Week in Review: Wasted Opportunities Out West

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/15 through Sun, 5/21
***
Record Last Week: 2-4 (Overall: 25-22)
Run Differential Last Week: +0 (Overall: +43)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (3.5 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 42 | LAD 9, MIN 8: Cuzzi Strikes Again as Resilient Twins Fall in 12th
Game 43 | MIN 5, LAD 1: Ober Leads Way in Rare Win at Dodger Stadium
Game 44 | LAD 7, MIN 3: Pagán's Implosion Caps Late-Inning Meltdown
Game 45 | LAA 5, MIN 4: Comeback Falls Short as Jax Falters
Game 46 | MIN 6, LAA 2: Bullpen Bounces Back, Buxton Exits Game
Game 47 | LAA 4, MIN 2: More Stranded Runners and Another Lost Series

NEWS & NOTES

Things have not gone Nick Gordon's way this season. Seeking to firmly establish himself as a bona fide big-leaguer, he was off to a dreadful start at the plate and seeing very sporadic playing time as a result. Recently, however, with Michael A. Taylor battling some back pain, Gordon had been seeing more time in center, and showing signs of life offensively with a .750 OPS in May.

Then, on Wednesday at Dodger Stadium, Gordon fouled a ball very hard off his shin. He was able to finish the at-bat but came out of the game and was later diagnosed with a fractured shin. Brutal. The Twins haven't put forth a timeline yet, but we can expect Gordon to be sidelined for many weeks.

Also landing on the injured list last week: Jorge Polanco (left hamstring strain) and Jorge Alcalá (right forearm flexor strain). Joining the roster to replace this trio of sidelined players were Kyle Garlick, José De León, and Edouard Julien (who, interestingly, started at DH on Sunday with Donovan Solano at second).

It's obviously not great to see Polanco go down with a leg injury and Alcalá with an elbow injury after the way their 2022 campaigns went, but there is no sense at the moment that either issue is especially serious.

HIGHLIGHTS

For all the struggles we've seen from the Twins lineup thus far, the front office does deserve a lot of credit for some of the offseason moves they made to supplement the offense and its depth. Things could be worse. Two acquisitions that are paying off big-time at the moment are Joey Gallo and Kyle Farmer.

The new de facto leadoff man Gallo launched two more homers last week, pushing his season total to 11. He leads the team in OPS by nearly 100 points, and could potentially gain consideration for a third career All-Star appearance if he keeps this up. The 29-year-old slugger has been streaky as advertised, but the slumps haven't been overly drastic and the power output has been invaluable – as has Gallo's ability to cycle defensively between first base and outfield corners with grace.

Farmer has stepped into a new role as primary third baseman with José Miranda down in Triple-A (and, unfortunately, struggling there with a .143 average and no extra-base hits in nine games). Farmer had a monster week on the West Coast, going 9-for-24 with a homer and six RBIs against the Angels and Dodgers. Since returning from the IL he's batting .381 with nine RBIs in 11 games.

While I certainly wouldn't expect him to keep up at this rate – Farmer's current .836 OPS is 125 points higher than his career benchmark – the hot streak has come at a very opportune time. Despite missing nearly a full month after taking an HBP to the face, Farmer has provided more fWAR to the Twins (0.7) than any position player not named Gallo or Byron Buxton.

In the rotation, Joe Ryan continues to lead the way with one outstanding effort after another. He delivered his eighth quality start in nine tries on Friday, holding the Angels to two earned run in six innings. In typical fashion, he was an efficient strike-throwing machine, fanning nine and walking only one.

Somehow he only looks better and better as the season progresses. Ryan was a little homer-prone early on, giving up one dinger in each of his first four starts and resurfacing one of the main flaws to his game from last year, but Joe Cool has now gone five straight turns without allowing one. His overall HR/9 rate (0.64) ranks 13th-lowest among qualified starters. 

I know I keep saying this pretty much every week but ... the guy really looks like an ace. 

Bailey Ober's numbers since joining the rotation are no less impressive. By holding the Dodgers to one run over six innings on Tuesday, the big right-hander lowered his ERA to 1.78. In three May starts, Ober has struck out 18 and walked two over 19 frames, leading the Twins to a 3-0 record.

As a whole, the Twins rotation ranks second in the majors in fWAR, third in ERA, and first in Win Probability Added. This despite losing two-fifths of the Opening Day group. Just a powerhouse unit.

Behind the consistently strong work from starting pitchers, the Twins are finding themselves in position to win nearly every game, but too often they're coming up short because the offense and bullpen aren't holding up their ends of the bargain.

LOWLIGHTS

Another week, another series of back-breaking lapses from Griffin Jax in key spots. The Twins have remained committed to their plan of using Jax as a primary high-leverage setup man, while watching it backfire repeatedly. 

The past road trip saw Jax: enter in the eighth inning of a tie game Monday versus LA and cough up the go-ahead run, then enter in the seventh with a one-run lead on Friday in Anaheim where he gave up two runs and took the loss. It was, incredibly, his sixth L through the first team's 45 games of the season.

