Would the Twins Be Better Off Trading Royce Lewis?

[Sam Caulder]

The Twins are going to be one of the fascinating teams to monitor leading up to the 2026 MLB trade deadline on August 3. Regardless of how competitive the organization believes they are, the way this roster is currently constructed, it feels inevitable that some moves have to happen.

Multiple factors are going into that. An abundance of talent in the minor leagues and a shortage of fans and revenue have created a unique situation. They have more young players pushing for opportunities than they have everyday spots available, and at some point, difficult decisions have to be made. That's why players like Trevor Larnach and Joe Ryan have been mentioned so frequently in trade rumors.

Despite the Twins still having a chance to control him for one more season, moving Larnach now would clear some money off the books while also opening up major-league at-bats for the Twins' next wave of outfield talent. Then you've got Ryan Jeffers. He’s set to hit free agency this winter, and it feels very unlikely that he'll be back in Minnesota beyond this season. If that's the case, you're probably better off moving him now, rather than watching him leave for nothing in a few months.

Those are the names everyone has talked about. But every trade deadline, there are always a handful of players who get moved that nobody saw coming. I think the Twins have one of those candidates this year. It's Royce Lewis.

For a while, it looked like the Twins had found their next franchise superstar. Former No. 1 overall picks don't come around often, and when Lewis finally reached the majors, he looked every bit like the guy everyone envisioned. The talent was obvious, and when he got hot, he could completely take over games. He just wasn't able to stay healthy for a long while—and then, once he finally was, somethign seemed to be missing.

It feels like every time Lewis has started to build momentum, another injury has sent him back to square one. Those repeated setbacks haven't just limited his availability; they've also taken a toll on his production. As a result, his numbers have cratered. This season, Lewis is hitting just .213 with a .294 on-base percentage and a .676 OPS. It's the third straight season in which he's posted a batting average below .240 and an on-base percentage below .300. It's also the second consecutive year he's carried an OPS below .700.

At some point, you have to acknowledge reality. Sometimes, players and organizations need a fresh start. That might be exactly what both Royce Lewis and the Twins need. It isn't just about the offensive struggles, either. Moving Lewis would also clear up what is becoming an increasingly crowded infield picture. Lewis is no longer the young, up-and-coming prospect he once was. He's 27 years old now, and frankly, where does he fit long-term?

He's already had to move off both shortstop and third base, eventually settling into a primary role at first base. That transition alone says a lot about how the organization currently views him defensively. Meanwhile, the Twins have more infield talent on the way. Kaelen Culpepper should be making his major-league debut sometime over the next couple of months. Marek Houston probably isn't far behind and could realistically arrive sometime next season. Brooks Lee and Luke Keaschall are also still parts of that jam. Either way, the Twins are looking at an infield that's going to be awfully crowded over the next couple of years. If everyone develops the way Minnesota hopes (which, to be fair, they probably won’t), there won't be enough everyday opportunities for everyone. Moving Lewis could solve part of that puzzle.

It might also allow the Twins to stick with someone like Kody Clemens. Clemens has shown he can play a strong first base while providing better production, and both players still have two years of arbitration eligibility. If the price tag is going to be higher for Lewis, why not keep the more productive player while clearing up another roster spot in the process? It’s harsh to say that about Lewis, and I take no pride in doing so. But that’s the cruel business of baseball. It doesn’t care about your feelings, as nice as that would be.

So what could the Twins realistically get for Royce Lewis? By himself, not a whole lot. This is a 27-year-old hitter whose primary position is now first base, coming off multiple injury-plagued seasons while struggling offensively. That's not exactly the type of profile teams are lining up to acquire. At the same time, though, every front office has seen what Lewis looks like when he's feeling himself. He's shown flashes of being the type of player who can carry an offense for (literally) weeks at a time. His ceiling isn’t what it once was, but when he’s on, you don’t want to pitch to him.  For a contending team looking for upside, Lewis could absolutely be worth taking a chance on, especially as part of a larger deal.

If the Twins packaged him with someone like Jeffers or Larnach, not only would they clear additional money from future payrolls, but they could also increase the overall return in a hypothetical trade. Lewis isn't bringing back a quality prospect on his own. But as an additional piece in a larger package, he could make a deal more appealing for another organization.

