Article: Rundown: Twins Pursuit of Pitching

[Tom Froemming]

David Schoenfield of ESPN put together a nice breakdown of who’s left on the starting pitching market. He noted that the Twins may gamble on Clay Buchholz and/or Drew Pomeranz. I wrote about Pomeranz in my search for the next Nathan Eovaldi here at Twins Daily a couple weeks ago, but what about Buchholz?

 

Continue reading for more info on Buchholz plus a number of other news & notes items in this edition of the Rundown.Clay Buchholz had a nice 2.01 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 3.68 K:BB ratio for the Diamondbacks last year. That's pretty awesome, right? This issue is he pitched just 98 1/3 innings in 2018. In fact, Buchholz only logged 7 1/3 innings the prior year, 139 1/3 in 2016 and 113 1/3 in 2015. So this is not a guy you’d want to bank on for innings.

 

Still, Buchholz has a 3.69 ERA and 3.86 FIP over the previous four seasons. That puts him 36th in ERA among the 137 pitchers who've thrown 350 innings over the past four years, right between Ervin Santana (3.68 ERA) and Lance Lynn (3.70 ERA). In that same sample, Buchholz has the lowest HR:FB ratio (9.2%) of any pitcher.

 

Buchholz missed nearly all of the 2017 season due to a partial tear of his right flexor in his forearm. Arizona was forced to shut him down in mid September this year due to a strained flexor, so that's a pretty big red flag for the 34-year-old. I would certainly prefer Drew Pomeranz, who only is 30, left-handed and has been more durable, but Buchholz is another interesting buy-low, bounce back option if the Twins are inclined to go that route.

 

Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press reported that the Twins planned on being creative with their pitching staff again in 2019. Derek Falvey is quoted in the piece as saying “I think we are seeing across baseball a clear trend toward utilizing guys in a different way out of a bullpen. Some are clearly backend guys, some are short-stint types and there is this multi-inning role, whatever you call it. That could be really valuable to us.”

 

Also included in that piece is some more steam on Fernando Romero potentially joining the bullpen. Romero had a respectable Major League debut last season, pitching to a 4.69 ERA in 55 2/3 innings with the Twins, but he did get knocked around a little. He averaged 9.7 H/9 and his WHIP was 1.42. Romero made his final nine appearances of the season with Rochester, posting a 4.76 ERA with an uncharacteristically low 6.0 K/9 rate over that span.

 

It’s fair to note that along with his MLB debut, Romero also made his Triple-A debut in 2018, so something of an adjustment period was probably to be expected. Hitters at those levels make a pitcher work much harder. They don’t chase bad pitches like hitters in the lower levels. Romero’s never been much of an innings eater over his career, so that could also factor in when considering his future role.

 

In his Winter Meetings wrap-up, MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park noted that the Twins are still in search of pitching. Included in that piece is this quote from Thad Levine: "We're trying to make sound business decisions, and there's a lot of supply out there. There's a lot of players on the marketplace still. So we've got a lot of options we can continue to pursue."

 

Craig Edwards of FanGraphs observed that last year’s reliever market seems to have carried over. Jeurys Familia signed with the Mets for three years and $30 million while the Dodgers signed Joe Kelly to a three-year, $25 million deal. As Edwards notes, that continues the trend of relievers fetching multi-year deals between $7 and $10 million per season.

 

The Twins waited out the market last year, landing Addison Reed on a two-year deal worth $16.5 million on Jan. 15. Reed had a mysterious dip in velocity that coincided by a streak of poor performances, but I’m not so sure there’s any lessons to be learned from that signing. I wouldn’t be surprised if they have extended multiple two-year offers to relievers and are just waiting for those guys to come down from seeking a third year.

 

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic asked “where are the Twins?” in a recent column for The Athletic. He doesn’t offer up an answer to that question, but Rosenthal did call the Twins “a team to watch in the days and weeks ahead.”

