Minnesota Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

According to FanGraphs, the Rays are projected to have the third-best bullpen in baseball, with Griffin Jax as their best reliever. The Phillies are projected to have the fourth-best bullpen, with Jhoan Durán as their best reliever. The Blue Jays are projected to have the 12th-best bullpen, with Louie Varland as their second-best reliever.

The Twins, meanwhile, will be looking to replace all that lost impact with a bullpen that's generously projected to finish 20th in fWAR, a 19-spot drop from last year. Holdover Cole Sands will be surrounded by a group of aging, over-the-hill vets and fringe or young arms looking to turn a corner. In all likelihood, it won't be pretty, especially in the early going.

TWINS RELIEF PITCHERS AT A GLANCE

Projected Bullpen: Cole Sands, Taylor Rogers, Justin Topa, Liam Hendriks, Andrew Chafin, Eric Orze, Anthony Banda, Zak Kent
Depth: Kody Funderburk, David Festa, John Klein, Travis Adams, Dan Altavilla, Grant Hartwig, Matt Bowman
Prospects: Connor Prielipp, Marco Raya, Kendry Rojas, Ryan Gallagher, James Ellwanger

Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 7th out of 30
Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 20th out of 30

THE GOOD
There are some real track records of success here. Twins fans know how good Taylor Rogers was during his glory days in Minnesota, and how good Liam Hendriks was after he left. Andrew Chafin has a 3.35 ERA over a 12-year MLB career. Anthony Banda, Justin Topa and Eric Orze have all posted sub-four ERAs in the majors over the past couple seasons.

A casual follower of baseball might look at this list of names and conclude that it's actually a pretty good bullpen — certainly a very accomplished one. The Twins are hoping the depth of experience and "been there, done that" factor will pay dividends, especially under the leadership of a new bullpen coach who embodies those qualities in LaTroy Hawkins.

Much of this unit's outlook hinges on Hendriks. He's a complete wild-card, with fewer than 20 innings pitched over the past three seasons while dealing with myriad health issues. From 2019 through 2022 he was one of the very best and most dominant relief pitchers in baseball. It seems unlikely he'll recapture that form now at age 37, but the Twins would take anything in the realm. 

It would be a stretch to say Hendriks has been blowing people away or generating massive enthusiasm in spring training, but with his fastball reaching the mid-90s, he's shown enough to instill belief that he's not cooked.

 

Sands, when at his best in 2024, looked a little bit like Hendriks of yore, pairing an overpowering arsenal with excellent control to log a 3.28 ERA and 2.63 FIP in 71 ⅓ innings. If both of those two can stay healthy and perform at a reasonably high level, it will make a huge difference for a bullpen whose most apparent shortcoming is a lack of impact righties in the late innings following the departures of Durán, Jax and Varland.

One area where the Twins do seem relatively well equipped is the left-handed side. Minnesota's Opening Day bullpen is likely to feature three southpaws and maybe even four. Rogers, Chafin and Banda check a lot of boxes in terms of results and experience, including in high-leverage situations. 

Banda ranked second on the Dodgers in Win Probability Added last year, with a 96 MPH fastball and wipeout slider that held opponents to a .223 wOBA. Rogers and Chafin have seen their velocity and stuff degrade over time, but you wouldn't really know it from their numbers. These are crafty vets who can get people out, especially left-handed hitters. 

 

THE BAD
There's a reason Rogers, Hendriks and Chafin were available late in the offseason on minor-league contracts or very cheap MLB deals. There's also a reason Orze was acquired in a low-wattage trade, and Banda and Zak Kent were essentially waiver claims. These are not in-demand pitchers. They are not viewed around the league as likely to make substantial positive impacts. Those are just the undeniable facts. Everyone's aware of what these guys have done in the past.

When you look beyond ERAs, you start to see why, because the outlook gets a lot less favorable. Rogers had a 3.38 ERA last year but a less impressive 4.38 FIP, thanks to issuing 23 walks in 50 innings and posting the highest HR rate of his career at 34. Chafin, Banda and Orze also have had their own share of control issues that threaten to derail solid top-line performance.

This year's Twins bullpen mix features only one reliever projected by FanGraphs to post a WAR above 0.4 (Sands). Last year saw seven relievers post a WAR higher than 0.4 for the Twins bullpen, including five who spent only two-thirds of the season as part of it. 

You might look at this and think, "Wow, despite all that, the Twins bullpen is projected to be only the 11th-worst in baseball?!" And yeah, it does say a lot about how many teams are struggling to find confident stability on the relief pitching front. Which underscores what a risk that Minnesota's front office took last year in trading away three who've proven themselves to the degree of Durán, Jax and Varland. 

The Twins are hoping that they can eventually develop similar bullpen stalwarts out of an emerging slate of arms that includes Kody Funderburk, David Festa, Connor Prieilipp, Marco Raya, John Klein, Kendry Rojas, Ryan Gallagher and James Ellwanger. It's definitely not hard to envision some legit late-inning arms coming out of that group, in time. But figuring it all out is a nonlinear, trial-and-error process that requires exercising patience and enduring pain. 

