Week in Review: Wasted Opportunities Out West

[Nick Nelson]

Thanks to the rotation's unyielding excellence, the Twins continue to find themselves in a position to win almost every game. 

Unfortunately, too often they are failing to execute in those situations and thus letting winnable contests slip away, a trend that was epitomized last week in LA and Anaheim.

Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/15 through Sun, 5/21
***
Record Last Week: 2-4 (Overall: 25-22)
Run Differential Last Week: +0 (Overall: +43)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (3.5 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 42 | LAD 9, MIN 8: Cuzzi Strikes Again as Resilient Twins Fall in 12th
Game 43 | MIN 5, LAD 1: Ober Leads Way in Rare Win at Dodger Stadium
Game 44 | LAD 7, MIN 3: Pagán's Implosion Caps Late-Inning Meltdown
Game 45 | LAA 5, MIN 4: Comeback Falls Short as Jax Falters
Game 46 | MIN 6, LAA 2: Bullpen Bounces Back, Buxton Exits Game
Game 47 | LAA 4, MIN 2: More Stranded Runners and Another Lost Series

NEWS & NOTES

Things have not gone Nick Gordon's way this season. Seeking to firmly establish himself as a bona fide big-leaguer, he was off to a dreadful start at the plate and seeing very sporadic playing time as a result. Recently, however, with Michael A. Taylor battling some back pain, Gordon had been seeing more time in center, and showing signs of life offensively with a .750 OPS in May.

Then, on Wednesday at Dodger Stadium, Gordon fouled a ball very hard off his shin. He was able to finish the at-bat but came out of the game and was later diagnosed with a fractured shin. Brutal. The Twins haven't put forth a timeline yet, but we can expect Gordon to be sidelined for many weeks.

Also landing on the injured list last week: Jorge Polanco (left hamstring strain) and Jorge Alcalá (right forearm flexor strain). Joining the roster to replace this trio of sidelined players were Kyle Garlick, José De León, and Edouard Julien (who, interestingly, started at DH on Sunday with Donovan Solano at second).

It's obviously not great to see Polanco go down with a leg injury and Alcalá with an elbow injury after the way their 2022 campaigns went, but there is no sense at the moment that either issue is especially serious.

HIGHLIGHTS

For all the struggles we've seen from the Twins lineup thus far, the front office does deserve a lot of credit for some of the offseason moves they made to supplement the offense and its depth. Things could be worse. Two acquisitions that are paying off big-time at the moment are Joey Gallo and Kyle Farmer.

The new de facto leadoff man Gallo launched two more homers last week, pushing his season total to 11. He leads the team in OPS by nearly 100 points, and could potentially gain consideration for a third career All-Star appearance if he keeps this up. The 29-year-old slugger has been streaky as advertised, but the slumps haven't been overly drastic and the power output has been invaluable – as has Gallo's ability to cycle defensively between first base and outfield corners with grace.

Farmer has stepped into a new role as primary third baseman with José Miranda down in Triple-A (and, unfortunately, struggling there with a .143 average and no extra-base hits in nine games). Farmer had a monster week on the West Coast, going 9-for-24 with a homer and six RBIs against the Angels and Dodgers. Since returning from the IL he's batting .381 with nine RBIs in 11 games.

While I certainly wouldn't expect him to keep up at this rate – Farmer's current .836 OPS is 125 points higher than his career benchmark – the hot streak has come at a very opportune time. Despite missing nearly a full month after taking an HBP to the face, Farmer has provided more fWAR to the Twins (0.7) than any position player not named Gallo or Byron Buxton.

In the rotation, Joe Ryan continues to lead the way with one outstanding effort after another. He delivered his eighth quality start in nine tries on Friday, holding the Angels to two earned run in six innings. In typical fashion, he was an efficient strike-throwing machine, fanning nine and walking only one.

Somehow he only looks better and better as the season progresses. Ryan was a little homer-prone early on, giving up one dinger in each of his first four starts and resurfacing one of the main flaws to his game from last year, but Joe Cool has now gone five straight turns without allowing one. His overall HR/9 rate (0.64) ranks 13th-lowest among qualified starters. 