 

Unlike the Twins, Cleveland was active at the Winter Meetings. But were they buyers or sellers? It’s kinda hard to say. The Indians traded Yonder Alonso to the White Sox for minor league pitcher Alex Call and then were involved in a complicated three-way trade with the Rays and (who else?) Mariners. Cleveland gave up Edwin Encarnacion, Yandy Diaz and Cole Sulser to acquire Carlos Santana and Jake Bauers. There was also a lot of chatter around possible Cory Kluber and Trevor Bauer trades, but those two are still with the Indians, at least for now.

 

Speaking of the White Sox, they're meeting with Manny Machado today, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. They may have gained an advantage in acquiring Alonso from Cleveland. He's Machado's brother-in-law

 

File this one under better late than never: A commemorative home plate has been installed at U.S. Bank Stadium in celebration of the Twins’ glory days at the Metrodome. It’s located approximately where the dish was in the old dome, which is great because that also means it’s on the main concourse of the new stadium, accessible to all fans.

 

Will Leitch took a look at every team’s current, active franchise icon for MLB.com. The Twins? Jose Berrios. Man, that seems weird.

 

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[Brandon]

Parker Bridwell was just DFA'd by the yankees.  He is a good cheap relief option.

[mikelink45]

Bucholz and Pomeranz do not move the dial for me.  Are they really ready to improve the Twins more than what we have?  Baseball Reference projects a 6 - 5 record, 3.63 era and 1,24 WHIP for Buchholz and 104 innings.  Pomeranz is projected for 7-6, 4.11 and 1.40 with 105 innings.  Compare that with the pitcher projections for the existing players.  Do either of them make us better or just solidify the 500 status of the club. 

 

https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11300-%7B%3F%7D/

 

 

[Brandon]

If we sign another starter I do like the idea of Buckholtz.  He can be very good or replaceable if not so good.  And he wont be expensive or a long term commitment. 

 

So someone from the minors would have to beat out either Buckholtz or Odorizzi for a spot in the rotation or hope for an injury and we would likely have a starter to trade for prospects in July/August if everyone stays healthy. 

[Respy]

Pomeranz's fastball velo is way down, below 90 last year.  I've never been impressed by his stuff or command.  His FIP each year is also not very good.

 

Buchholz is worth a shot and cheap enough, if we plan to have backup options for when he gets hurt, like Fernando Romero (if not already in the rotation).

[SF Twins Fan]

Moving Romero to the bullpen at the start of the season is such a waste. At least let him start the season in the starting rotation as this will be the first time he's going to be able to repeat a level.

[lukeduke1980]

I think either could be serviceable in the mold of perennial number 5 starter Wade Miley.  Can we find some Josh Haders to go with them though(?)

[old nurse]

Pomeranze had a great 2017, a good 2016. Injuries seem to derail him.  Guessing which of Buchholz or Pmeranz would hold up for a season is a poor bet. As minimal wage fliers that would be fine.  Counting on them for a season would not be a building sort of move.

[S.]

 

Parker Bridwell was just DFA'd by the yankees.  He is a good cheap relief option.

How good can he be if he was DFA'd? The best of the garbage heap isn't exactly going to move the needle on our pitching problems.

[SomeGuy]

Another red flag for Buchholz is velocity.  He was down to an average of 90MPH in 2018, down about 3 MPH from his career average or pre 2015 (pre injuries).  Hard to imagine that turning around when 3 of his last 4 season have been ended early with similar injuries to his throwing arm.

[Monkeypaws]

Between Mejía and Romero, I think the Twins have a back of the rotation guy and a swingman at least as good as these options, potentially much better. 

 

Get some bullpen help first. Who is gonna close for this team?

 

On a side note, I am more interested in seeing if Stewart can repeat his modest success of last year, or if Gonsalves can figure out MLB hitters, than buying damaged goods or yesterday's stars. If I were Falvine I would wager one or two of our AAA guys at the cusp are MLB worthy.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Neither Buchholz nor Pomeranz make the Twins a playoff caliber team.

I'd like to see them DO something significant about a SP, but doubt such a thing will happen.

Guess we'll just hope everyone has a career year. Again.

