Are the Twins Really Holding Walker Jenkins Back to Gain a 2028 Draft Pick?

[Matthew Taylor]

Image courtesy of © Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

For weeks, Twins fans have been clamoring for the same thing: Call up Walker Jenkins. It is not hard to understand why. Jenkins, the Minnesota Twins' No. 1 prospect and a top-15 prospect in baseball, has been tearing through Triple-A since his promotion. Since July 15, Jenkins has posted a .934 OPS, continuing to show that he has very little left to prove in St. Paul. Meanwhile, the Twins could desperately use the offensive help. Since July 15, Minnesota ranks 21st in Major League Baseball in both OPS and runs scored, and this is a team fighting for a playoff spot with roughly six weeks remaining in the regular season.

Despite that, the Twins have held firm with Jenkins in Triple-A. The team has made plenty of other roster moves during that time, including promoting Tristan Gray and later Kaelen Culpepper, but Jenkins has remained in St. Paul. Maybe the Twins genuinely believe he needs more time in Triple-A—that there are still aspects of his game that need to be polished before he makes his major-league debut. I don't necessarily agree with that assessment, but at least it would make sense. If the Twins don't believe Jenkins is ready, there is a baseball reason for keeping him in the minors.

There is another possible explanation, however, and it has been speculated about quite a bit: MLB's Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI). MLB and the MLB Players Association (MLBPA) introduced that incentive as part of the 2022 collective bargaining agreement, in an effort to discourage teams from manipulating the service time of top prospects. Under the PPI, a team can receive an extra draft pick after the first round if a preseason top-100 prospect is promoted early enough to gain a full year of service time and subsequently wins a major award such as Rookie of the Year. The key here is rookie eligibility. A player loses rookie status if they spend 45 active days on the major-league roster or collect 130 at-bats.

That has led to the theory that the Twins' plan with Jenkins could be to keep him in Triple-A until late August, call him up once he can no longer reach 130 ABs (the 45-day threshold passed on Friday), and preserve his rookie eligibility for 2027. If Jenkins then wins the Rookie of the Year award next season, the Twins could receive a compensation pick immediately after the first round of the 2028 Draft. If he were to win the MVP (or be a finalist for it) in any of 2027, 2028 or 2029, they'd get one, too.

We don't know if that's the reason the Twins have held Jenkins back. There is no way to know what's happening behind closed doors unless someone with the organization says so. But considering everything surrounding this situation, it certainly feels like it could be a major factor. And if it is, I don't think it is a good enough reason.

A pick immediately after the first round is certainly valuable. We're talking about a selection that could land somewhere in the mid-30s, and those picks can absolutely turn into quality major-league players. The Twins have also shown throughout their history that they can find talent in that portion of the draft. It's not as though the potential reward is meaningless.

The problem is that the Twins would be making a pretty significant bet to get it. First, Jenkins actually has to win Rookie of the Year or become one of the elite players in the league almost immediately after his rookie year; that's far from a guarantee. The 2027 Rookie of the Year race could be extremely competitive, with prospects such as Kade Anderson, Franklin Arias, Leo De Vries, Ryan Sloan and others potentially entering the season with legitimate cases to win the award. We all think highly of Jenkins, and he could absolutely be the best rookie in baseball next season, but an injury or slow start could derail his chances. Another rookie could simply have a better season. If either of those things happens, the Twins have sacrificed weeks of having Jenkins on their major-league roster for a draft pick that would never materialize. That would be a pretty poor trade-off.

That brings us to the bigger issue: the Twins aren't playing for 2027 right now. They're playing for 2026. With roughly six weeks remaining in the regular season, Minnesota is still in the playoff hunt. The third Wild Card is within reach, and the AL Central remains wide-open. Nobody knows where this team will be next year, but we do know where it is right now. It has a chance to make the playoffs.

If the Twins believe Jenkins can help them win games right now, they should be putting him on the roster and giving themselves the best possible chance to reach October. Instead, if the PPI is indeed a factor, they're sacrificing a meaningful portion of Jenkins' first major-league season in the hopes of acquiring a draft pick more than a year from now. That feels backwards.

The value of getting Jenkins onto the roster and helping the Twins make the playoffs is tangible. It could impact the organization immediately. It could change the trajectory of the 2026 season. The value of the PPI pick is entirely speculative. The Twins have to receive the pick. Then they have to select the right player with it. Then that player has to develop. There are a lot of steps between keeping Jenkins in Triple-A today and getting meaningful value from that draft pick years down the road.

