The Twins Need to Trade Joe Ryan at the Deadline

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

Joe Ryan has been everything the Minnesota Twins could have hoped for this season.

Through his first 64 1/3 innings, the right-hander has posted a sub-3.00 ERA while striking out 70 hitters and establishing himself as one of the most reliable starters in the American League. He's coming off a stretch of five consecutive quality starts (excluding the outing where he threw just nine pitches) and has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of them.

The advanced metrics suggest his success is no fluke, either. Ryan's expected ERA sits below his actual ERA, while his FIP is even lower. The underlying numbers paint the picture of a pitcher who has legitimately taken another step forward in 2026.

Put simply, Joe Ryan has pitched like an ace. And that's exactly why the Twins should consider trading him.

That might sound counterintuitive. But Ryan's combination of performance, affordability, and remaining control is precisely what would make him one of the most coveted players on the trade market.

If the Twins decide they aren't positioned to seriously contend in the near future, there may never be a better opportunity to maximize the value of one of their most important assets. One of the biggest reasons why is Ryan's contract situation.

If he were approaching free agency, the decision would be relatively straightforward. The Twins would either keep him for a playoff push or move him for whatever return they could get before losing him. But that's not the situation here. Ryan isn’t an unrestricted free agent until 2028, meaning whatever team (hypothetically) acquired him would be getting him beyond this year.

Acquiring a frontline starter for one postseason run is valuable. Acquiring one for multiple seasons is something entirely different. That's why teams are often willing to pay a premium for pitchers in Ryan's position. 

They're buying a pitcher who can slot near the top of the rotation immediately. They're buying cost-controlled production, and a player they don't have to compete for on the open market for multiple years.

Those players rarely become available. And when they do, bidding wars tend to follow. A recent example (to an extent) is the Garrett Crochet trade.

When the White Sox moved Crochet to Boston, they landed four prospects in return, including a pair who ranked highly on Top-100 lists. While Ryan wouldn't command quite that level of return, the comparison illustrates the type of value that frontline pitching can generate.

The Twins could realistically target a package built around a Top-100 prospect and additional high-upside talent. More importantly, they would likely have multiple teams competing to make those offers.

The market for starting pitching is almost always aggressive, and there are plenty of contenders that could use help.

Teams like the Braves, Padres, Yankees, Diamondbacks and Brewers are all teams firmly in the postseason hunt that could really use a top-of-the-rotation starter like Ryan. There are probably several other clubs that would get involved as well.

The point is that the Twins wouldn't be negotiating from a position of weakness. They would be negotiating from a position of strength. If Ryan were made available, Minnesota could afford to be selective. The front office could compare offers, identify the prospects they like the most, and ultimately choose the package that best fits the organization's long-term vision.

That's a luxury many sellers don't have. Of course, none of this means trading Ryan would be easy. In fact, it would probably be one of the most difficult decisions the front office could make.

Ryan is a popular name. He's developed into exactly the type of pitcher every team wants leading its rotation. Trading players like that is never fun.

But front offices have to separate emotion from evaluation. The question isn't whether Joe Ryan is good; the answer to that is obvious. The question is whether keeping Joe Ryan gives the Twins a better chance to build a championship-caliber roster than trading him for a significant haul of young talent.

That's where things become more complicated. If the Twins were clearly positioned to compete for a World Series over the next couple years, holding onto Ryan would be an easy decision. You keep great players when you're trying to win championships.

But if the organization believes it's still several pieces away, then Ryan becomes something different. He becomes an opportunity to add multiple young players and improve the organization's long-term outlook. An opportunity to accelerate a retooling process without committing to a full rebuild.

And while Ryan is still relatively young, there's also the reality that pitcher value can change quickly.

Pitchers get hurt, performance fluctuates, and circumstances change. There's no guarantee Ryan's trade value will ever be higher than it is right now. That's what makes this summer so intriguing.

The Twins have one of the most valuable trade assets in baseball. They have a pitcher performing at an ace level, multiple years of team control remaining, and a market that would almost certainly be filled with interested buyers.

