Luke Keaschall’s Position Next Year: The Answer Lies with Luis Arraez

[Greggory Masterson]

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

Luke Keaschall is 188 games into his MLB career. He’s a career .281 hitter with a .370 on-base percentage, and has stolen 31 bases at a 76% clip. The last time the Twins had a leadoff hitter this good was in 2022 with Luis Arraez, who hit .314 across four seasons in Minnesota. And like Arraez, no one has any idea where to put him on the field.

Keaschall has been one of the worst defenders in baseball, splitting time between second base, center field, and right field. He’s accumulated a league-worst -19 defensive runs saved (DRS) between the three positions, meaning that he’s been 19 runs worse than a merely average defender. Those 19 runs equal about two wins lost in WAR, as well. Even if you’re not a defensive stats believer, you’ve watched enough Keachall misplays to know that his defense is an issue. He’s struggled to read balls off the bat in the outfield, made poor throwing decisions, and his lack of arm strength disqualifies him from completing many plays.

Arraez never put up a defensive season this bad, but he was suspect with the glove for his whole Twins tenure. He was worth -11 DRS in 2019, with 9 of those lost runs coming at his natural position, second base. During his time in Minnesota, he was closer to average, though he fluctuated from year-to-year.

For most of Arraez’s Twins tenure, he bounced around defensive positions. He played second, third, shortstop, and left field as a rookie in 2019. He stuck at second base in 2020, but in 2021, he played more third than second and spent a little time in left field, and in 2022, he played first base, with some second and a bit of third sprinkled in. He also was the designated hitter 47 times during that four-year stretch, 42 of which came after 2020, when he was replaced by Jorge Polanco as Minnesota’s primary second baseman.

Because Arraez ranged from bad to middle-of-the-road defensively, the Twins felt comfortable playing him in whatever hole the lineup had in a given day. Sometimes this would change from day to day. At other times, he was filling in for an injured teammate on more of a long-term basis. But the equation was simple: he’s not going to be a plus defender at any position, so just stick him in the lineup where needed.

Could this be the route with Keaschall as well? There are a few paths the Twins could take next season to keep his bat in the lineup every day.

Play Keaschall Everyday in Left (or Right) Field

Analyzing Keaschall in a vacuum, planting him in left field is probably the most straightforward way to keep him in the lineup every day. This is especially true if there’s a belief that Keaschall’s ability to read fly balls will improve with practice; he’s only played 717 innings in the outfield as a professional. He has the raw athleticism to get to balls, and his weak arm is mitigated by moving out of right field.

The issue, though, is that Keaschall’s situation can’t be analyzed in a vacuum. Top prospects Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez have debuted this season, both of whom are natural outfielders. Adding the center field presence of Byron Buxton, the Twins’ outfield is crowded. Not only are all three players better outfielders than Keaschall, but they also probably have higher offensive ceilings as well (this is no guarantee, as Keaschall has set a high bar already, hitting about 20% better than an average hitter for his career).

Planting Keaschall in left field squeezes one of Jenkins and Rodriguez out of the picture when Buxton is healthy, and that seems not to be something the Twins want to do. Jenkins is a top-20 prospect across baseball and has played himself to the big leagues at age 21. Rodriguez, who has been on top-100 lists for half a decade, is out of options next season, and thus needs to stick on the major-league roster or be traded. It’s a tough proposition.

Send Keachall Back to the Dirt

The infield is also a little crowded heading into next season, with Brooks Lee, Kaelen Culpepper, Kody Clemens, and Royce Lewis currently penciled into spots and Marek Houston potentially being an option by midseason. But if any of those options—particularly Clemens or Lewis—were to be moved over the offseason, there could be room at first or second. Keaschall played some first base in the minors when playing through a torn UCL.

