In Hindsight, Bringing Back Trevor Larnach Was The Right Decision

[Matthew Taylor]

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn- IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Twins announced Friday that they were placing Trevor Larnach on the injured list with left wrist soreness, effectively bringing an end to his 2026 season with just nine games remaining on the schedule. Barring something unexpected, it also appears likely to bring an end to Larnach's time with the Twins. Larnach will have another year of arbitration remaining this offseason, but after his salary climbs from $4.475 million in 2026 to what could be somewhere in the $6.5 million to $7 million range, it is difficult to see Minnesota making that commitment to a player who has spent much of his career as a platoon outfielder.

But before we close the book on Larnach's time in Minnesota, it is worth looking back at the decision the Twins made last January to bring him back in the first place. At the time, there was plenty of uncertainty surrounding whether Larnach was a player worth bringing back via arbitration. He had been a solid, but not spectacular, player for the Twins, entering the offseason with a career 102 OPS+ and coming off a 2025 season in which he posted a 101 OPS+. There was little reason to expect a major offensive breakout, and the Twins had limited money to spend after another offseason in which payroll flexibility was going to be at a premium.

That made the Twins' decision to offer Larnach arbitration and bring him back for $4.475 million a surprising one. There were two obvious questions surrounding the decision. Did the Twins really need another left-handed outfielder on their roster, and was Larnach worth using a meaningful chunk of their limited payroll?

Regarding the roster, Minnesota already had a number of left-handed outfielders on the 40-man, including Hendry Mendez, James Outman, Alan Roden, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Matt Wallner. Walker Jenkins was not yet on the 40-man roster but was clearly part of the Twins' near-term plans as well. The organization had plenty of players who could potentially fill the role Larnach had occupied, and several of them were younger and considerably cheaper.

That made Trevor Larnach something of a luxury. If one of those players could provide similar production, the Twins could save the money, give a younger player an opportunity and use the roster spot somewhere else. For a team that didn't have much payroll flexibility, that seemed like a pretty reasonable argument.

Then there was the money. Larnach's $4.475 million salary represented a meaningful investment for a Twins team that had very little to spend. Even if the Twins believed Larnach could be a useful player, there was a legitimate question about whether that money could be better spent somewhere else. Minnesota needed help in multiple areas of the roster, and spending nearly $5 million on a player who had never produced more than a 116 OPS+ in a season was hardly an obvious decision.

The 2026 season, however, showed that neither of those concerns ended up being much of a problem.

Start with the roster.

Larnach ended up being by far the best left-handed outfielder on the Twins' roster. James Outman was designated for assignment early in the season. Alan Roden looked overmatched time and time again, posting a season-long OPS+ of 84 as of the time of this writing. Matt Wallner was sent to Triple-A early in the season because of his struggles. Emmanuel Rodriguez struggled with injuries, while Walker Jenkins showed why relying on young players to immediately establish themselves at the major league level can be risky.

The supposed glut of left-handed outfielders never materialized into a player who forced the Twins to regret keeping Larnach around. Instead, Larnach was the one who established himself as the most reliable option of the group.

The financial side of the decision also looks different with the benefit of hindsight. The Twins didn't actually have another $4.475 million to spend if they had let Larnach walk, because they still would have needed to pay the league minimum to whoever replaced him on the roster. That means the real amount available to redirect elsewhere was roughly $3.7 million.

Could the Twins have used that money on another player? Sure. But realistically, what were they going to get for it? Another bullpen arm was probably the most obvious possibility, particularly considering how much the Twins struggled with pitching throughout the season. But Taylor Rogers signed with Minnesota for just $2 million. For another $1.5 million on top of that, they weren't suddenly going to be shopping for an impactful reliever.

And then there was what Larnach actually did on the field.

Larnach put together the best offensive season of his career. He posted a 121 OPS+, five points better than his previous career high of 116 in 2024 and finished with a career-best 2.2 fWAR. His home run rate was lower than in previous seasons, but he made up for some of that lost power by cutting down on his strikeouts while posting career highs in batting average and on-base percentage. Larnach sacrificed some power in favor of better plate discipline and getting on base more often.

For a Twins team that struggled with pitching all season, Minnesota needed to rely on its bats to win them ball games, and Larnach certainly did his part. According to FanGraphs, his 2.2 fWAR was worth approximately $17.9 million in value this season, while his 0.49 Win Probability Added ranked fourth on the Twins.

There were certainly some negatives. Larnach struggled defensively, posting career lows with -8 Defensive Runs Saved and -5 Outs Above Average. His offensive production also fell off considerably in the second half, with his .830 first-half OPS dropping to .703 in the second half. The wrist injury that ultimately ended his season may have contributed to those struggles, but regardless the drop-off happened.

