The Twins Shouldn't Trade Sonny Gray Out of Panic

[Beast]

They shouldn’t do it out of panic.

They should do it out of solid sustainable roster management and enough self-awareness to realize this team isn’t good enough to win anything.

Also, looking at Gray, he’s 35, he doesn’t have an incredibly durable history (he’s pitched 175 innings once since 2018).  He’s being a little overrated by Twins fans, I think.  He’s sporting a 1.27 WHIP this year, which is actually higher than his career average.  His K/BB ratio is the worst it’s been since 2017-2018 when he posted 4+ ERAs in both years.  He’s come back down to earth fairly hard, with a 4.13 ERA over his last 7 starts, a 1.37 WHIP, while averaging 5.5 innings.  His K/BB ratio is up fairly significantly.

He’s almost certainly gone after this year.  An article came out recently that he may even retire.  If that happens, do you even get a comp pick?

Lastly, I’m sure he’d be OK with a trade.  He clearly has significant differences with Baldelli in terms of how he’s handled.

Good pitcher, but we wouldn’t be trading prime Jake DeGrom, here.  If you get the right return, by all means pull the trigger.

The farm system has been raided in recent years and there’s not a whole lot to look forward to at this point.  If they’re not going to be aggressive and make a move to win at the deadline, you have to sell.  Sitting on your hands hoping this hapless roster turns it around is foolish. 

[laloesch]

47 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

That absolutely isn't the only argument, the other is to have an eye on this year (Trade for a relief pitcher and maybe a hitter) and the future. Letting him and Maeda go for a pick that is probably 4 or more years away doesn't nothing for the 24 rotation. Next year it would be Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Paddock coming back from injury and who?  So they have to go out and trade for another starter (probably at a higher cost than the pick they get from Gray) or they have to go out and spend more money, or go back to going into another season with questions marks at 2 starting pitchers and maybe another Ober injury.

Next year SWR will be 23, Festa 24, Varland 26, can you continue to have these type of players on the 40 man without figuring out what they have?

 

I think if the Twins could have signed Gray to an extension they would have by now and maybe they still will, but judging by comments Gray has made to the Star Tribune he fully intends to test free agency which probably means he's gone.  At that point aside from getting a compensation pick the Twins come up empty handed considering that pick will take 4 years to make the majors.  So I think they SHOULD listen to offers for Gray.  Or go all in and try and win now which is extremely unlikely to happen and quite honestly their offense isn't capable of it (too many holes to fill).

[Mike Sixel]

I'm baffled that anyone thinks trading Gray is panicking. It's the literal opposite of that. Truly. 

I think it is reasonable to keep him, but I don't think this team, given they refuse to fix the dumpster fire of an outfield, has any chance in the playoffs. 

There are plenty of reasons to keep Gray, none of which have to do with not panicking 

[jkcarew]

How again would trading Gray to enhance talent for the longer-term be 'panicking'?? It would be the opposite. It would be giving up a perceived chance at immediate gratification for a longer-term benefit.

Now, tell me again how keeping Gray (and/or buying) in the face of complete mediocrity would be 'sending the right message'?? The message it sends is "this is what Twins success looks line"...we're in the race!...we're "trying"! But, in reality, all it does is lower the bar for what fans should expect going forward.

Now...depending upon what offers are...sure, maybe the smartest decision is to keep him and go with the QO. We don't know and never will, probably.

But they should be shopping him. And I call it smart, not panic.

[Ski U Mah Gopher]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

The Phillies made the world series last year off an 87 win regular season. Heck, the Twins won the world series in 1987 off of 85 wins, a -20 run differential, and would have been 5th in the AL east that season (good thing they were in the West.)

You get into the playoffs, and you have good pitching, you have a chance. No reason to scoff otherwise. It's been true forever.

And the King of Mediocre WS Winners: The 2006 Cardinals at 82-80.

[NotAboutWinning]

Why he should not be traded: it would be totally demoralizing to the one part of the team that is a high functioning, cohesive unit.

Why he might be traded: it would be the spotlight, smartest person in the room move that is Falvey's speciality... "Who trades from the top 3 rated pitching staff on a first place team?"