Arraez himself has turned into a better defender at second base after being given the chance to play at the keystone full-time this season for San Francisco and Philadelphia, accumulating 13 outs above average (OAA). He’s still been mediocre by DRS (-3), and the eye test suggests he’s closer to average than one of the best defensive second basemen in baseball, but given that he was moved off the position to be a 5’10” first baseman, it’s a very positive development

Many fans know the oft-repeated anecdote about how Corey Koskie was a dreadful third baseman at his debut, but after thousands of reps he became a good defender. Players can improve defensively, but it would be nice if Twins fans had a second example of this happening. Arraez’s improvements conspicuously coincided with working with esteemed fielding coach Ron Washington in San Francisco. It may be wishful thinking to believe Keaschall can make these same improvements. Maybe two years out from Tommy John surgery, his throwing will improve, but there are still other warts.

Play Keaschall Every Day at Designated Hitter

Many probably scoff at this proposition because of Keaschall’s offensive profile. But the most basic answer to “Where do we play a good hitter who’s bad in the field?” is “designated hitter.” No, Keaschall is not the aging, burly slugger that you might imagine when you close your eyes and think of a designated hitter, but he is a very productive hitter who can have his defensive woes mitigated by simply not grabbing a glove.

However, Keachall has thus far been a 20%-above-average hitter by wRC+, given his doubles power and high on-base percentage. The average designated hitter this season has mustered a slash line just 5% above average, compared to left field at 2% above average or even first base, which is 15% above average.

The bar for a full-time DH should be higher than a 105 wRC+, but even using first base’s 115 as a benchmark, Keaschall’s 120 career wRC+ is solid. It’s not perfect, but it’s workable, and it keeps one of the Twins’ key cogs in the lineup every day.

The Luis Arraez Approach

As a Twin, Arraez never played more than 65 games at a single position during a year (first base in 2022). The Twins could use a similar approach with Keaschall, though maybe not to the same extreme, or with the same positions.

Keaschall can play second base, the corner outfield, center field, and first base. None of them are pretty—center field was practically a disaster—and we haven’t seen him play first base in the majors. But in moderation, maybe some time bouncing around won’t hurt the Twins.

Let’s use this example as a thought exercise. About a third of the team’s games are against left-handed starters. Both Jenkins and Rodriguez are lefties, and even if you want them to face lefties, maybe you can agree to have the two rookies split reps in right field against southpaws, turning left field over to Keaschall those days. That’s hypothetically 54 games in left field without cutting into Jenkins and Rodriguez games against righties.

There are 108 games left in the schedule. Say Keaschall is the DH for 60 of them. He’s the team’s primary DH, but he’s not an everyday DH, which allows 102 days at DH for other Twins. Between games in left against lefties and DH days against righties, we’ve already accounted for 114 games of Luke Keaschall. Even assuming he will play all 162 games, you only need to find a spot for him 48 times.

You don’t want Keaschall being your second baseman every day. But can you stomach a dozen starts at second base? That’s two games a month. Could you bear the same at first base? Maybe there’s an injury to one or more of (perhaps the most injury-prone outfield in baseball) Buxton, Jenkins, and Rodriguez, and he gets some more action in a corner outfield spot.

Those other 48 games fill up quickly, even without accounting for routine days off. There’s probably something to be said for just sticking him at DH when he’s not in left field, simplifying his workload and keeping him off the dirt, but adding that wrinkle helps the team remain flexible.

The point is that it’s not easy to find a way to fit Keaschall into the lineup with the team as currently (and projectedly, for next season) constructed, whether that be because the outfield is crowded or because he doesn’t have a standard profile for a first baseman or DH. It might require some creativity to make it work, but one thing is certain: the Twins need to find a way to do it.

View full article

[thelanges5]

Buck, Jenkins, Emma, Keaschall - 3 OF positions and can all rotate through DH. 

[Jack Pine]

22 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Buck, Jenkins, Emma, Keaschall - 3 OF positions and can all rotate through DH. 

Buck rapidly  seems to be approaching the aging burly  hitter type you expect to see at DH.  That opens up the corner outfield position.

[Whitey333]

Its amazing how you cant "fit" Keaschall into the defense.  This team is currently 10 games under .500.  For the third straight year the choked in yet another collapse.  And you cant fit him in your lineup?  Hes arguably been their best hitter.  You still considering Buxton a core piece?  Hes 33 years old with very dwindling skills.  He needs to be left out of the equation.  Leave Keaschall in right field.  Let him learn the position.  Be patient.  Prospects arent instant hall of famers if they make it to the majors.  Look at the great patience they have with Walker Jenkins.  Im glad they do have patience.  Jenkins is over matched and looks overwhelmed.  Yet they rightfully keep playing him.  Why shouldn't Keaschall be afforded the same opportunity?

