What Happens when Polanco and Kirilloff Return?

[Hans Birkeland]

Let's look at the scenarios.

Image courtesy of © Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

After a four-and-two start to the season, the Twins employ two lefty-swinging outfielders off to encouraging starts in Trevor Larnach and Joey Gallo. Nick Gordon and Max Kepler have had tougher starts and Kepler is already questionable to play with knee tendinitis. Meanwhile, the team has presumed lineup regulars Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff returning from injury, hopefully sometime during April. With the way the lineup has looked thus far, those additions are sorely needed. Both players returning in short order is no sure thing, but when they do, the Twins will have some serious roster decisions to make. Let’s run through some of the scenarios.

Polanco and Kirilloff both return and Trevor Larnach has continued to hit
On the surface, the return of a first and second baseman shouldn’t threaten the roster status of a corner outfielder, but it is widely believed that Kirilloff beginning the year on the IL is what opened a spot for Larnach to make the team, while Polanco’s delayed start opened a spot for Willi Castro. Castro figures to be the first to be sent down (he still has options) in any scenario.

But if Larnach is still productive, especially in the cleanup spot, the team will have to decide among a bevy of important players as to who remove from the active roster. Larnach can be sent down, but the other outfield options are all post-arbitration veterans. Cutting bait on Gallo or Taylor this early would be foolish, so the choice is then between keeping Kirilloff at Triple-A to prove his health, sending Larnach down, or making a trade.

One of Polanco or Kirilloff is ready to return, but the other isn’t
Probably the most likely scenario, as Polanco’s injury has had eight months to heal and hasn’t (although he started a rehab assignment this week), while Kirilloff still isn’t feeling one hundred percent after having a bone shaved down. It sounded like Kirilloff is closer since he played in minor-league games in spring training, but now it’s Polanco on playing in the minors. If only one of the two can go, then Castro will depart.

Both return with Larnach slumping
Larnach is probably sent down in this scenario, and at age 26, things can get complicated, like they did in Texas with Will Calhoun. Calhoun, formerly a stud hitting prospect of the Rangers acquired in the Yu Darvish deal, had a similar situation play out last year when after 44 unproductive April at-bats he was sent to Triple-A. The 27-year-old asked for a trade which the Rangers had no incentive to act upon since he was only in his third year of team control. They eventually did trade Calhoun to the Giants who released him after nine plate appearances. He is currently in the Yankees minor league system with a good shot to contribute this year, given that luminaries Aaron Hicks and Franchy Cordero are the ones ahead of him on the depth chart. 

Larnach has a better recent track record, but Calhoun has had a twenty home run season in the majors, so if things go south, the Twins may feel they are better off with Matt Wallner on the active roster. Twins fans should certainly hope not, since Larnach has been the team’s best hitter in the early going.

Polanco and Kirilloff return with an injury in the infield
Polanco and Kirilloff would slide right in, provided the injury isn’t to Correa, and Gallo would move to the outfield with Castro going to Triple-A. If Gallo and Larnach are outproducing Kepler at that point, you would figure that Kepler would start to lose at-bats and be more of a bench piece. If Correa is the one hurt, Kyle Farmer would take his place, with Gordon losing the most at-bats.

They return with an injury in the outfield
If the injury is to Gallo, Kirilloff replaces him at first and Polanco takes over for Gordon and Farmer, who resume being valuable bench pieces. If the injury is to Kepler or one of the center fielders, Gallo slides in, leaving Kirilloff and Donovan Solano to man first.

There are two injuries
The old 2022 special. This would probably need to be the case if one wishes to see Edouard Julien before June.

The tricky part about a team with a lot of veteran depth is that yes, injuries and underperformance are more easily managed, but if most everyone is available, it's tougher to find spots for your best prospects to get their feet wet, since vets need to be kept on the active roster. 