[Vanimal46]

Bucholz and Pomeranz does nothing for me. The Twins have no shortage of back end rotation pitchers. Try aiming for a player who can slot into #2/3, or (gasp!) #1 in the rotation.

[DocBauer]

I agree on the internal options for 2019, as well as working with them for 2020 and beyond.

 

Considering age and injury, I have to wonder if a guy like Bucholz might be enticed to re-invent himself in the bullpen?

[rv78]

quote from Thad Levine: "We're trying to make sound business decisions, and there's a lot of supply out there. There's a lot of players on the marketplace still. So we've got a lot of options we can continue to pursue."

 

This means we are going to add pitching and we'll pick the best players that are left after other clubs take the cream of the crop. They'll be cheaper and it is all about making the Pohlads more money. If we win, great! If not, well we tried with what we were allowed to spend. Live with it! There's always next year!

[Vanimal46]

quote from Thad Levine: "We're trying to make sound business decisions, and there's a lot of supply out there. There's a lot of players on the marketplace still. So we've got a lot of options we can continue to pursue."

 

This means we are going to add pitching and we'll pick the best players that are left after other clubs take the cream of the crop. They'll be cheaper and it is all about making the Pohlads more money. If we win, great! If not, well we tried with what we were allowed to spend. Live with it! There's always next year!

Now you understand fully... Welcome aboard!

[IndianaTwin]

I've said elsewhere that one of the things I've been impressed with in the new regime is that they don't box themselves into a corner with moves and seem to be prepared to cut bait pretty quickly if things don't seem to be working out. Occasionally they get burned by cutting bait too quickly (Anibal Sanchez would have been nice last year), but not usually.

 

When Buchholz has been good, he has been really good. Like top-half of the rotation good at times. When he has been bad, he has been really bad. Like bottom-half of the AA rotation at times, though often that's been hand-in-hand with injuries. 

 

So I offer him a very modest salary that is very heavy on incentives for 100 and every multiple of 25 innings beyond that. 

 

DocBauer beat me in also wondering about enticing him to move to the bullpen, where similar incentive-driven formulas could be developed. 

[Old Twins Cap]

 

quote from Thad Levine: "We're trying to make sound business decisions, and there's a lot of supply out there. There's a lot of players on the marketplace still. So we've got a lot of options we can continue to pursue."

 

 

The read-between-the-lines on this:

 

"Once the season is going, and we figure out what we've got with young arms, Buxton, Sano and the whole team, we are confident we can find pitching on the open market."

 

I'd rather pitch young guys for once -- Romero, Vazquez, Littel, Mejia, Thorpe, Gonsalves, et al -- see who swims and sinks, then, live with that.

 

Twins are credible division challengers in 2019, with a (arguably) top 5 minor league system.

 

Steady and steadfast, raise the level in this organization, but don't sell out for one year, one guy, or one hunch.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[notoriousgod71]

Get out of the damn dumpster. These two won't help the Twins this year and they won't bring anything worthwhile back in trades.  Please, Please, PLEASE change your entire mindset as a front office.

[ChrisKnutson]

Not a fan of bringing in Buchholz, and not because he isn’t good, it’s just that he isn’t on the field enough to be worth anything more than 1yr/$3M. I’d rather we roll the dice on Gio Gonzalez, who’s seems like he’s only the decline, yet at the same time is still a quality left hander capable of giving us 170 innings. James Shields wouldn’t be a bad option either, as he did pitch 204.2 innings in 2018.

[DocBauer]

quote from Thad Levine: "We're trying to make sound business decisions, and there's a lot of supply out there. There's a lot of players on the marketplace still. So we've got a lot of options we can continue to pursue."

 

This means we are going to add pitching and we'll pick the best players that are left after other clubs take the cream of the crop. They'll be cheaper and it is all about making the Pohlads more money. If we win, great! If not, well we tried with what we were allowed to spend. Live with it! There's always next year!

Respectfully, I am going to disagree with you. In all sports, but concerning baseball at the moment, there are owners who tend to go "all in" more than others in regard to payroll, whether it be ego or as fans themselves. Others tend to run their organization in a more traditional "business-like" manner. Not a coincidence that the traditional "all in" owners tend to be in major markets. I am NOT a Pohlad apologist, nor am I referring to them directly. Just stating what I believe to be an accepted fact.

