Twins Trade Candidate: Austin Martin

[Cody Christie]

The Minnesota Twins traded away multiple prospects at the trade deadline. Will Austin Martin be the next prospect dealt?

 

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota's roster has depth at multiple big-league positions, allowing the front office to exercise creativity this offseason. The current regime hasn't been afraid of making trades to solidify the roster and keep the team's winning window open as long as possible. As the offseason begins, it's essential to identify some of the team's possible trade candidates. 

What Did He Do in 2022? 
Austin Martin entered his first full season in the Twins organization as a consensus top-55 prospect. His season started slowly as he hit .250/.379/.315 (.694) through his first 62 games. He sustained a wrist injury while diving for a ball at the beginning of July. Martin didn't need surgery, but he was sidelined for six weeks. He finally broke out at the plate in September by hitting .268/.405/.423 (.827) with five doubles and two home runs in 19 games. 

Minnesota looked for Martin to continue his strong September by sending him to the Arizona Fall League. He won AFL Player of the Week honors (October 10-15) after going 11-for-18 (.611 BA) with two doubles, a home run, a walk, and two stolen bases. In 16 AFL games, he has a .908 OPS, and he has gone 8-for-9 in stolen base attempts.

Why is He a Trade Candidate?
One of the Twins' most significant needs this winter is at shortstop, so it might seem counterproductive to trade away a shortstop prospect. However, there are no guarantees that Martin will be a shortstop at the big-league level. Evaluators have questioned Martin's future defensive position since he was drafted, but the Twins continue to use him almost exclusively at shortstop. Minnesota's farm system has dropped in national rankings especially following this year's trade deadline. If the Twins want to make a trade this winter, Martin may need to be included as part of any package for a big-time talent. 

What is His Trade Value?
Martin has dropped on national prospect lists, but his recent performance highlights his value as a future big leaguer. When the Twins acquired Martin, he was packaged with Simeon Woods Richardson for Jose Berrios. The Twins would need to package Martin with at least one other prospect to acquire a big-league player that can impact the 2023 roster. He might provide more value as depth to the Twins farm system than as a trade piece this winter. 

Minnesota has multiple top prospects that currently play shortstop, like Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, and Noah Miller. If the organization has faith in those players, Martin might not fit into the team's long-term plans, which makes him a potential trade candidate. His value dropped this season, so the team might be more likely to keep him until the trade deadline when the 2023 Twins have shown whether or not they are contenders. 

Do you think the Twins will trade Martin? What kind of value do you think he has? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES
Gio Urshela
Emilio Pagan
Max Kepler
Jorge Polanco

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[farmerguychris]

I think his luster has worn off too much to get what he's worth in a trade.  Better yet-  lets not worry about trades at the moment when we can get new players for nothing but money.  Sign some pitching and give up nothing in free agency but money.

[Cris E]

Right now he's coming off injury, doesn't have a clear place in the depth chart and needs to gain some experience and prove his defensive worth.  If his wrist is better then let him hit for a few months and build value. We'll know our SS situation by then as well so he'll know if he's training to become a SS, 3B or CF or whatever. He can still be shipped out at the deadline if it comes to that, but right now is the wrong time. 

[nicksaviking]

He's a big-name prospect that might not live up to that kind of billing, so I'd be more than happy trading him, but not if his stock is still low. Will teams pay for his AFL performance? Or will they still demand his AA production value?

He headlined a package for Jose Berrios. If he'd now only be an auxiliary piece for a similar pitcher, I'd rather wait and hope his value increases. If his value is low, it's not an expensive gamble.

[Doctor Gast]

49 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Right now he's coming off injury, doesn't have a clear place in the depth chart and needs to gain some experience and prove his defensive worth.  If his wrist is better then let him hit for a few months and build value. We'll know our SS situation by then as well so he'll know if he's training to become a SS, 3B or CF or whatever. He can still be shipped out at the deadline if it comes to that, but right now is the wrong time. 

Martin is a valuable asset to the Twins. He can get on base very frequently & not afraid to steal a base. He has also shown some flashes of power that will continue to increase as he gets stronger. He has shown when he's not hurting to be very impactful.

But what's most valuable is his athleticism, He can play anywhere on the field, with our injury problem and his RH bat. IMO Martin could be MLB ready this spring to be an utility player if they choose to trade Urshela because he can sub 3B and 2B because we need more quality depth with this new shift ban.

IMO Martin is too valuable to this Twins future to trade. I'd choose many others before him.

[Twins GFP]

Huge factor for Martin will be how his defense is considered.  The Twins are working him at SS right now, but that does not tell us how well he is playing defensively.

