Week in Review: Powering Up

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins offense is finally showing signs of sustained life, with a pair of young lefty hitters emerging as the driving force atop the lineup. 

Minnesota is 8-2 since the All-Star break and three games ahead in the AL Central.

Image courtesy of Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/17 through Sun, 7/23
***
Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 53-48)
Run Differential Last Week: +11 (Overall: +43)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (3.0 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 95 | SEA 6, MIN 5: Gray Wobbles, Twins Drop Opener
Game 96 | MIN 10, SEA 3: Offense Explodes Behind Ober
Game 97 | MIN 6, SEA 3: Maeda Rolls, Julien Hits Key Homer
Game 98 | SEA 5, MIN 0: Kirby Cruises to Quiet Minnesota Bats
Game 99 | MIN 9, CWS 4: Buxton Breaks Out, Twins Bury Lynn
Game 100 | MIN 3, CWS 2: Vázquez Keys Comeback Victory
Game 101 | MIN 5, CWS 4: Lineup Surges Late to Clinch Sweep

NEWS & NOTES

The Twins didn't get any players back over the past week, but some key reinforcements are on the way. 

Jorge Polanco embarked on a rehab assignment at Triple-A, where he's 5-for-17 with a double and homer in five games. He made starts at DH and second base before debuting at third base on Sunday, where the Twins are working him in with hopes he can join their lineup there, alongside second baseman Edouard Julien and designated hitter Byron Buxton.

It wouldn't be surprising if Polanco spent at least one more full week at St. Paul, and maybe longer if the Twins want to build his comfort level at the hot corner. But soon enough, barring setbacks, he'll be activated. The prospect of re-adding Polanco's potent bat to this resurgent lineup for the final two months is very exciting.

The same can be said for getting Caleb Thielbar back into this high-performing bullpen. Twins relievers rank fourth in the majors in ERA, including a 2.00 mark since the All-Star break, but are still at least one arm short of feeling comfortable in the late innings. Thielbar threw a live batting practice on Saturday, and could be on track to start a rehab assignment in the coming days. Still no word on Brock Stewart.

Dallas Keuchel decided not to opt out of his minor-league contract with the Twins ... for now. He bypassed the opportunity to re-enter free agency last week, making another start for St. Paul on Saturday and tossing six shutout innings. He has another opt-out coming at the start of August, so one way or another, a decision point is approaching with Keuchel.

HIGHLIGHTS

The Twins are finally starting to form an offensive identity, with two stellar young left-handed hitters leading the charge. In an homage to the early days of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, Julien and Alex Kirilloff are giving fans reason to believe in the Minnesota lineup.

For the first time on Tuesday, Rocco Baldelli wrote Julien and Kirilloff into the 2-3 spots in the lineup. He was rewarded by watching the duo pile up six hits and score six runs in a 10-3 blowout win against the Mariners. The following day they again batted second and third; both homered. On Friday, these two helped put the Twins up 5-1 in the first inning when Kirilloff followed Julien's LONG single by pulling a homer to right.

Surpassing all expectations, Julien has legitimately been one of the best hitters in the major leagues as a rookie, ranking alongside MVP runaways Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuna Jr. in wOBA since being recalled six weeks ago. The power, patience, persistence ... it's all been on display at the plate. Julien is an instantly premier offensive player, albeit it one due for some regression with a .430 BABIP.

Kirilloff, meanwhile, is finally rediscovering his power stroke as he adapts to life with a twice-repaired wrist. He'd been getting the job done with a disciplined approach for the first couple months, even as he struggled to lift the ball, but here in mid-July the extra-base hits are starting to rain down for AK.

He capped off the previous week on Sunday by homering, doubling, and driving in four runs against Oakland. That breakout carried over to excellent performances against Seattle and Chicago – Kirilloff was 10-for-29 with two doubles, a triple, three home runs, and 10 RBIs in seven games. His two-out RBI single in the ninth on Sunday tied the game and paved way for a comeback win in extras. Baldelli now seems firmly set on his No. 3 hitter against right-handed pitchers.

Max Kepler is on the way to entrenching himself behind AK in the cleanup spot. Restoring the viability of his "Max Power" moniker, Kepler went 8-for-25 on the week with three doubles and two home runs, driving in six.  

With Carlos Correa continuing to perform effectively in the leadoff spot (6-for-26 with a homer, two doubles, and four walks last week), the Twins are giving opposing right-handers a sizable challenge by following with Julien, Kirilloff, and Kepler in succession. That mix will grow even more formidable once they get back Polanco and his punishing lefty swing.

