Will the Twins Have a Single 3-WAR Player This Season?

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images

It's not an exact science, but generally speaking, the scale for Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in baseball looks like this: 

Zero is a replacement-level player, the kind readily available in the minors or waiver wire at any given time. One is a below-average regular or decent part-timer. Two is an average regular. Three to four is an above-average, very good starting player. And once you get to five and above you're talking All-Star caliber.

One way to judge the quality of a team in a given year is counting how many players reach that 3-WAR threshold. How many legitimate standouts stayed healthy enough to contribute significantly to the cause? 

When the Twins have been at their best, they've usually had several. For example, in 2019 the 101-win Twins had seven different players post 3+ WAR (Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton, José Berríos, Jake Odorizzi). Minnesota's had multiple 3-WAR players every year since the COVID season. And outside of that shortened 2020 campaign, the last time the Twins finished with zero 3-WAR players was 2011 — a disastrous 99-loss season that set off a multi-year spiral for the franchise.

You probably know where I'm going with this. (Especially because it's right up there in the headline.)

This year, with less than three weeks remaining on the schedule, not one Twins player has reached 3 WAR, at least by the FanGraphs calculation (fWAR). It's not clear that anyone will. Entering play on Tuesday, the leaderboard looked like this: 

• Ryan Jeffers: 2.8
• Byron Buxton: 2.6
• Joe Ryan: 2.6
• Brooks Lee: 2.5
• Luke Keaschall: 2.3
• Kody Clemens: 2.2
• Taj Bradley: 2.1
• Trevor Larnach: 2.0

It's very possible Jeffers surpasses 3 WAR with a good finish, or someone else with a great finish. But this could also easily be the first full season since 2011 in which the Twins don't end up with a single 3-WAR player. And that really tells the story of this team.

The transcendent talents suffered injuries that sidelined them or impeded their performance for nearly half the season — Buxton, Ryan and Jeffers were all tracking for that All-Star level 5-WAR territory. Two of them were All-Stars, and Jeffers surely would have been if not for a two-month injury knocking him out of action in May. Buxton and Ryan have each posted a negative WAR since the All-Star break; both actually did have a 3+ WAR at one point before lapsing into their injury-plagued second-half slides.

Among the players who've been healthy enough to play the bulk of the season, no one's been that exceptional. Bradley probably comes closest in my mind, but with a 3.95 ERA and 4.02 FIP, he's been more good great. (For what it's worth, the Baseball Reference calculation for WAR views Bradley more favorably with a staff-leading 3.1 bWAR.)

Keaschall's been a solid hitter but a big negative defensively. Lee and Clemens have been average-ish at the plate, with dreadfully low OBPs offsetting their power output. Royce Lewis has played a career-high 109 games and been worth just one win above replacement.

If the Twins are to improve significantly and return to contention next year, this has got to change. It makes the case against a status-quo 2027 lineup that features Lee, Clemens, Lewis and Victor Caratini as staples. I do have faith in Keaschall to take a step forward in value with more defensive stability, and of course, you're hoping that guys like Kaelen Culpepper and Walker Jenkins emerge quickly as first-division players. But it's putting an awful lot of pressure on these young newcomers if there aren't veteran fixtures leading the way.

Among the Twins players that have even flirted with a 3-WAR season this year:

• Jeffers is heading for free agency and all but assured to sign elsewhere.
• Buxton is in line for potentially serious offseason hip surgery, and turning 33 in December.
• Ryan is (in my opinion) very likely to be traded, so long as his season finishes smoothly.

This sets up the challenge for the Twins heading into 2027. Who's going to step up and deliver a full, outstanding season? Multiple guys need to answer the call.

At the risk of oversimplifying, winning over the course of a season in baseball is pretty straightforward: you need great players to play great, and to remain relatively healthy. No one was able to do both on this year's Twins. And that's how you end up failing to every shake a losing record or seriously contend in the worst American League class we're likely to see in some time.

