Why Another Twins Trade Deadline Selloff Doesn’t Make Sense

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The 2026 MLB trade deadline is shaping up to be another pivotal moment for the Minnesota Twins. Sitting in the thick of the American League Wild Card race at the All-Star break, the front office faces a familiar question: buy, sell, or stand pat After last year's franchise-altering selloff, however, the equation has changed dramatically. The Twins already cashed in many of their most valuable trade assets, replenishing one of baseball's top farm systems in the process. If they decide to sell again, there simply isn't enough remaining on the major-league roster to dramatically reshape the organization. That's not to say Minnesota has nothing to trade. It just means the return is unlikely to mirror the prospect haul the club received a year ago.

Joe Ryan is the Only Franchise-Altering Trade Chip

If there is one player capable of bringing back a transformational return, it's Ryan. A front-line starter with another season of club control would be one of the most coveted pitchers available—if, indeed, the Twins made him available. Diamond Centric currently ranks him as the second-most valuable trade candidate, behind Detroit’s Tarik Skubal. Any Ryan trade package would have to include multiple top prospects and/or a controllable big-leaguer.

The problem isn't finding interested teams. Every contender would line up for Ryan. The issue is whether trading him makes any sense. There have been no indications the Twins are interested in moving their ace, and doing so would effectively wave the white flag on a season that has exceeded expectations. Minnesota has remained in the playoff picture largely because of its clubhouse chemistry, resilient offense, and a belief that it can compete despite last year's roster turnover. Trading Ryan would send the opposite message. Even if the return looked fantastic on paper, it would tell the clubhouse that the organization is already looking toward 2027, instead of trying to capitalize on a legitimate postseason opportunity.

Ryan Jeffers Could Help a Contender

Jeffers is another of the more interesting trade candidates on the roster. He recently returned from a broken hamate bone and is scheduled to become a free agent after the season. Catching depth is always at a premium in July, and several contenders could use another bat behind the plate. Diamond Centric currently ranks him as the 29th-best trade candidate. 

The Twins also learned they could survive without him. Victor Caratini and Alex Jackson handled the workload admirably during Jeffers's absence, giving Minnesota confidence that it has enough depth to finish the season if necessary. However, there's no guarantee that duo can continue to produce at that high of a level. 

Still, Jeffers isn't likely to command an overwhelming return. A realistic package could include a borderline top-100 prospect, along with a lower-level lottery ticket. That's a respectable return for a pending free agent, but it doesn't dramatically elevate an already improved farm system. Considering Minnesota is unlikely to retain Jeffers this winter, moving him would be understandable from an asset-management perspective. It just wouldn't be the type of deal that changes the organization's long-term outlook.

Josh Bell's Value Doesn't Match His Production

Throughout his career, Bell has been one of baseball's familiar deadline rentals. After another slow April, he has quietly turned into one of Minnesota's most productive hitters and played a significant role in the Twins leading the American League in runs scored. His bat certainly has value. The problem is that his defensive limitations negate it. Diamond Centric currently ranks him as the 41st-best trade deadline candidate. 

Bell is essentially a designated hitter, and contenders rarely pay premium prospect prices for DH-only bats. Even if Minnesota found a willing trade partner, the return would likely consist of lower-tier prospects, rather than impact talent. Bell probably won't be back next season, making him a logical trade candidate on paper. In reality, his value to Minnesota's lineup may outweigh whatever modest return another club is willing to offer.

Trevor Larnach Has More Value in Minnesota

Larnach has surfaced in trade rumors before. The Twins have previously explored moving him, but either opposing clubs weren't interested, or Minnesota didn't receive an offer matching its valuation. Diamond Centric has Larnach ranked as the 48th-best trade candidate. 

Now, Larnach is doing exactly what the Twins hoped he would. Alongside Bell, he has helped anchor one of the American League's best offenses, giving Minnesota another top-of-the-order threat as it chases a playoff berth. Could the Twins revisit trade discussions? Certainly. Would the return justify subtracting an everyday contributor who remains under team control through next season? Probably not.