The odds of this bullpen being even average in the first half of the 2026 are extremely slim, which will have major implications on the team's ability to remain competitive and avoid another deadline sell-off.

THE BOTTOM LINE
This is clearly not a good bullpen. From my view, it's likely to be quite terrible, whereas sources like FanGraphs project it merely as below average. Either way, a clear strength was flipped into a clear weakness through Minnesota's actions at the deadline last year. 

These actions were designed to benefit the long-term outlook, and evaluating them through that lens will take time. But there's little doubt that the short-term outlook for the bullpen is severely worsened. The Twins felt the effect in August and September of last year, and they'll continue to feel them this year unless several overlooked vets can score rare victories against Father Time.

Catch up on the rest of our roster preview series:

• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Catcher
• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: First Base
• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Second Base
• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Third Base
• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Shortstop
• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Left Field
• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Center Field
• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Right Field
• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Designated Hitter
• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

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[JD-TWINS]

“..much of the unit’s success hinges on Hendricks” ……… come on man! He’s maybe got a 50/50 chance of sticking on the roster. Never been higher than that since the first phone call/email. 2-3 months of “decent” Hendricks would be a win for the Club. Can’t imagine any expectations higher than that.

They are going to need (young) guys that haven’t thrown to 2-6 batters at a time to figure it out & be effective. The list of fringe veterans will be OK for short stints but more than 1/2 of the original 8 getting through September is a real stretch.

[Nshore]

From an article in the paper it's clear that Hendriks has a great sense of humor.  He's going to need it.

[Muppet]

Well at least they won’t blow leads they don’t have. 

[DJL44]

They should be set for low leverage situations, but I don't know if there's anyone I really trust with a 2-run lead in late innings. 8 interchangeable mediocre pitchers.

[terrydactyls]

Rogers and Chafin are both "crafty veterans"?  Are only left-handers allowed in the "crafty" fraternity?

[IndianaTwin]

What I do like about this year's throw-it-against-the-wall-and-see-what-sticks approach is that the things being thrown have considerably more talent than prior years' throwage. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

44 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Rogers and Chafin are both "crafty veterans"?  Are only left-handers allowed in the "crafty" fraternity?

Pretty much. Another one is the (now defunct) LOOGY. You never heard them use ROOGY did you?

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

“..much of the unit’s success hinges on Hendricks” ……… come on man! He’s maybe got a 50/50 chance of sticking on the roster. Never been higher than that since the first phone call/email. 2-3 months of “decent” Hendricks would be a win for the Club. Can’t imagine any expectations higher than that.

He'll make the team and he'll be pitching in the ninth inning. I can almost guarantee that at this point. 

[Parfigliano]

55 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Rogers and Chafin are both "crafty veterans"?  Are only left-handers allowed in the "crafty" fraternity?

It's in the bylaws.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

Rogers and Chafin are both "crafty veterans"?  Are only left-handers allowed in the "crafty" fraternity?

Bailey Ober is "crafty".

[The Great Hambino]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

Rogers and Chafin are both "crafty veterans"?  Are only left-handers allowed in the "crafty" fraternity?

Also: must one be a veteran in order to be crafty?  Are there any crafty rookies?

For all the offseason reliever additions, there still isn't a single reliever on the roster that I'd count on belonging in the top three of a good bullpen at this point in their careers.

Some of the (I guess non-crafty) youngsters might get there eventually, but in the meantime, this is gonna be rough.

[LambchoP]

They should be trying to trade Jackson and Larnach for some RH relief help. We need someone who can handle the late innings and protect the rare leads we might have:)

[Peter Gravett]

I have to think Altavilla is going make the cut. No mention of Laweryson?

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Muppet said:

Well at least they won’t blow leads they don’t have. 

Ouch!

[DuluthDuke]

I'm interested to see what Cody Lawerson can do. Pitched well at the end of 2025 in MLB and has pitched well in Spring Training this year. Seems like he could produce at least as well Hartwig or Bowman and can be optioned. With a bullpen full of +30 guys Twins surely going to have a lot of fill in opportunities this year..

[USAFChief]

What's the big deal?  I read here all the time how bullpens are the easiest thing to build. Nothing to it. 

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I have to think Dan Altavilla will break camp with the team. He had a 2.48 ERA last year in 29 innings with the White Sox (admittedly with a 5.45 FIP), and seemed to pitch well for Italy in the World Baseball Classic this spring. He's on a minor league deal so he will have opt outs under the CBA and one is 5 days before opening day, i.e., tomorrow. If Altavilla and Kent make it, Orze probably goes down. My guess is Orze and Altavilla stay and Kent goes. My real guess is that someone winds up on the 15 day IL to start the season.

