How the Twins Became Terrible at Baserunning - Preview

[Matthew Trueblood]

The last thing they’ll ever do is run you. The Minnesota Twins are the worst and most conservative baserunning team in Major League Baseball. That costs them runs and wins in direct ways, and it’s about to become an even more glaring weakness, but it’s also a microcosm of the broader problems with the way the organization scouts and develops athletes.

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Last year, the Twins were 20.7 runs worse than an average team on the bases, according to FanGraphs. That was the second-worst mark in MLB. They stole (or even attempted to steal) fewer bases than any other team. They took the extra base on hits at a below-average rate, and they made outs on the bases at an above-average rate. 

That has been a pattern throughout the Rocco Baldelli era, too. The team will point out that the whole league is moving away from steals and aggressive baserunning, and that may be true, but the Twins still stand out like a sore hamstring. Since 2019, the Twins have stolen just 134 bases. The Red Sox have stolen the second-fewest in MLB, at 191. The gap between Minnesota and Boston is larger than the gap between Boston and the Yankees, who have stolen the 14th-fewest over that span. 

Baserunning is a nuanced art, and when a team does it poorly, the field staff always gets the heat. In this case, though, it’s pretty clear that the front office is driving the systemic failure. It can be seen in the types of players the organization prizes. It can be seen in their pursuit of Carlos Correa, and their agreement with Joe Gallo. 

But maybe worse of all, it can be seen in the injuries that have hamstringed the organization repeatedly over the last few years. The Twins terrible baserunning is part of a broader strategy, and it isn’t just based in Moneyball thinking. It’s based on the type of athleticism the organization values. 

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[Whitey333]

Nice article on base stealing.  Too bad it was diluted by a self serving infomercial.

[Doctor Gast]

Agree 100%, FO has focused & hoarded big bats. Their strategy is hit HRs. To h*** with base running & defense. This philosophy has filtered into the drafting, coaching and obtaining players via FA. Yes injuries & fear of injuries has filtered it's way into the equation but still makes the game very boring.

[miracleb]

The averages didn't go up .......when we got rid of Eddie Rosario??

[old nurse]

If I remember the stat correctly there has to be an 80% success rate to come out ahead in terms of costing runs.  I don’t think Ryan left them much for base stealing threats. The FO was looking first for power. That has not yet materialized.  I don’t think they really have base running coaches in the system. They fired the guy who understood baserunning likely due to his connection to Ryan.

[Reptevia]

You should tell us it’s spam in the title. 

[Sparky1]

They would be more fun to watch if they would steal a base now and then or take an extra base.

[roger]

Expect our ranking is much different had Buxton been healthy.  Even when on the field, he wasn't running in fear of further injury.  Damn, it would be nice to have that young man healthy and playing like we know he can.

[Swing Batter-Batter]

When you don't have the speed, not stealing bases is understandable. What I don't understand is the base running mistakes. The Twins had a ton of them. Is it poor fundamental coaching or no coaching at all?

[Brock Beauchamp]

52 minutes ago, Reptevia said:

You should tell us it’s spam in the title. 

You mean the title that clearly states "Preview"?

[mnfireman]

56 minutes ago, Reptevia said:

You should tell us it’s spam in the title. 

It says Preview in the title

[mikelink45]

Buxton is too fragile,  They picked up Billy Hamilton, but his effectiveness was blunted by the fact that whenever he went in he was supposed to steal - no surprise he was 1 and 1 according to BR.  I am curious about the team speed.  Kepler looks like he should have speed (if he ever gets a basehit), Polanco, Gordon, Buxton all look fast and I don't know about Miranda.  Bleacher Reports says Tampa Bay has the most speed and they were number 11 in SB in all of baseball.   Cleveland was number three which fits in their profile of doing all the little things to win!  Love Francona.  Being number 30 is ridiculous.    

I just know that Rickey Henderson taught the league how valuable speed and daring can be.  Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners is showing he can do all the things needed with 25 SB and 28 HR.  His speed on the bases really made a difference to the team success. 