I know I keep saying this pretty much every week but ... the guy really looks like an ace. 

Bailey Ober's numbers since joining the rotation are no less impressive. By holding the Dodgers to one run over six innings on Tuesday, the big right-hander lowered his ERA to 1.78. In three May starts, Ober has struck out 18 and walked two over 19 frames, leading the Twins to a 3-0 record.

As a whole, the Twins rotation ranks second in the majors in fWAR, third in ERA, and first in Win Probability Added. This despite losing two-fifths of the Opening Day group. Just a powerhouse unit.

Behind the consistently strong work from starting pitchers, the Twins are finding themselves in position to win nearly every game, but too often they're coming up short because the offense and bullpen aren't holding up their ends of the bargain.

LOWLIGHTS

Another week, another series of back-breaking lapses from Griffin Jax in key spots. The Twins have remained committed to their plan of using Jax as a primary high-leverage setup man, while watching it backfire repeatedly. 

The past road trip saw Jax: enter in the eighth inning of a tie game Monday versus LA and cough up the go-ahead run, then enter in the seventh with a one-run lead on Friday in Anaheim where he gave up two runs and took the loss. It was, incredibly, his sixth L through the first team's 45 games of the season.

The meltdown at Angel Stadium (which I sadly witnessed live) was emblematic of Jax's season on whole: a combination of bad luck and self destruction that culminates in calamity. He retired the leadoff man, then gave up a cheap single to No. 9 hitter Zach Neto, and from there things unraveled: RBI triple, fielder's choice, walk, RBI single, removal from game.

The "snakebit" narratives are tired at this point. As I wrote last week, great relievers make their own luck and Jax is doing too much to set himself back. Too much contact, too many walks, too little of the steady execution needed for a guy called upon when games are on the line. 

In the last calendar month Jax has the second-worst WPA among all MLB relievers, although it should be noted the only pitcher below him on that list is Cleveland's world-class closer Emmanuel Clase. Perhaps there's some comfort to be found there. I'm not saying Jax is at Clase's level in terms of ability, but it's a good reminder that even great relief arms have bad stretches and that's not necessarily cause to abandon ship.

In other cases, there's a better argument for jumping overboard.

Wednesday afternoon, the Twins dropped their series at Dodgers Stadium on another bullpen lapse. Emilio Pagán followed up a bases-loaded walk with a grand slam to turn a 3-2 lead into a 7-3 deficit. To his credit, Pagán had actually been pitching pretty well this year – and dating back to late last year – in large part because he'd managed to cut down the walks and homers dramatically. 

Both of those historical weaknesses came back to the forefront on Wednesday, and if that's a sign of things to come the Twins are going to be in trouble. Unfortunately, with Alcalá joining Caleb Thielbar on the injured list and Jax offering little reliability at the moment, the team is short on alternatives. 

Speaking of unfortunate re-emerging trends from the 2022 season: Buxton's balky knee is barking again. Early last week he was showing signs of perhaps turning a corner, flashing a level of aggressiveness on the bases that we haven't seen much this year. On Tuesday Buxton posted his first two-steal game since April of 2018.

The optimistic among us might've even started to wonder ... Is the knee getting better? Is he starting to worry less about it? Perhaps a return to center field could be in the offing?

Turns out, no. All of that increased activity for the knee apparently caused Buxton's chronic issue to "flare up," as Rocco Baldelli put it, leading to his being removed from Saturday night's game and sitting on Sunday.

Baldelli downplayed the severity of this "tightness" in Buxton's right leg, and it sounds like the DH has a good shot at avoiding the IL. 

Still, it's a sobering reminder: the knee issue that plagued Buck throughout last season remains a factor and his availability can't be taken for granted at any time. The entire season is going to be a precarious dance. 

For now, the Twins could sure use him back quickly because he was cooking before the flare-up (6-for-18 with a homer and two doubles last week) and the other ostensible centerpiece of the lineup, Carlos Correa, just keeps on looking overmatched in almost every at-bat. 

The past week at least saw Correa draw a bunch of walks to salvage some production, but he just isn't hitting and it's moving to the point of being legitimately concerning. Correa just can't seem to catch up and isn't making much progress toward that end. Against fastballs, he is batting just .189 – last year he hit .333 against them.