 

I am skipping the smart value signings of Rodney and Duke and concentrating on Addison Reed. He was considered one of the premium RP available on the market but slipped through the cracks in a slow market. He signed for a very fair 2yr deal that was heralded. THIS off season, the market appears to be even deeper with options than last year. Not only do the Twins have at least a few returning arms to consider, but also the use of the arms available, such as guys like Romero or Mejia, and others, to consider for pen roles.

 

Considering the depth of options, and a still slow moving market, I take Levine's comment at face value. See how the market unfolds over the next few weeks, and then make a couple smart signings.

[108Stitches]

I have a buddy of mine who always tries shopping at flea markets and thrift stores looking for antiques, knickknacks etc hoping to score something valuable for cheap. Kind of reminds me of this.

[DocBauer]

Not a fan of bringing in Buchholz, and not because he isn’t good, it’s just that he isn’t on the field enough to be worth anything more than 1yr/$3M. I’d rather we roll the dice on Gio Gonzalez, who’s seems like he’s only the decline, yet at the same time is still a quality left hander capable of giving us 170 innings. James Shields wouldn’t be a bad option either, as he did pitch 204.2 innings in 2018.

No to the 37yo Shields coming off a pair of poor season's and a mediocre one. (Though pitching for the bad Dirty Sox, he may be excused to a small degree). We don't need an innings eater with poor numbers, especially with guys to actually PLAY and see what they can accomplish in 2019.

 

But I admit to curiosity regarding Gonzalez. I remain Leary of guys who spent all or most of their career in the NL making the move over. The 33yo had a mediocre 2016 with a really nice bounce back in 2017 before a pretty bad 2018. However, he did show good numbers in 5 late starts for Milwaukee. Was it just time to move on? He's had a nice, solid career. There is probably some gas left in the tank and he might be had on the cheap side.

 

I think he's worth consideration. However, I really think we're better served with Romero, Mejia, Gonsalves, Thorpe, and even Stewart and Littell, for 2019, to flesh out the rotation/staff for 2019 and beyond.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I've said elsewhere that one of the things I've been impressed with in the new regime is that they don't box themselves into a corner with moves and seem to be prepared to cut bait pretty quickly if things don't seem to be working out. Occasionally they get burned by cutting bait too quickly (Anibal Sanchez would have been nice last year), but not usually.

They'd have to make moves that have a direction beyond a single season for them to even have a chance to "box themselves in." So far it's been a lot of treading water. 

[PseudoSABR]

The Twins have three potential 2019 FAs locked into their rotation, bringing in a make-due-one-year guy makes little sense, unless the deal is more than one year.  If they are going to add to their rotation they need to bring in someone they can rely on more than this season.  

 

I'm not sure how competitive the Twins will be this year, given that, I hope we can figure out what we have in Meija, Romero, Gonsalves, Stewart, even Thorpe.  In the 2019 offseason, they'll have as many as FOUR spots to fill, and we need to know what internal options we have.  Honestly, it's a difficult position for the front office, but I think they need to see what they've got.

 

(That said, if Pomeranz or Bucholz is brought in on a very low deal and no guarantee, I'm fine with it; especially if such would lead to a trade, say, of Ordorrizi(sp?)). 

Edited December 18, 2018 by PseudoSABR

[ChrisKnutson]

No to the 37yo Shields coming off a pair of poor season's and a mediocre one. (Though pitching for the bad Dirty Sox, he may be excused to a small degree). We don't need an innings eater with poor numbers, especially with guys to actually PLAY and see what they can accomplish in 2019.

But I admit to curiosity regarding Gonzalez. I remain Leary of guys who spent all or most of their career in the NL making the move over. The 33yo had a mediocre 2016 with a really nice bounce back in 2017 before a pretty bad 2018. However, he did show good numbers in 5 late starts for Milwaukee. Was it just time to move on? He's had a nice, solid career. There is probably some gas left in the tank and he might be had on the cheap side.