Unlike Bell or Jeffers, Larnach still offers value beyond this season. Unless another organization significantly raises its offer compared to previous discussions, there's little incentive for Minnesota to move him. Even in the worst-case scenario where Larnach cools off and the team misses the postseason, they should be able to get at least a fringy prospect for him at the non-tender deadline this November.

Selling Again Would Send the Wrong Message

The Twins could trade Ryan, Jeffers, Bell, Larnach, or any combination of those players before the deadline. The bigger question is what those moves would accomplish. Outside of Ryan, none of those players are likely to return the type of impact prospect package that materially changes the farm system. Minnesota already completed that work during last year's deadline. What's left are complementary pieces whose value is greater to a club chasing a postseason berth than it is on the trade market.

More importantly, another selloff would send a clear message to the clubhouse. After fighting their way into contention and entering the All-Star break fueled by confidence and momentum, dealing away productive veterans would suggest the front office no longer believes this team is capable of making a run.

The Twins may not be aggressive buyers at this year's deadline, but they also don't have much reason to become sellers. The organization's biggest replenishment has already happened. Now, the focus should be on seeing just how far this surprising group can carry itself in October—or even on bolstering the team for that stretch run.

---

Does it make sense for the Twins to hold on to all these players? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

View full article

[Mike Sixel]

A top 100 prospect always makes the farm stronger. That's got to be the worst take you've ever posted. This is exactly how they got Ryan in the first place. 

Larnach is really valuable, but only to this team? How can he be super valuable then?

[LyleCole]

It actually does make a lot of sense.

First, this team is mediocre at best.  It isn't a real contender and it will not be if the ownership maintains their usual roster budgeting.  

Second, several of the players trade values are about as high as they will ever be, while the risk of injury or play set back remains.   Joe Ryan with a full year of team control will create a huge potential market and bring back significant value.  A player like Larnach, whom just about everyone wanted gone before the season starts, has a year of team control left and is hitting better than ever.  I would add Buxton to that list because for a real contender he is on a budget salary vs. his value although his salary is a mountain to the Minnesota ownership.   THe trade value of these players will never be greater, and all of them will be more than 30 years old next season.

Third,  players like Larnach etc will cost even more money next season and they are blocking the paths of several prospects.  I would add Jeffers here with the drafting of Lackey, to a lesser extent Tilley.  

So, unless this ownership group has had a change in heart and is willing to spend market rates for free agents and potential trade acquisitions i.e. players wit $20 and even $30 million annual contract value, the absolute best move is to trade these high value players at their peak value to set up the prospects for the next rebuild around Jenkins, Lackey, Rodriguez, Culpepper, etc.   

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not sure I disagree about messaging, but I'm not sure anyone is buying tickets this year no matter what, other than an unreal run..

[shimrod]

Materially changing the farm system? That's a mighty high bar for any trade; a straw man argument against trading.

I'll settle for adding talent to the system, ideally at positions of weakness. No more left handed outfielders. 

The team has outperformed my expectations but that doesn't make them playoff contenders. There's still a large talent differential between MN and the top teams. Working to reduce that gap by trading pending free agents is smart baseball.

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

If they do start losing and flip to selling instead of buying because of it, trading guys that are in their last year of their deal or have one remaining is perfectly normal. Arguably they have a ton of guys at AAA who are ready for their spots anyway, which is also perfectly normal. 

It doesn't mean they would have 11 trades like last year IF that is the case. But IF that is the route they do go, it's perfectly reasonable to expect some additions to their organization via trade.

That absolute worst case scenario is both not buying or selling. That would be a disaster. Hopefully they pick a lane and go down that lane. My optimistic view is they continue to play well and do add instead of sell. But I'd be perfectly fine if they can move a few pieces who won't be with the team in 2027 while also buying some help for this year in positions of need.