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[thelanges5]

Find a defensive home for Keaschall and leave him there and he will be fine. Culpepper certainly looks the part. Not worried about Jenkins. I may still be dreaming about 2023 Lewis but I’d bet he’s got 3 fWAR in there.  Love me some Pablo Day. I’m looking forward to 2027 and beyond. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

If you are only looking at fwar - maybe there is a question.  Otherwise Jeffers WAR which the title states is the question -  is at 3.2.   With 16 games left,  I would expect a high probability he gets to 3.0 fwar as I think he will end in the 3.5-3.8 range for WAR.  

[old nurse]

Bwar paints a different picture. With Bradley, Buxton and Jeffers So it comes back to damn lies and statistics.  Use whatever makes your point. 

[Pykkman]

I agree with everything said here Nick.   With Joe “go big or go home” Pohlad,  where do you spend to bring in another 3 war player for next year?   Looks crowded with average/unproven players on the position player side….. 

[LastOnePicked]

Sooner or later, the lack of elite talent becomes an issue for a team trying to compete. Even a team trying to compete in the AL Central.

It's been clear for awhile that the Twins don't have elite talent on the roster. Free agency doesn't always help - even a splash signing like Correa wasn't an elite talent by the time he arrived.

Smart trades and high draft positions are really the only options, and the Twins cut off both of those options last offseason. It's possible that Jenkins, Culpepper and Lackey will be elite, but I don't see anything in terms of pitching that would suggest a dominant rotation or bullpen.

The plan for 2027 is hope - the same plan the Twins have unsuccessfully rolled out for years.

[PuckettPond]

Like a 1974 Ford LTD the Twins need a complete over haul. Starting bench players gives us this season's results.

[Eris]

Ty France has 3.1 fWAR. 
Mickey Gasper has 1.0 fWAR over 53 games which roughly gets to 3 WAR had he been able to maintain this level of production over the course of a full season. 
 

I guess this speaks to the core of the problem when 2 cast offs are outperforming the core contributors.  The Twins have an interesting roster construction problem. A roster full of players with 2.0 fWAR contributions is not really a playoff competitive team yet it is very difficult to improve on 2.0 fWAR production and Twins need several players who are going to get 3.0 - 4.0 fWAR production before they go for an average to a very good team.  There are currently about 115 MLB hitters with 2.0 fWAR or better (about 1/3 of the hitters). There are about 75 pitchers (1/5 th of the total number of pitchers) who are currently at or above 2.0 fWAR. 

[TheLeviathan]

---

 

[PatPfund]

I guess you can (and people are) arguing about Jeffers as a 3 WAR player, but the overall point makes sense. This team is better than last year (assuming they don't go 1-16 to end the year) with a lot more spirit than at the end of Rocco's regime, But the improvement was capped immediately by losing Pablo at the start of camp, and the injuries mentioned in the OP.

I don't see 2010 happening again, though, and a run-it-back team can't happen (Ryan trade? Buxton unavailable early and maybe late? Jeffers gone? Larnach gone? Bell gone? Wallner gone?). But a lot outside of WAR happened this year to give hope.

A bunch of young players look like real big leaguers (Keaschall, Lee, Zebby), Prielipp stayed healthy (knock on wood) with another personal record IP count, Culpepper and Morris came up and have been pretty good, Jenkins got his feet wet (hopefully soon joined by Emma), Clemens stepped up at both the plate and playing around the field.

If Jeffers isn't back (I'm not sure he won't take the QO), the rotation and 'pen seem the best place to spend some FA money; the org pitching cupboard in the high minors looks emptier than the position side.

[ewen21]

56 minutes ago, PuckettPond said:

Like a 1974 Ford LTD the Twins need a complete over haul. Starting bench players gives us this season's results.

This is particularly personal to me, because my mom drove a the cliche lime green 1974 Ford LTD wagon with the rumble seats in the back and the wood panels.  That car was ready for the dump before the Twins started playing in the Metrodome.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

45 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

 

Smart trades and high draft positions are really the only options, and the Twins cut off both of those options last offseason. It's possible that Jenkins, Culpepper and Lackey will be elite, but I don't see anything in terms of pitching that would suggest a dominant rotation or bullpen.