If Jenkins is suddenly promoted in the coming days, it will only add more fuel to the speculation that the PPI was at least part of the reason he was held back in the first place. He has amassed 122 AB (137 PA) since returning to the St. Paul lineup on July 1, so yes, there's still a chance he would end up surpassing 130 in the majors if called up today. They can avoid that risk by keeping him in the minors even another two or three games. If that was the strategy, though, the Twins have already burned multiple weeks of potential Jenkins production just to position themselves for a potential draft pick. I would have a hard time defending that decision.

The Twins have a chance to make the playoffs right now. They have an offensive need right now. They have a prospect who has been performing extremely well at Triple-A. They should be thinking about what can help them win in 2026, not what might give them an extra draft pick in two years.

Nobody is going to complain about the Twins receiving an extra pick after the first round if Jenkins wins Rookie of the Year next season. That would be a fantastic bonus. But the bonus should be exactly that: a bonus. It shouldn't be something that influences the construction of the 2026 roster when the team is still in contention for the postseason.

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What do you think? If the PPI is a significant reason the Twins have held Jenkins back, is that a defensible strategy, or should the Twins have prioritized getting their best prospect onto the Major League roster sooner?

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[DJL44]

It’s likely that Jenkins is currently no better than the players they are already using in the outfield. That’s not a slight on Jenkins. Buxton is an All-Star, the Larnach/Martin platoon has been producing and Keaschall has been doing well in the lineup.

[umterp23]

Twins mgmt team runs on a strategy of hope, which results in mediocrity and for a relative small budget organization (by choosing). Cardinals rolled the dice yesterday with Baez and he made an immediate spark. Draft pick impact is 5 years down the road on average, but hey let’s hope he can win rookie of the year!

[GNess]

Tough to know the motivations behind the Twins not promoting Jenkins despite the value of such thoughtful speculation.

Another more basic concern arises. If Jenkins is what we all hope/project. The Twins will want him to be one of the pillars of the franchise so keeping him in the minors despite his appearing genuinely ready for a promotion he has earned through performance is not a very wise way to treat him.

 

[Hrbeks Divot]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

It’s likely that Jenkins is currently no better than the players they are already using in the outfield. That’s not a slight on Jenkins. Buxton is an All-Star, the Larnach/Martin platoon has been producing and Keaschall has been doing well in the lineup.

I agree to most of this. I’m not sure you can say that Martin has been producing but your point still stands. The way this roster is constructed right now it’s tough to see where Jenkins gets bats every day. There is no guarantee he makes the team better immediately. Many rookies come up and struggle with their first taste in the bigs. Culpepper’s call up made more sense because it was mush more of a position of need and he’s not exactly lighting up the league. If they were going to call Jenkins up earlier they absolutely had to clear at least one outfielder at the deadline or move Bell so you could slide Larnach to DH.

[PuckettPond]

Twins are waiting to call him up when he can play all defensive positions.

[LastOnePicked]

This seems plausible. And yet I can see this provision being scrapped in 2027 after a long work stoppage. And the Twins will have held down Jenkins for nothing.

[Fatbat]

We will never “know” but it’s definitely manipulation so since we are past the lose eligibility date, they can still manipulate no more than 128 PA. Expect Jenkins to be called up this week. We are only a game out of the playoffs so he can immediately impact the race and playoff service time doesn’t count. 
The Twins definitely need more skilled players so saying TL, AM or LK are blocking WJ, is a bit of a stretch based on what may be a short term hot streak. AM is not on one atm and should be used only for late game PR and in game situational matchups. 
A run at next years ROY will be exciting but so should this years playoff run! 

[LA Vikes Fan]

38 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

It’s likely that Jenkins is currently no better than the players they are already using in the outfield. That’s not a slight on Jenkins. Buxton is an All-Star, the Larnach/Martin platoon has been producing and Keaschall has been doing well in the lineup.

I think this is the issue. Who do you sit to get regular playing time for Jenkins? It’s not one of the current OFs. 

I think the answer is one a lot of folks here won’t like - bench Clemens, move Keaschall back to 2B, and play Jenkins in RF. That would be a major hit on the IF defense, but if Jenkins hits better than Clements, which seems like a real possibility given Clemens is hitting about .180 for the last 6 weeks, it would give the offense a shot in the arm. It would also improve the outfield defense so maybe it’s close to a wash defensively? Yeah, I know, not really, but the way we’re hitting we need the offensive boost right now more than the defensive boost.