It would certainly qualify as one of the more surprising moves of the trade deadline—not because he’s a season-saving addition for a team, but because of the context. Again, this is a player who was once viewed as the future of the franchise. He delivered one of the most memorable moments in recent Twins history, with his Game 1 homer off Kevin Gausman in the first inning of the 2023 AL Wild Card (the second one was cool, too, but the first one is cooler). He had the makings of a star.

But baseball changes quickly. Injuries happen–to some more than others. And eventually, there comes a point where both sides might benefit from turning the page. If the Twins decide that's the route they want to take, moving Lewis before the trade deadline would be surprising, but in my opinion, not crazy. 

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[rdehring]

Very interesting question.  We only have another what, ten days to see what happens.

Thought your presentation of the situation was excellent.  Like Lewis, I pray there is some G.M. out there who loves Wallner's power and potential with his team.  

[Ricky Vaughn]

Agree for the most part. If they trade I hope its to a National league team. Just in case he rediscovers his lost hit tool. If he does I can see him making the Twins life he_ _ every chance he gets.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

He is a sunk cost.  I don't see him improving in the future.  He made some progress and seems to be reverting back.  As a first baseman there is minimal value. If someone is willing to give us some value I absolutely take it.  

[bean5302]

I think Royce Lewis could be better off with another organization who values his skills and athleticism. I think Twins, under this front office, would likely be better off, too. This front office doesn't seem to have a place for Lewis, and wasting his skills and athleticism at 1B is a joke.

Trading Lewis has minimal value for the Twins as they've absolutely erased Lewis' value through systematic stupidity, but the move certainly could look like one of the worst moves in this organization's history by the end of next year.

 

[Major League Ready]

They would not get much.  Why sell low unless we really need the roster spot?   

[chpettit19]

He's in much the same situation as Rodriguez, just at different points in their careers. If a team is willing to give you value that'd reflect Emma as a top 50ish prospect or Lewis as a possible borderline All Star, pull the trigger. If they are only willing to give you a flier on either of them, you just have to hold them and do everything you can to get them on the field and performing to the best of their ability. 

Only other variable with Lewis is the money. If you're just going to nontender him, take whatever lottery ticket you can get for him. No reason to lose him for nothing if you can get something. Even if it's very little something.

[DJL44]

They don’t have to trade Royce to clear his future salary. He doesn’t have a guaranteed contract. They can non-tender and he will be released.

[DJL44]

Royce provides the most value to a team when he plays 3B. If a different team wants him for 3B, they will likely offer something better than keeping him on the roster and playing him at 1B.

[HarmonK03]

I think you need to give him until the end of the year at least.  He has been making improvements at the plate and I would not want to give up on him yet.  He was moved off of 3B by the team, he was not a butcher there and was making improvement as he got more reps.  It was part of a plan to make room for Culpepper, so he willingly moved to first and is looking competent there and getting better.

Lewis has an it factor that you don't have in any other player except Buxton.  It has to start translating to more production on the field but he is not someone I would give away.  And there is no replacement for him.  I am not going to count on Clemens to have another career year.  What he is doing this year is helpful but I am not going to move someone in hopes that it continues when he is already 30.  

There is no logjam in the infield, you have Culpepper and Houston close to the major leagues and that is it.  There are no first baseman ready to come up.

[jmlease1]

17 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I think Royce Lewis could be better off with another organization who values his skills and athleticism. I think Twins, under this front office, would likely be better off, too. This front office doesn't seem to have a place for Lewis, and wasting his skills and athleticism at 1B is a joke.

Trading Lewis has minimal value for the Twins as they've absolutely erased Lewis' value through systematic stupidity, but the move certainly could look like one of the worst moves in this organization's history by the end of next year.

 

Isn't the reality that injuries mostly erased Lewis' value and his inability to produce after getting healthy the last couple of seasons wiped out the rest of it? This isn't about the Twins not valuing his skills or athleticism, it's about injuries robbing him of both and him not being able to produce consistently without them.

He had a very good run after his minor league re-set...and is now struggling at the plate again. He no longer has the speed and quickness to play SS, and his scattershot arm has made it necessary to have a strong 1B to bail him out. He looks like he could be a quality 1B, so it makes sense to let him give it a go there, but if he can't pull out of this latest slump, none of it matters. And it's really not on the Twins at this point for his lack of hitting.

Systemic stupidity? Hardly. Injuries wrecked him and he hasn't been able to find a way with less athleticism in his arsenal. Let's not pretend Royce Lewis is still the super fast, super athletic guy from 2022.

