, and Rocco mentions “more than just a day,” I’m guessing he doesn’t throw again until at least Tuesday, Sept. 5.

4. When Rocco talks about three or four innings, it sounds like they are keeping him stretched out long enough to be able to start, but also that they don’t wish to have him start.

5. That also points to him not being in the playoff rotation. So, moving down to St. Paul does allow them the opportunity to start grooming him for bullpen usage.

If this is indeed the plan, I like it a lot. First round will be Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. That’s after an off day on Monday. Don’t use him over the weekend and he would be fresh. Let Lopez, Gray, Maeda air it out and play with a short hook, knowing that if you need to the bullpen, you can get three or more innings from Ober.