[bean5302]

0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000%

A team looking to make the playoffs isn't going to sacrifice the post season for a chance at a draft pick.

Let me not mince words. Walker Jenkins has SUCKED most of the year at the plate in terms of the kind of contact he's been making. 50% ground balls. 20% pop ups on fly balls. No power. Low line drive rates. He's been unable to square up balls or barrel them. While the TD Hype Machine has looked at his OPS and tried to translate it directly to MLB as if AAA and MLB pitchers were the same caliber, the reality is Jenkins has struggled to look like he belongs in MLB. On top of that, he was ice cold coming out of the Futures game.

Now, over the past couple of weeks, Jenkins has starting hitting home runs, the xwOBA is climbing, he's making far better contact and driving the ball with authority. There's a good chance he gets a call soon because it looks like he's turned a corner. The same way Marek Houston went on an absolute tear coming out of the all star break before his major slump over the past couple weeks. Jenkins needs to avoid turning back into the same hitter at the plate he was all year, sustain the hard contact, and he'll get the call sooner than later.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

If Jenkins were promoted today, what would the lineup be? Who sits? Buck...no. Larnach...no Keaschall...not even Keaschall, because he has been the Twins best hitter since July 1... Bell...no Lewis...no. Jenkins needs to keep playing in AAA for now. Give him a taste of the bigs when the 40 man roster begins September 1. 

[1985Fan]

This argument assumes that Jenkins comes up and is immediately successful at the plate. Even better than current guys. We’ve seen our current players take a long time to develop into productive MLB hitters, as limited as that is right now. Most rookies struggle during their first taste of the big leagues. Jenkins history is that he struggles immediately after being promoted to a higher level. I think it’s unfair to Jenkins to have such high expectations. You shouldn’t count on a rookie to step up and deliver right away, especially during a playoff chase. I think it’s better to promote him next spring, after logjam is cleared during the offseason. He’s not being harmed by getting more AAA AB’s. 

[SarasotaBill]

The 2027 CBA lockout is a critical omission.

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I say we bench Clemens (.186 BA for the last month, even worse lately), send Roden back to AAA, call up Jenkins, and move Keaschall back to second base. Defensively scary on the infield, but Jenkins improves the defense in the outfield. We need the bat. By the way, this also works with Roden - he’s also outhitting Clemens.

I’d also re-organize the lineup so the guys that are actually hitting move up. Here’s my thought for the lineup starting Monday against RHs:

Larnach LF

Buxton CF

Keaschall 2B

Jeffers C

Bell DH

Lewis 1B

Lee 3B

Jenkins RF

Culpepper SS

I think you could put the 4, 5, and 6 hitters in any order depending on who’s hot and who’s not. The real point here is to get Keaschall’s bat and speed higher up in the lineup so you can run more and create more opportunities for the guys behind him. He has a .429 OBP the last 30 games and over.400 for the last 50.

Against LHs, Martin starts but hits 9. Everyone else moves up one. Clemens and Kriedler are the UTLs and cover every position between the two of them. Caratini is the backup C, only plays that position and only two days a week. The other bench spot is the not playing half of the LF platoon.

The offense is in a funk. It needs to be shaken up. Putting Jenkins in the lineup in place of Clemens is one thing and adjusting the order a little is another, one of them may actually help. Can’t keep doing the same thing over and over and expect different results.

 

[Fatbat]

44 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

If Jenkins were promoted today, what would the lineup be? Who sits? Buck...no. Larnach...no Keaschall...not even Keaschall, because he has been the Twins best hitter since July 1... Bell...no Lewis...no. Jenkins needs to keep playing in AAA for now. Give him a taste of the bigs when the 40 man roster begins September 1. 

LK moves the 3B and sit Lee

[Fatbat]

@bean5302 There is a long list of rookies that have impacted MLB in pennant chases for decades. Most recently Baez for the Cardinals yesterday. 
WJ has dealt with injuries this season and his whole milb/hs career but he is currently HEALTHY and the results are very productive. Impressive actually. The Twins 100% need a better bat and defense in the OF.  Set aside the manipulation for the lockout/service time, There is no reason to keep WJ across the river. 
Throw him in the deep end. He knows how to swim. 