[sweetmusicviola16]

Why all of this talk about next year? Aren't we still in contention? 

 

I agree with whitey, you can't plan anything around Buxton. Let the kids play.

[AceBee]

Is Larnach staying? 

[AceBee]

Also, seems like we need to gamble on some trades.... Define the next core wisely and trade away other pieces if they don't fit. No point in holding onto them in the hope that 'this is the year' they will take the league by storm.

[mikelink45]

Luke has quickly become my favorite - Arraez was when he was here too.  Work with him.  He knows how to hit, teach him how to field - we have enough coaches (14) shouldn't one be a fielding coach? 

 

[StiltedGopher]

Jack of all trades, master of none.  Give him one position, the one he is most likely to improve in.  Drill him hard. As a young athlete, there should be improvement.  

[bean5302]

Arraez could catch baseballs. Luke Keaschall is the only player in MLB history I've watched who can't catch baseballs. Arraez was a solid fielder by most metrics. Low error rate because he had a soft glove and good fundamentals, plus good positioning which is backed up by DRS and UZR numbers. OAA hated Arraez because it doesn't reward fundamentals and it hurts players who have good positioning.

Luke Keaschall is incompetent in the field, and I'd be pretty surprised if he was ever passable. The best bet was to keep playing him at 2B and force him to get better. Instead, the Twins make sure a lousy fielder keeps having to learn new positions. 

I cannot wait for Zoll and Shelton to be shown the door. Cannot wait. 

[Coach]

Keep Keaschall in right field.  He's an athlete, plus his defense has been trending upward in right field.  The dirt would be a disaster again, and I don't think with his energy level he could sit on his hands waiting to DH.

[rv78]

The Twins way = move him around on the field so he doesn't get comfortable or good playing anywhere. The Right way = Put him in ONE spot and LEAVE him there. Duh! 

Shouldn't the minors be the place to find the best position for a player? This shouldn't be a problem in the majors.

By the way boys, tuck your shirts in, you look like the way you are playing, Sloppy.

[Old Twins Hat]

Keaschall is a gamer.  That means he loves to play, he wants to win and he will sacrifice in multiple ways to get there.

That's what a team wants in a player:  team-oriented, gutsy, tough, resilient, a full-on fighter for the cause of winning.

His arm is not strong, and that's hard to change.  He is fast and he can definitely get to balls on the run.

Everything points to left field.  I would start there and see how far Luke can go with it.

It ain't rocket science.

[thelanges5]

1 hour ago, AceBee said:

Is Larnach staying? 

No

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Jack Pine said:

Buck rapidly  seems to be approaching the aging burly  hitter type you expect to see at DH.  That opens up the corner outfield position.

Keaschall has the -19 DRS but people want to make Buxton the DH…..

[DJL44]

If you go back further, the authors plan is what they did with Killebrew. He was below average at several positions so they played him wherever they needed him. Of course, the DH role didn’t exist then.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Coach said:

Keep Keaschall in right field.  He's an athlete, plus his defense has been trending upward in right field.  The dirt would be a disaster again, and I don't think with his energy level he could sit on his hands waiting to DH.

Put him in LEFT field where his strengths (speed and range) are maximized and his limitations (poor arm) are minimized. Rodriguez has an excellent arm, Jenkins has a quality arm, Buxton has a fine arm...all of them are better potential RF than Keaschall. 

It's the biggest knock against Shelton this season: after Wallner got sent down he still left Larnach sitting out in LF and started sending out guys better suited to left into right, while leaving a player far better suited to right hanging out and not getting to balls in left.

Keaschall can probably play well enough in LF to be an acceptable 4th OF who also DH's often to get his RH bat into the lineup. With Jenkins & Rodriguez like on the roster next season there's still enough ABs out there and with both of them able to spell Buxton in CF (and they should be finding ways to give Buck more days off) there should be plenty of ABs for the 4 of them between 3 OF spots and the DH. Bell is gone next season, so there's room.