Whether the front office ultimately agrees is another question entirely. They may view Ryan as a foundational piece worth building around, and that's a reasonable position to take.

But at the very least, the Twins should strongly consider the possibility. Because as difficult as it would be to trade a pitcher as good as Joe Ryan, the return might ultimately do more for the future of the franchise than keeping him ever could.

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[C-Gangster]

Absolutely not! 

[Nshore]

The Twins will trade Ryan because they are in the subgroup of ML teams that are AAAA development teams for the rest of the league.

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, Sam Caulder said:

 

Front offices have to separate emotion from evaluation. The question isn't whether Joe Ryan is good; the answer to that is obvious. The question is whether keeping Joe Ryan gives the Twins a better chance to build a championship-caliber roster than trading him for a significant haul of young talent.

 

The most successful modest revenue teams know this, and their actions very clearly demonstrate that they agree with you.  History is very clear if we bother to look into how these organizations have acquired their talent.  We can't complain that Cleveland or Milwaukee consistently puts a much better product on the field and then insist they follow practices that completely contradict the practices that have promoted their success.  I pray he stays healthy and we can make the right deal.  It won't help that there are a fewer number of teams than most years with a realistic shot at doing something in the playoffs.   

[Rick Blaine]

Extend Joe Ryan to show some good faith. 

[Hrbeks Divot]

The front office has two months to negotiate a long term deal with him. If they can’t get it done they should evaluate the deals and take the one that aligns with their build plan the best. I’d hate to see him go but with the labor uncertainty I don’t think they can wait until the offseason to move him.

[karcherd]

Why do we need more prospects, we either don't develop or play the ones we have now.  So let's just load up on some more to sit behind the AAAA types and aging vets.

I don't want Zoll anywhere near making this type of decision for this organization.  We need someone leading baseball operations who knows what they are doing.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I still cling to the probably forlorn hope that Ryan can be re-signed by the Twins. In the more likely event that they can't get him to stay or simply won't pay the freight, trading him is the only other logical answer. The questions is - trade him at the 2026 trade deadline or in the off season?   Or, put more accurately IMO, when can you get not just high upside talent but high upside talent that is ready to go into the Majors right away? I don't think we should trade him for guys in A or even AA Ball unless the latter is someone who can skip AAA and come straight to the parent club. We shouldn't be trading Ryan for guys that can help us in 2029 and beyond; we should be trading for guys that can play something close to full-time in 2027 and be foundational pieces in 2028 and beyond. Ideally, we should trade him for one or more cost controlled players that have already shown they can hit MLB pitching to a least a certain extent that have been upside of being a middle of the order bat. That may be a more likely scenario in the off-season than at the deadline when teams tend to only want to trade away high upside players that are least a couple of years away. To me, that is an inadequate return. If that's all that's offered, I would wait until the off-season.

This is of course all complicated by the impending lockout and what happens to people's contracts if there is no 2027 season or shortened one, if they change the free agency rules, if there's a cap and floor system, etc. Frankly, I think that impacts everybody's trade value in Ryan's position since there's no guarantee that you're actually trading for a guy for a full 2027 season. I think that may make deadline trays a little less interesting for guys like Ryan.

[Vanimal46]

15 minutes ago, Rick Blaine said:

Extend Joe Ryan to show some good faith. 

That would require him wanting to stay here. Why would he? 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Wait a minute.  You want to trade Joe Ryan for one top 100 prospect and change?   Nope.  Trading a guy (or not) is ALWAYS dependent on return.  Go ahead and trade him, but the return needs to be much more substantial than that.  Otherwise, he can play another year for the home team.  

[Vanimal46]

27 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The most successful modest revenue teams know this, and their actions very clearly demonstrate that they agree with you.  History is very clear if we bother to look into how these organizations have acquired their talent.  We can't complain that Cleveland or Milwaukee consistently puts a much better product on the field and then insist they follow practices that completely contradict the practices that have promoted their success.  I pray he stays healthy and we can make the right deal.  It won't help that there are a fewer number of teams than most years with a realistic shot at doing something in the playoffs.   