[Eris]

Lewis is not worth much in a trade and therefore he will have more value if he ever figures it out. According to FanGraphs he has 2 minor league options remaining so he doesn’t have to be moved unless there is a 40 man roster log jam. 

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I think Royce Lewis could be better off with another organization who values his skills and athleticism. I think Twins, under this front office, would likely be better off, too. This front office doesn't seem to have a place for Lewis, and wasting his skills and athleticism at 1B is a joke.

Trading Lewis has minimal value for the Twins as they've absolutely erased Lewis' value through systematic stupidity, but the move certainly could look like one of the worst moves in this organization's history by the end of next year.

 

Royce lost his value because he lost the ability to hit. What specifically did the Twins do to cause that?

[bean5302]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Royce lost his value because he lost the ability to hit. What specifically did the Twins do to cause that?

The positional move from SS to 3B to 1B. It's $16MM of value for a full season. The "nobody plays nowhere" positional philosophy of this front office kills player value.

[mikelink45]

Think of him as a third baseman, not 1B - Pirates, Brewers and Marlins all need 3B.  He still has value - trade him.  Jeffers is obvious.  Not sure if Larnach is since his resurgence.  But Wallner, Martin, Lewis are all good chips.  Ryan has me in a quandry.  I hate giving up a good pitcher. 

[Nshore]

Although Lewis is 27 years old, he's missed a huge amount of time, which obviously has a large impact on development at the highest level of baseball.   Three years ago Buxton hit .207, as an example of how injuries can impact players - or even the improvement of Larnach - who hasn't been hampered by injuries.  If they jettison Lewis it would be a calculated gamble.  It all depends on the deal they can get.  It wouldn't be a surprise if he suddenly puts it all together.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The positional move from SS to 3B to 1B. It's $16MM of value for a full season. The "nobody plays nowhere" positional philosophy of this front office kills player value.

He stopped hitting before they moved him to 1B. He moved there in the minors at the age of 27 after getting demoted because he hadn't hit for 2 years. That argument doesn't make any sense at all.

He moved to 3B for some guy named Correa. And hit well while playing there until completely falling apart. He didn't fall apart when they moved him, he fell apart a year and a half later.

$16MM of value for a full season is nonsense in this discussion. You think other teams would be looking at Lewis hitting at an 80-something OPS+ for 2 years while playing below average defense at short and think "my goodness, we really need this guy!" Or putting up those numbers while playing a better, but still not very good defense at 3B and be begging for him?

Royce Lewis stopped hitting. That's why he lost his value. And it had nothing at all to do with him changing positions.

[Trov]

They could trade him, but I would not trade him for nothing.  He is at very low value point.  Will he ever regain it, maybe not, but it would only make sense to trade him for something of value and not just well he is not going to get back to his star status so lets dump him. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I love me some vintage Royce Lewis, but that is not the guy we presently have. I watched him run home with the lead run yesterday and he looked like a 45-year-old man carrying a refrigerator uphill. The two ACL tears have really hurt his athleticism. He did have an .842 OPS in June so maybe the bat could still play but he will always be limited in the field because of his previous injuries. I think it will be another year before we really even know what we have because it will be that long before he's fully recovered from those injuries.

Trading him is an interesting idea, but no contending team is going to want him for the same reasons we might want to trade him. I think the better move is to trade him to a team like the Angels, Giants or Rockies; teams that need to rebuild and might be willing to take a chance on Lewis regaining his form before they have to decide whether to pay him. You won't get much in return, but maybe he could be packaged with a guy like Emma or GG to get a controllable mid rotation starting pitcher, or with a 10 – 20 prospect to get a very good controllable reliever. I'm not sure that unique combination is available out there but that's a trade I would make if it was. I don't think packaging Lewis with Jeffers gets you anything worth having that you couldn't get with Jeffers alone. If the kind of return I mentioned isn't available, I think were just going to have to hold onto him and hope his physical condition improves enough so he can get back to where he was before all the injuries or at least to being 80% to 90% of that guy.

