McDaniel Mock Draft Pairs Twins with Skenes, But Raises Eyebrows

[Jeremy Nygaard]

'Tis the season for mock drafts and the one on ESPN Tuesday morning is sure to cause consternation around Twins Territory.

Image courtesy of Gary Cosby Jr. - Tuscaloosa News

Kiley McDaniel is ESPN's resident baseball draft expert and his entire mock draft sits behind a paywall so we're not going to give up too much of his article. But we're going to focus on two things... and they present both the good and possibly ugly possibilities of the upcoming draft.

First off, McDaniel presents a scenario where the Pirates don't take the player most project to go first overall, LSU's Dylan Crews, and instead take prep outfielder Max Clark. In turn, the Pirates will save some money and be able to throw Top 15 money at a prep pitcher with their second pick (at 42 overall).

However the dominos fall after that, there will still be one of the Top 5 unselected when the Twins come on the clock  - remember, there are five big names in this draft - and in this iteration, it's Paul Skenes of LSU who is available. Skenes is the best college pitching prospect in recent memory and there is belief that, if a team desired, Skenes could make his major-league debut this summer.

McDaniel mocks Paul Skenes to the Twins. This would be very, very good for the Twins.

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But here's where the ugly comes in.

Quote

I actually had two sources confidently tell me that in this scenario, the Twins would take Jacob Gonzalez over Skenes due to the hitter preference of their draft model.

This is not the first suggestion that the Twins prefer a college bat. College shortstops Jacob Gonzalez and Jacob Wilson both are names that have been suggested. McDaniel also suggests the Twins are high on top prep pitcher Noble Meyer.

So why would the Twins pass on one of the top five to take someone else? I'll give you a few reasons.

• Teams stack boards differently. The "Top 5" is where the prognosticators have settled. But it's certainly not a consensus among the 30 major league teams. It's possible the Twins Top 5 are just different. I'd confidently say that Crews and Wyatt Langford are probably 1 and 2 on the Twins board. After that, though, it's anyone's guess. (And I'll make my guess later.)
• The Twins are privy to far more information than any expert. Area scouting, as it's been described to me, has a very similar feel to college recruiting. The team is going to get as much information as they can on every potential pick and part of that information includes how much it's going to take to get a signature on the dotted line. And the reality is if a team thinks similarly of Player A and Player B, and Player B is going to sign for $500,000 less, the team is taking Player B. What gets more interesting is when a team likes Player A a little bit more than Player B and Player B a little bit more than Player C. And Player C is going to cost $1 million less than Player A and $500,000 less than Player B. Because now you can get Player C and turn around and with the savings draft Player D, who you also covet. 
• Maybe the Twins simply just love hitters. Both Gonzalez and Wilson have great hitter profiles. And it's worked for them. It's a little different at #5, but drafting the Spencer Steers and Christian Encarnacion-Strands of the world have given the organization great trade assets.

But my question is this... if drafting solid hitters give you the best chance at collecting tradable assets, at what point do you realize that Paul Skenes (or whoever falls to #5) has the most value to the rest of the league and is the best tradable asset you could acquire? 

I think that it might be true that the Twins do have Jacob Gonzalez in their Top 5, but at the expense of Max Clark, not Paul Skenes. I'd stack the "here's my guess at the Twins draft board" like this:

1) Crews
2) Langford
3) prep outfielder Walker Jenkins
4) Skenes
5) Gonzalez

What do you think? (Aside from "I think the Twins are overthinking this"?)

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[weitz41]

It would be disappointing if the Twins passed on Skenes for position player not named Crews or Langford. That said, If Wes Johnson couldn't convince the FO to take Skenes. There must be a really good reason. That's the advantage we have being a fan and not an employee of a baseball team.

[gman]

I'd take Skenes if he were available. Sometimes you can draft for greatest organizational need.

[twins_89]

I really hope the Twins take whichever of the consensus top 5 is available when they pick. It has not gone well for the Falvey when he's gone against the general opinion in the 1st round (i.e. Cavaco and Sabato). I've been impressed with the Twins drafting in later rounds, but at the top of the draft I trust the industry far more than the Minnesota front office.

[LastOnePicked]

10 minutes ago, twins_89 said:

I really hope the Twins take whichever of the consensus top 5 is available when they pick. It has not gone well for the Falvey when he's gone against the general opinion in the 1st round (i.e. Cavaco and Sabato). I've been impressed with the Twins drafting in later rounds, but at the top of the draft I trust the industry far more than the Minnesota front office.