This all might not necessarily help much with Minnesota's much-discussed shortcomings against left-handed pitchers, which they can aim to address at the deadline, but they're in the middle of seeing a ton of match-ups against righty starters so it's not a pressing issue at the moment.

They still have their missteps – as seen in the empty efforts against George Kirby and Lucas Giolito last week – but the Twins lineup has definitely looked rejuvenated since the All-Star break, scoring five or more runs in eight of 10 games while going 8-2. Minnesota had scored 5+ runs just eight times in the four weeks leading up to the break.

LOWLIGHTS

After all the clamoring for him to be called up, and then the angst over his sitting on the bench for a few days when he was called up, Matt Wallner returned with a bit of a thud. Receiving starts at DH and both outfield corners last week, Wallner went 5-for-20 with a double and zero RBIs. Meanwhile, Kepler is absolutely thriving. Baseball, eh?

Even with his production coming back down to Earth, it still makes sense to have Wallner in the lineup ahead of Joey Gallo, who went 1-for-15 with eight strikeouts in Seattle and then sat out most of the weekend series at Target Field due to pink eye.

Since May 15th, Gallo is slashing .159/.279/.373 in 45 games with eight home runs ... and 10 RBIs. It's solo homer or bust, and mostly the latter from Gallo. Sadly the same has become true of Byron Buxton, who went deep twice in Friday's game but otherwise was 1-for-17 with nine strikeouts on the week. 

TRENDING STORYLINE

There are a whole bunch of compelling storylines surrounding the Twins as we head toward the end of July. The trade deadline is looming in just nine days, with the front office said to be seeking bullpen help and a righty bat.

Keuchel could be called up to join the rotation at seemingly any time. Buxton is going to force some difficult decisions if his slumping persists much longer, especially as Polanco's return gets nearer. 

Finally, there's Walker Jenkins. The fifth overall pick still has not yet agreed to terms with the Twins, and the deadline is just two days away. Jenkins is one of only two first-round picks who hasn't signed. (The other is high school catcher Ralphy Velazquez, taken 23rd overall by Cleveland.) Starting to get a little nervous here...

LOOKING AHEAD

It's going to be a sweltering hot series against Seattle at Target Field, with temperatures approaching triple digits by midweek. Things will get no better in Kansas City, where the projected highs are 100+ throughout next weekend.

MONDAY, 7/24: MARINERS @ TWINS – RHP Luis Castillo v. RHP Kenta Maeda
TUESDAY, 7/25: MARINERS @ TWINS – RHP George Kirby v. RHP Pablo Lopez
WEDNESDAY, 7/26: MARINERS @ TWINS – RHP Bryce Miller v. RHP Joe Ryan
FRIDAY, 7/28: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Brady Singer
SATURDAY, 7/29: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Jordan Lyles
SUNDAY, 7/30: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. LHP Ryan Yarbrough

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[tony&rodney]

The Walker Jenkins situation (whatever you want to call it) is a little befuddling. Every team clearly had time to know what number was necessary to sign the players. The flow of information and communication should have all made a signing just a matter of finding the most convenient date to meet in person. It would surely be odd to find out that negotiations were a part of any conversations post draft. The only scenario remaining is the dreaded "failed physical". But doesn't that follow an agreement in principle on a dollar amount which is then pending a clean physical exam? Confounding/confusing at this point.

[tony&rodney]

I would say that the Twins were trending up. The at bats are slowly improving and the Twins have enough talent to go on a run. The schedule during the remainder of the season favors the local nine and several players are feeling better about their skills lately. 

[D.C Twins]

Correa, Polanco, Julian, Krill, Lewis at the top/mid of the order had a wonderous ring to it!

Buck needs to bat 6th or lower until he has proven otherwise over at least a 2 week stretch. 

If he is still playing poorly by 1 September and we are playoff bound, he is going to have to step aside and let someone else DH. 

 

[Cap'n Piranha]

Not signing Jenkins would be a complete disaster—get gifted the 5th pick in a generational draft with 5 generational players, and then not sign the player.  Whatever it takes, he has to be signed.

[blindeke]

Wallner's been fine.

[KirbyDome89]

Cease & Giolito just combined for 11 innings, 1 run, and 18 Ks.

Castillo and Kirby combined for 13 innings, 3 runs (all Castillo's) and 21 Ks to wrap the previous series. 

The Twins certainly took advantage of some bad (Oakland & Chicago) and inexperienced (Seattle) pitching but Idk if that's a departure from anything they did in the first half. 