[Andy MacPhail]

Lewis was a very impact player, UNTIL, he said "he doesn't slump". Social media loved to take everything he says & run with it. Lewis, known as a vibe guy had a difficult time with the social media hype, which affected him very negatively, it really goofed him up. I had thought he really liked the Twins & could eventually sign an extension.  Especially, as a Boras's client, IMO, that's no longer an option. So trading him makes a lot of sense. But I wouldn't trade him now, his trade value isn't that good. IF I needed to trade someone, I'd trade Keaschal over Lewis. IMO, Keaschal is a more of a contact hitter but Lewis is better defensively, has more power & brings more than 4X less trade value than Keaschal. 

[mike8791]

The Twins must first decide who they favor after this season - Lee or Lewis.  Frankly, for a championship contender, neither one should be starters at vital offensive positions like 1B or 3B, but the Twins have no ready replacements for both so trading one seems more realistic.  Lee has shown decent progress offensively this year so retaining him over Lewis, who still has shown little consistency over the past 3 years,  seems a no-brainer.  Moving Clemens to 1B and perhaps an addition like Arraez as a short term 2Bman(assuming Culpepper and Houston are the middle infield from 2028 forward) should improve the current below average infield for this year and next.

So,Yes, let's give up on the Lewis experiment, get a decent minor league pitching prospect in return, and let another team take over the angst that comes with Lewis.

[bean5302]

20 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

He stopped hitting before they moved him to 1B. He moved there in the minors at the age of 27 after getting demoted because he hadn't hit for 2 years. That argument doesn't make any sense at all.

He moved to 3B for some guy named Correa. And hit well while playing there until completely falling apart. He didn't fall apart when they moved him, he fell apart a year and a half later.

$16MM of value for a full season is nonsense in this discussion. You think other teams would be looking at Lewis hitting at an 80-something OPS+ for 2 years while playing below average defense at short and think "my goodness, we really need this guy!" Or putting up those numbers while playing a better, but still not very good defense at 3B and be begging for him?

Royce Lewis stopped hitting. That's why he lost his value. And it had nothing at all to do with him changing positions.

SS not hitting is different than 1B not hitting, but maybe you disagree.

[Cris E]

Royce isn't valuable right now because he is scuffling at the plate again.  You need him to get his hat on straight and return to hitting, but mostly it's on him, the 27 year old guy in his tenth year of professional baseball, to figure out some way of staying in the zone and not cycling up and down like this. He's got options and we can continue playing this tourist coaching game by shipping him to St Paul, but really he's got to own the dead spots in his season. 

Part of the problem is that Royce gets his feelings hurt a lot more than he should, when in reality he's a lot more like Josh Bell than anyone wants to admit. You look at the ten year vet Bell and you see two things: first he knows he's streaky but he just keeps hacking until the hits come, and second he doesn't complain when he keeps getting traded, never gets the huge deal, and knows that teams need more from him and the fans complain but all he can do is keep hacking and maybe be a good teammate.

And that's the thing. I think Royce is coming to that realization. Who knows, maybe Bell has talked to him about it. But the fans sure haven't. They never got over the 16 grand slams in the World Series where he was awesome and the unicorns brought us all free beer and our spouses were all hot and liked us again.  He's not that guy anymore, maybe never was. He can't move in the field, his legs aren't the platform they once were, he is streaky as heck, his arm is stronger but still erratic, and his effectiveness comes and goes.  When he's on, sweet, but when he's not it can get tedious watching him reach for the slider away.  

If we can get some other team to see him like our fans do, get the overpay (eg ERod and Royce for Detmers?) But if other front offices just see a younger Josh Bell then we should keep him until we come up with a better offer at 1B (because Clemens is busy at 2B.)

[terrydactyls]

If the return is favorable, trade him.  Otherwise, keep him.  That goes for every player.  Just asking "should they" is meaningless without knowing the return.

[chpettit19]

15 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

SS not hitting is different than 1B not hitting, but maybe you disagree.

It absolutely is. But a SS who can't field the position not hitting is not worth anything just like a 1B who can't hit isn't. The position thing only matters if Royce can actually field the position. He can't field SS.

If the Twins put Austin Martin at SS for a season and watched him not field and not hit, would he suddenly be worth more because it says SS next to his name? Of course not. And its the same with Lewis. Not hitting and not fielding at SS doesn't automatically make you more valuable just because it says SS next to your name.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Trading Lewis has minimal value for the Twins as they've absolutely erased Lewis' value through systematic stupidity, but the move certainly could look like one of the worst moves in this organization's history by the end of next year.

 

I really sucks that Falvey and Zoll took all those plate appearances for him and turned him into a sub 700 OPS guy. If only Royce Lewis had some culpability in the situation. 