[mnfireman]

Ryan - Should not be traded, too many question marks in next year's rotation, Lopez, Abel, and Festa will be coming off of injuries, Matthews and Prielipp have had mixed results, and there isn't anybody I see at AAA knocking the door down (or even knocking on the door, for that matter).

Jeffers - If they get the offer they want, trade him, if not keep him. Do not trade him just for the sake of trading him. He's not blocking anyone, there is no C at AAA or AA that should be called up.

Bell - Same as Jeffers, if you get an acceptable offer, take it. The team can't really afford a DH only type player, but Shelton seems to have figured out the defensive alignment, and sits Bell only if he feels Buxton needs a day off in the field. As long as he is producing, keep him here.

Larnach - Should be made available, but only if the team falls out of contention over the next 2 1/2 weeks. He's producing as the strong side platoon bat, and his fielding is passable right now. He won't bring back a big return, probably a High A or AA player, but could be an interesting add-on in a Jeffers or Bell trade.

Buxton - NOT GOING ANYWHERE, he's said, the team has said it....

[Dman]

I think you first need to determine is this team a playoff team, because that sets the trade calculus.  If they fall behind and what they did previously looks unsustainable why not trade what assets you have for future value?  At the very least getting something for Jeffers and Bell who won't be on the team next year would make sense. They could hang onto Ryan if they think this team will be more complete next year.

If they are a wild card team or within a game or two then sure I can see keeping Bell around because he is the kind of deadline bat you pick up when you are going for it.  Same for Larnach as it's hard to find an .800 OPS bat even if only against righties.  

Jeffers is a very odd case scenario even if going for it as it seems they will need to keep three catchers on the roster or give up on the value in years and dollars they got with the Jackson trade.  Someone has to go and while Jeffers is a big bat it seems like they should try and get some future value from him before he leaves.  If they can get a solid deal it makes sense to trade him regardless IMO.

Ryan will never have a higher trade value than at this deadline.  If you want a haul this would be the time to do it.  If you want go for it then you need to keep him.  I will say with Rodriguez, Roden and Jenkins ready for the outfield and Culpepper and Houston on the way I'm not sure how much the Twins need more infield or outfield prospect depth.  And I'm not sure what teams would want to give up multiple good arms or have the requisite arms to make a Ryan trade worth it. Trading him certainly would restock the farm with young talent, but losing him is a big hole for this teams chances this year and next.  

So yeah I can see hanging onto most of these guys or trading all of them.  It just depends on how you see the present and the future of this team.

[Linus]

I categorically disagree with this whole piece. The Twins are in this race simply because the AL is a mess. Winning organizations have the courage to make decisions that improve the long term ability to compete by maximizing their trade assets instead of chasing poor odds  to get swept out in the first round of the playoffs. Don’t worry though the Twins are likely to follow your plan ensuring more mediocrity for several more years. The idea that the farm system can’t be improved is flat out ridiculous. 

[TL]

I agree on pretty much everything in the article, except I’d probably (though reluctantly) trade Larnach. There seems to be several teams that could be interested and it feels like Jenkins/Keaschall/Roden trio could about replicate his offense with much better defense. You can then trade those prospects or others from your system for more pitching help (would not surprise me to see Zoll go semi-big for a starter).

Jeffers could certainly help a contending team - us! It will be a huge benefit to keep two productive catchers rested, plus Caratini can sub in for Lewis against tough righties. 

And as long as they are in contention Ryan is untouchable. Reconsider a trade in the offseason if you must, but for now he’s our shot at a playoff berth and a series win. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Another thought; when Buxton comes back, it's very much a numbers game. Even if they trade Larnach (for example) the outfield then is Roden/Martin, Buxton and Keaschall right now. That's perfectly fine, right? But IF Jenkins comes up (which I do think happens at some point) then you do have to think about the idea of moving Bell to ensure that the outfield mix can all take turns dh'ing right? Not that they have to move Bell, but I could see the idea of it depending on the return.

Anyway, lots of moving parts too, so trading some guys with the intention of making room for players that are ready also makes sense.