Article: Twins Extend Phil Hughes

[Otto von Ballpark]

ge factors at the back end of the conract aside, if true, I like this move.

 

Age factors?  He'll turn 33 midway through the last year of the contract.  Ervin Santana is signed for 3 years beyond that point, Nolasco for 2.

 

Locking up a guy through his age 33 season might be close to ideal -- while people often talk about "the wrong side of 30", letting guys go at age 30-31 is probably giving up on them a little too early (barring major injury, which can really happen at any age), assuming your goal is to field a competitive team.

Edited December 22, 2014 by spycake

[Brock Beauchamp]

Locking up a guy through his age 33 season might be close to ideal -- while people often talk about "the wrong side of 30", letting guys go at age 30-31 is probably giving up on them a little too early (barring major injury, which can really happen at any age), assuming your goal is to field a competitive team.

I'd say the ideal is age 32-ish season but yeah, age 33 season ain't bad. The typical pitcher is probably in decline at that point but unless it's injury-related, the age 33 decline should be manageable in most cases.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm digesting this. I did not expect this.

 

On the one hand, he's only 28 years old, and I'm firmly in the camp that thinks he is for real. Would I give a 5-year, $58 million contract to a guy to a guy like that? Yeah, I think I would. It's certainly favorable to the Santana deal, which seemed like a relative bargain. 

 

Would I rip up a fantastic contract to take on three extra years of risk? I'm a LOT more tentative about that. Even if he is for real, pitchers get hurt.

 

But the last time Hughes missed much time for an injury was 2011 (shoulder) and has basically had a full load of starts four of the last five years. And again , he's just 28.

 

OK, I like this deal - like it, don't love it. But that's from someone who is pretty skeptical about extensions. 

John, think about it this way: in 2008, the Twins did basically the same thing for Joe Nathan (although Nathan only had 1 year remaining on his current deal) -- a 3/42 extension.

 

That was admittedly a sketchy decision, but: change it from a closer to a starter, subtract 3-4 years of age, and keep the absolute dollars the same despite 7 years of baseball inflation?  That's a solid deal I think, a good risk to take.

[Mike Sixel]

I approve of this decision. Congrats to both sides.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'd say the ideal is age 32-ish season but yeah, age 33 season ain't bad. The typical pitcher is probably in decline at that point but unless it's injury-related, the age 33 decline should be manageable in most cases.

Agreed, that's why I said "close to ideal" -- and for Hughes, if he had been born a week later, this contract would only run through his age-32 season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Hughes is leaving a lot of money on the table, yet how much money do you need, folks. Of course, it is a bargain for th Twins. What would a qualifying offer be a couple of years from now. What will a qualifying offer be to keep Hughes one more year in 2020 if the two wished to stay together?

Hughes isn't at a table to collect more money for another two years, and the last time he was at such a table he got less than what many here predicted.  I'd say it's a good deal for both sides.

 

The qualifying offer is an interesting point -- a contract through age-33 might also be ideal for that factor.  He will be old enough at that point to dissuade many teams from offering a 4-5 year deal, but young enough where he could easily be worth 1/16 to a contending team with an open rotation spot.  (Assuming the qualifying offer system doesn't change too much between now and then.)

[nicksaviking]

Agreed, that's why I said "close to ideal" -- and for Hughes, if he had been born a week later, this contract would only run through his age-32 season.

 

Right, or roughly the same age Alex Meyer will be when he finally becomes a free agent. 

[DaveW]

Coming into the offseason this was my personal top choice on what to do. Very very team friendly. We could be looking back in a few years as it being an absolute steal.

[DJL44]

Imagine being able to sign James Shields 5 years ago for this money. This is a bargain.

[TheLeviathan]

Nice work Twins, this is a good move.

[Jerr]

I like it, but dang the money these guys get is beyond my imagination!

 

Hughes is a class guy and a real plus for the Twins to lock him up, for a long time.

 

Been a good off season, for this since they came here, Twins fan

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm leary of 5 year deals, but he's only going be 6 months older than Santana is now when his contract is up. 

Nitpick: Santana just turned 32, Hughes will be 33 years and 3-4 months at the end of the 2019 season.  Still, the point remains: Santana's deal extends 3 years beyond that age.

[SarasotaBill]

Very good deal for the Twins and Hughes.

 

After the recent Volquez and Rios signings, I'm liking the Santana and Hunter deals much more.

 

Can't wait for ST. 

[Thegrin]

Of coursem the Twins could be in contention in 2015.  A happy Phil Hughes could be the key to the club.  Of course, all the pitchers arms could fall off too.  Thats why we watch the games

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Would I rip up a fantastic contract to take on three extra years of risk? I'm a LOT more tentative about that. Even if he is for real, pitchers get hurt.

 

This is certainly one way for small-market spenders to compete with the big boys. I also think this is a move that doesn't go unnoticed by players and agents around the league. You out-performed your contract, how about a raise? You have to toe that line cautiously, but it sends the right message to your players.

[Halsey Hall]

I like the move.  Shows Jim Pohlad and TR are getting aggressive and now the rotation is in very good shape.  Seems like a shifting in goals for the future.  Now the attention will shift to the position players, maybe not this year, but next for sure.  The light at the end of the tunnel keeps getting brighter. 