Looking ahead to the summer, imagine a scenario where three of Austin Martin, Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Julien and Wallner are healthy and playing well. It would likely take three significant injuries for one of them to get a real shot, and while that's a good problem to have, it could pose an issue for Wallner in particular, who at 25 is older than the other prospects, and looking up at five players on the active roster who play outfield and hit left-handed as he does. Of those, only Gallo (and maybe Kepler, who has a team option) figures to not be a part of the team next year.

The main takeaway here is that if everyone is available, this team has fourteen position players for thirteen spots. That is why it was presumed Larnach was the odd man out at the start of spring. But as we’ve seen over the first few games, the lineup figures to be a bigger question mark than the rotation and it looks very much as if Larnach is going to be needed if this team plans to contend. 

The old adage is that injuries have a way of sorting out these types of issues, but it's more complicated when there are five good-to-great minor-league hitting prospects knocking on the door. How the front office manages that potential logjam could have a big impact on whether the team contends for the entire Correa-Buxton window or if a few years from now we’re asking whether those two will waive their no-trade clauses.

For now, the team likes its depth and it likes players with options. So don’t be horrified to see Kirilloff optioned to the minor leagues rather than joining the big league roster when and if he is ready.

 

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[puckstopper1]

One possibility you did not mention is pulling the plug on Kepler.  His "slump" at the plate is now entering a 4th season.

If Kirilloff, Gallo and Larnach are all healthy and hitting, Max might find himself as the odd man out...

[ZachB]

I think you're overlooking a couple options that would slot in before cutting ties w/ Kepler, Gallo, or MAT. We're paying Solano $2m and he has his role hitting lefties, but he's mainly gonna DH or play first, slots Kirilloff will be more valuable at. It's too early to get worried about Nick G and his defensive versatility is certainly nice, but he's ineffective against LHP and has been useless early on offense.

[IndianaTwin]

IT's Mom: "We'll cross that bridge when we get to it."

Polanco started a rehab assignment yesterday. If nothing changes by the time he's ready to return, the likely move is to option Castro. If someone else is hurt by then, given their positional flexibility, it's an IL swap. 

AK hasn't started a rehab assignment yet. When that happens, they've got plenty of time to let it sort out. 

[JD-TWINS]

18 minutes ago, ZachB said:

I think you're overlooking a couple options that would slot in before cutting ties w/ Kepler, Gallo, or MAT. We're paying Solano $2m and he has his role hitting lefties, but he's mainly gonna DH or play first, slots Kirilloff will be more valuable at. It's too early to get worried about Nick G and his defensive versatility is certainly nice, but he's ineffective against LHP and has been useless early on offense.

Gordon has played 6 games and only half in 4 of those. He hit .289 - 8 HR - 28 doubles after April last year. No reason to bail on Nick 7 games into the year. Doesn’t need to play v. LH pitching.

Polanco for Castro is simple.

Kiriloff staying down after becoming healthy is highest probability. Doesn’t make sense to bring him up & hope he hits well when Larnach is already shining. After May, Larnach’s health & consistency will be proven or not. If he looks good & Kiriloff is ready to go we’ll cut Solano by June 1……,,maybe a case by then to let Kepler go instead but $9M & depth is tough to cut. Miranda can play 1B v. LH pitching!

Our record and general health will determine the actions!

An aside, really excited for Lee/Julien at 2B - Kiriloff at 1B - Larnach in LF - Walner in RF - Gordon in CF, next year v. RH pitching!!

[Beast]

You have to make Kirilloff earn it.  He looked great for a short time a few years back, but his numbers in the majors are largely poor.  You can’t just plug him in based on nothing more than a hope he can return to form.

Larnach has impressed me.  Gallo has arguably been our best player outside of Buxton. I’m not taking them out of the lineup for Kirilloff until they go completely cold or Kirilloff lights St. Paul on fire.

Polanco gets second base back without question.  He’s the most tenured and consistent players on the team, arguably.  He brings a combination of reasonably good on base and contact skills that we don’t have in anybody else.  He’s a key to this teams success.

I have no issue pulling time from Gordon or Donnie Barrels to get Polanco in the lineup.  They provide nothing of value aside from being warm bodies.  Barrels brings something against LHP, but not enough to be concerned about forcing him into the lineup.