Gotta stay healthy and hold off on the 2nd half fade he does every year as long as possible. 

[Sjoski]

15 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

That would require him wanting to stay here. Why would he? 

Exactly....both him and fiancee are from California....

He is probably thinking:

I am playing out my time here, and when I hit the open market, I’m looking elsewhere.

[Patzky]

26 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I still cling to the probably forlorn hope that Ryan can be re-signed by the Twins. In the more likely event that they can't get him to stay or simply won't pay the freight, trading him is the only other logical answer. The questions is - trade him at the 2026 trade deadline or in the off season?   Or, put more accurately IMO, when can you get not just high upside talent but high upside talent that is ready to go into the Majors right away? I don't think we should trade him for guys in A or even AA Ball unless the latter is someone who can skip AAA and come straight to the parent club. We shouldn't be trading Ryan for guys that can help us in 2029 and beyond; we should be trading for guys that can play something close to full-time in 2027 and be foundational pieces in 2028 and beyond. Ideally, we should trade him for one or more cost controlled players that have already shown they can hit MLB pitching to a least a certain extent that have been upside of being a middle of the order bat. That may be a more likely scenario in the off-season than at the deadline when teams tend to only want to trade away high upside players that are least a couple of years away. To me, that is an inadequate return. If that's all that's offered, I would wait until the off-season.

This is of course all complicated by the impending lockout and what happens to people's contracts if there is no 2027 season or shortened one, if they change the free agency rules, if there's a cap and floor system, etc. Frankly, I think that impacts everybody's trade value in Ryan's position since there's no guarantee that you're actually trading for a guy for a full 2027 season. I think that may make deadline trays a little less interesting for guys like Ryan.

If we don't think we can win now, we should trade Ryan for guys who can help us win now?  I get it.. but it's circular and the devil we know..

[Vanimal46]

13 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

Exactly....both him and fiancee are from California....

He is probably thinking:

I am playing out my time here, and when I hit the open market, I’m looking elsewhere.

Last year he made it known publicly that he’s ready to move on from this team. I can’t imagine anything has changed this year. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

37 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

That would require him wanting to stay here. Why would he? 

As much as I love the Minnesota Twins,  I must  also ask, why would Joe Ryan want to stay a Minnesota Twin?  The answer is obvious: "Show me the money." If that isn't done, fagitaboutit.

[LA Vikes Fan]

29 minutes ago, Patzky said:

If we don't think we can win now, we should trade Ryan for guys who can help us win now?  I get it.. but it's circular and the devil we know..

I guess I wasn't clear. I want to trade Ryan (if we do) for guys that are in the Majors in 2027, developing into guys who can help us win in 2028-2032. In other words, a high upside prospect that's ready to develop in the Majors - think the hitting equivalent of Abel with more experience, not Mendez or Tait. I think the goal is to get guys who help make the division/wild card competitive window crack open a bit next year or 2028 and help us be competitive to win the division/make noise in the playoffs by 2028/2029. That's trading for someone who is ready to get jump in their whole body wet now but needs some MLB struggles/seasoning before they can be meaningful contributors. It takes at least a year of roughly full time MLB play before someone becomes a meaningful contributor, usually two. I want that development year in the Bigs to be 2027, not 2029. I'm thinking someone analogous to Martin at the start of this year but with higher upside, plus a reliever of the same ilk, guys who can be regulars in 2027. Martin is undergoing his development year now in the hope he can be a meaningful consistent contributor in the front half of the lineup in 2027. Same for Keaschall. What I don't want to do is trade Ryan for the equivalent of couple Eduardo Taits; guys with high upsides who won't arrive in the Majors until 2029 or 2030. Those trades just push out the competitive window farther. 

If we want to trade for someone that can help us win now, we have to wait until the off season and hope to trade Ryan plus for an cost controlled established middle of the order bat. Those bats aren't available at the deadline. I also don't think we get that for Ryan. 

[SteveLV]

The Twins SHOULD offer him a nice extension.  It would be good faith to their best pitcher, and it would be good faith for their (dwindling) fan base.  However, I doubt he would sign one anyways.

