The Cedar Rapids Conundrum

[Matt Braun]

The Kernels have a shortstop duo and a decision. 

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

First, let’s meet Noah Miller. You probably already know him; after terrorizing Wisconsin prep pitchers with a .608 senior-season batting average, the brother of current MLB-er, Owen Miller, joined the Twins after being selected with the 36th pick in the 2021 MLB draft. A brief foray in rookie ball begat a mixed 2022 with Fort Myers, where he demonstrated excellent discipline at the plate and absolutely no extra-base authority whatsoever. He slugged under .300. Even Nick Punto thought he could use some pop. However, Fangraphs called him a near “complete model darling” in their evaluation prior to the 2022 season, and Miller remains one of Minnesota’s most promising prospects. 

Next, let’s meet Jose Salas. You probably already know him; after splitting time between Jupiter and Beloit as a super-youngster, Salas packed his bags, joining the Twins organization as a secondary—yet still important—piece in the Luis Arraez deal. His 2022 performance was unimpressive as all 19-year-olds are generally unimpressive, but Baseball Prospectus considers him a Top 100 prospect, and Fangraphs nearly placed him on their list heading into the 2022 season. 

The issue here is one of repetition: both players are shortstops; both will start the season with the Cedar Rapids Kernels.

Given the dearth of positional resources at play—there’s only one shortstop position, as far as I can remember—manager Brian Dinkelman will have an interesting problem on his hands: do you give Miller, the player with the better defensive chops the majority of playing time, or do you hand the reins to Salas, hoping that some extra in-game reps beef up his skill enough to push him into “guaranteed shortstop” territory?

The most obvious answer would be that each player will man a variety of positions, switching between infield spots in a fast-paced Abbott and Costello sketch where you’re never quite sure what is on second on any given day. Salas has minor-league experience at second and third base anyway, and while Miller does not, he could very likely move spots given his already impressive command of shortstop—the most range-testing position of the infield. Doing this would ensure playing time for the duo at shortstop, and give each player reps around the diamond, hopefully evolving them into “positionless” infielders, but in a good prime Marwin Gonzalez kind of way.

Perhaps the team chooses to keep things simple, giving Miller the position while Salas mans spots on either side of him. 

Or—and this is where things get really spicy—the Twins could opt to favor Salas at shortstop, instead giving Miller the chance to grow his defensive portfolio while the lesser glove-worker hones his craft. It’s a little weird, I know, but if you could reasonably assume that Miller can stay at short—as much as you can assume anything in baseball—it may make more sense to hand the position to someone else with the knowledge that Miller doesn’t need the time. When more freely available, Minnesota could then place Miller back at shortstop, allowing him to continue his outstanding work undisturbed. 

We’ve seen before, as well, that minor league positions are really just suggestions, not a cemented promise for a player. Alex Bregman played nearly every game at shortstop before joining the Astros, where he met one Carlos Correa and immediately shifted a few feet closer to the foul line. Minnesota’s own Nick Gordon played fewer than 30 innings in the outfield before travelling to Minneapolis; he now owns almost 1,000 major-league frames in the grass. 

And, not to add more to Dinkelman's plate, but Ben Ross, Tanner Schobel, Keoni Cavaco, and Ernie Yake are all capable infielders as well, leaving six players to account for four spots on the diamond. 

So who knows? The Kernels open their season on Thursday, but it will take a few months before their plan becomes clear. Whether they go with Miller or Salas as their primary shortstop is up to the future to decide.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Most scouting reports I've seen on Salas don't believe that he will be a SS in the majors. Stay there as long as you can, but he more likely will flip to 3b eventually.

As far as high A goes, I hope both of them have healthy and productive seasons. They both are exciting for different reasons.

[Dman]

I kind of figured they would round robin it.  They generally like pretty much all their guys to be able to play anywhere on the diamond.  I think it would benefit Miller the most to play somewhere other than short as he likely will need to know the other positions to break into MLB anyway.  I think Ross should get time at short as well so I see this as more of a three player rotation.

Salas hasn't looked great defensively at short so far as I believe he had several throwing error's last year.  Not sure short is going to be his "best" fit but they should keep working him in there as he is only 19 right now so plenty of time to establish good habits and maybe Miller can help him get in better position to throw.

It is very exciting to have two young shortstops at high A with lot's of potential.  Hopefully Miller starts hitting better and Salas defends better as they gain position flexibility. That would be a win, win for sure.