I agree with a poster above.  If Kepler doesn’t figure something out at the plate soon, you can’t keep running him out there.  Maybe he’s an option to be replaced (although I don’t see that happening).

[Doctor Gast]

I'm pretty much agreement with the consencus. Polanco in, Castro out; Kiriloff will need to earn his spot back when he does since Larnach is proving himself then I'd let Solane go. When Lewis comes back it'll be a little bit more complicated but something will work it self out.

[dxpavelka]

Pretty sure the concern is gonna mostly be how to get 9 healthy guys to write on the lineup card each day.

 

[stringer bell]

I'm certain that Kirilloff will go on rehab assignment and that will be his proving ground as to whether he can help the team. The team believes he will hit if healthy (and so do I) and he'll have to prove it in the minors. If he's not driving the ball, they will option him. 

Larnach, to me, is a better player than Wallner right now--superior in the field, makes better contact, and evidenced by this year, much more selective. Maybe Wallner develops more skills, but he's not a finished product IMHO (despite his relatively advanced age for a rookie).

I'd like to see Julien, but my guess is he won't get recalled until he can be the DH. If it's May and Buxton is playing center field, that might be his chance.

 

[FlyingFinn]

First, I don't see everyone being healthy all at one time. If they are, what a great problem to have. Kirilloff will be at 1B, Polanco will be at 2B and Larnach will be OF/DH IMO.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

IT's Mom: "We'll cross that bridge when we get to it."

Ash's Mom: "We'll burn that bridge when we come to it."  (She was renowned for her malapropisms.)

Matt Wallner has his chance now to affect these discussions considerably.

[SanoMustGo]

Isn't it nice to have QUALITY depth?

 

[jkcarew]

I’m sensing that it’ll be quite some time before we have to ‘worry’ about Kirilloff coming back.

[PatPfund]

Polo for Castro, and I agree with your last sentence; I think Alex rehabs, then gets optioned to prove his wrists are actually healthy (short of injury need on the Twins).

Unless Max flashes back to 2019, I see zero chance the Twins pick up the option. He is who he is, got no interest on the trade market last year, and is playing himself into a veteran defensive bench player (which the Twins frankly don't need). No way they are cutting Gallo in the foreseeable future after the KC games, and no way they are cutting Taylor at all since he gives the team a way to keep Buxton in the lineup with no loss on D. (Doubt they'd release Max either, but I'd do that before moving on from the other OF options. Assuming Max actually comes back from his knee anytime soon.)

Larnach might have squeaked onto the roster, but he has quickly become a core roster player, his batting doesn't look flukey, and his increased walks cushion any batting average slump. I'm sure the Twins are planning on him long-term, so if he stays healthy, he's a Twin. Solano is a likelier cut (though he's also earning a longer leash with each strong game).

Probably the dream for the team is to keep as many assets healthy, and thereby have something to deal at the deadline

[mikelink45]

Trade Gallo 

[Spth]

12 pitchers?

[jmlease1]

It's a good problem to have, frankly. Castro will be the easy cut when Polanco comes back (or if Kirilloff dominates enough to demand a spot) and it's why he was kept over a younger player in the first place: it was always going to be a temp assignment unless someone else got hurt.

I don't see them cutting Kepler or Solano like some have suggested; if it gets to the point where Kirilloff is in AAA crushing it and no one else is on the injured list, or Julien is demanding a call up, etc while everyone is healthy and playing reasonably well the Twins are much more likely to make a trade with someone for either of those veterans. Gordon is still more likely to stick unless he totally collapses (he played well enough last year to have earned some rope) because of his positional flexibility.

Looking forward to having Polo back; I still think he's our 3rd best position player until some of the younger guys prove it otherwise. (Maybe Miranda, Larnach, or Kirilloff will pass him...but they haven't yet.)

[Nine of twelve]

5 hours ago, ashbury said:

Ash's Mom: "We'll burn that bridge when we come to it."  (She was renowned for her malapropisms.)