 

[Linus]

I dont know what the right answer is other than moving him around seems foolish. If he is ever going to be decent with the glove it will come at one spot. 

[TopGunn#22]

There is a chance Luke could improve as a fielder.  He's got the speed and athleticism to improve.  His arm is suspect.  That usually means 2B, LF or 1B.  Koskie was also a good "athlete."  Hard work made him an above average 3B.  But there is no doubt they need his bat at the top of the lineup.  I think Greggory lays out a feasible plan for Keaschall.

The Twins are at a crossroads.  I think they have to shake things up and stop the doom-loop of the same basic core that can't seem to get over the hump.  They have the potential to have a decent starting rotation.  But one of Lopez or Ryan needs to be moved.  I vote Ryan.  We can get a lot more for Ryan than for Lopez.  I'd start next year with Lopez pitching opening day, and depending on how the season is going for the team AND for Lopez, either trade him at the deadline or extend him.  But it's time to move on from Ryan and get some young talent that is major league ready.

The rotation for next season:  Lopez, Bradley, Abel, Prielipp, Kremer, Matthews, Rojas and maybe someone acquired in a trade involving Ryan.  

The bullpen (last night's meltdown against the hated Yankees dismissed) is largely on the team now.  Minter would be nice to bring back, and there's always hope for Festa (and with me Canterino) but with trades of Ryan, Ober, Larnach, Wallner and maybe Lewis there should be an influx of a few arms that can compete for rotation and bullpen spots.

I think Cody Clemens is better to hang on to rather than trade.  I don't think we would get sufficient value back for a versatile glove with 25 HR power.  Hang onto him and start him at 2B until Marek Houston comes up and Culpepper swings to 2B.  Then, possibly trade Clemens at the deadline.

I am also of the mind that the sooner Zoll is shown the door and the Pohlad's sell, we can get some new blood leading this organization and hopefully start a new and better chapter of Twins baseball.  The Labor Strife could either accelerate the sale or put it in limbo, but the stench of the Pohlad ownership must be cleansed before fans will give the team a chance.  The Pohlad's are the weight that pulls this franchise down.  You can't put the blame on some obscure scout or the hitting coach.  It's the Pohlad family, plain and simple.  

It is time to embrace the young talent the Twins have and could add, with the trading away of veterans who no longer fit the timeline of the vision.  Byron Buxton is also a player at the center of this equation.  The Twins could get some serious talent in return for him.  Buck wants to retire a Twin, but he's a hard guy for a team to plan around with the constant specter of injury hovering above him. 

There are better days ahead for the Twins.  But it will take a Pohlad family sale and a complete          re-ordering of the leadership and vision of the Minnesota Twins.  In the division the twins play in, being a contender is a low bar to reach.  The current ownership and brain trust has been incapable of meeting this bar.

 

[Eris]

Buxton has played a full season once in his career and has been above 100 games played 3X.  Therefore there is no need to worry about not having playing time for a 4th outfielder.

One item the article does not break down is that Keaschall has played a half season in the outfield.  Has he improved as the season has progressed. He has made some very good catches in the outfield (so there is hope).  He has also had some bad misreads.

 

 

[SteveLV]

Only options seem to be LF, 1B or DH.

He can supplant Lewis at 1B as far as I am concerned, but don't know if he can field that position either.

[MGX]

Prior to this season Keaschall had barely played in the OF. Mid-season he moves to the OF & they even try him in CF before moving to RF. The points about moving him to LF make some sense & maybe that's what is needed. The bottom line is most of his issues have come from learning on the fly how to play OF. He certainly has the athletic ability to be a good OF & if they leave him in the OF so he has a full off-season & Spring training to focus on that, there will likely be improvement next season,

The defensive numbers in the article are for all positions he's played this season. I imagine if we just look at his defensive metrics for RF things look better than including his time at 2B & CF. 

The bottom line is Keaschall needs to be in the lineup consistently.

[DJL44]

18 minutes ago, Eris said:

Buxton has played a full season once in his career and has been above 100 games played 3X.  Therefore there is no need to worry about not having playing time for a 4th outfielder.

