What Happens when Polanco and Kirilloff Return?

After a four-and-two start to the season, the Twins employ two lefty-swinging outfielders off to encouraging starts in Trevor Larnach and Joey Gallo. Nick Gordon and Max Kepler have had tougher starts and Kepler is already questionable to play with knee tendinitis. Meanwhile, the team has presumed lineup regulars Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff returning from injury, hopefully sometime during April. With the way the lineup has looked thus far, those additions are sorely needed. Both players returning in short order is no sure thing, but when they do, the Twins will have some serious roster decisions to make. Let’s run through some of the scenarios.

Polanco and Kirilloff both return and Trevor Larnach has continued to hit
On the surface, the return of a first and second baseman shouldn’t threaten the roster status of a corner outfielder, but it is widely believed that Kirilloff beginning the year on the IL is what opened a spot for Larnach to make the team, while Polanco’s delayed start opened a spot for Willi Castro. Castro figures to be the first to be sent down (he still has options) in any scenario.

But if Larnach is still productive, especially in the cleanup spot, the team will have to decide among a bevy of important players as to who remove from the active roster. Larnach can be sent down, but the other outfield options are all post-arbitration veterans. Cutting bait on Gallo or Taylor this early would be foolish, so the choice is then between keeping Kirilloff at Triple-A to prove his health, sending Larnach down, or making a trade.

One of Polanco or Kirilloff is ready to return, but the other isn’t
Probably the most likely scenario, as Polanco’s injury has had eight months to heal and hasn’t (although he started a rehab assignment this week), while Kirilloff still isn’t feeling one hundred percent after having a bone shaved down. It sounded like Kirilloff is closer since he played in minor-league games in spring training, but now it’s Polanco on playing in the minors. If only one of the two can go, then Castro will depart.

Both return with Larnach slumping
Larnach is probably sent down in this scenario, and at age 26, things can get complicated, like they did in Texas with Will Calhoun. Calhoun, formerly a stud hitting prospect of the Rangers acquired in the Yu Darvish deal, had a similar situation play out last year when after 44 unproductive April at-bats he was sent to Triple-A. The 27-year-old asked for a trade which the Rangers had no incentive to act upon since he was only in his third year of team control. They eventually did trade Calhoun to the Giants who released him after nine plate appearances. He is currently in the Yankees minor league system with a good shot to contribute this year, given that luminaries Aaron Hicks and Franchy Cordero are the ones ahead of him on the depth chart. 

Larnach has a better recent track record, but Calhoun has had a twenty home run season in the majors, so if things go south, the Twins may feel they are better off with Matt Wallner on the active roster. Twins fans should certainly hope not, since Larnach has been the team’s best hitter in the early going.

Polanco and Kirilloff return with an injury in the infield
Polanco and Kirilloff would slide right in, provided the injury isn’t to Correa, and Gallo would move to the outfield with Castro going to Triple-A. If Gallo and Larnach are outproducing Kepler at that point, you would figure that Kepler would start to lose at-bats and be more of a bench piece. If Correa is the one hurt, Kyle Farmer would take his place, with Gordon losing the most at-bats.

They return with an injury in the outfield
If the injury is to Gallo, Kirilloff replaces him at first and Polanco takes over for Gordon and Farmer, who resume being valuable bench pieces. If the injury is to Kepler or one of the center fielders, Gallo slides in, leaving Kirilloff and Donovan Solano to man first.

There are two injuries
The old 2022 special. This would probably need to be the case if one wishes to see Edouard Julien before June.

The tricky part about a team with a lot of veteran depth is that yes, injuries and underperformance are more easily managed, but if most everyone is available, it's tougher to find spots for your best prospects to get their feet wet, since vets need to be kept on the active roster. 

Looking ahead to the summer, imagine a scenario where three of Austin Martin, Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Julien and Wallner are healthy and playing well. It would likely take three significant injuries for one of them to get a real shot, and while that's a good problem to have, it could pose an issue for Wallner in particular, who at 25 is older than the other prospects, and looking up at five players on the active roster who play outfield and hit left-handed as he does. Of those, only Gallo (and maybe Kepler, who has a team option) figures to not be a part of the team next year.

The main takeaway here is that if everyone is available, this team has fourteen position players for thirteen spots. That is why it was presumed Larnach was the odd man out at the start of spring. But as we’ve seen over the first few games, the lineup figures to be a bigger question mark than the rotation and it looks very much as if Larnach is going to be needed if this team plans to contend. 

The old adage is that injuries have a way of sorting out these types of issues, but it's more complicated when there are five good-to-great minor-league hitting prospects knocking on the door. How the front office manages that potential logjam could have a big impact on whether the team contends for the entire Correa-Buxton window or if a few years from now we’re asking whether those two will waive their no-trade clauses.

For now, the team likes its depth and it likes players with options. So don’t be horrified to see Kirilloff optioned to the minor leagues rather than joining the big league roster when and if he is ready.