Pressure is building on the $200 million man to step up and start igniting this offense, which can't break the habit of flopping in big moments. Twins hitters astonishing went 0-for-9 with the bases loaded last week. The bats are playing a major role in setting Minnesota's bullpen up for failure.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Royce Lewis is coming in hot. His rehab stint moved up to Triple-A last week and Lewis got right to work, going deep three times in his first four games with the Saints. That includes a two-homer outburst on Saturday night at Columbus.

To say the 23-year-old looks ready would be putting it mildly – as encouraging as the power showing has been, even more so is the fact he's attempted four steals in seven minor-league games. It's no-holds-barred for Lewis and that could be great news for a Twins lineup desperately needing a sustained jolt. 

All that's really standing in the way now is time. Lewis has another week and a half before his mandatory 60 days on the injured list are up, meaning we'll all have to wait and stare longingly across the river until he can be called up on June 1st. As far as how he'll fit in at that point, Lewis has been alternating between shortstop and third base in the minors so it seems like he's lining up for the hot corner, bypassing Miranda in the pecking order. 

But with Polanco, Buxton, Gordon, and Taylor all hobbled to various degrees, I wonder if we might see Lewis start getting any rehab reps at second base, or even ... center field?

LOOKING AHEAD

The Twins return home for a third straight series against a California-based opponent as the Giants come to town, followed by the Blue Jays. Get ready to see a couple of old friends: LaMonte Wade Jr. is San Francisco's leadoff hitter and José Berríos is slated to start next Sunday.

MONDAY, 5/22: GIANTS @ TWINS – RHP Alex Cobb v. RHP Bailey Ober
TUESDAY, 5/23: GIANTS @ TWINS – TBD v. RHP Sonny Gray
WEDNESDAY, 5/24: GIANTS @ TWINS – RHP Anthony DeSclafani v. RHP Joe Ryan
FRIDAY, 5/26: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Kevin Gausman v. RHP Louie Varland
SATURDAY, 5/27: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Chris Bassitt v. RHP Pablo Lopez
SUNDAY, 5/28: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Bailey Ober

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[tony&rodney]

The week ahead finds the Twins facing left-handed starting pitching. Time to let Julien lead off with Kirilloff in the third hole and Larnach batting fifth. Maybe Castro can continue his decent play too. The offense needs to help out the pitching staff and find their groove. Both the Giants and Blue Jays are good teams and the weather looks agreeable for some winning baseball.

No real word on Buxton yet but Correa had some decent swings and fought through most of his at bats in Los Angeles. The Twins could use an exciting homestand going into the summer months.

[h2oface]

Jorge Lopez' Monday blow up heart break in the 12th and gifting a loss to Pablo today seems to get ignored.

Larnach just seems to give up on fly balls that look very playable.

Didn't Buxton use to slide gracefully?

 

[bighat]

Ugly week out west. Every time this team shows a little bit of fire with a gritty win, they follow up with a bucket of ice water to dampen the spirits. 

The bullpen is an target because they're pitching in high-leverage situations almost every night - but that's because the offense can't score runs. That's pretty much at the core of the issue here. 

The heat is turning up on Correa and rightfully so. Remember, most of the damage he did last year was in September when the Twins were woefully out of the race. The only good news is that he looks engaged. He's trying. Defense is good. That's something, I guess. 

Nick Gordon going down is likely going to mean we'll be seeing Trevor Larnach get another long, uninterrupted chance to claim a starting job. If he goes into another long, uninterrupted slump? Then what? 

Lewis waiting in the wings, eligible to come off the IL on May 29th, I believe. Let's hope the Twins waste no time and get him up here. He may become the best player on the team in very short order. 

 

 

[Nine of twelve]

Just pathetic timely hitting. Just pathetic. In spite of that the team played well enough to earn a split of the road trip and almost certainly would have had one if not for poor umpiring in the Monday game. And in spite of that we still find ourselves in first place by 3.5 games. So things are not all gloom and doom. Chin up, keep working. The division is ours for the taking.