 

My guess is the Twins starting rotation and depth is top 5 in MLB next year.  

As to the bullpen - as currently constructed and if you can keep Minter and Banda comes back healthy to replace Rogers,  that is a very good bullpen.  Top 10-15 - significant improvement over the end of last year.  Gomez, Hoffman, Minter, and Morris as an extremely strong top 4 arms.  

 I still think consistent offense is our biggest issue.   If Culpepper and Jenkins can settle in to be all star level offensive players.   Culpepper has done well.  Jenkins appears to be adjusting just like Culpepper did, then this team is suddenly in a much difference spot.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

One can quibble with the WAR totals for players depending upon the source used, however, the fact remains that this is a team full of "OK" players -- which is actually better than some of the bad players we've had in the past.  "OK" doesn't really get you very far in the playoffs.  Someone (or several someones) needs to rise to the top and be that dependable 4 or 5 WAR player in order to get the job done, and I don't see a lot of candidates there right now.  A healthy Jeffers, Buxton, and Ryan could have done it this year, but of the rest, I'm not sure who is possible.  Maybe down the road a Culpepper or Jenkins 4-5 WAR year is possible, but they're not likely on the cusp at this point.  Lee and Clemens look pretty maxed out.  Lewis doesn't look like he's going to put it together.  Keaschall will lose too many points defensively.  Pablo will be coming off of (major) injury next year.  The struggle continues. . . 

[LastOnePicked]

I did a quick search for players that have hit 25 or more homeruns in a full season but accumulated less than 3 WAR. It's not a huge list, but there are some great names on it.

Poor defense and low OBP are the main culprits. The Twins could use a big bopper, but if '27 sputters, it might be wise to try to trade Kody.

He's had some great moments here, though. I appreciate what he's done.

[jmlease1]

Part of what you have to ask with a question about 3+ WAR players (besides which version you use) is whether it's because of talent or injury too. A healthier Buxton & Jeffers both get there in 2026 (and Buck was one who made it in 2025)

With the pitchers is particularly interesting which version of WAR you use; based on the design I've always felt that bWAR was more descriptive of what actually happened on the field, whereas fWAR was arguably a better predictor of future success (or failure). Taj Bradley has a BIG delta between his fWAR and bWAR basically because fWAR is saying he got lucky a lot and shouldn't be rewarded for it and bWAR is saying the result is what the result is...

Regardless of the actual results of someone finishing with a WAR over 3, it's easier to feel more positive about the direction of the team because you're seeing more young players on the 2026 roster and more of them are contributing. It's not that hard to look at Culpepper and think "that's a 3 WAR player in 2027" or "Keep Brooks Lee at 3B and he's a 3 WAR player" or "play Keaschall in LF next season and he's a 3 WAR player" whereas last season you might have only said that about Keaschall...

[TJSweens]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

If you are only looking at fwar - maybe there is a question.  Otherwise Jeffers WAR which the title states is the question -  is at 3.2.   With 16 games left,  I would expect a high probability he gets to 3.0 fwar as I think he will end in the 3.5-3.8 range for WAR.  

Jefferson has a 3+ war, yet the Twins have a winning record in the games he was on the shelf. WAR is just an amazingly overrated number. 

[Road trip]

30 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

My guess is the Twins starting rotation and depth is top 5 in MLB next year.  

 

Depth, sure, but quality depth is another thing.

Right now there is a chasm between Twins starters and the top of the league rotations.  Despite many injuries, the Dodgers get a "quality start" 52% of the time.  They are trailed by the Phillies, Mariners, Red Sox, Royals (!), and Yankees in the 40-50% range.  The Twins are below league average at 32%.

Now, maybe Ryan will be back and pitches well all year.  Maybe Pablo makes a full recovery and is immediately good.  Maybe Taj and Zebby and Prielepp and pick whomever you want all improve.  But that is a whole lot of "maybes".  Some will perform well, others will regress or get hurt, and the Twins will spend some time sorting through the alternatives.