Still, Larnach was equally as productive in the first half as he was disappointing in the second. Whatever the reasons for his late-season decline, the season as a whole represented the best offensive performance of his career, and the Twins got it for $4.475 million.

The Twins had questioned whether they needed Larnach when they already had so many left-handed outfielders. Those players never surpassed him. They questioned whether they could better use his salary elsewhere. There were no real alternatives for Larnach's salary number. And they questioned whether Larnach could take his offensive game to another level, which he certainly did.

That doesn't necessarily mean the Twins should bring him back again. Larnach will have another year of arbitration remaining next season, and his salary will likely jump into the $6.5 million to $7 million range. I don't expect the Twins to make that commitment. At that price, the calculus is different, particularly given his defensive limitations and the questions raised by his second half. Additionally, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins have made the Majors and will be in the plans on Opening Day Next season.

Last January, bringing Trevor Larnach back looked like a questionable use of limited payroll and a roster spot that could have gone to one of the organization's younger left-handed outfielders. After watching the season play out, it looks like the Twins made the right decision. For this season, bringing Trevor Larnach back was worth it.

What do you think? Was bringing Trevor Larnach back for the 2026 season the right decision for the Twins? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

 

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[HerbieFan]

Of course it was.  You got decent production and gave your very young prospects a season to develop while not having to trot out the Outman/Roden types every day. 

I mean this....thank you for your service Trevor and best wishes at your next stop.

[PuckettPond]

Not trading him @ the trade deadline was the wrong decision. Know when to hold them know when to fold them.

[NYCTK]

Counterpoint: Falvey very clearly was starting a rebuild, using 2026 as a bridge year to 2027. Keeping Larnach, Jeffers and both Pablo/Ryan was not part of that plan, but Tom Pohlad vetoed prudent baseball decisions for a short term, minimal boost in revenue. 

Tendering him a contract was obviously defensible, but starting the season with him was less so.

But, at the same time, he's never had much value and SOMEONE needs to play. 

[Althebum82]

Begrudgingly have to agree.  As bad as I thought the decision was to bring him back I thought it was even worse to give any runway to Outman and Roden .  But because they were acquired at the trade deadline it was pretty clear they had to have every opportunity to prove their inadequacies.  Happy to have Larnach prove me wrong, but sadly stills waiting for Roden to go away. 

[bean5302]

Larnach coming back turned out okay on paper, but it created problems with roster logjams that negatively impacted the team. Bringing Larnach back and signing Bell were both bad decisions. Neither was needed and neither was a significant contributor to the future.

Results-wise, Larnach was fine. Fangraphs and Baseball Reference have a wildly different view of Larnach this year despite both of them calculating him as a terrible defender. Fangraphs at 2.2 and BRef at 1.4.

[Eris]

I’m not sure that money is as big of a concern as many articles on TD seem to suggest. Between Bell and Caratini they had 14 million in salary.  

[Derojo]

Good analysis, and the Twins young OF's needed more time. As you stated, next year will be different. I can see Wallner as a backup OF'der. There's also Austin Martin in the mix which wasn't true before this year. He'll adjust to the pitching. 

[Linus]

I was against bringing him back but considering how things played out it was ok. Given the situation I would have rolled the dice with EmRod / Roden. It was a quintessential Falvey “floor” move which didn’t do much for this year and nothing for the future. Larnach is usually a league average hitter even while strongly platoon protected and not a good fielder. It kills me that we lived with that for several years waiting for his big breakout of 121 OPS+. If Zoll brings him back he needs to be shown the door. Ah hell, show him the door anyway. 

[TheLeviathan]

The error was in bringing back Larnach AND signing Bell.  This forced a terrible defender into the field and limited the flexibility of the roster.  

They then doubled down on this mistake by not trading him at the deadline when there was at least some interest in acquiring him.

I believe Erod starts the season with the Twins had there not been a change in direction by the ownership and Larnach would've found a home somewhere else.  Or Bell would never have been signed and Larnach would've played where he belongs at DH.

[SE23]

It's hard for me to applaud Larnach for what he is rather than lament what he isn't. He was our #3 prospect in 2020 and we were dreaming of a 3.0-4.0 WAR weapon.

[Andy MacPhail]

IMO, there wasn't any doubt to pick up his contract. As a platoon OFer he got the great lion share, which has a lot of value, As a prospect, Larnach was highly sought after, but as a player he lost his shine. So, they didn't get very interesting offers for him this season. He's undervalued; yet I expect Twins to shop him early this offseason & get more interesting offers.

[D.C Twins]

If we had been smart enough to trade him at the deadline, then maybe... otherwise no, he just clogged things up for the overall required rebuild/development 

[mickster]

1 hour ago, Derojo said:

Good analysis, and the Twins young OF's needed more time. As you stated, next year will be different. I can see Wallner as a backup OF'der. There's also Austin Martin in the mix which wasn't true before this year. He'll adjust to the pitching. 