Sounds like she was not the sharpest bulb in the sky.

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I'm certain that Kirilloff will go on rehab assignment and that will be his proving ground as to whether he can help the team. The team believes he will hit if healthy (and so do I) and he'll have to prove it in the minors. If he's not driving the ball, they will option him. 

Larnach, to me, is a better player than Wallner right now--superior in the field, makes better contact, and evidenced by this year, much more selective. Maybe Wallner develops more skills, but he's not a finished product IMHO (despite his relatively advanced age for a rookie).

I'd like to see Julien, but my guess is he won't get recalled until he can be the DH. If it's May and Buxton is playing center field, that might be his chance.

 

Buxton DH’s against all LH pitching so Taylor can play CF……..the other DH (v. RH pitching) opportunities will go to Larnach - Gallo - Walner - Gordon depending upon health & who they choose to play OF.

If Kiriloff can’t play, I’d like to see Julien up in May to play 1B.

[JD-TWINS]

When Polanco is back at 2B they have a bunch of guys v. RH pitching:

Gallo/Kiriloff at 1B

Gordon in CF

Larnach in LF

Kepler/Walner in RF

Couple guys above won’t all fit on  roster…… one thing of those guys will DH

Catcher - SS - 3B are RH hitters 100% of our games.

[jorgenswest]

Depth is important. If at some point everyone is healthy a few major league ready players with be in AAA on options. It won’t be long before they are needed. Last year the ink wasn’t dry on Miranda’s option to AAA before Lewis was injured and Miranda was back with the Twins.

[miller761]

Another option is a trade. Could trade Max given his contract situation and organizational depth behind him. More than likely he will be gone at end of season anyway so a marginal prospect in return would be great.

[Jocko87]

6 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Trade Gallo 

 

[Jocko87]

5 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

It's a good problem to have, frankly. Castro will be the easy cut when Polanco comes back (or if Kirilloff dominates enough to demand a spot) and it's why he was kept over a younger player in the first place: it was always going to be a temp assignment unless someone else got hurt.

Castro having an option left makes everything better.  Probably part of why he got the spot in the first place, although it was nice he earned it with his play. 

[Karbo]

10 hours ago, Spth said:

12 pitchers?

That would make sense if they could stretch out a few relievers to 2 inning guys.

[dxpavelka]

20 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I'm certain that Kirilloff will go on rehab assignment and that will be his proving ground as to whether he can help the team. The team believes he will hit if healthy (and so do I) and he'll have to prove it in the minors. If he's not driving the ball, they will option him. 

Larnach, to me, is a better player than Wallner right now--superior in the field, makes better contact, and evidenced by this year, much more selective. Maybe Wallner develops more skills, but he's not a finished product IMHO (despite his relatively advanced age for a rookie).

I'd like to see Julien, but my guess is he won't get recalled until he can be the DH. If it's May and Buxton is playing center field, that might be his chance.

 

Larnach SHOULD be better than Wallner.  Otherwise it would have been foolish for him to make the team out of camp.

[ashbury]

14 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

Sounds like she was not the sharpest bulb in the sky.

She raised 3 good kids, and 3 out of 4 ain't bad.

[JD-TWINS]

17 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Trade Gallo 

Highest paid…….& after the “pressure cooker” of NY & LA last year & the subsequent mental collapse to .160 BA and less than 20 HR, I can’t imagine much of a market. If he has 20 dingers by the All-Star break he’s not going anywhere. No forward control either……doubtful trade bait.

Walner or the like are much more probable if we want quality in return.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

Larnach SHOULD be better than Wallner.  Otherwise it would have been foolish for him to make the team out of camp.

Through 8 games Larnach is the best day in, day out hotter on the team! Should have 2 more walks on poor calls he got struck out looking on as well.

[dxpavelka]

11 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Through 8 games Larnach is the best day in, day out hotter on the team! Should have 2 more walks on poor calls he got struck out looking on as well.

Thru two seasons 8 games is an eighth of his season.  Let's get him over that hump and see how he looks.