[mikelink45]

38% of Joey Gallo's career hits have been home runs and that's more than anyone else in MLB history! - Of course he is allergic to regular base hits.  I like his power right now, but he is not an all-star - he is a Dave Kingman, Adam Dunn clone.

Sticking with Jax and watching the team lose games is not admirable.  Management needs to find ways for the team to win.

The bases loaded situation is pathetic.  The last one had Larnach K before the bases were loaded and then Gallo and Jeffers K with them loaded.  Contact is all that is needed to give us a chance to score, a grand slam is not necessary. 

Correa needs to be lower in the lineup (Gallo too). 

And let's hope Jorge Lopez is not turning the wrong corner.  Our BP is looking weaker and weaker. 

[Blyleven2011]

Part of the bargain  is giving the fans entertaining baseball  , it hasn't been happening  as we wait for the ball to be put in play and they continue not come up in the clutch ...

I used to make calls when someone would hit a homerun in the past , I haven't called a homerun in a few years cause we don't truly have a consistent homerun hitter in the lineup  ...

We also don't have any consistent batters hitting singles or doubles  ...

If your going to strikeout in double digits every game , why don't they try and match that number with the same amount of hits ...

I watched a game between Baltimore and Toronto  this past weekend  and no hitter was batting under  .235  , it was a good game and Baltimore prevailed  ...

[tony&rodney]

Situational hitting is important and how a player approaches a pitch can and should change within an at bat. Ahead in the count it makes sense to be looking to drive the ball, while a two strike strategy must strive for contact. Miguel Sano became useless when he just swung for the fences on every pitch. Gallo has had some luck but sure takes a big cut on every pitch and looks very vulnerable to any pitch up in the strike zone. The flatter swing path has a better chance and baseball players can adapt. Both Correa and Buxton seem to change their swings with two strikes but are also both struggling with low batting averages. Batting average, slugging, and OPS are useful for evaluation only to some extent. We heard Dick Bremer state that Justin Morneau had 74 sacrifice fly balls in his career. Joey Gallo has 3. I believe that the Twins batters are working hard to be successful in their at bats, but a shift to conceding power for contact with two strikes is needed as difficult as that may be.

[weitz41]

It's about time for an Oakland and Colorado road trip...

Obviously not the best results but they had a chance to with almost every game against good to really good teams.

[MABB1959]

Are we going to hear soon that Correa has been hurting/injured all season?    Hoping Buxton is not headed for the IL.  Buxton is 51st in the AL for RBI's Correa only 33rd and 45th for HR's.  Is it unreasonable or should we expect them to produce more?

Could they let the starters to longer?  Seems the starters could be better going through the 7th or at least not worse. Someone also mentioned we don't have a true DH and that is hurting.

They may win the Division but will we just have another play-off disappointment? 

Hard to be positive and I think I need to keep my expectations down.  

 

 

 

 

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Situational hitting is important and how a player approaches a pitch can and should change within an at bat. Ahead in the count it makes sense to be looking to drive the ball, while a two strike strategy must strive for contact. Miguel Sano became useless when he just swung for the fences on every pitch. Gallo has had some luck but sure takes a big cut on every pitch and looks very vulnerable to any pitch up in the strike zone. The flatter swing path has a better chance and baseball players can adapt. Both Correa and Buxton seem to change their swings with two strikes but are also both struggling with low batting averages. Batting average, slugging, and OPS are useful for evaluation only to some extent. We heard Dick Bremer state that Justin Morneau had 74 sacrifice fly balls in his career. Joey Gallo has 3. I believe that the Twins batters are working hard to be successful in their at bats, but a shift to conceding power for contact with two strikes is needed as difficult as that may be.

I don't remember if it was Bremer or Morneau who told of Rod Carew asking a batter if the batter makes any changes to his approach when he gets 2 strikes on him. The batter said he chokes up a little and widens his stance, so he has a better chance of hitting the ball. Carew then said: "Why don't you do that for every pitch?"

[saviking]

I only have two words: Basses Loaded 😒

[Vanimal46]

Pretty much the same theme every week. Starting pitching good, offense bad, bullpen somewhere in between. I don’t find this formula to be entertaining and haven’t been watching much Twins baseball in the last month. 