[nicksaviking]

Are there comps of offensively gifted MLB shortstops who struggled as badly as Miller has in Rookie League and low A Ball? I know it's only been two years and he's young, but if we're just looking at a glove-only player, I'm not going to push too hard. You can always sign a Jose Iglesias or Kiner-Falafa type cheaply as free agents. I'd make sure to defer to the higher ceiling prospects.

[TopGunn#22]

I would imagine that Miller will play 60-65% of the games at SS and Salas 35-40% until Salas has either shown the improvement necessary to earn a greater share of the time at SS or failed to earn it.  Playing Miller more at 2B would be good with a little 3B mixed in to enhance utility player capability.  

[Cap'n Piranha]

Seems to me there is an easy solution here—if Miller is considered more or less a lock to stick at short, reps there are less important than for Salas, for whom finding out if he can play at short is imperative.  Put Miller at second, Salas at short, and see whether Miller’s bat or Salas’ glove merits a promotion to AA first.

[Dman]

7 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Are there comps of offensively gifted MLB shortstops who struggled as badly as Miller has in Rookie League and low A Ball? I know it's only been two years and he's young, but if we're just looking at a glove-only player, I'm not going to push too hard. You can always sign a Jose Iglesias or Kiner-Falafa type cheaply as free agents. I'd make sure to defer to the higher ceiling prospects.

Personally I don't think he is going to stack up well against any offensively gifted shortstops first two years. The .211 average and weak slugging will be almost impossible for him to overcome.  That being said there are some good offensive signs in his 16% walk rate and only 24% K rate.  He seems to have decent bat to ball skills but he is getting weak contact as evidenced by his .287 BABIP and poor slugging.  He needs to find his way to harder contact and I think he will be OK.  This year will give us a better indication of whether he can overcome those weaknesses or not.

[Seth Stohs]

There are several players that I thought could probably stick in Ft. Myers for another season or half season. I almost wonder if they considered the hitting environment there and thought it might be better to get them to Iowa. 

[FlyingFinn]

Two thoughts - Ross and Schobel also play SS. They can pretty much forget about getting playing time there.

For a high school draft pick, I don't think Miller has struggled as much as some people are saying. He seems to walk enough that he has a good feel for the strike zone. We need to give the high schoolers a little more time. Now, Cavaco, he was drafted 2 years earlier than Miller, doesn't play defense like him, and has not shown much as a hitter. I can understand giving up on him.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd rotate them, as said above. But, Salas probably has more upside, so I'd defer to him some. Frankly, I'd move him to second right now, but that's not how teams roll......While I understand why, I strongly disagree. Put him at second where he can succeed faster, and make him more comfortable. It's also where he's more likely to make the majors and make money.

[DocBauer]

6 games per week and 6 games for a SS. 3 guys, if including Ross, and I would, to be split. It's not as simple as 2 games each, but it's not that hard either. They all play almost daily between 2B/SS/3B and you can even rotate SS enough for each to start 3 games every 3rd week.

There will be injuries here and there. At some point, there may be a promotion to AA for someone. 6 total infielders for 4 spots and 6 games per week shouldn't be that hard to get everyone a lot of playing time overall. You still have to hit and field regardless of being in the lineup at SS that day. Just rotate days and even weeks to make sure everyone is getting shared time there.

[Doctor Gast]

When I saw the roster for Cedar Rapids I saw the potential problem. I'm ready to move on from Cavaco, see if we can find a taker. Probably one will get bumped up to AA soon when Lee graduates, IDK who maybe Salas & he'll get his SS reps there but I don't think he'll stick there.

Miller is a stick at SS so I wouldn't mess w/ him & keep him there where his value is. I wouldn't sweat about Miller's hitting because most hitters have some trouble in low A (unless you are E Rod) due to the high level of pitching.

Once someone is promoted to AA; Ross & Schobel will play more often with some reps at SS

[Rosterman]

Both have three more seasons before needing a hard decision. And we can hopefully count on Correa to be the shortstop in the majors for those three, and probably four, seasons.

Either could step in when the time comes.

Bigger question is what is the depth chart for 2B and 3B. And where do guys like Lee, Lewis and Martin fit into the grand scheme of things, which means those three "studs" could be in positions for up to six seasons.

A guy named Acuna could also be in the shortstop mix come 5-6 seasons from now.

A good problem to have. But, yes, one will advance to Wichita if the Twins see fit to move Lee more quickly towards third base, for example.

[FlyingFinn]

Hey, as if this team doesn't have enough good players, Mike Paredes, who pitched really well last year, was added to the Kernels roster today.