With Jenkins and Rodriguez there should be plenty of playing time for the 5th and 6th outfielders as well.

[Greggory Masterson]

20 minutes ago, MGX said:

The defensive numbers in the article are for all positions he's played this season. I imagine if we just look at his defensive metrics for RF things look better than including his time at 2B & CF. 

Good point; I neglected to give the breakdown. Here’s his (innings) DRS/OAA/FRV at each position this season

2B (636): -5/-7/-4

RF (350): -7/-1/-2

CF (210): -8/-4/-4

[thelanges5]

2 minutes ago, Greggory Masterson said:

Good point; I neglected to give the breakdown. Here’s his (innings) DRS/OAA/FRV at each position this season

2B (636): -5/-7/-4

RF (350): -7/-1/-2

CF (210): -8/-4/-4

The Twins prize their defensive flexibility above all things. You can’t have a whole team of Swiss Army knives. 1-2 Willi Castro types and everyone else stays put 

[Trov]

As with any player, you need to balance the offense and the defense.  Is the offense so good you can live with bad defense?  Can the defense improve to passible?  Will he hit at DH the same level as defending, knowing many guys hit much worse as just DH than they do in the field historically. 

There is long history of terrible fielders getting to play in field because their bat was too good to keep out of line up.  You just hoped that their terrible fielding did not cost games, or at least the overall value was always a plus.  Clearly he has been bad on defense, and maybe LF is where he needs to settle in to minimize is faults there.  Maybe he needs to DH, get moved around to minimize his impact on defense, or just get enough reps to improve. 

His bat is what will keep him in lineup, and if it falters he will lose his spot. 

[HarmonK03]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I am also of the mind that the sooner Zoll is shown the door and the Pohlad's sell, we can get some new blood leading this organization and hopefully start a new and better chapter of Twins baseball.  The Labor Strife could either accelerate the sale or put it in limbo, but the stench of the Pohlad ownership must be cleansed before fans will give the team a chance.  The Pohlad's are the weight that pulls this franchise down.  You can't put the blame on some obscure scout or the hitting coach.  It's the Pohlad family, plain and simple.

I agree Zoll needs to go but I am not sure it is all on the Pohlads.  Most causal fans don't pay attention to the owner of the franchise is at least here in Minnesota.  They look to see if the team is winning or if they are fun to watch when deciding to invest time in the team.  I was in St. Louis last year for opening day and every fan was booing the owner during the opening day festivities.  I have yet to see that here in Minnesota.

Who knows if they are going to put the team up for sale or not, the latest public statements that they are hear to stay.  Who knows but the Pohlad family what the plan is.  When this team has had success they have had a competent executive leading the baseball operations, McPhail and Ryan especially in his first stint.  This is what Pohlad needs to do, find someone to lead the baseball operations and get out of the way and provides resources within reason when necessary.  Don't approve a large contract unless you are committed to the payroll for the next five years, this is an arbitrary number.  Then at least the head knows what his resources are going to be and build accordingly.

As an FYI, they only have a couple of scouts left, so hopefully they don't blame them for this mess.

[Coach]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Put him in LEFT field where his strengths (speed and range) are maximized and his limitations (poor arm) are minimized. Rodriguez has an excellent arm, Jenkins has a quality arm, Buxton has a fine arm...all of them are better potential RF than Keaschall. 

It's the biggest knock against Shelton this season: after Wallner got sent down he still left Larnach sitting out in LF and started sending out guys better suited to left into right, while leaving a player far better suited to right hanging out and not getting to balls in left.

Keaschall can probably play well enough in LF to be an acceptable 4th OF who also DH's often to get his RH bat into the lineup. With Jenkins & Rodriguez like on the roster next season there's still enough ABs out there and with both of them able to spell Buxton in CF (and they should be finding ways to give Buck more days off) there should be plenty of ABs for the 4 of them between 3 OF spots and the DH. Bell is gone next season, so there's room.

 

Target field's right field is smaller than left.  Sure, move him to right in larger ballparks.  How often does a right fielder throw all the way from right to third base?  He has been on target for hitting the cut-offs.  He knows the limestone.  Plus, he's righthanded.