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Pretty much. Another one is the (now defunct) LOOGY. You never heard them use ROOGY did you?

Yeah, the LTOGY doesn't roll off the tongue in quite the same way. 

[stringer bell]

1 minute ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I have to think Dan Altavilla will break camp with the team. He had a 2.48 ERA last year in 29 innings with the White Sox (admittedly with a 5.45 FIP), and seemed to pitch well for Italy in the World Baseball Classic this spring. He's on a minor league deal so he will have opt outs under the CBA and one is 5 days before opening day, i.e., tomorrow. If Altavilla and Kent make it, Orze probably goes down. My guess is Orze and Altavilla stay and Kent goes. My real guess is that someone winds up on the 15 day IL to start the season.

I don't think Altavilla has an opt-out. I am certain that he isn't guaranteed an opt-out due to his veteran status. He has 5.087 years of service according to Fangraphs, so he's doesn't have the same opt-out guarantees as Hendriks, Chafin and Arcia.

He probably has a higher floor and ceiling than any of the other right handers as long as he is healthy, so I don't think the Twins should risk losing him. 

[Vanimal46]

48 minutes ago, Peter Gravett said:

I have to think Altavilla is going make the cut. No mention of Laweryson?

I would prefer those 2 over Kent and Orze. Probably over Topa too at this stage in the season. 

[stringer bell]

25 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

What's the big deal?  I read here all the time how bullpens are the easiest thing to build. Nothing to it. 

 

Last year the Twins filled out their bullpen on a shoestring and it showed. This year they're trying to build a bullpen on a shoestring and it is very likely it will show again. The guys at the front of the line are gambles and projections and there really isn't much behind them unless starters are converted to the bullpen.

[Peter Gravett]

1 minute ago, Vanimal46 said:

I would prefer those 2 over Kent and Orze. Probably over Topa too at this stage in the season. 

Agreed, and absolutely Topa should not be an automatic. Terrible spring and long-standing habit of letting inherited runners score.

[LA Vikes Fan]

32 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I don't think Altavilla has an opt-out. I am certain that he isn't guaranteed an opt-out due to his veteran status. He has 5.087 years of service according to Fangraphs, so he's doesn't have the same opt-out guarantees as Hendriks, Chafin and Arcia.

He probably has a higher floor and ceiling than any of the other right handers as long as he is healthy, so I don't think the Twins should risk losing him. 

Thanks for the update. I want to keep him, too. I think you're right -  it's Hendricks, Chafin, and Arcia that have the opt outs. I just read the date is today, not tomorrow. When do we expect the team to announce its roster decisions?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Bailey Ober is "crafty".

Is that like saying a basketball player is “scrappy”?  Or that a girl has a good personality?

[Muppet]

This bullpen reminds me of a few years back when Emilio Pagan seemed to sour the entire 2023-4 bullpen. Seemed that everytime he pitched he blew a lead or walked 3 batters in a row. This year the bullpen is made up of all Pagans. Even if he has a good outing once in ahwile, his replacement is another Pagan. 

Let's hope the offence is somehow really really good this year. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

3 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Rogers and Chafin are both "crafty veterans"?  Are only left-handers allowed in the "crafty" fraternity?

Lefthanded and breathing, the old adage goes. 

[Greglw3]

I think Altavilla should be swapped for Topa. I heard, probably on the radio that Latroy Hawkins is very high on him and made a major pitch to have Altavilla signed and said that he would really help the Twins.

I’ve liked Chafin for a while now and he did have a 2.49 ERA last year band has been effective in camp. There really is something to that crafty lefty moniker. I remember when Frank Tanana was a flamethrower along with Nolan Ryan, then hurt his arm and changed to the craft lefty M.O. and was effective for years. I also think Tommy John himself pulled off the same conversion.

Maybe the wild card is Latroy Hawkins. From listening to him on the broadcasts, it seems he brings a wealth of knowledge and passion and caring to the job. And, damn, is he funny!!!

[rdehring]

Thanks for another good read, Nick.  And thanks for all the information leading up to next Thursday.

As for the bullpen, I believe it will not be as bad as we fear.  On the other hand, I doubt it will be as good as we hoped.  After everything he has gone thru would be great seeing Liam pitching near what he was before the health issues.

Final question.  Haven't the Twins indicated both Prielipp and Rojas are starters?  Why are they included here?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

This bullpen is scary, and that’s in the stalled on the tracks and seeing the train coming kind of way.  It is possible that some of these guys will be pretty successful, but there just aren’t enough of them that will be good to really put together a coherent bullpen strategy.  I feel reasonable about Sands and a potentially healthy Hendricks, but beyond those guys we’re betting on expired milk or guys that never were good.  If Hendricks and Sands were the numbers 3 and 4 guys in the bullpen, I think we would be fine, but Ii’m not sure who in this group will potentially be better than them.  OK.  Rant over.  Let’s play ball!