But the Twins won't offer an extension anyways.

And if that is true, they should certainly trade him.

This their sad reality.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Rick Blaine said:

Extend Joe Ryan to show some good faith. 

I don’t want his expensive decline years.

[Maybebaby]

Geez, don't trade him for prospects, just too many maybes with prospects. Do something right for a change and extend him.  The guy is as close to an ace as we will ever have and pretty close to an iron horse.  Open your eyes Tommy P., you have a star on your hands why trade him for unknowns?  If you want to be swamped by more hate mail towards your family then, go ahead trade him for another Outman or two!  That ought to put butts in the seats, yeah right!

[Vanimal46]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I don’t want his expensive decline years.

The expensive decline years wouldn’t matter if we had an ownership group that gave a legitimate budget. Unfortunately the Pohlads are as clueless as the owner from Rookie of the Year buying hot dogs.

 

[DJL44]

I can see an argument to keep him one more season and go for it in a shortened 2027 with Pablo Lopez returning. This team isn’t good enough, but it’s not that far off. Trade Jeffers, Larnach and Ober but keep Ryan and spend a little money to see if you can take this incredibly weak division in 2027.

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, Nshore said:

The Twins will trade Ryan because they are in the subgroup of ML teams that are AAAA development teams for the rest of the league.

No. It's because sellers sell and buyers buy. 

My mighty mets are dog **** this year and will be selling a few assets as well. 

However the Twins don't NEED to sell because there's still the off-season, even if that off-season is marred by an ownership lockout. 

[Wedman13]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Wait a minute.  You want to trade Joe Ryan for one top 100 prospect and change?   Nope.  Trading a guy (or not) is ALWAYS dependent on return.  Go ahead and trade him, but the return needs to be much more substantial than that.  Otherwise, he can play another year for the home team.  

Well said.  If we have to deal him, deal him.  I'd hate it, but get it.  But If all the Twins extract is one top 100 prospect and 2 upside guys I'll throw up.  That is an absurdly low return.  Hard pass.

[weitz41]

Honestly, this forgone conclusion that the Twins should trade Joe is kind of silly. The AL is SO bad this year that 5 games under .500 and your still in it for a wild card. Now throw in the central being even worse than expected. At this point of the season with WHAT 50% of the BP waiver wire pick-ups and 3 of tonight's starting 9 from the same place. Just ride it out. A little buy and a little sell. Fill in with AAA guys and ride it out.

Save that big trade for the winter meetings.

[Wedman13]

51 minutes ago, Maybebaby said:

Geez, don't trade him for prospects, just too many maybes with prospects. Do something right for a change and extend him.  The guy is as close to an ace as we will ever have and pretty close to an iron horse.  Open your eyes Tommy P., you have a star on your hands why trade him for unknowns?  If you want to be swamped by more hate mail towards your family then, go ahead trade him for another Outman or two!  That ought to put butts in the seats, yeah right!

You do realize we traded Nelson Cruz for an unknown prospect named Joe Ryan, right?  Outman sucks, so does Brock Stewart.  Not seeing the relevance there....

[karcherd]

1 hour ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I guess I wasn't clear. I want to trade Ryan (if we do) for guys that are in the Majors in 2027, developing into guys who can help us win in 2028-2032. In other words, a high upside prospect that's ready to develop in the Majors - think the hitting equivalent of Abel with more experience, not Mendez or Tait. I think the goal is to get guys who help make the division/wild card competitive window crack open a bit next year or 2028 and help us be competitive to win the division/make noise in the playoffs by 2028/2029. That's trading for someone who is ready to get jump in their whole body wet now but needs some MLB struggles/seasoning before they can be meaningful contributors. It takes at least a year of roughly full time MLB play before someone becomes a meaningful contributor, usually two. I want that development year in the Bigs to be 2027, not 2029. I'm thinking someone analogous to Martin at the start of this year but with higher upside, plus a reliever of the same ilk, guys who can be regulars in 2027. Martin is undergoing his development year now in the hope he can be a meaningful consistent contributor in the front half of the lineup in 2027. Same for Keaschall. What I don't want to do is trade Ryan for the equivalent of couple Eduardo Taits; guys with high upsides who won't arrive in the Majors until 2029 or 2030. Those trades just push out the competitive window farther. 