[USAFChief]

I do not believe Twins management is so stupid as to even give ROY eligibility in 2027 a seconds worth of thought. That cannot possibly be even a secondary reason for promoting or not promoting Jenkins. 

As noted above, he hasn't really earned it. Plus he's not on the 40 man now, which I believe would be important if there's a 2027 work stoppage.

[Greglw3]

1 hour ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I think this is the issue. Who do you sit to get regular playing time for Jenkins? It’s not one of the current OFs. 

I think the answer is one a lot of folks here won’t like - bench Clemens, move Keaschall back to 2B, and play Jenkins in RF. That would be a major hit on the IF defense, but if Jenkins hits better than Clements, which seems like a real possibility given Clemens is hitting about .180 for the last 6 weeks, it would give the offense a shot in the arm. It would also improve the outfield defense so maybe it’s close to a wash defensively? Yeah, I know, not really, but the way we’re hitting we need the offensive boost right now more than the defensive boost.

I'm not one of the people that "won’t like to hear it". I love Kody Clemens and all the clutch hitting he has done. But he’s one of the streakiest hitters I’ve ever seen Now his batting average has dropped into the .220s and I accept the ~ .180 for last 6 weeks. It’s hurting the Twins.

I’d do exactly what you mentioned, start with an outfield of Larnach, Buxton and Jenkins and move Keaschall back to 2nd.

Some days I might even play Roden Buxton and Jenkins as it was starting to look like Roden was breaking through, showing he could be a valuable hitter just before Buxton bumped him.

Clemens could play the Willi Castro roll except at SS.

I like Brooks Lee at 3rd as his defense has been superb there. I also like his bat but wish he would focus less on HR and more on line drives, which would mean stop chasing bad pitches - I think then he could be a poor man’s Luis Arraez. Now it seems like he wants to be both a high contact hitter and a HR hitter but it isn’t working.

I agree with the premise, Jenkins should have been up yesterday or 14 yesterdays ago. I thought we were trying to win but we repaired the damaged bullpen but then acted like the offense doesn’t need help.

[mnfireman]

There is one more factor in the equation; Emmanuel Rodriguez. Jenkins may be the shiny new toy that gets all the attention, but Rodriguez has been a consensus top prospect for several seasons, he just hasn't been able to stay healthy enough to show what he's got at the MLB level.

Rodriguez is already on the 40-man and is out of options after this season, and ineligible for another option season as explained here: https://twinsdaily.com/news-rumors/twins-minor-league/counterpoint-walker-jenkins-is-knocking-on-the-door-but-twins-shouldnt-open-it-yet-r20952/?do=getNewComment&d=1&id=20952 

I think the team needs to take a look at him sooner rather than later to see if he is a part of the future, as they are stuck with him the whole next season. 

[mrmpls]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

LK moves the 3B and sit Lee

not with a noodle arm - 2b  is his position  his defense there can be improved easier than any other location

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

If Jenkins were promoted today, what would the lineup be? Who sits? Buck...no. Larnach...no Keaschall...not even Keaschall, because he has been the Twins best hitter since July 1... Bell...no Lewis...no. Jenkins needs to keep playing in AAA for now. Give him a taste of the bigs when the 40 man roster begins September 1. 

Since 2020, the roster has only expanded to 28 on September 1. Most teams add the one pitcher allowed, plus an additional hitter. 

[jkcarew]

I think there may be legitimate reasons to not call him up soon…but worrying about how he fits or if he immediately makes them better don’t qualify, IMO.
 

This ain’t a pennant chase. Staggering toward the 6th and last seed in the postseason…with no real momentum…alongside no less than 6 other teams, isn’t anything. Maybe Jenkins gives you a spark and momentum, maybe he doesn’t. Does it really matter? At some point you chose to take the risk to move on from the comfortable, the familiar, the safe, the perpetually mediocre…to take a shot at something better than that.

Unless, of course, your roster includes a stupid and irrational mess of guys that can only play outfield, and calling Jenkins up only draws more attention to that fact. Then you wait until next year.

[Rufus]

 The Twins are trying to make the playoffs.  They have already rushed Cuplpepper to the big team.   He is not setting the world on fire at this point  Now you think they should bring up another rookie and put him in the lineup?  That is putting a lot of pressure on them,   It is hard enough for a player to make the step from Triple A to the bigs.  Dropping them in the middle of a pennant race and expecting immediate success is expecting a lot