 

 

[weitz41]

It's been an encouraging week. Hopefully not a mirage due to who they played. Getting Thielbar and Steward back and at their previous production would surely add to the BP. Adding a RH OF bat and another BP arm in the next week, plus a couple more series wins would hopefully keep the offense rolling and as they say hitting is contagious. 

On a side note, Keuchel not opting out has me wondering if the FO is considering parting with a back of the rotation arm..Someone like Varland or Meada...

[William K Johnson]

No one seems to be talking about what they are going to do when Lewis returns.   He is, in my opinion, our best baseball player.   He has to be somewhere in this lineup.

[rv78]

10 minutes ago, William K Johnson said:

No one seems to be talking about what they are going to do when Lewis returns.   He is, in my opinion, our best baseball player.   He has to be somewhere in this lineup.

Won't be a problem if Buxton doesn't start hitting. Buck to the bench or IL, Polanco to DH and Lewis inserted back into the 3B spot. To make room for him on the roster DFA Gallo.

[Peter]

I’m thinking 5-1 week pull away from division and put more distance from Cleveland 

[mikelink45]

Any game that has Buxton and Gallo both in the lineup is a mistake.  The 2 HRs by Buxton are not enough to erase the impact that he has had on the lineup.  But this week has been a good one for getting fans to start believing again.  Against poor teams or not this is what was needed.  

Wallner was 2 for 2 and hitting 308.  I will take him over Gallo/Buxton.  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

10 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Walker Jenkins situation (whatever you want to call it) is a little befuddling. Every team clearly had time to know what number was necessary to sign the players. The flow of information and communication should have all made a signing just a matter of finding the most convenient date to meet in person. It would surely be odd to find out that negotiations were a part of any conversations post draft. The only scenario remaining is the dreaded "failed physical". But doesn't that follow an agreement in principle on a dollar amount which is then pending a clean physical exam? Confounding/confusing at this point.

Jenkins is represented by the Twins' "good friend" Steve Boras.  I hope Jenkins signs with the Twins, but if he does not, he and his agent are being foolish. Then I guess he will honor his commitment to play with the UNC Tarheels and leave $7,000,000 on the table.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I know the Twins FO and manager and coaches know more about this than I do but will someone please reassure me that Polonco has good enough arm strength to play 3B. I recall several years ago, his side armed tosses to first base from the SS position were one of the reasons he was moved from SS to 2B.

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Cease & Giolito just combined for 11 innings, 1 run, and 18 Ks.

Castillo and Kirby combined for 13 innings, 3 runs (all Castillo's) and 21 Ks to wrap the previous series. 

The Twins certainly took advantage of some bad (Oakland & Chicago) and inexperienced (Seattle) pitching but Idk if that's a departure from anything they did in the first half. 

 

 

Gotta beat somebody - we play the same teams as the Guardians & other teams in the Division.

Beat Houston - Boston - NY - etc. ……can cherry pick results for either side of the argument…….they are 53-48 and still haven’t jelled for any real length of time.

Polanco - Lewis - Thielbar - Stewart should all contribute to a push forward down the stretch.

[weitz41]

2 hours ago, William K Johnson said:

No one seems to be talking about what they are going to do when Lewis returns.   He is, in my opinion, our best baseball player.   He has to be somewhere in this lineup.

LF maybe? But my guess is 3rd with Polanco at 2nd against lefties. Trade deadline may clear it up some as well.

14 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Question on the Jenkins signing... Has the team used up their allotted draft pick money and now Jenkins has changed his demands?  If so, are the Twins limited in what they can offer?  i.e. can they not go above their overall draft slot $ limit to sign him? 

My math says they have the full slot bonus pool available. I think the rule is you can go over you pool money at the cost of draft picks and/or international bonus pool money. But I think it's pretty limited at how much. Not certain on that but vaguely remember reading something about that.

[Dman]

21 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

My math says they have the full slot bonus pool available. I think the rule is you can go over you pool money at the cost of draft picks and/or international bonus pool money. But I think it's pretty limited at how much. Not certain on that but vaguely remember reading something about that.

That is what I saw too so they can give him full slot and he fell right about where he was expected to fall so I don't see why Boras would have leverage to get more than slot.  Especially since two of the top 5 already signed under slot deals.

That leads me to believe something might have popped up in the physical that is making them think twice or want to go under slot to try and sign pick number 20?  Not sure but it doesn't make sense that it is taking this long as the money is there.

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, William K Johnson said:

No one seems to be talking about what they are going to do when Lewis returns.   He is, in my opinion, our best baseball player.   He has to be somewhere in this lineup.

Because it's still at least a couple weeks out. Plenty of things will change by then. 

