Week in Review: Turning a Corner?

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/8 through Sun, 5/14
***
Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 23-18)
Run Differential Last Week: +17 (Overall: +43)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (3.5 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 36 | SD 6, MIN 1: Offense Goes Quietly, Bullpen Bows Out
Game 37 | MIN 4, SD 3: Twins Grind Out Win with AK Walkoff in 11th
Game 38 | MIN 5, SD 3: Correa's Clutch Double Secures Series Victory
Game 39 | CHC 6, MIN 2: Jax Stumbles as Bats Slumber Once Again
Game 40 | MIN 11, CHC 1: Five Homers Fuel Offensive Breakout Behind Ryan
Game 41 | MIN 16, CHC 3: Lineup Explodes for Sixteen Runs in Laugher

NEWS & NOTES

Last week in this column we mentioned that Jose Miranda might be on the hot seat with Kyle Farmer ready to be activated – even at a time where many were still considering Willi Castro the most likely roster casualty. Sure enough, when Farmer was activated on Wednesday, it was Miranda shipped to St. Paul, where he joined fellow core-fixture-turned-demotee Trevor Larnach in Triple-A.

Turns out they wouldn't be teammates there for too long. Larnach, who'd been sent down the previous week, predictably dominated minor-league pitching over four games (1.683 OPS) and he got another chance quickly when Max Kepler landed on the injured list Saturday with a left hamstring strain. It's Kepler's seventh trip to the IL since 2020, and a bummer for him, but a big break for Larnach, who – as we'll soon see – wasted no time in taking advantage of the renewed opportunity. 

In other roster news from the past week:

• Dereck Rodriguez was swapped out of the bullpen for Cole Sands, upgrading the team's long-relief strength a bit.
• Royce Lewis officially began his rehab assignment in Wichita, initiating a 20-day clock to return to the majors or be optioned. Meanwhile, right-hander Ronny Henriquez completed his own rehab assignment and was optioned to Triple-A.

HIGHLIGHTS

To call what we witnessed over the weekend an offensive breakout feels like a major understatement. The Twins lineup, which continued to look completely out of sorts in the early part of the week, went absolutely nuclear against the Cubs. Minnesota's 29 runs against Chicago set a new Target Field record for a three-game series, and that's WITH a paltry two runs scored on Friday.

On Saturday and Sunday, the Twins managed to pile up 27 runs over 16 innings with help from 31 hits, eight home runs, 10 doubles and eight walks. Making this outburst all the more impressive is that it didn't come against some scrub pitching staff – far from it. The Cubs have been among the best in the league. Entering the series they had allowed the fewest runs in the National League and second-fewest in the majors behind Tampa Bay. 

For a Twins lineup that had been blatantly underperforming, with several accomplished hitters slumping simultaneously, it felt like an onslaught of regression (or progression) to the mean, happening all at once. Hopefully some of these guys are ready to sustain it.

Among the players helping propel this long-awaited offensive outburst:

• The arrival of Alex Kirilloff has had every bit of the impact anyone could have imagined in their wildest dreams. His wrist looks healthy and he's doing it all at the plate. Kirilloff launched two home runs on Saturday and then added two more hits including a double from the two-hole on Sunday. On the week he was 8-for-19 with as many walks (4) as strikeouts. Through eight games he's slashing .409/.536/.773, joining the team in early May as a force of nature a la 2009 Joe Mauer. 
• Farmer also made noise in his return to the lineup, notching seven hits in 18 at-bats after being activated on Wednesday. Farmer is entrenched as the everyday third baseman, and as long as he keeps providing some offense to complement his outstanding defense, he'll make it easy for the Twins to be patient with Miranda and Lewis. In fact, if he keeps this up, Farmer might make it tough for either youngster to claim his job.
• At last Carlos Correa is showing signs of truly shaking off his early-season struggles. After an 0-for-5 dud on Monday dropped his average to .185, Correa rallied back to go 7-for-21 in the next five games, mixing in a homer and five doubles. The shortstop is beginning to reassert himself as a run producer, with 13 RBIs in 12 May games.
• Right on cue, Larnach returned looking vastly more confident and capable following a brief demotion. He drove in four runs on Sunday, with his three-run homer in the third inning helping to open the floodgates.

Joey Gallo's week was an odyssey of its own. The slugger had been mired in a brutal drought, with one hit in his previous 35 plate appearances before a solid 2-for-3 showing on Thursday. He took the day off against a lefty on Friday then started on Saturday against Cubs righty Hayden Wesneski, against whom he did this:

Statcast was slow to produce a measurement for the moonshot, leading many fans to conclude that Gallo had broken MLB's tracking system. (Turns out, the home run measured at a relatively ordinary 422 feet, but don't let that detract from the mythos of this instant-classic blast.) Gallo followed with another long home run on Sunday; he's got his OPS back up to .909.

The turnaround from the offense shouldn't cause us to overlook the continued excellence of the rotation, even if it's becoming almost routine at this point. 

Joe Ryan continued to look the part of an ace on Friday, improving to 6-1 while lowing his ERA to 2.16 on six innings of shutout ball with 10 strikeouts. He seems like a shoo-in for the All-Star Game already, barring a huge drop-off. 

Sonny Gray has been equally worthy of the "ace" descriptor, and he kept it rolling with one run allowed in 5 ⅓ on Friday. Gray's was the only start of the week that didn't qualify as a "quality start" even though most would deem it as such. Bailey Ober, Pablo López, and Louie Varland (x2) combined to allow eight runs in 24 ⅔ innings (2.92 ERA) with 27 strikeouts and five walks. 