Exactly this. When this FO gets a little "too precious" or "too cute" with their decisions, they seem to go off the rails. They are perhaps not as smart as they think they are. The picks you mention were even predictably bad at the time, and that's exactly how they've turned out.

[dogsday]

 The Max Clark link is to a baseball reference page for a relief pitcher at Washburn University in Topeka, KS. Pirates should be able to save a ton with that pick. 🙃

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, weitz41 said:

It would be disappointing if the Twins passed on Skenes for position player not named Crews or Langford. That said, If Wes Johnson couldn't convince the FO to take Skenes. There must be a really good reason. That's the advantage we have being a fan and not an employee of a baseball team.

To pass on Skenes they would have to have something from Wes bordering on arm falling off.  It’s also reasonable to assume they would have the best insights from Wes but they also might not be on speaking terms. Who knows. 

I’m of the asset value thought process and there would be no greater value than Skenes at #5 unless he has a metal plate in his shoulder. Trade value would be off the charts if they wanted to go that way. 

[Mike Sixel]

If Skenes drops to five, I have no idea what teams are doing.....and if he drops to 6, I'll be very disappointed. He could probably be in the bullpen this year in MN.....and then AA to start 2024 as a starter.

[tony&rodney]

I'm still hoping for Max Clark. He has present skills and fantastic upside. Remember that the Twins didn't think much of Corbin Carroll. I would hope the Twins take a player with a chance to play in the MLB All Star Game and not somebody who projects a s a pretty good hitter. I liked Steer and CES two years ago but neither projects as a Julio Rodriguez. Passing on Skenes is improbable. I watched several of his games and he looks tough. Still, I'm totally confounded by how the Twins management works. Confounded, not upset in any way.

[TwinkieFan4life]

49 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Exactly this. When this FO gets a little "too precious" or "too cute" with their decisions, they seem to go off the rails. They are perhaps not as smart as they think they are. The picks you mention were even predictably bad at the time, and that's exactly how they've turned out.

Couldn't this have been said of Royce at #1? 

[Rik19753]

I have absolutely no knowledge about college players, but if Skenes is "the best college pitching prospect in recent memory", why is there even a possibility that he is going to be available at No.5? Are the 4 other hitters "the best hitting prospects in recent memory"?

Also, while I understand the idea that you'd like to draft the player that has the most value to other teams, in reality I don't think drafts work that way. I have a hard time thinking that the any FO will prioritize a player's trade value when they are making a top 5 pick, no matter how badly they may want a trade chip. 

[DocBauer]

I understand the Twins general belief and philosophy of drafting bats before arms. We've discussed it many times before, so no need to rehash it again here.

But we're talking the #5 pick, not somewhere in the teens or twenties. But even then, they grabbed Petty 2yrs ago with their 1st round pick. So if Skenes was really available at #5...and I don't see it...I think they would jump at the chance!

No offense to any media "expert", but they are looking for readers/viewers, wouldn't mind creating conversation, and are trying to play GM for every team in the league. But if the other 4 teams wanted to pass on what appears to be a special arm, I have no doubt the Twins would JUMP!

As far as Gonzalez goes, every team scouts all the top players and have their preferences. Someone like myself reads mocks and some different reports, and forms enough of an opinion to almost  e dangerous, lol. But all the reports I've read so far on Gonzalez has him as a fine SS...who might stick there...with decent hit and power tools, and average speed. That just doesn't sound like a #5 pick to me, especially when I have Correa at SS, Lewis and Lee who can play it, and a handful of pretty interesting A level prospects that might be ready in a few years. He sounds like a solid, safe type of pick without the upside that you'd want to grab at #5. I'd rather grab Dollander, the proposed #1 preseason pick who has great stuff but has struggled with control for some reason here in 2023. 

[Doctor Gast]

Twins tends to lean toward college bats. I'd take Skenes if anything trade bait if they think he won't materialize. My 1st pick surely wouldn't be SS Gonzalas.

[chpettit19]

I know crazy things happen at the top of the draft, and draft dollar games are played, but if they go outside the general public's declared elite top 5 they better be right. These prognosticators are wrong all the time, and we shouldn't take their word as gold, but when every publicly available ranking system has the same 5 guys in some order, and they're all talked about as being likely 1-1 picks in almost any other year, you better have a really good reason to go outside them. And it being a HS hitter doesn't seem like a good reason to me when they took Lewis 1-1, and Cavaco earlier than predicted in the first. 