I could see the Twins being in the top 1/3 of the league for starting pitching.  To reach top 5 almost everything has to break right, and they still won't have a Skubal-type ace unless somebody seriously outperforms expectations.

It's a mediocre team with a mediocre roster.  Average-ish players all over the lineup and pitching staff.  Hence, as the author points out, a lot of 1 to 2 WAR players.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

3 minutes ago, TJSweens said:

Jefferson has a 3+ war, yet the Twins have a winning record in the games he was on the shelf. WAR is just an amazingly overrated number. 

It means we haven't had other individuals perform when he has been hot.   Brian Dozier had 22.6 WAR on a lot of losing teams.   Thats not difficult to understand.  Caratini was as hot or hotter when Jeffers was injured and if I remember you had 3-4 other guys get hot.  As Bell has stated - they need several players to get hot down the stretch.  If they can string together a few more wins,  get momentum and confidence it could get interesting down the stretch.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

5 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Depth, sure, but quality depth is another thing.

Right now there is a chasm between Twins starters and the top of the league rotations.  Despite many injuries, the Dodgers get a "quality start" 52% of the time.  They are trailed by the Phillies, Mariners, Red Sox, Royals (!), and Yankees in the 40-50% range.  The Twins are below league average at 32%.

Now, maybe Ryan will be back and pitches well all year.  Maybe Pablo makes a full recovery and is immediately good.  Maybe Taj and Zebby and Prielepp and pick whomever you want all improve.  But that is a whole lot of "maybes".  Some will perform well, others will regress or get hurt, and the Twins will spend some time sorting through the alternatives.

I could see the Twins being in the top 1/3 of the league for starting pitching.  To reach top 5 almost everything has to break right, and they still won't have a Skubal-type ace unless somebody seriously outperforms expectations.

It's a mediocre team with a mediocre roster.  Average-ish players all over the lineup and pitching staff.  Hence, as the author points out, a lot of 1 to 2 WAR players.

Thats not a mediocre starting staff,  and the depth gives you immense options to rest and send players down for underperformance.  Plus you have several arms with upside.  Abel, Priellip, Matthews and Rojas all have extremely good stuff.   Top 5 isn't as hard as you think.  Top 3 is tough -  top 5 you need 4 arms to be really good - #2 or better type pitchers.  Ryan, Lopez and Bradley all have that ability and some pedigree.  You then need a #3 and then a #4 type arm.   You have enough players and those with upside and some with higher floors in Kremer and Ober to really pick how you want to develop this starting pitching roster.   Part of the reason the starts have been down is relying on so many young arms.    Rojas, Priellip, Abel, and Matthews have accounted for what 40% plus of our starts?    As they develop and lengthen out you will get increased performance and length.  

[Twins GFP]

2 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Right now there is a chasm between Twins starters and the top of the league rotations.  Despite many injuries, the Dodgers get a "quality start" 52% of the time.  They are trailed by the Phillies, Mariners, Red Sox, Royals (!), and Yankees in the 40-50% range.  The Twins are below league average at 32%.

 

Any argument comparing the Twins to the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies in a quality/depth argument needs to be taken with a grain of salt...

[Bodie]

12 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

It means we haven't had other individuals perform when he has been hot.   Brian Dozier had 22.6 WAR on a lot of losing teams.   Thats not difficult to understand.  Caratini was as hot or hotter when Jeffers was injured and if I remember you had 3-4 other guys get hot.  As Bell has stated - they need several players to get hot down the stretch.  If they can string together a few more wins,  get momentum and confidence it could get interesting down the stretch.  

Maybe, you put together a team that doesn't need 1/3rd to half the roster "hot" to play winning baseball. 

Most teams have players on the roster who can manage that!

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

12 minutes ago, Twins GFP said:

Any argument comparing the Twins to the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies in a quality/depth argument needs to be taken with a grain of salt...