[Jerr]

Very good deal for the Twins and Hughes.

 

After the recent Volquez and Rios signings, I'm liking the Santana and Hunter deals much more.

 

Can't wait for ST. 

SPRING TRAINING...that just sounds soooo good!!!

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is certainly one way for small-market spenders to compete with the big boys. I also think this is a move that doesn't go unnoticed by players and agents around the league. You out-performed your contract, how about a raise? You have to toe that line cautiously, but it sends the right message to your players.

Not to mention that it's the second time they've done it in two years (Perkins).

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not to mention that it's the second time they've done it in two years (Perkins).

After we arguably missed out on some chances to do it in the 2000's (Mauer, Santana, Hunter were all mostly arb-buyout deals -- could the Twins have been more aggressive with those first big contracts?).

[DJL44]

They gave Kurt Suzuki a reasonable raise also.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Makes a person wonder if Dozier and/or Plouffe will get an offer this offseason as well. Both were discussed in depth on other threads already, but it seems like the Twins are generally in favor of extensions over finding a free agent replacement.

[dougkoebernick]

My prediction is that within the next 18 months Nolasco gets traded to a National League team. In fact if he pitches good this year and the Twins are out of it by the deadline I think he will be gone.

[laloesch]

I like the long-term view the Twins are taking on this move.  It tells me the Twins are being honest with themselves and know that they aren't going to contend this year and most likely won't be next year.  However, 2017 could be a different story if the young guys develop like we all want them to.  With this move they have a very good veteran presence to anchor a young rotation in a year when they may contend.  2017 could see a rotation of Hughes, Berrios, Meyer, May, Santana/Gibson.  Good move in my opinion.  Plus they got what could be a very big discount.

I really like this move.  If the Hughes extension, Santana and Hunter free agent signings are the three offseason moves I'd give Terry Ryan a solid A-. 

 

Extending Hughes was a no-brainer and signing Santana will give this rotation a solid 1 2 punch for at least four years.  It also could mean that Nolasco is expendable and will be shopped this season.  After all, he did tweet he wished he was still in LA back in late September. 

 

Move him out and we still have a strong rotation of Hughes, Santana, Gibson with May, Meyer & Berrios competing for #4 & #5.  I like it!

[dbminn]

Good news. Definitely worth the risk.

[nytwinsfan]

Makes a person wonder if Dozier and/or Plouffe will get an offer this offseason as well. Both were discussed in depth on other threads already, but it seems like the Twins are generally in favor of extensions over finding a free agent replacement.

I really hope not with Plouffe, and would prefer not for Dozier either. Let's see how Dozier does next year, and also how Polanco does. By 2016 or 2017 Polanco might end up being a cheaper, better fielding, better hitting/OBP version of Dozier, albeit with less power.

[PseudoSABR]

Phil Hughes ‏@PJHughes45  16m16 minutes ago
So pumped to call Minnesota home for the next 5 years! Thank you to the @Twins organization and fans for all the support! #TwinsTerritory

[Brandon]

I like this move.  I would be surprised by anyone who didn't.  Its about 2-4 million per season discount.  Hughes gets closer to making 100 million for his career with enough of a guarantee to get close enough to 100 million that it doesn't matter if he gets there or not.  He'll be eligible to sign a new contract that can take him to 200 million in career earnings if he continues to pitch well.

 

This is a nice early Christmas present to the Fans from the Pohlad's this year.  This is a lot nicer then the middle finger we get when a free agent leaves. 

 

Also lost in the new is the Twins signed Will Ledezma a LHRP to a minor league deal.

[James]

Makes a person wonder if Dozier and/or Plouffe will get an offer this offseason as well. Both were discussed in depth on other threads already, but it seems like the Twins are generally in favor of extensions over finding a free agent replacement.

I would imagine that they are probably working on a Dozier extension right now actually.  It would reward him by giving him more than league minimum this year and buy out his arb years.  I could also see both Dozier and the Twins waiting until next year to work out an extension when he finally hits arbitration.  

 

Plouffe is harder to figure out.  It certainly seems like he might be without a position here shortly.  Tough to say what exactly will happen with him.

 

As far as Hughes goes, I like this deal a lot.  I'm really excited to watch him be in the rotation for the next few years.  I know that we can't expect the same results as last year, but I think he's going to be a solid pitcher for the next few years.  Definitely think he'll be worth the amount of money he's going to be paid over that time.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

I have to admit I didn't think Hughes would even be interested in this given the season he had. In that, I think this was a no brainer.

[dxpavelka]

You can never have too much pitching.  And since we've still only made one significant addition (Santana) to the league's worst rotation I'm pretty sure we don't have too much yet.  Not yet worried about "blocking the young guys."  If we get to a point where it makes sense for the young guys to be in the rotation there is always a market for reasonably priced starting pitching.  And while Twins fans look at the contracts of Hughes, Nolasco & Santana as huge deals, a lot of big market clubs would see them as reasonable.  Much easier to move a 4 year $55 million deal than a 6 year $155 million deal.  As far as an extension for Dozier, I'd like to at least see him hit .245 once before I committed to such a move.