You got lucky in the first ever draft lottery and jumped into the top 5 in a 5 superstar draft. If you take someone else, but the guy(s) in the top 5 you passed on turns into a hall of famer(s) it doesn't matter if you picked an all star or a complete bust. You can't pass on the top 5 guy and have whoever you pick be worse than them, unless you also completely nail your bonus pool money manipulation. If you come away with multiple all stars you're good. But passing on the elite prospect, and having them turn out to be better than who you picked will not go over well with fans. Especially if it's one of the college guys and they're in the majors quickly.

As far as Skenes goes, though, I'd be awfully surprised if he got beyond Texas at 4. It feels like they'd love to have him in their bullpen for the playoff push this year before putting him in camp with deGrom next year and letting him learn.

[Roaddog]

I love Noble Meyer, but I just can't see him at 5. Just don't want another SS this high.

[Dman]

I haven't heard anything connecting the Twins to Max Clark.  Either they don't like something, don't think he will make it to them or they are setting up a smoke screen hard to say.  I agree with the OP that Clark seems the odd man out for them at number 5.  

I agree with the OP on the top three as they all have power\hit profiles with a good eye at the plate to boot.  They all run pretty well and have solid arms so they have defensive value.  The Twins love those types of hitters but I could see all of them gone before pick number 5.

Gonzalaz has been called the best Shortstop in this class by some scouts granted with his 40 rated run time he is not a burner and likely ends up at third or maybe second. Minnesota doesn't have enough 2nd\third basemen at the big league level or the minors so grabbing another is imperative?  Actually the system is loaded with guys like this.  Jullien, Lee, Lewis, Castro, Miranda, Polanco, Schobel, Ross, Ortega if you want to include Helman than him too.  It is an area of great strength so much so they traded away Arraez and Steer to make room.  Grabbing Gonzalaz over Clark would be a huge head scratcher IMO.  

I get Gonzalaz has some real nice numbers.  More walks than K's. Hits the ball to all fields, has power and apparently he is a metrics darling with the bat and also a slow runner.  Lot's of things to like but who gets bumped to play him?  Also he has actually been moving down draft boards not up.  He is the 8 to 12 area right now. I don't have all the info but I don't like the pick at number 5.

If Skenes were to fall to 5 it seems like a best case scenario for this team.  He is  a power pitcher.  Likely a fast mover and a team need to boot.  Not grabbing him would seem incredibly odd considering he could go as high as number 2 and has been about as elite a pitcher as you can find.  If Skenes is there at 5 he has to be the pick.  There will still be good bats down the board that the Twins can pick next anyway.

Will have to wait and see how the board falls but if Skenes makes it to number 5 that would be the ideal pick to me.

 

[tony&rodney]

I cannot find the article that involved a discussion among a number of long term scouts who suggested that the top five this year are all better prospects than all but Adley Rutschman in the last ten years and they expect them to be stars.. Time will tell on those predictions.

[Twinkies are for eating]

Thalvey and Levine need to start acting like their jobs are on the line. Which player can have the biggest, quickest major league impact. Skenes. If we draft him and he’s as good as advertised, he may just save their jobs. Can you imagine this fan base if Skenes is available and they pass and he turns into a generational starting pitcher?!!!

[Twinkies are for eating]

As good as the major league starting rotation has been, there are only two starters who have a future with this club. Lopez and Ryan. And both are starting to come back to earth. I don’t know how you pass on pitching.

[tony&rodney]

20 minutes ago, Twinkies are for eating said:

As good as the major league starting rotation has been, there are only two starters who have a future with this club.

I take it you are not fans of Ober and Varland? They seem like fair #4 and #5 starting pitchers for most any MLB team.

[I wish the twins were good]

Man I really hope they can get out of their own way with this. Just take one of the top 5 you aren't smarter than everybody else!

[Jocko87]

5 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I understand the Twins general belief and philosophy of drafting bats before arms. We've discussed it many times before, so no need to rehash it again here.

But we're talking the #5 pick, not somewhere in the teens or twenties. But even then, they grabbed Petty 2yrs ago with their 1st round pick. So if Skenes was really available at #5...and I don't see it...I think they would jump at the chance!

No offense to any media "expert", but they are looking for readers/viewers, wouldn't mind creating conversation, and are trying to play GM for every team in the league. But if the other 4 teams wanted to pass on what appears to be a special arm, I have no doubt the Twins would JUMP!