The meltdown at Angel Stadium (which I sadly witnessed live) was emblematic of Jax's season on whole: a combination of bad luck and self destruction that culminates in calamity. He retired the leadoff man, then gave up a cheap single to No. 9 hitter Zach Neto, and from there things unraveled: RBI triple, fielder's choice, walk, RBI single, removal from game.

The "snakebit" narratives are tired at this point. As I wrote last week, great relievers make their own luck and Jax is doing too much to set himself back. Too much contact, too many walks, too little of the steady execution needed for a guy called upon when games are on the line. 

In the last calendar month Jax has the second-worst WPA among all MLB relievers, although it should be noted the only pitcher below him on that list is Cleveland's world-class closer Emmanuel Clase. Perhaps there's some comfort to be found there. I'm not saying Jax is at Clase's level in terms of ability, but it's a good reminder that even great relief arms have bad stretches and that's not necessarily cause to abandon ship.

In other cases, there's a better argument for jumping overboard.

Wednesday afternoon, the Twins dropped their series at Dodgers Stadium on another bullpen lapse. Emilio Pagán followed up a bases-loaded walk with a grand slam to turn a 3-2 lead into a 7-3 deficit. To his credit, Pagán had actually been pitching pretty well this year – and dating back to late last year – in large part because he'd managed to cut down the walks and homers dramatically. 

Both of those historical weaknesses came back to the forefront on Wednesday, and if that's a sign of things to come the Twins are going to be in trouble. Unfortunately, with Alcalá joining Caleb Thielbar on the injured list and Jax offering little reliability at the moment, the team is short on alternatives. 

Speaking of unfortunate re-emerging trends from the 2022 season: Buxton's balky knee is barking again. Early last week he was showing signs of perhaps turning a corner, flashing a level of aggressiveness on the bases that we haven't seen much this year. On Tuesday Buxton posted his first two-steal game since April of 2018.

The optimistic among us might've even started to wonder ... Is the knee getting better? Is he starting to worry less about it? Perhaps a return to center field could be in the offing?

Turns out, no. All of that increased activity for the knee apparently caused Buxton's chronic issue to "flare up," as Rocco Baldelli put it, leading to his being removed from Saturday night's game and sitting on Sunday.

Baldelli downplayed the severity of this "tightness" in Buxton's right leg, and it sounds like the DH has a good shot at avoiding the IL. 

Still, it's a sobering reminder: the knee issue that plagued Buck throughout last season remains a factor and his availability can't be taken for granted at any time. The entire season is going to be a precarious dance. 

For now, the Twins could sure use him back quickly because he was cooking before the flare-up (6-for-18 with a homer and two doubles last week) and the other ostensible centerpiece of the lineup, Carlos Correa, just keeps on looking overmatched in almost every at-bat. 

The past week at least saw Correa draw a bunch of walks to salvage some production, but he just isn't hitting and it's moving to the point of being legitimately concerning. Correa just can't seem to catch up and isn't making much progress toward that end. Against fastballs, he is batting just .189 – last year he hit .333 against them.

Pressure is building on the $200 million man to step up and start igniting this offense, which can't break the habit of flopping in big moments. Twins hitters astonishing went 0-for-9 with the bases loaded last week. The bats are playing a major role in setting Minnesota's bullpen up for failure.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Royce Lewis is coming in hot. His rehab stint moved up to Triple-A last week and Lewis got right to work, going deep three times in his first four games with the Saints. That includes a two-homer outburst on Saturday night at Columbus.

To say the 23-year-old looks ready would be putting it mildly – as encouraging as the power showing has been, even more so is the fact he's attempted four steals in seven minor-league games. It's no-holds-barred for Lewis and that could be great news for a Twins lineup desperately needing a sustained jolt. 

All that's really standing in the way now is time. Lewis has another week and a half before his mandatory 60 days on the injured list are up, meaning we'll all have to wait and stare longingly across the river until he can be called up on June 1st. As far as how he'll fit in at that point, Lewis has been alternating between shortstop and third base in the minors so it seems like he's lining up for the hot corner, bypassing Miranda in the pecking order. 

But with Polanco, Buxton, Gordon, and Taylor all hobbled to various degrees, I wonder if we might see Lewis start getting any rehab reps at second base, or even ... center field?

LOOKING AHEAD

The Twins return home for a third straight series against a California-based opponent as the Giants come to town, followed by the Blue Jays. Get ready to see a couple of old friends: LaMonte Wade Jr. is San Francisco's leadoff hitter and José Berríos is slated to start next Sunday.

MONDAY, 5/22: GIANTS @ TWINS – RHP Alex Cobb v. RHP Bailey Ober
TUESDAY, 5/23: GIANTS @ TWINS – TBD v. RHP Sonny Gray
WEDNESDAY, 5/24: GIANTS @ TWINS – RHP Anthony DeSclafani v. RHP Joe Ryan
FRIDAY, 5/26: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Kevin Gausman v. RHP Louie Varland
SATURDAY, 5/27: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Chris Bassitt v. RHP Pablo Lopez
SUNDAY, 5/28: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Bailey Ober