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, laloesch said:

I don't understand the fascination with SWR.  The guy has horrible minor league stats and has shown no sign yet of turning the corner and being major league starter material.  Varland and Festa yes i agree.

Not really a fascination, but isn't this the second season on the 40 man? I mean you can't continue to keep guys on your 40 that aren't part of the future one way or another?

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm baffled that anyone thinks trading Gray is panicking. It's the literal opposite of that. Truly. 

For sure. Trading Gray now when most people would think their job is in jeopardy would be the nerves-of-steel move.

I'd rather keep him myself, but trading him would absolutely show stones.

[Johnny Ringo]

Regardless of your playoff circumstances, all players should be trade candidates always. If you can get the right price, no one should be sacred. Loyalty by players or teams is gone, if it ever existed at all. That sounds Machiavellian, but that should be the mindset. But when star players are traded that value proposition is seldom realized by the selling team.  That's when fans get really mad. 

So what does that mean with Gray? I have no idea. What is being offered for him?  

Ps. With two extra rounds of playoffs, the 1987 comparison should perhaps be reconsidered. 

 

[Lou Hennessy]

37 minutes ago, NotAboutWinning said:

Why he should not be traded: it would be totally demoralizing to the one part of the team that is a high functioning, cohesive unit.

Why he might be traded: it would be the spotlight, smartest person in the room move that is Falvey's speciality... "Who trades from the top 3 rated pitching staff on a first place team?"

When has Falvey ever done something like that?

 

Also, I've been seeing a lot of "smartest person person in the room" digs from people on Twitter and I don't understand what you mean by it. Care to elaborate? 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Beast said:

They shouldn’t do it out of panic.

They should do it out of solid sustainable roster management and enough self-awareness to realize this team isn’t good enough to win anything.

Also, looking at Gray, he’s 35, he doesn’t have an incredibly durable history (he’s pitched 175 innings once since 2018).  He’s being a little overrated by Twins fans, I think.  He’s sporting a 1.27 WHIP this year, which is actually higher than his career average.  His K/BB ratio is the worst it’s been since 2017-2018 when he posted 4+ ERAs in both years.  He’s come back down to earth fairly hard, with a 4.13 ERA over his last 7 starts, a 1.37 WHIP, while averaging 5.5 innings.  His K/BB ratio is up fairly significantly.

He’s almost certainly gone after this year.  An article came out recently that he may even retire.  If that happens, do you even get a comp pick?

Lastly, I’m sure he’d be OK with a trade.  He clearly has significant differences with Baldelli in terms of how he’s handled.

Good pitcher, but we wouldn’t be trading prime Jake DeGrom, here.  If you get the right return, by all means pull the trigger.

The farm system has been raided in recent years and there’s not a whole lot to look forward to at this point.  If they’re not going to be aggressive and make a move to win at the deadline, you have to sell.  Sitting on your hands hoping this hapless roster turns it around is foolish. 

Gray is 33, fyi.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Beast said:

 Sitting on your hands hoping this hapless roster turns it around is foolish. 

Selling known attributes for Pie-in-the-Sky wannabes, that would be foolish.

[KirbyDome89]

6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The Twins went 2-4 against Baltimore this year. Including winning the first series 2-1. Which, in the wild card round, means winning the series and advancing. Went 3-3 against Toronto. 4-2 against Houston. Would I put a whole bunch of money on the Twins? No. But the Twins were .500 against those 3 squads so I'm not sure why the Twins would be shivering at those names either.

They shouldn't.

This team is also 21-28 vs teams above .500 and 15-17 against sub .500 teams not named KC or Oakland. I wouldn't bank on winning many 1-0 games (middle game of that 1st Baltimore series) in the postseason but it could happen I guess. I get why some would move on.

None of the above improves by shipping out Gray though. I'd keep him. Entertainment is the product, winning is more fun than losing, and MN's odds of doing the former are better if Gray is starting in October. I think there are other ways to make up whatever hypothetical future talent you're eschewing to hang onto Gray for the 2nd half. 