To be fair that wasn't the argument.   Those are the top 4.  Who has the 5th best rotation?   For 2027  Mariners and Twins would definitely be in that conversation and injuries and underperformance will hit at least 1 of those top 4 teams.    Its an enviable spot for the Twins.  We just need a good enough offense to capitalize on the pitching we have.   

[LA Vikes Fan]

Arguments about WAR aside, this points out the Twins biggest problem in putting together a truly competitive roster for 2027. We have the complimentary players, but we don't have the "tentpole" stars around which to array those players. Put differently, we are really only short about 4 Players - a #3 and #4 bat in the lineup, and true #1 starter, and a shutdown closer. You know, the 4 most difficult things to find. If you think about the lineup and place each starter where they belong in a competitive lineup, here's what you get IMHO:
3 guys who can hit #1 or #2 (Keaschall, a healthy Buxton, Culpepper)

1 guy who can hit #5 (Jeffers, and he's likely leaving) 

3 guys who can hit # 6 or #7 (Lee, Clemens, Larnach (only vs. RH pitching, unplayable vs. LH, and also probably gone in 2027))

Guys who should hit #8 or #9 (Lewis, Caratini, Jenkins, Martin, Kriedler, etc.)

It's little wonder the lineup is so inconsistent. It doesn't work to hit guys who should hit 6 and 7 in the 2-4 holes. It's also hard to see improvement from this group to fill those holes. Maybe Keaschall could hit #3 behind a Buxton/Culpepper start but what happens when Buck gets hurt again or if he can't play after the surgery? The same thing applies to the starting staff. Lopez and Ryan are both very good #2 starters but neither is really a #1 and both get hurt a lot. Gomez has been a great closer at 22-22 in saves, but do we really think that will continue? Who knows. 

Who do you fix this? I don't know that you can but here's what I would try. Find out the market for Ryan. If you can trade him for a true controllable #3 or #4 hitter, do it even of you have to include a quality prospect or take on a multiyear contract. Don't trade him for guys how might someday be #3 or #4 hitters but aren't yet unless that's all you can get. He wants big money and more importantly wants to go back to California so trade him this off season. Try to re-sign Jeffers, even if you have to give him 4 years. He's the unquestioned starter the next 2 years anyway since Lackey and Tait, et. al. are at least that far away, and can be in a time share years 3 and 4. Try to sign a quality FA 2B, 1B, or LF that can hit in the middle of the order. On the pitching side, I think we have to roll with the rotation as is (unless Freddy Peralta wants to come) and hope guys take a step forward so we have a solid rotation of #2-#4 starters that carries us through. Scour the FA market for another late inning arm, preferably a LH. Frankly, AJ Minter could be that guy and Banda replaces Rogers. Do that and get some injury luck and we could have a 90 win team.

We're not too far off of a truly competitive roster but just running it back isn't likely to get us there. Time for Tom to put his money where his mouth is.      

 

 

 

[Linus]

26 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Arguments about WAR aside, this points out the Twins biggest problem in putting together a truly competitive roster for 2027. We have the complimentary players, but we don't have the "tentpole" stars around which to array those players. Put differently, we are really only short about 4 Players - a #3 and #4 bat in the lineup, and true #1 starter, and a shutdown closer. You know, the 4 most difficult things to find. If you think about the lineup and place each starter where they belong in a competitive lineup, here's what you get IMHO:
3 guys who can hit #1 or #2 (Keaschall, a healthy Buxton, Culpepper)

1 guy who can hit #5 (Jeffers, and he's likely leaving) 

3 guys who can hit # 6 or #7 (Lee, Clemens, Larnach (only vs. RH pitching, unplayable vs. LH, and also probably gone in 2027))

Guys who should hit #8 or #9 (Lewis, Caratini, Jenkins, Martin, Kriedler, etc.)

It's little wonder the lineup is so inconsistent. It doesn't work to hit guys who should hit 6 and 7 in the 2-4 holes. It's also hard to see improvement from this group to fill those holes. Maybe Keaschall could hit #3 behind a Buxton/Culpepper start but what happens when Buck gets hurt again or if he can't play after the surgery? The same thing applies to the starting staff. Lopez and Ryan are both very good #2 starters but neither is really a #1 and both get hurt a lot. Gomez has been a great closer at 22-22 in saves, but do we really think that will continue? Who knows. 