LOWLIGHTS

The big low point of the week, without question, was the revelation that Tyler Mahle will go under the knife for Tommy John surgery, meaning his season is officially over, and likely his Twins career too. If that's it for Mahle as a Twin, it's been a frustrating ride, marked by repeated arm issues that he downplayed at every turn up until the very end. 

Since it appears the Twins will end up receiving very little value in the Mahle trade, we now have to wait and see how much the prospects they lost end up hurting them. Spencer Steer is in the majors and serving as Cincinnati's No. 3 hitter. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has a 1.077 OPS for their Triple-A affiliate. We'll see how it unfolds but these have quickly become two of the best young bats in the Reds organization.

To be clear, I'm not ripping the Twins for making the trade. Risk is part of the equation, when dealing with pitchers especially, and if you're too timid to play that game you don't end up with game-changing acquisitions like Gray, Ryan and López in your rotation. (Not to mention Jorgé López and Jhoan Duran in your bullpen.)

Still, there's no denying that the downside hurts in these scenarios, and we're experiencing the brunt of it now with Mahle. It will be interesting to see if the club tries to preserve some value by negotiating a mutually beneficial contract that covers him for his rehab and offers some team upside on the other end, as they've done in the past with Chris Paddack and Michael Pineda.

Even without Mahle, the Twins' rotation appears to be in very good shape, though it's not clear they can afford to suffer any more losses. The bullpen, meanwhile, is looking less infallible. 

Setting aside the consistently unimpressive work from Jorge Alcala and Jovani Moran in their lower-leverage roles, what's most worrisome is Griffin Jax and his repeated breakdowns in big spots.

Jax was slated to be a crucial piece in the Twins bullpen – the top setup man preceding a two-headed monster in Duran and Jorgé López. He looked up to the task early, posting a 2.84 ERA in seven appearances over the first two weeks while ranking second among MLB relievers in Win Probability Added. Since then, Jax has a 5.23 ERA and his WPA ranks fifth-WORST out of 191 qualified relievers. Quite the turn of fortune. 

And "turn of fortune" really feels like an apt way to describe it. Jax has been completely snakebit. On Tuesday he entered in the seventh inning of a one-run game against the Padres, and let two unearned runs cross home plate on his watch, torpedoing the team's chances. On Friday against San Diego he entered with a 2-1 lead in the seventh and left trailing 3-2, having allowed two runs on four hits – albeit few of them well struck.

It's convenient enough to explain away Jax's letdowns as the product of sheer random luck, and also not invalid – his 5.23 ERA over the past month comes attached to a 2.33 FIP, and most of his bad outings have reflected that kind of process/results disparity – but the great relief pitchers make their own luck. They minimize these kinds of happenstance flops by throwing strikes and missing bats. These are areas where Jax needs to improve if he wants to show he firmly belongs in the "great relief pitcher" category.

Even though both runs in Tuesday's outing were unearned, Jax issued two walks and threw just eight of 18 pitches for strikes. And prior to getting five swings and misses in his inning against the Cubs on Friday, Jax had induced just three whiffs on 74 pitches in his past five appearances.

TRENDING STORYLINE

I'm curious to see how the Twins shape the back end of their bullpen going forward. Although Emilio Pagán has acquitted himself nicely so far, Alcala and Moran look quite suspect, even for the lower-totem roles they are currently assigned. Cole Sands looks fine in the long relief role, but with all these close and extra-inning games, the Twins need a bit more depth in terms of bullpen arms they can actually trust for meaningful situations.

Unfortunately, Josh Winder appears to be removing himself from the conversation. He looked bad on his rehab stint, bad with the Twins, and now looks to be going completely off the rails. On Sunday he allowed seven earned runs in one inning for St. Paul, ballooning his Triple-A ERA to 12.00. Henriquez pitched earlier in that game and gave up three runs in 1 ⅓ innings, leaving him with a 10.80 ERA. 

Not the most promising signs from young arms that are supposed to be providing key depth on the 40-man roster. On the bright side, Jordan Balazovic – who started Sunday's game for the Sains – has been pitching pretty well after getting a late start like Winder and Henriquez. The 24-year-old has a 2.89 ERA with 26 strikeouts and just one homer allowed in 18 ⅔ innings, and I suspect he's moved ahead to the head of the line for a shot in this bullpen. That shot could come very soon.

LOOKING AHEAD

The Twins, much like me, are spending the week in California. I'll be catching a game in Anaheim next weekend, and I'm looking forward to checking another ballpark off the list. If you're back in MN, get ready for plenty of late-night action with the West Coast start times.

Of note: The Twins are slated to face three lefty starters – if Donovan Solano doesn't pick it up he might be headed out – and they'll get Shohei Ohtani on Sunday.

MONDAY, 5/15: TWINS @ DODGERS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Noah Syndergaard
TUESDAY, 5/16: TWINS @ DODGERS – RHP Bailey Ober v. LHP Clayton Kershaw
WEDNESDAY, 5/17: TWINS @ DODGERS –  RHPSonny Gray v. RHP Dustin May
FRIDAY, 5/19: TWINS @ ANGELS – RHP Joe Ryan v. LHP Reid Detmers
SATURDAY, 5/20: TWINS @ ANGELS – RHP Louie Varland v. LHP Patrick Sandoval
SUNDAY, 5/21: TWINS @ ANGELS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Shohei Ohtani