I think they may be hedging their bets on Lewis here.  If Lewis pans out at SS, you may be looking at the next super-sub in Martin.

Viable trade candidate, but would not get a great return at this time.

[Rosterman]

Martin only completed his second season of minor league ball. Yes, he will keep getting older, but he has so much talent and promise.

He runs bases well. The question is the best place for his glove. And then, who could he replace on the roster?

Is he the key to the short-term future at second base? If Lewis isn't the shortstop, does he hold the palce until Lee or Miller?

Can he bump someone out of the outfield (and the organization) in the outfield. Kepler, Larnach, Kirilloff, Celestino, Wallner? Would you consider him still behind ALL those names in outfield depth? Then we have a real "where to play Austin" problem.

Or, does he play himself into a super-utility role for the Twins by 2024 and we go from there?

Right now, as tradebait, he would have to packaged with another name, probably higher and closer to the majors in the Twins prospects list.

[Major League Ready]

I doubt his trade value is that great given he has cooled off the last week although you have to believe his stock will be up if he closes as great as he started.  My inclination is to hold on to him.  He could be very valuable in a super utility role especially given Buxton is so injury prone.  A guy that can back-up both middle IF spots and OF position, steal bases, and get on base is a guy I would like to see on the team. 

[DocBauer]

I think his September and AFl are indicators that his trajectory is trending upward, even with questions about his defense. If your offense is good enough, they will find a spot/role for you.

I think his role is going to be every day player at 4 or 5 positions. Not saying he can't/won't be a "starter", just thinking he could be super valuable and successful playing all over on a daily basis.

But his value is a little low right now based on a mediocre 2021 and less than ideal start to 2022. And farmerguychris echoes something I've been saying for a couple weeks now: time to spend some $ and quit trading away prospects.

[miller761]

Twins need more players like Martin. See the Houston Astros. Future is not base to base unless you hit a homer run. Starting next year players like Martin will be more valuable as the game is shifting. Hit and run, base stealing, running the bases first to third and first to home and making contact will be trademark of successful teams. 

[h2oface]

A .268 hitter for a month in his second year in AA ball is a breakout??

How far expectation and evaluation has fallen. Once a writer/scout/FO calls a player a top prospect, they will hang on to it and make concessions for it as long as they can. 

[oregontwin]

I don't think they trade him. Lee is too far off to be the 2023 SS and Lewis won't be available till mid year if ever at shortstop. Martin is not a long term solution at that position, but he might be the interim solution we need. If they sign a solution, minimizing Lewis' value, then maybe they package him in a trade. If not they need to keep him.

[roger]

Interesting question, Cody.  Expect he is behind both Lewis and Lee on the Twins depth chart.  Doesn't mean the Twins are interested in trading him.  On the other hand, should someone offer the Twins a top return, better than many of us would expect, they will likely listen.  I would be very surprised if they would even listen to trades for either of the LL boys.  

The Twins may also be wise to hang on to all three and see which of them turns into the best young player after reaching the active roster.

[Nashvilletwin]

2 hours ago, miller761 said:

Twins need more players like Martin. See the Houston Astros. Future is not base to base unless you hit a homer run. Starting next year players like Martin will be more valuable as the game is shifting. Hit and run, base stealing, running the bases first to third and first to home and making contact will be trademark of successful teams. 

Rec this. The Twins are basically quite poor at all of Martin’s best attributes: OBP, base stealing, not striking out. The game is headed in that direction. He will be a valuable RH bat at the top of the order along with Arraez, Lee, Lewis. and Julien.  Or he could be that spark in the 9th spot. There are lots of potential fielding spots for him - even as a super utility playing 4-6 times per week.

Of course, we could just trade another one of our leading young prospects for a starter or reliever with an injury history….

Keep him for now for sure.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

4 hours ago, DocBauer said:

And farmerguychris echoes something I've been saying for a couple weeks now: time to spend some $ and quit trading away prospects.

Amen

[Richie the Rally Goat]

8 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Martin is a valuable asset to the Twins. He can get on base very frequently & not afraid to steal a base. He has also shown some flashes of power that will continue to increase as he gets stronger. He has shown when he's not hurting to be very impactful.

But what's most valuable is his athleticism, He can play anywhere on the field, with our injury problem and his RH bat. IMO Martin could be MLB ready this spring to be an utility player if they choose to trade Urshela because he can sub 3B and 2B because we need more quality depth with this new shift ban.

IMO Martin is too valuable to this Twins future to trade. I'd choose many others before him.

I’m somewhere along these lines too. Polanco and Urshela are both in the last years under control/contract. Neither are likely to be retained. Arraez theoretically plays first, second and third. Miranda theoretically plays first and third. Neither plays second or third well. Buxton is all-world CF, but injured a ton.