[jccracraft]

Lewis will play 3B when he returns, Julien and Polonco will cover 2B and 1B in some form. Kiriloff LF.

Really unfortunate that Kepler will not play CF. I'd say our biggest need would be for a good right handed hitting CF.

 

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Jenkins is represented by the Twins' "good friend" Steve Boras.  I hope Jenkins signs with the Twins, but if he does not, he and his agent are being foolish. Then I guess he will honor his commitment to play with the UNC Tarheels and leave $7,000,000 on the table.

You'd probablly wouldn't mind him playing for the Tarheels, wouldn't you?

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Question on the Jenkins signing... Has the team used up their allotted draft pick money and now Jenkins has changed his demands?  If so, are the Twins limited in what they can offer?  i.e. can they not go above their overall draft slot $ limit to sign him? 

From: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-draft-2023-bonus-pools-pick-values; 

Teams that exceed their bonus pool face a penalty. Clubs that outspend their allotment by 0-5 percent pay a 75 percent tax on the overage. At higher thresholds, teams lose future picks: a first-rounder and a 75 percent tax for surpassing their pool by more than 5 and up to 10 percent; a first- and a second-rounder and a 100 percent tax for more than 10 and up to 15 percent; and two first-rounders and a 100 percent tax for more than 15 percent.

 

[Doctor Gast]

37 minutes ago, Dman said:

That is what I saw too so they can give him full slot and he fell right about where he was expected to fall so I don't see why Boras would have leverage to get more than slot.  Especially since two of the top 5 already signed under slot deals.

That leads me to believe something might have popped up in the physical that is making them think twice or want to go under slot to try and sign pick number 20?  Not sure but it doesn't make sense that it is taking this long as the money is there.

You might be right, Jenkins had some hip problems prior.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Question on the Jenkins signing... Has the team used up their allotted draft pick money and now Jenkins has changed his demands?  If so, are the Twins limited in what they can offer?  i.e. can they not go above their overall draft slot $ limit to sign him? 

They can go over their draft allocation by 4.9 percent ($700K) with only a monetary penalty.   They are actually $300K under their allocation.  That would give them about $1M to try to sign the 19 & 20 picks if they sign Jenkins at slot.  Hopefully this plays out well with Jenkins and one of the 19/20 picks.

[Nick Nelson]

9 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Cease & Giolito just combined for 11 innings, 1 run, and 18 Ks.

Castillo and Kirby combined for 13 innings, 3 runs (all Castillo's) and 21 Ks to wrap the previous series. 

The Twins certainly took advantage of some bad (Oakland & Chicago) and inexperienced (Seattle) pitching but Idk if that's a departure from anything they did in the first half. 

 

 

Taking advantage of bad or inexperienced pitching would be a departure from what they did in the first half lol

[Vanimal46]

Good week overall. SSS, but the offense numbers as a whole look very encouraging since the All Star Break. 8th in BA (.271) 5th in OBP (.360) 1st in OPS (.859)

Correa needs to stay hot. I would love to see him hit an OPS of .800 or more this month. 

[HokieRif]

If our 1-4 spots in the batting order stay the same (Correa, Julien, Kirilloff, Kepler) then I think the top half of the order can finally stay consistent for more than a week.  Correa's 6-26 doesn't exactly scream success until you factor in the 4 BBs.  As long as he can continue to get on base then that should hopefully setup success in the 2-4 spots in the order.  Looking further down, I dont know how anyone but Jeffers could be in the 5-spot when he's behind the plate. 

[KirbyDome89]

6 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Gotta beat somebody - we play the same teams as the Guardians & other teams in the Division.

Beat Houston - Boston - NY - etc. ……can cherry pick results for either side of the argument…….they are 53-48 and still haven’t jelled for any real length of time.

Polanco - Lewis - Thielbar - Stewart should all contribute to a push forward down the stretch.

Who is arguing that the Twins need to give the Ws back?

[Mike Sixel]

5-20 is actually quite good in 2023....so I have zero idea what that sentence is supposed to mean.

I've called for teh FO to be fired most of the year, if they fail to sign Jenkins......

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Taking advantage of bad or inexperienced pitching would be a departure from what they did in the first half lol

Yeah they definitely never ambushed anybody, or looked anemic against better arms in the 1st half....

[tarheeltwinsfan]

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

You'd probably wouldn't mind him playing for the Tarheels, wouldn't you?

You got me on that response Doc. You are correct that I am a Tar Heel fan. However, I sincerely hope that this young man is smart enough to take the money and sign with the Twins.