He's a poor man's Ryan McMahon with a similar bat and significantly worse defense. And Ryan McMahon, on a pretty fair, short and manageable contract (2yrs/32), was traded for basically nothing just last trade deadline. Why are you under the impression that Royce would be worth more than nothing if he were still at 3B or SS? 

 

[Otaknam]

I have finally concluded that it is time to move on from Lewis. He has had many opportunities to recover from his offensive funk, but I see no evidence that he is capable of succeeding. Every bat he lunges and is off balance, and clearly cannot hit a good curve ball drifting away from him. Stick with Lee at third for now, bring up Culpepper for shortstop, and trade Lewis so he gets a fresh start. He isn’t helping this team very much.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

For the MLB trade calculator he is a 7-10 million expected value.   I could see someone thinking he could get hot or they can tweak him to get to an all star level.   I could see something either as a 2 player trade, 3 player trade or being combined with Jeffers for a better player or prospect.  Its really hard to say and what I don't know his the Front offices opinion of him.  Do they still see something that they can squeeze out of him or do they think he is effectively done. 

On the podcasts they keep referring to 1 player who wished he was traded at the deadline.  I can almost guarantee it was Lewis.   We know it wasn't Buxton,  Larnach has made few statements and Jeffers has been the primary catcher.   

At this point its all speculation.  I can come up with some potential scenarios.   It likely has to be another high level previous prospect that hasn't panned out.   Yankees have several of those thats why I am tempted to think they are the most likely trade partner.   I know it was mentioned some yesterday but I could absolutely see a player like Volpe being swapped.   Volpe for Lewis straight up?   Would Yankees even want a Lewis - most likely not.    My personal preference would be Elmer Rodriguez for Lewis/Jeffers but I don't think they would want to do that either.   Jeffers and a prospect will likely be needed to get Rodriguez.  

[Colbeh]

I'll always stand by Royce - I hope he continues to get better and proves everyone wrong.

Non biased answer though is No. He's going to bring back nothing of value right now. Maybe a team sees the high risk high reward in him and flips a true lottery ticket player for him. No thanks we got enough. If you want to free up spots for players who can help over the next few years (Royce can be that) then trade Larnach, Bell, and Jeffers. 

Seems like everyone wants Kody Clemens to take over when in the off season they wanted him gone or as the very bottom of the roster player. Shoot even a couple months ago people were quitting on him.

He's 27 and has missed the majority of his ML career due to injury. Lets see what he has over the next 2 months while hes healthy and actually contributing. 

[HarmonK03]

1 hour ago, Cris E said:

Royce isn't valuable right now because he is scuffling at the plate again.  You need him to get his hat on straight and return to hitting, but mostly it's on him, the 27 year old guy in his tenth year of professional baseball, to figure out some way of staying in the zone and not cycling up and down like this. He's got options and we can continue playing this tourist coaching game by shipping him to St Paul, but really he's got to own the dead spots in his season. 

Part of the problem is that Royce gets his feelings hurt a lot more than he should, when in reality he's a lot more like Josh Bell than anyone wants to admit. You look at the ten year vet Bell and you see two things: first he knows he's streaky but he just keeps hacking until the hits come, and second he doesn't complain when he keeps getting traded, never gets the huge deal, and knows that teams need more from him and the fans complain but all he can do is keep hacking and maybe be a good teammate.

And that's the thing. I think Royce is coming to that realization. Who knows, maybe Bell has talked to him about it. But the fans sure haven't. They never got over the 16 grand slams in the World Series where he was awesome and the unicorns brought us all free beer and our spouses were all hot and liked us again.  He's not that guy anymore, maybe never was. He can't move in the field, his legs aren't the platform they once were, he is streaky as heck, his arm is stronger but still erratic, and his effectiveness comes and goes.  When he's on, sweet, but when he's not it can get tedious watching him reach for the slider away.  

If we can get some other team to see him like our fans do, get the overpay (eg ERod and Royce for Detmers?) But if other front offices just see a younger Josh Bell then we should keep him until we come up with a better offer at 1B (because Clemens is busy at 2B.)

You have made a lot of assumptions about Royce and what he is thinking and feeling.  Personally I see a player that is engaged with his teammates and seems genuinely happy when they do well.  Does he speak too much, yes, but if he gave the cliche answers we are all used to, he would be roasted for that as well.