As far as Gonzalez goes, every team scouts all the top players and have their preferences. Someone like myself reads mocks and some different reports, and forms enough of an opinion to almost  e dangerous, lol. But all the reports I've read so far on Gonzalez has him as a fine SS...who might stick there...with decent hit and power tools, and average speed. That just doesn't sound like a #5 pick to me, especially when I have Correa at SS, Lewis and Lee who can play it, and a handful of pretty interesting A level prospects that might be ready in a few years. He sounds like a solid, safe type of pick without the upside that you'd want to grab at #5. I'd rather grab Dollander, the proposed #1 preseason pick who has great stuff but has struggled with control for some reason here in 2023. 

I've been saying for months that they will be taking 4-5 more shortstop types no matter who they have in the pipeline but I would not advocate it with the top two-three picks.  I love the idea of stocking up on players with lots of skills and ability to move around the diamond.  They make great trade chips, which are my favorite kind.

I do believe you have to look at your organization and draft in the top 5 to profile on your roster in some manner.  I'm not talking about taking a catcher 10 spots to high because you need catchers, I'm just using it as a tiebreaker between equalish talents.  I don't want a high school lefty corner outfielder because they grow on trees, unless its a generational talent.  If they are, they won't be there at 5.  I can fill that spot ten different ways.  Give me the pitcher or the RH outfield bat we need badly for use within the next two years. 

[twinstalker]

Isn't this all about the "Twins overthinking this?"  I'm not sure what we're supposed to comment on if not that.

[KBJ1]

God help us if the Twins take yet another middle infield prospect. It's all about pitching. A power hitting  outfielder with speed who can hit for average (5 tool guy, remember them?) Would be the only other option.

Lest we forget that every team in baseball passed on Aaron Judge - Twice!

[madtowntwin]

Another interesting article into the potential hierarchy and selection order atop the 2023 MLB Draft...Respectfully, three thoughts I have after sifting through all the comments. 1) How would Dollander look at the present time under Wes Johnson tutelage and 2) How much do the Twins covet a right handed bat that could play quickly thru the minors. Lastly,  3) Is any of this years pre-draft though process in light of anticipated prospect replenishment given the upcoming trade deadline. Give me the "Combo Platter"??!!

[Steve Lein]

15 hours ago, TwinkieFan4life said:

Couldn't this have been said of Royce at #1? 

Royce was a legitimate choice at #1. What people got upset about that year, was Hunter Greene was the top, "generational" pitcher available.

If the top college bats are gone at #5, and Skenes isn't, they have to take him, in my opinion. Unless they do know something. But I will not be overly excited about a Gonzalez pick in this situation. I want upside here and it sounds like he's more of a high-floor guy.

[jmlease1]

I have to wonder if the Twins don't generally prefer college players overall, not just bats? Last 2 drafts the only HS players they've taken in the first 10 rounds were Petty and Miller and they've already traded Petty.

I would be a little concerned if the Twins having been gifted a top 5 pick decide to ignore the CW if a consensus top 5 player were to fall to them. Of course, I seem to recall that at the time the draft order was announced that Max Clark was a consensus top 5 pick and the top prep prospect.

Skenes has been a beast at LSU this year after a very good season with Air Force. Hard to see them passing on him if available, unless they have some inside information that he elbow is about to explode or something.

[Jocko87]

27 minutes ago, Steve Lein said:

Royce was a legitimate choice at #1. What people got upset about that year, was Hunter Greene was the top, "generational" pitcher available.

If the top college bats are gone at #5, and Skenes isn't, they have to take him, in my opinion. Unless they do know something. But I will not be overly excited about a Gonzalez pick in this situation. I want upside here and it sounds like he's more of a high-floor guy.

Greene was a high schooler as well, off the charts risk for me.  Lewis was the much lower risk pick, if there can be such a thing at #1. 

I want high floor but high upside as well at #5.  For me I get the upside in position and the floor in talent.  In this draft its one of the two pitchers if Langford is gone.  Dollander is trending to be a value pick.  Dollander was Skenes before Skenes was Skenes.  I would certainly take him over one of the shortstops.

[dex8425]

17 hours ago, TwinkieFan4life said:

Couldn't this have been said of Royce at #1? 

Yeah, as I recall everyone thought Hunter Greene was the consensus #1 pick. He hasn't exactly been amazing, although some of that could be the Reds development. Brendan Mckay went #4 and he looks like a bust. Mackenzie Gore looks good, he went 3rd OA.  I'd still rather have Royce than any of these guys...

[dex8425]

18 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

If Skenes drops to five, I have no idea what teams are doing.....and if he drops to 6, I'll be very disappointed. He could probably be in the bullpen this year in MN.....and then AA to start 2024 as a starter.

Yeah, I think he goes 1, 2 or 3.