[South Dakota Tom]

The calculus is whether Gray can bring back more than:

a) a solid shot at the playoffs in 2023, and he'd pitch playoff game(s) for us; and

b) a pretty reasonable draft pick next year; and

c) the perception that the team isn't tanking on its fans.

That is a hard offer to top.

[DocBauer]

With a few exceptions, almost anybody is available for trade at any time. That's just basic logic if someone makes an offer too good to pass up. But I say no to trading Gray, though indont know that "panic" is necessarily the right term. 

I want this team to win the ALC and have a first round, home, 3 game series in the playoffs. Do I think this team has a legitimate chance to win the WS? I do not. Not unless the offense suddenly turns in to a middle of the pack offense to go along with the staff they have on hand.

But I want that ALC flag. I want my team to reach the playoffs, and maybe win that first round series. And they can. Next year's team will be different than this year's team to be sure. But I believe winning helps build a winning attitude. 

I don't care about next year, right now. I care about now, right now. I DON'T want to purge the system to "go for it" when there are this many questions about the offense. I AM OK, with a couple small deals for a RP and RH bat rental. 

But the chances of winning the ALC and winning a first round series...who knows what might happen after that...are better with Gray. And as a FAN, I want my team to win as many games as they can. I want every flag to fly I can get. I want my team to win playoff games and let me enjoy as much winning as I can this season.

Gray helps that happen. A prospect or two from A or AA ball that won't do anything for this year, maybe not next year, doesn't excite me as much as my Twins accomplishing the things I've just stated.

I want to look forward to 2024, but be able to sit back at some time this offseason...when it's all said and done...and say to myself: "didn't turn out the way I had hoped, but that was fun!"

[Schmoeman5]

11 hours ago, Lou Hennessy said:

When has Falvey ever done something like that?

 

Also, I've been seeing a lot of "smartest person person in the room" digs from people on Twitter and I don't understand what you mean by it. Care to elaborate? 

Perhaps it's the surly grumps who only care about box scores and win loss comment.  Maybe that or bashing people who disagree. Not everyone takes kindly to that. Challenging different points of view is great and productive. Being dismissive is not

[Reptevia]

How would we replace his 4 wins???

[TwinsDr2021]

21 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Extend Ryan & Duran & consider Ober……may need 3 months of ‘24 on Ober prior to offer.

Why would you extend Ober when you have him locked though age 32 (4 more years after this year)

Ryan is on the same track just about a year younger. Duran is locked up until he is 30, extending him might make some sense but you never know with relief pitchers.

Currently Pablo, Ryan, Ober and Duran all become free agents prior to the 28 season. So they have a couple of years before they really need to make any decisions on extending or trading them.

That is the magic of bringing your prospects up at a later age, you never really have to give them a big contract, you have control of them until after the age of 30.

[Nine of twelve]

19 hours ago, Johnny Ringo said:

Regardless of your playoff circumstances, all players should be trade candidates always. If you can get the right price, no one should be sacred. Loyalty by players or teams is gone, if it ever existed at all. That sounds Machiavellian, but that should be the mindset. But when star players are traded that value proposition is seldom realized by the selling team.  That's when fans get really mad. 

So what does that mean with Gray? I have no idea. What is being offered for him?  

Ps. With two extra rounds of playoffs, the 1987 comparison should perhaps be reconsidered. 

 

Highlighting this just for emphasis. Trade any player at any time if the trade improves the state of the franchise. Period.

And regarding the 1987 Twins, I also wish people wouldn't use that example. In today's American League (including Tampa Bay and its stellar record) and today's postseason format the Twins would have been the 3rd Wild Card team, seeded 6th. In 1987 they got through two 7-game series with two quality starters and good luck (like Terry Pendleton barely able to play for St. Louis, for example). That's not going to happen ever again.

[TwinsDr2021]

13 hours ago, DocBauer said:

But the chances of winning the ALC and winning a first round series...who knows what might happen after that...are better with Gray.

maybe that is true, but the Twins are 3 - 11 in his last 14 starts. Maybe a Festa gets called up if Maeda or Gray gets traded and goes on nice run, or Varland comes back up and pitches well?

Right now Gray feels like the Twins 4th best starter and if somebody offers you something real good you take that for a FA to be or you keep him and trade Maeda, if I am this FO I am keeping one and trading one of them if possible.