How do our prospects look?  What is their speed potential?  

 

[Nashvilletwin]

29 minutes ago, Swing Batter-Batter said:

When you don't have the speed, not stealing bases is understandable. What I don't understand is the base running mistakes. The Twins had a ton of them. Is it poor fundamental coaching or no coaching at all?

Both 

[old nurse]

37 minutes ago, Swing Batter-Batter said:

When you don't have the speed, not stealing bases is understandable. What I don't understand is the base running mistakes. The Twins had a ton of them. Is it poor fundamental coaching or no coaching at all?

Sometimes I think working on fundamentals left with Tom Kelly. Some people here are too young to remember him

[Mark G]

The premise that it is an organizational outlook in scouting and valuing talent that has developing players who simply do not have those particular traits and/or skills gives me pause.  Stop me where you think I am in the wrong lane, so to speak, but I tend to believe that this FO values athleticism and flexibility very much.  We go out of our way to develop players who can play more than one position and therefore have the athletic ability to play in a variety of places and situations.  We have had players capable of running more, but have been kept in check much of the time.  In my extremely humble opinion, and again, stop me if you think I don't know what I am talking about, but the overall analytic, or computer approach has more to do with it than most teams in the league.  I remember reading somewhere a while back (last year or the year before I think) that Rocco actually talked about this type of thing.  He said, in so many words, that the statistics show that bunting for a sacrifice, attempted steals, and aggressively taking the extra base didn't succeed enough of the time to use these tools on a regular game in game out basis.  Base running is not the only area we are at the bottom; sacrificing, bunting for base hits, and hit and run attempts are also near the bottom if my stat site is accurate.  Yes, it begins in the FO and carries down onto the field, manager and coaches included.  We have had the players, we just believe the stats say the risk outweighs the reward so we don't take the risks.  Might be true, might not be, but more and more this team is simply not fun to watch bringing in a train of pitchers and waiting for the 3 run home run.  

Old Nurse is right; where have you gone Tom Kelly?  Our Twins fans turn their lonely eyes to you.  

[tony&rodney]

The Twins under Falvey/Baldelli play baseball like base running and fundamentals are old school and no longer relevant to the games, even to the point where they seemingly believe it hurts their abilities to win. Yet, I cannot believe this to be true, which means that the current product is very confusing. Dave St. Peter and all of the Twins management should understand that poorly executed slow baseball does not interest the general public. Something has to give. I surely don'y get it because Rocco was not the type of player who would appreciate being managed in the manner the Twins play their games. We should be expecting a major change. We have to because more of the same is death for our interest in our team.

[Doctor Gast]

11 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Dear Twins, please check in with Sir Rodney to see if he would have interest in teaching base stealing and bunting fundamentals in SP this year.  You have someone in your organizational history with immense knowledge and you are not taking advantage of it.  Do it NOW!

Bingo! And how about Sir Johan Santana show our pitchers how to perfect their circle change up.

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, Reptevia said:

You should tell us it’s spam in the title. 

The word preview was in the title

[Reptevia]

Preview =Spam. Got it. 

[ashbury]

[wavedog]

Good Topic - you wrote what I have been thinking!   The analytics they are looking at likely show bunting, stealing bases and baserunning are not the smart percentage play and certainly if don't practice and try to perfect them and play players with speed then that is a self-fulfilling prophecy.   Watching last year I do not remember seeing many hit and runs either which is one reason why we were at the top of grounding into Double Plays.  I believe from my point of view their hitting philosophy is try to maximize hitting the ball the hardest each plate appearance and that will pay more dividends than doing a lot of little things (bunting, stealing, hit and run).     It was very frustrating last year watching us give up outs on the bases while the opposition was doing the opposite to us on the bases.    I have not seen any moves that would change that philosophy this offseason so expect more of the same next year - I hope I am wrong.       