Martin plays SS, 2B and CF and has the athleticism and at least seems like a competent fielder. Scouting reports don’t like his arm, but high OBP rangy utility guy has a ton of value for this team.

[RpR]

16 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Keep him for now for sure.

Yep in 70 games for Witchta he only had 18 errors at Short Stop, maybe they could trade him with Detroit for Palacios.?

[Stew]

The problem you have with any player is what is there value right at this moment. Take Sano as an example. If he had played 125 games this year and hit 35+ homers and batted .250, would we want to get rid of him? It would never happen. But with the season he had he has no value. With martin teams will be trading for future potential. Do what some of the people on this site said. Hold him , and see what the stats are by mid season.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Yep in 70 games for Witchta he only had 18 errors at Short Stop, maybe they could trade him with Detroit for Palacios.?

That's very close to the rate Jeter had when he was in AAA.  They should have gotten rid of the bum.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, h2oface said:

A .268 hitter for a month in his second year in AA ball is a breakout??

How far expectation and evaluation has fallen. Once a writer/scout/FO calls a player a top prospect, they will hang on to it and make concessions for it as long as they can. 

I know you know BA is a minor part of evaluating a player.   OBP is more important than BA.  stolen bases and base running matters.  Defensive flexibility is an asset.  Overall potential / ceiling matters.  You know all of this but just can't pass up an opportunity to be negative.  A couple months ago a lot of people were bitching about SWR too.  lots of people looking for something to complain about.

[RpR]

28 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

That's very close to the rate Jeter had when he was in AAA.  They should have gotten rid of the bum.

The analogy makes no sense, but if you want to compare:

In 1994 in 138 Minor league games in A - AA - AAA combined he had 25 errors; as that is just under twice as many games, it would calcualte to a fraction over 12 errors per 70 games.

 

[Monkeypaws]

The Twins blew a ton of prospect capital last season and ended up finishing below .500

 

Not sure this is a wise approach.

[weitz41]

Anyone that may play SS for the Twins in the near future should be a target to trade for not trade away.

[Old Twins Hat]

Is he a brother?

 

[mac098]

At this point in his young career, he hasn't really shown the organization much that warrants us holding onto him. Yes, he has a high OBP and can steal bases. But his avg isn't great, his defense is avg-below avg, and he isn't developing at a rate that the Twins need him. Maybe he is going to be our next Nick Gordon. Won't have a permanent position on the team outside of Super-Utility. He'll be our player that gets into the games because others need rest days.

Or better yet, maybe we trade him to some rebuilding team and see what happens (given we're not too far from being a rebuilding team). Right now is his window to EARN the starting SS spot at the MLB club if we are unable to resign Correa or be able to sign Bogaerts, Turner, or Swanson. Come ST he needs to show that he deserves the spot.

[tony&rodney]

The question of whether Martin is a decent trade candidate depends on what baseball philosophy the Twins adopt for 2023. Martin is an on base machine and athletic player who will steal bases. The Twins could have a new look next year but their approach has been to play base to base and wait for a home run; they were very poor at running the bases in the last several seasons. If the Twins are going to continue the style of baseball we have seen, then trading Martin is almost certain providing any value comes in return. However, I am hopeful of a shift in thinking and practice that will begin in 2023.

[Seansy]

No, don't trade him when his value has cratered. Give him a chance to bounce back fully next year than assess his fit on the team from there. Unless some team wants to pay for him as a top 50 global prospect I would rather wait and see how he bounces back given his strong finish to the year.

[jjswol]

Every player is a trade candidate, if they are not they should be. 

 

[KBJ1]

He was supposed to be a great hitter when we traded for him.

I don't see a viable SS on the roster outside of Lewis, who is injured because we played him out of position.

2 yrs ago, Lewis looked like a bust with a giant hole in his swing, boy did he surprise!

Outside of Polanco,  I don't see a viable 2B either. Gordon & Arraez are part time fill ins at best. 

Trade Arraez if you want trade bait.

Everyone is in love with his batting average,  but he is a One Tool player!

No speed, bad knee, poor fielder, no power, enough said. 

I'd much rather see an above average glove with a 285 Ave & 20 HR & 20 SB that Martin has the potential to be.

[TwinsDr2021]

On 10/31/2022 at 9:54 PM, Major League Ready said:

That's very close to the rate Jeter had when he was in AAA.  They should have gotten rid of the bum.

You aren't really comparing a 23 year old Martin to a Guy that debuted at the age of 21 are we and won Rookie of the year at age 21/22?