[Shaitan]

Aren't rotations and timesharing pretty standard on A-ball rosters?

[rv78]

Why is this a conundrum? Does having Correa, Lewis, and Lee all able to play SS at the big league level very soon a problem? Sorry, I don't see it.

[Mike Sixel]

32 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Why is this a conundrum? Does having Correa, Lewis, and Lee all able to play SS at the big league level very soon a problem? Sorry, I don't see it.

Because who plays SS at this level, right now? That's the question......there are at least two good options, who both could be playing SS there every day. I'm not sure how this isn't a question.

[ashbury]

I'd try to spread the opportunities around at SS, but mostly I don't think this will be Dinkelman's strategic decision at all  The front office will lay out the playing time they want, and the manager will implement that plan.

[twinstalker]

Noah Miller was a vast overdraft, can't hit a lick, and will at his peak be a utility man in the infield if all goes as well as possible over the next several years.  So we're not really serious with the question, right?  It's like the Twins blew this one, and nobody wants to admit it.  Why is this harder to admit than Aaron Sabato?

[Nine of twelve]

This sounds like a good problem to have. Both players should probably be playing shortstop almost every day. Since fielding can be worked on just as well at low A as it can at high A it seems to me that Miller might benefit from some more time at low A if he's struggling at the plate. If he starts raking we can move him up and worry about making adjustments at that time.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Noah Miller was a vast overdraft, can't hit a lick, and will at his peak be a utility man in the infield if all goes as well as possible over the next several years.  So we're not really serious with the question, right?  It's like the Twins blew this one, and nobody wants to admit it.  Why is this harder to admit than Aaron Sabato?

Maybe because Miller is 20 and Sabato is 23 🤷‍♂️ 

[rv78]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Because who plays SS at this level, right now? That's the question......there are at least two good options, who both could be playing SS there every day. I'm not sure how this isn't a question.

I still don't see a problem. It's not like either one has to play SS every day. Can't they play 2B or 3B too alternating certain days at one or the other until one of them outplays the other at SS? Isn't that what the minors leagues is about? Finding out who is better at a position? Or should they wait until the next level or the majors to see if they have what it takes? This is just dumb.

[Mike Sixel]

5 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Noah Miller was a vast overdraft, can't hit a lick, and will at his peak be a utility man in the infield if all goes as well as possible over the next several years.  So we're not really serious with the question, right?  It's like the Twins blew this one, and nobody wants to admit it.  Why is this harder to admit than Aaron Sabato?

I always give up on 20 year olds........ Whether they overdrafted him or not isn't even relevant to who plays where at this point.

[jkcarew]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Maybe because Miller is 20 and Sabato is 23 🤷‍♂️ 

And I’m not quite ready to give up on Sabato yet either. But this has to be the year, IMO.

[Trov]

Personally, I do not believe the majority of growth in the field comes from games being played, but from practice time.  You can go a full game with only a few possible balls hit for you to field, but in practice you can get a ton of reps.  I fully expect Miller to get most of games at SS with Salas at 3rd.  Reports are Salas is already expected to transition to 3rd at MLB level.  Nothing wrong with some reps in games for Salas at SS, but that is not where he will grow most defensively. 

[FlyingFinn]

14 minutes ago, Trov said:

I do not believe the majority of growth in the field comes from games being played, but from practice time.

Agreed, to a point. You can't duplicate the game "pressure" or whatever you want to call it. When you fail in practice, it's easy to get the next ten. In a game, you may have lost the game for everyone on the team. A great example is Julien yesterday. Not known for his fielding (which is probably going to keep him from getting called up earlier), he boots a routine grounder with 2 outs in the 9th inning. 4 unearned runs later the Saints have a loss instead of a win. Now, how well does he bounce back from that?

[saviking]

What does it matter. With Correa/Lewis/Lee ahead of them ...

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, saviking said:

What does it matter. With Correa/Lewis/Lee ahead of them ...

Viable shortstops make great trade bait if you ever genuinely have too many of them.

[nicksaviking]

6 hours ago, ashbury said:

Viable shortstops make great trade bait if you ever genuinely have too many of them.

Yeah, probably even more valuable than starting pitchers.

My faith in Miller’s bat ever developing is very low, but these are better lotto tickets than corner players.

[Doctor Wu]

So many shortstops and so little games. 

Yes, it is a bit of a problem, not only at Cedar Rapids but at other levels too. But as others have suggested, some of these player should be able to, somewhat effortlessly. slide over to second or third base, or even do some outfield duty. Good athletes like these guys are somewhat resilient.