Who do you fix this? I don't know that you can but here's what I would try. Find out the market for Ryan. If you can trade him for a true controllable #3 or #4 hitter, do it even of you have to include a quality prospect or take on a multiyear contract. Don't trade him for guys how might someday be #3 or #4 hitters but aren't yet unless that's all you can get. He wants big money and more importantly wants to go back to California so trade him this off season. Try to re-sign Jeffers, even if you have to give him 4 years. He's the unquestioned starter the next 2 years anyway since Lackey and Tait, et. al. are at least that far away, and can be in a time share years 3 and 4. Try to sign a quality FA 2B, 1B, or LF that can hit in the middle of the order. On the pitching side, I think we have to roll with the rotation as is (unless Freddy Peralta wants to come) and hope guys take a step forward so we have a solid rotation of #2-#4 starters that carries us through. Scour the FA market for another late inning arm, preferably a LH. Frankly, AJ Minter could be that guy and Banda replaces Rogers. Do that and get some injury luck and we could have a 90 win team.

We're not too far off of a truly competitive roster but just running it back isn't likely to get us there. Time for Tom to put his money where his mouth is.      

 

 

 

This is spot on. My only concern is that, with a hefty arb number, Ryan doesn’t have nearly the trade value he had before. 

[Mike Sixel]

28 minutes ago, Linus said:

This is spot on. My only concern is that, with a hefty arb number, Ryan doesn’t have nearly the trade value he had before. 

Not even close. Oh well. 

[Brandon]

Despite the low WAR the Twins scored the 2nd most runs in the AL.  They do this by having a deep 1-9 lineup of ok to good hitters.  A bunch of guys capable of driving in 70-80 RBI each year with 15-25 HRs.  They usually have a few decent bench bats too.  No one great but lots of competency.  The line up is cheaper that way.  If we have an all-star it's because we developed him from the draft and minors.  

Our pitching is looking pretty good next season.  We will be competitive next year.  Especially if Culpepper keeps hitting and Jenkins figured it out.  Our lineup this year has 2 3+ WAR hitters in Buxton and Jenkins.  I will give them a pass for their impact while healthy.  Which is another point the Twins tend to hit real welll at C and CF and SS...  Which makes up for lack of stardom.  

[LastOnePicked]

4 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

My guess is the Twins starting rotation and depth is top 5 in MLB next year.  

Oof. I mean, I like the optimism, but we have ... what exactly?

#1) A guy who completely falls apart in the second half.

#2) A guy with a long injury history just returning from season-ending surgery.

#3) A promising question mark in Taj Bradley.

#4) A sophomore coming off a year with a 1.35+ WHIP and a 4-7 record.

#5) A promising question mark in Mick Abel, just returning from season-ending surgery.

Who am I missing here? Matthews? He just couldn't make it out of the third inning against the Tigers. Festa? Huge injury concerns. 

Top 5? Not even remotely close. This staff is not even close to league average this season.

[Nashvilletwin]

We went into the season with four, and only four, above average ballplayers on the team: Ryan, Lopez, Jeffers and Buxton.  All four do not project to be with the team (albeit one year from a 35 year old Buxton - so little value should be expected anyway) when the next window could open after a strike shortened ‘27.

What is the best case scenario we can expect today for a return on those four assets?

Jeffers - a mid 30’s to 40’s qualifying draft pick.

Ryan - with the strike looming, what will some give for at best a 1/2 season of Ryan?  Maybe a borderline top 100 prospect at best.

Lopez - see Ryan, except given Lopez has no data recently and his salary is higher, we wouldn’t get much for his last 1/2 season.

Buxton - zippo.  We never seriously tried to move him, despite the NTC, at his peak before the ASG.  Now, with the surgery, other injuries and the strike. he’ll be here through ‘28.

Sorry, but that is serious ineptitude.  It’s hard to make that up.