I think he's worth consideration. However, I really think we're better served with Romero, Mejia, Gonsalves, Thorpe, and even Stewart and Littell, for 2019, to flesh out the rotation/staff for 2019 and beyond.

Since Gibby, Odorizzi, and Pineda are all gonna be gone next year, we’re gonna need some experience in the rotation, why not sign Gonzalez to a 2-3yr deal and then trade Odorizzi right after, still leaving an opening in the rotation for Romero/Mejia.

[DocBauer]

Since Gibby, Odorizzi, and Pineda are all gonna be gone next year, we’re gonna need some experience in the rotation, why not sign Gonzalez to a 2-3yr deal and then trade Odorizzi right after, still leaving an opening in the rotation for Romero/Mejia.

Great question!

 

First and foremost, let's state the facts clearly. As of NOW, Gibson, Pineda and Odorizzi are PENDING FA after 2019. Even if you buy in to a cheap organization hyperbole, do we really think an organizational FO who buys in to experience and leadership would just leave the cupboard bare of such? Unless they have secret plans none of us knows about to add a veteran SP, possible, I would expect at least 1 of these 3 to return. Honestly, I expect a quality and reasonable offer to Gibson in the near future. Pineda comes second, as he is still a bit of a wild card, but with reasonable quality expectation. He becomes easier to re-sign if Gibson is already locked in. Odorizzi is a real wild card. There is still enough there for him to "get it late" as Gibson did. (Though in truth Gibson's first 2 years were quality).

 

Regardless, at least one will be gone, if not two, but not all three. 2019 will be, for the first half season at least, looking at Romero, Gonsalves, Mejia, Stewart, Thorpe by mid season at least, and determining 2020. Depending on what we see, don't be surprised for one of them to be moved to make room.

[ChrisKnutson]

Great question!

First and foremost, let's state the facts clearly. As of NOW, Gibson, Pineda and Odorizzi are PENDING FA after 2019. Even if you buy in to a cheap organization hyperbole, do we really think an organizational FO who buys in to experience and leadership would just leave the cupboard bare of such? Unless they have secret plans none of us knows about to add a veteran SP, possible, I would expect at least 1 of these 3 to return. Honestly, I expect a quality and reasonable offer to Gibson in the near future. Pineda comes second, as he is still a bit of a wild card, but with reasonable quality expectation. He becomes easier to re-sign if Gibson is already locked in. Odorizzi is a real wild card. There is still enough there for him to "get it late" as Gibson did. (Though in truth Gibson's first 2 years were quality).

Regardless, at least one will be gone, if not two, but not all three. 2019 will be, for the first half season at least, looking at Romero, Gonsalves, Mejia, Stewart, Thorpe by mid season at least, and determining 2020. Depending on what we see, don't be surprised for one of them to be moved to make room.

Yet if 2019 is similar to 2018, and there’s enough interest around the league (which is what I’d expect), I wouldn’t be surprised, nor upset, if all three of Gibson, Pineda, and Odorizzi are dealt by next years trade deadline (as long as the returns are good). Which is why signing Gonzalez may make sense, if not, we can always sign either Julio Teheran, Jhoulys Chacin, Zack Wheeler, Sonny Gray, or Gerrit Cole (highly unlikely) next offseason. Edited December 18, 2018 by ChrisKnutson

[beckmt]

If you are of the mindset that seeing what you have is a good policy, I get that.  I also get the division is possible to take with bold moves.  However, you have been giving the Sox the feeling that you are not going to make the moves, so they have started to.  They have the better ranked farm system, so multiple bold moves to jump ahead of you this year, may make it almost impossible to catch up later without catching lightning in a bottle, and all but guaranteeing that your young core moves on in a couple of years without overpays to keep them.  

Baseball has changed, the names have changed for the Twins, but still see the same mindset in the FO, which is quickly becoming the past.

[wabene]

I'm with doc on this I would be shocked if they don't sign at least Gibby and soon. I would be disappointed as well. They cannot move forward with such a bare cupboard