Wallner is done in MN.   I would love to see Larnach back over Martin even if he is LH

[S Bart]

Larnach,,,yes to your question but not any longer. On another topic, I sat and watched the game in person last night with Emma (Simply incredible catch of reaching 4 feet over the fence to grab the ball), Keasch, and Jenkins in the outfield. The youth and exuberance put forth by those three was upbeat for me personally as a Twins fan. Yes, Buxton has been a great player over the years......but his age and possibility of injury (again) just makes sense that he should not be the key piece in the outfield any longer.  Bell will most likely not be back. Use Buxton as the main DH (he may not like it, but it is the best for the team). He can also be inputted into the outfield but not full time. I know there are Twins Daily fans that worship Buck (he has been a great player and I agree).....by why keep going down this route over and over again. 

[Wedman13]

2 hours ago, PuckettPond said:

Not trading him @ the trade deadline was the wrong decision. Know when to hold them know when to fold them.

Fair, but they tried.  From what were told, Houston  balked.

[MeleMouth]

I disagree. The whole concept shows how the Twins repeatedly err in team building.

You can't say that keeping Larnach was a good decision based on their season-ending record, so the thesis has to be that it allowed further development of prospects who weren't ready. However, there was one prospect who was supposedly ready to go, Alan Roden.

Therefore, keeping Larnach was the right decision only if they didn't want to give a chance to Roden, who was supposedly a prized acquisition during the fire sale. As it is, keeping Larnach wasted the chance to find out what they have with Roden before Jenkins and ERod arrived.

Here are Larnach's and Roden's Statcast stats, BB/K rates, and OAA. 

Player #1. 87.9 EV, 5.1% Barrels, 40.7% Hard Hit, .342 xWOBA, 11.4% BB, 13.9% K, 0 OAA.

Player #2. 87.7 EV, 7.5% Barrels, 36.7% Hard Hit, .327 xWOBA, 10.4% BB, 18.2% K, -5 OAA.

Pretty close, isn't it, with perhaps an advantage to Player #1. Who do you think is Player #1, Larnach or Roden?

While you think about it, I'll give you my opinion: keeping Larnach instead of finding out what they had with Roden while letting him work through his struggles was a clear mistake. A non-contending team should not play people who have no part of their future. Instead, it should be giving opportunities to different people to try to find out what they can do, such as the Athletics did with Brent Rooker. The Twins have now wasted their best opportunity to find out what they have in Roden, supposedly a key piece in what currently looks like a terrible trade when they sent cost-controlled Louie Varland to Toronto. 

Answer: Player #1 is Roden.

[Historyking88]

No it wasn’t. He had 2 decent months. They should not only have traded him at the deadline but there was no reason to bring him back. 

[tucana25]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Larnach coming back turned out okay on paper, but it created problems with roster logjams that negatively impacted the team. Bringing Larnach back and signing Bell were both bad decisions. Neither was needed and neither was a significant contributor to the future.

Results-wise, Larnach was fine. Fangraphs and Baseball Reference have a wildly different view of Larnach this year despite both of them calculating him as a terrible defender. Fangraphs at 2.2 and BRef at 1.4.

I agree that Larnach contributed. But to a team that ended up being terrible anyway. The logjam was obvious and a year later we know about some players like outman. I guess going into next season we think keaschall is in right? I don't know about the other ones. 

Upshot: larnach wasn't special on a bad team. The author is talking hindsight. In hindsight, larnach contributed nothing that mattered at the end of the day. Maybe one more $5 million reliever would have meant more.

[jkcarew]

Overall, Larnach was the very best version of himself in ‘26. Tip of the cap to him for that. After the failed trade went public, it had to be a bit of an exercise in mental toughness in the second half.

If the top/high-side prospects were anything other than left-handed outfielders, you might keep him around. As it is, he moves on in all likelihood. But he’s done his best to keep his career in the MLB alive. Best of luck if/when he moves on.

Meanwhile, the author gives the FO way too much credit by analyzing this as some sort of measured decision on the part of the Twins. But Larnach wasn’t moved in the offseason because Tom had just taken over and was running around like a chicken with it’s head cut off, screaming “we’re going to compete”, and firing the guy who had sold at the deadline. Nobody veteran-wise was going to get moved last offseason. Nobody. Everything was about counteracting the PR from the previous deadline. This was made all the more obvious at this season’s deadline, with the ‘mostly-buy’ approach under highly-questionable circumstances.

Think about it…they moved neither Larnach nor Wallner. I’d honestly say that’s closer to malpractice than smart.

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 hours ago, PuckettPond said:

Not trading him @ the trade deadline was the wrong decision. Know when to hold them know when to fold them.

This. 100% this