[Ricky Vaughn]

When they failed to score in the 7th yesterday I said well that was their chance, its over. Got up and went outside to do a little yard work. unfortunately I was right.

[jccracraft]

No mention of Kirilloff? He continues to hit pretty well.

[Riverbrian]

When it comes to balls and strikes... I have been an advocate of automation for quite some time and I will remain an advocate. 

I think the umpires as a whole do an amazing job so I don't blame them because getting those calls right is nearly impossible. 

In the case of Kirilloff against the Dodgers with the bases loaded... there was nothing that Alex could do. The 1st and 3rd strikes of that at bat were quite a ways off the plate both inside and outside. Even if in protection mode with two strikes... you don't swing at those pitches. The ump rung him up.  

In the case of Jeffers yesterday. Ryan kinda cooked his own goose by swinging at that slider on the very 1st pitch. That very first pitch started low and broke down and away landing in the dirt somewhere around the chalk line in the opposite batters box.

You can't swing at that pitch, especially on the first pitch and especially when you look at the trajectory of that pitch. It was low to begin with. There was nothing that should have triggered a swing and by doing so he put himself in a hole.    

The next two pitchers were also low sliders... Most pitchers are going to throw it again if you swing at the first one wildly. The 2nd strike was a called strike on a low slider that clipped the bottom of the zone. I assume that Jeffers learned his lesson after he swung at the 1st one so he let the 2nd one go and he probably wouldn't have done anything with it. He is now down 0-2 should be 1-1 and the third pitch was another low slider that looked exactly like the first one. Why not... the first two sliders produced two strikes. 

The 4th pitch... Outside fastball out of the zone. Strike three. Yeah the ump missed it but Jeffers got himself in that position with that first swing on a crap pitch. 

The Twins have to get the pitchers back into the zone. The chasing is the primary issue with this offense in my opinion.  

If he doesn't swing at that first pitch. He probably doesn't see the 2nd and 3rd sliders because the catcher doesn't want to go down 2-0 with the bases loaded. Since he was chasing... might as well go to that same pitch. 

With that said... hitting is a hard job. The balls are moving. 

[Nick Nelson]

5 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

38% of Joey Gallo's career hits have been home runs and that's more than anyone else in MLB history! - Of course he is allergic to regular base hits.  I like his power right now, but he is not an all-star - he is a Dave Kingman, Adam Dunn clone.

Not sure this is helping you make your point. Dave Kingman was a 3x All-Star, and Adam Dunn 2x. We've gotta get past the idea that there's only one model for successful offensive production.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

Not sure this is helping you make your point. Dave Kingman was a 3x All-Star, and Adam Dunn 2x. We've gotta get past the idea that there's only one model for successful offensive production.

I went away from the site and then had to come back.  Adam Dunn and Dave Kingman were bad players but had some good seasons.  Kingman was an all-star for the Mets in 1976 with a line of 238/286/508 - someone had to represent the Mets.  In 1978 he hit 288/343/623 - much more of an all-star and again the next year 278/329/522 and those were his best years and better than Gall0 - you are right.  But his lifetime was 236/302/478 - more Gallo like and for the most part I would not have wanted him on my team.  

Dunn was an all-star twice, once at age 22 249/400/454 and again age 32 when someone had to rep the White Sox.  Would we really consider 204/333/468 and all-star?  All star positions are often not good indications of value since every team had to be  represented.  His career 237/364/490 does look better than Gallo so I see your point. 

Gallo's 211/328/578 has a higher slugging pct, but in the past few years everyone does. 

The BR comps through age 28 are:

1. Dave Kingman (920.5) - I guess I was on target there. 
2. Kyle Schwarber (915.5) - I can't see it
3. Miguel Sanó (911.3)- we did not like him enough to keep him.
4. Joc Pederson (909.7) - ???
5. Rob Deer (899.5) - Another player I could do without.
6. Michael Conforto (886.8)
7. Nick Swisher (886.0)
8. Max Kepler (880.6) - wow - I believe we write about wanting to get rid of him every year.