[NotAboutWinning]

And what becomes of the analytics when steals, bunts and hit & run are no longer used by most teams? How good are the analytics after they have been fed lop-sided metrics?

[dxpavelka]

7 hours ago, miracleb said:

The averages didn't go up .......when we got rid of Eddie Rosario??

Lots of things didn't go up when we got rid of Eddie.  Including, and most importantly, our winning percentage.

[Pat]

If you are going to be a station to station ball club, you had better have a LOT of guys who can hit the ball out of the park. The Twins don’t have those kind of hitters anymore so as a result they have limited ways to score runs. How many games last year did they score three runs or less? 

[SanoMustGo]

Base running mistakes is another symptom of a bigger problem with this organization...intangibles.

[Mark G]

5 hours ago, Pat said:

If you are going to be a station to station ball club, you had better have a LOT of guys who can hit the ball out of the park. The Twins don’t have those kind of hitters anymore so as a result they have limited ways to score runs. How many games last year did they score three runs or less? 

79 if my stat site is correct

[Mark G]

15 hours ago, wavedog said:

Good Topic - you wrote what I have been thinking!   The analytics they are looking at likely show bunting, stealing bases and baserunning are not the smart percentage play and certainly if don't practice and try to perfect them and play players with speed then that is a self-fulfilling prophecy.   Watching last year I do not remember seeing many hit and runs either which is one reason why we were at the top of grounding into Double Plays.  I believe from my point of view their hitting philosophy is try to maximize hitting the ball the hardest each plate appearance and that will pay more dividends than doing a lot of little things (bunting, stealing, hit and run).     It was very frustrating last year watching us give up outs on the bases while the opposition was doing the opposite to us on the bases.    I have not seen any moves that would change that philosophy this offseason so expect more of the same next year - I hope I am wrong.       

 "their hitting philosophy is try to maximize hitting the ball the hardest each plate appearance and that will pay more dividends than doing a lot of little things (bunting, stealing, hit and run)."

Spot on.  That, and........wait for it........"launch angle".  Look at Buxton, for example.  There were times last year I thought I was watching a golfer with a 4 iron the way he launches it.  And when he truly squares up the ball on the barrel and lifts it the way he does, it is a HR or extra base hit.  Problem is he doesn't square up close to 80% of the time, and when he won't do the other little things he would be so good at, namely using his speed, he strikes out 33% of the time and only gets on base in any way just over 30%.  And he is only one example of the hitting philosophy that we have been using since '19.  That year we just happened to connect 307 times, and apparently think we can keep it up.  Time to stop riding those coat tails and get back to doing the things that manufacture runs.  Or are we happy with the way things are going?   

[TopGunn#22]

I'm a firm believer that no matter how fun 2019 was for Twins fans, it ruined Rocco as a manager.  I agree with the idea that Rocco would hate playing for himself.  And this lack of aggression on the basepaths will only be exacerbated by the new rules this year.  If this year is another big disappointment as many of us believe it will be, I'd say clean house all around.  New FO, new manager, new coaching staff and, heaven forbid it ever comes true, new ownership.  Rod Carew and Paul Molitor should be brought in for baserunning "101."

[stringer bell]

The article states well the differentiation between base running and stolen bases and quite accurately points out that the problem is not just a lack of stolen bases. 
 

Making too many outs on the bases and failing to take extra bases was was a worse problem than lack of steals IMHO. Beyond that, a lack of situational hitting cost the team many runs and victories over the course of the season. To win close games, the Twins had far less ways to win and it showed. There are some guys in the system that might help change things. I think base running deficiencies make/made Arraez and Urshela more expendable. 

[miller761]

I am judging the FO by how we adjust to the new rule changes. Everything starts there and is followed through on the field. If we continue to play station to station baseball with poor execution on hit and run, bunting, hitting behind runners and base stealing then Target Field will have a further reduction in attendance. There is no excuse everything is on time this year and spring training will be normal. TK made sure there was attention to detail on even the smallest things. It is up to FO to demand that and Rocco to get it done.