If we want to trade for someone that can help us win now, we have to wait until the off season and hope to trade Ryan plus for an cost controlled established middle of the order bat. Those bats aren't available at the deadline. I also don't think we get that for Ryan. 

But do you want Zoll making this decision, does he have the experience to make the right trade.  This is not Tommy P.'s call except for approving dollars or not.  Where Tom P. is at fault is not having someone in charge that can make the right moves.

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, karcherd said:

But do you want Zoll making this decision, does he have the experience to make the right trade.  This is not Tommy P.'s call except for approving dollars or not.  Where Tom P. is at fault is not having someone in charge that can make the right moves.

It was pretty widely reported that Zoll ran the deadline last year. He brought in Taj, Abel, and Rojas who are all pitching well in the majors this year. He brought in Mendez who is about to kick the door in to the majors. I don't know if those guys will all continue their success, or what Tait, Jiminez, etc. will become. But to this point it's hard to say Zoll didn't do a very good job last deadline.

And, yes, trading Joe Ryan is 100% Tom P's call. He's not going to be picking the return or deciding if it's good enough, but he will absolutely make the determination if they trade him. If Tom doesn't want to trade him before the new CBA, it doesn't matter if it's Zoll or whoever your favorite all-time GM/POBO is running the show, Joe Ryan isn't going anywhere. 

[Vanimal46]

36 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

Honestly, this forgone conclusion that the Twins should trade Joe is kind of silly. The AL is SO bad this year that 5 games under .500 and your still in it for a wild card. Now throw in the central being even worse than expected. At this point of the season with WHAT 50% of the BP waiver wire pick-ups and 3 of tonight's starting 9 from the same place. Just ride it out. A little buy and a little sell. Fill in with AAA guys and ride it out.

Save that big trade for the winter meetings.

Premium prices are paid at the deadline, not in the dead of winter. 

[karcherd]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

It was pretty widely reported that Zoll ran the deadline last year. He brought in Taj, Abel, and Rojas who are all pitching well in the majors this year. He brought in Mendez who is about to kick the door in to the majors. I don't know if those guys will all continue their success, or what Tait, Jiminez, etc. will become. But to this point it's hard to say Zoll didn't do a very good job last deadline.

And, yes, trading Joe Ryan is 100% Tom P's call. He's not going to be picking the return or deciding if it's good enough, but he will absolutely make the determination if they trade him. If Tom doesn't want to trade him before the new CBA, it doesn't matter if it's Zoll or whoever your favorite all-time GM/POBO is running the show, Joe Ryan isn't going anywhere. 

And Zoll also helped get Roden and Outman, not positions of need.  Your top baseball man has to present a plan to Tommy and convince him why it is the best path forward.  He then either accepts or rejects the plan.  

[chpettit19]

The Twins don't NEED to trade Joe in the sense that they would still have the offseason and next deadline to make a move. But the Twins SHOULD trade Joe this deadline. Joe's patented 2nd half fade, and Pablo Lopez are the exact reasons why they should. Pablo was the other big chip they had to play and now he's completely useless in trade. Joe blowing out his elbow on August 1 would mean they no longer have the offseason or next deadline to move him because nobody will want him.

It was said all offseason that the Twins didn't have to move Lopez or Ryan because of the control they have left. Some of us pointed out that there was risk in holding onto them. Pablo showed that risk immediately when spring training started. There is risk in not trading Joe just like there's risk in the prospects you get back. Joe isn't young. He may not have 10 years of experience, but he didn't debut until he was 25 and get real time in the majors until he was 26. He's about to turn 30 in 3 days. Would I love current Joe around for another 5+ years? For sure. But odds are that he starts to fade in the next couple. The Twins got his prime years and moving him for prospects is absolutely the right baseball move. Paying for his decline years is not a smart baseball move.

The Twins should trade Joe Ryan before the deadline. Do I have faith they actually will? No. But we'll see.