But I understand I am in the minority of thinking Gray is vastly overrated.

[TwinsDr2021]

14 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

Highlighting this just for emphasis. Trade any player at any time if the trade improves the state of the franchise. Period.

And regarding the 1987 Twins, I also wish people wouldn't use that example. In today's American League (including Tampa Bay and its stellar record) and today's postseason format the Twins would have been the 3rd Wild Card team, seeded 6th. In 1987 they got through two 7-game series with two quality starters and good luck (like Terry Pendleton barely able to play for St. Louis, for example). That's not going to happen ever again.

Don't forget about jack Clark and his 1.055 OPS being injured.

[Karbo]

23 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

The “let’s see what we have for the future” approach is for after you are eliminated from post season, IMO. AAA and Spring Training is for evaluating, not the Show in August when you are in first place in your Division - right?

We outta have a pretty fair idea of who Varland & SWR are by now!

Not a real big proponent of signing Gray v. some other potential FA arm in off-season……his salary must be approaching $15M now - we are paying Maeda $5-$7M - Mahle $12M…..generally good numbers. Not signing Mahle nor Maeda in ‘24 are nearly certainties…….this leaves $$$ for Gray within this year’s current budget.

We also trim Polanco - Gallo - Kepler at a minimum after ‘23, that’s $34M or in a close range saved from this year’s budget………spots filled with guys in our system.

Sign Gray for $23.5/year for 2 years and have $40M plus leftover from the existing budget. One way to go.

I make the offer to Gray now to see where his head’s at - the security he gains & confidence shown in him could propel him through the remainder of this year & forward!

I don't believe Gray wants to stay here from some of his comments over the past couple years. That said, to trade him would require a pretty good return and who knows at this point what other teams would be willing to give. I can't help but wonder if the way Keuchel has pitched will influence the decision. 

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Lot of truth in this. Personally, I have the under on his 2nd half performance vs. his first. Do the Twins ever sell high?  It’s really not their MO (other than Arraez). 

Regardless, the Twins are in it to make the playoffs where, yes, anything can happen. Besides, if Falvey, Rocco and Co. truly need a playoff win to keep their jobs, there is no chance they move Gray. The incentives for what is best for the future of the organization and what’s best for current mgmt are not 100% aligned. Gray stays.

They will/should only trade Gray if they receive a blow away offer - i.e. a legitimate projectable starting position player (preferably a right handed CFer if we are getting super specific) for at worst a late ‘24 arrival. But that’s not going to happen.  

CF that may fit……Grichuk from Colorado……Fairchild from Cincinnati??

[Fire Dan Gladden]

This does not conform with the TD masses...

Stop bringing logic to an emotional argument.

[bighat]

On 7/17/2023 at 9:38 AM, LastOnePicked said:

Emotions run strong in all kinds of directions, and bad decisions can be made just as easily on hope as they can on "panic."

And I don't see much panic from Twins fans. I see justifiable and clear-eyed skepticism. Put this team in the AL East, and the playoffs are a pipe dream. A scenario where the Twins further thin their already-thin farm system through deadline trades, only to fall short in making the playoffs in the easiest division in baseball isn't some panicked, imagined scenario from "surly" longtime fans - it's the reliable recent trend. In fact, it's a very likely outcome for 2023.

But sure, keep swiping at the fans who are warning about icebergs on the horizon. I mean, what damage can a little ice do to a steel ship anyways, right?

Thanks so much for this dose of reality. When I've expressed similar skepticism this season, it's been met with responses insinuating I'm a "bad fan" and I've even received a warning for posting the phrase "I hope the Twins lose by less than 3" on a game day thread (it's all good, TD!)

I have no idea how people who have watched this 2023 team believe this team has a chance in the postseason - IF they make the postseason at all. The Twins should absolutely trade Gray if they get a good offer, and the same goes for other talent. 

Finally, just because some of us are down on the Twins doesn't mean we don't cheer for them. I want them to win every single game. But it's silly to pretend this team is good, or even average. They got crushed at home by the O's and are on their way to losing a series in Seattle. The Oakland sweep means nothing.