 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I went away from the site and then had to come back.  Adam Dunn and Dave Kingman were bad players but had some good seasons.  Kingman was an all-star for the Mets in 1976 with a line of 238/286/508 - someone had to represent the Mets.  In 1978 he hit 288/343/623 - much more of an all-star and again the next year 278/329/522 and those were his best years and better than Gall0 - you are right.  But his lifetime was 236/302/478 - more Gallo like and for the most part I would not have wanted him on my team.  

Dunn was an all-star twice, once at age 22 249/400/454 and again age 32 when someone had to rep the White Sox.  Would we really consider 204/333/468 and all-star?  All star positions are often not good indications of value since every team had to be  represented.  His career 237/364/490 does look better than Gallo so I see your point. 

Gallo's 211/328/578 has a higher slugging pct, but in the past few years everyone does. 

The BR comps through age 28 are:

1. Dave Kingman (920.5) - I guess I was on target there. 
2. Kyle Schwarber (915.5) - I can't see it
3. Miguel Sanó (911.3)- we did not like him enough to keep him.
4. Joc Pederson (909.7) - ???
5. Rob Deer (899.5) - Another player I could do without.
6. Michael Conforto (886.8)
7. Nick Swisher (886.0)
8. Max Kepler (880.6) - wow - I believe we write about wanting to get rid of him every year.

 

That 1976 season was good for a 126 wRC+, or 129 OPS+. That's kind of Nick's point. He was 26, or 29, percent better than the average hitter that year. Not an MVP candidate, but better than any season Jorge Polanco has ever had. In 78 and 79 he was indeed better with 131 and 145 wRC+, and 132/146 OPS+. Those are all star worthy years. For his career he had a 113 wRC+, and 115 OPS+. 

Adam Dunn had a 125 wRC+, and 121 OPS+, his first all star season. 115 wRC+, and 114 OPS+, his 2nd. First season was worthy, second wasn't. But he also had seasons of 142/147 wRC+/OPS+ (2004), 138/141 (2005), 135/136 (2007), 130/131 (2008), 142/144 (2009), 136/138 (2010). Career wRC+ of 123, OPS+ of 124. 

Plenty of people don't like their style of hitting, but in comparative, overall hitting production stats both of those guys had some really nice years, and were solidly above average bats for their careers.

[Minny505]

It doesn't need to be permanent, but Correa getting moved to 6th in the order, until he gets the bat going again, seems overdue.

[Woof Bronzer]

3 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

 We've gotta get past the idea that there's only one model for successful offensive production.

Ok, but I'd say it's legitimate to question whether All Star game appearances is the best measure of "successful offensive production".  Wasn't Ron Coomer an All Star once?

[mikelink45]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

That 1976 season was good for a 126 wRC+, or 129 OPS+. That's kind of Nick's point. He was 26, or 29, percent better than the average hitter that year. Not an MVP candidate, but better than any season Jorge Polanco has ever had. In 78 and 79 he was indeed better with 131 and 145 wRC+, and 132/146 OPS+. Those are all star worthy years. For his career he had a 113 wRC+, and 115 OPS+. 

Adam Dunn had a 125 wRC+, and 121 OPS+, his first all star season. 115 wRC+, and 114 OPS+, his 2nd. First season was worthy, second wasn't. But he also had seasons of 142/147 wRC+/OPS+ (2004), 138/141 (2005), 135/136 (2007), 130/131 (2008), 142/144 (2009), 136/138 (2010). Career wRC+ of 123, OPS+ of 124. 

Plenty of people don't like their style of hitting, but in comparative, overall hitting production stats both of those guys had some really nice years, and were solidly above average bats for their careers.

Sorry, I just cannot become a fan of any of them, but appreciate your stats

[chpettit19]

13 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Sorry, I just cannot become a fan of any of them, but appreciate your stats

I don't like 3 true outcome baseball like these guys bring either. Not many people do. Just saying, by industry accepted measures, these guys are/were productive hitters. 1 per team is my limit. Especially if they're a good base runner, and defender, like Gallo. Once you start stacking multiple of them in the lineup I get less accepting of them. I totally get not enjoying this style of hitter, though.