Pablo López Injury Swings the Door Wide Open for Mick Abel

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

The 2025 trade deadline saw a lot of outstanding talent shipped out by the Twins, with Jhoan Duran topping the list. It was a bold strategy for the front office, and the wisdom of their audacious gambit will ultimately be dictated by the impact of those players who came back in the veteran purge. Mick Abel, acquired alongside teenage catcher Eduardo Tait in exchange or Duran, stands out as one whose development will greatly influence how the controversial '25 deadline sell-off is remembered.

Long viewed as a top prospect before debuting in the majors last year, Abel had an up-and-down rookie season that featured plenty of struggle, but also real indicators of future potential as a rotation building block. That included his final start of the year, against the Phillies, in which Abel was lights-out: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 K. It was a performance that lived up to the hype of an overpowering arsenal, for which the 24-year-old has garnered much acclaim.

While it's far from clear that Abel and his shaky command are going to succeed in the big leagues, especially right away, it is evident that he's ready for the challenge. There's little left to accomplish in Triple-A, where he's thrown over 200 innings. As such, it felt odd that — heading into spring camp — Abel appeared very much in line to start the season in St. Paul. 

With López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober locked into the top three rotation spots, Abel was competing for one of the final two openings against several pitchers with more MLB experience and more proven track records: Simeon Woods Richardson, Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews, David Festa. Even accounting for a bullpen conversion or two, Abel was going to need to leapfrog multiple guys ahead of him on the depth chart.

But now, López is out for the year, causing a major shakeup in depth atop the rotation picture. Ryan and Ober each slide up a spot, and the back end becomes more of an open field. According to observations from early in camp, Abel is ready to make his case.

In his "Live from Fort Myers" blog highlighting on-the-scene observations earlier this week, Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune wrote that Abel "looked like he was in midseason form" during his first live bullpen section on Day 2. "His fastball was sitting from 96-98 mph," Nightengale reports, "and he was mixing all his pitches."  

Derek Shelton, per Nightengale, was impressed with what he saw. “Abel is one of those guys that, I mean, you guys saw it last year, what he did to the Phillies late in the year,” the new Twins manager said. “He's got electric stuff. I mean, he throws the first pitch out of his hand, it's a 98-mph sinker to [Byron Buxton]. I mean, that'll make you smile.”

Twins fans could use something to smile about in the wake of the devastating López news. Hopefully a clear path for Abel to step in and take hold of a rotation spot will be that. In a year that figures to be primarily focused on development and building toward the future, he's exactly the kind of player fans should want to tune in and watch.

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[dxpavelka]

He's got the tools.  Just hope we don't spend the next decade wishing we had held out for Andrew Painter.

[Whitey333]

So sad to see Pablo go down for the season.  Now we will get to see if their starting depth is as great as they have been telling us.  I have my doubts

[TJSweens]

I think it's safe to say the door is wide open for which ever pitching prospects step up during spring training. Ryan, Ober and Richardson are obvious locks. Then there are 4 pitchers competing for 2 spots. 

[bean5302]

Abel's problem is probably mechanics. Take his rough start vs. the Cubs early last year. His 4-seamer ranged from 93.7 to 98.3mph. That kind of variance is bad. The Twins pitching coaches worked with players recently to try and eliminate the outlier velo pitches and they were eventually able to get SWR to work on his mechanics. Hopefully, they'll be able to address the mechanical issues for Abel as well.

You really have to love what you see in his "stuff" if he can just get his mechanics under control, his location will also follow suit. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I wonder if the Lopez injury will put moving Festa to the pen on hold?

[jmlease1]

It would be great if he can do it. The stuff is real, the command has been shaky. If he finds some consistency then he could be a guy. I'll be interested to see how the competition for the last 2 spots goes (you would think that SWR has the 3rd spot locked down unless he's an absolute mess in spring training).

I hate losing Pablo, and losing him early like this. But we do have a bunch of starting pitchers with real potential, so let's see what we got. I'm a little baffled by the people who seem to have given up on every Twins pitching prospect already; it's almost like people are rooting not just for the team to be bad as another middle finger to Falvey (who is gone) and the Pohlads (who we are stuck with regardless), actually rooting against the players for some reason.

[CRF]

The door is wide open for a few of these guys. Whether or not any of them is successful at going thru it, remains to be seen. 

[bunsen82]

10 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

He's got the tools.  Just hope we don't spend the next decade wishing we had held out for Andrew Painter.

We weren't getting Painter.  As to Abel,  if he has feel for the 4 seamer and starts to develop the sweeper.  There is definitely something to unlock there.   It does appear confidence appears to be something he needs to work on.  

[Fatbat]

There is a world where Abel finds his rhythm and absolutely becomes a top of the rotation ace. He is a huge question mark right now but don’t bet against him. 

[Steve J]

They apparently found a way to make Ober's fastball effective... They turned it into Abel's changeup.  

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I wonder if the Lopez injury will put moving Festa to the pen on hold?

Jeremy Zoll has not mentioned Festa as a reliever conversion option to the best of my knowledge. He made a statement cautioning against the expectation an opening day transistion at the MLB level.

https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/onsi/minnesota-twins-news/twins-gm-says-outfield-prospect-to-get-time-at-first-starter-moving-to-bullpen

While I do think Festa is on the short end of the list of potential conversion candidates, Zoll has been clearly less willing to plug roster holes and waste value than Falvey.

[DJL44]

50 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I wonder if the Lopez injury will put moving Festa to the pen on hold?

I hope not. Festa has never been able to handle the innings needed for a starter. 

2022 103.2 IP

2023 92.1 IP

2024 124.2 IP

2025 84.2 IP

There there's his 1st and 2nd time through the order stats

1st time 206 PA .166/.218/.280 56K 11BB

2nd time 203 PA .301/.386/.523 50K 22BB

Do you want 60 great innings out of Festa or 100 mediocre innings?

[rdehring]

Two spots in the rotation, four young arms looking to fill them.  Will one of the two who don't make it move to the pen?  Or will both be in St. Paul as the next man/men up?  Remains to be seen which two will take those spots.  Going to be an exciting spring training.

My only hope is that one of this foursome takes that last big step to approach Ace status.  Happens in Cleveland all the time, why not for the Twins?

 

 

 

[Fatbat]

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I hope not. Festa has never been able to handle the innings needed for a starter. 

2022 103.2 IP

2023 92.1 IP

2024 124.2 IP

2025 84.2 IP

There there's his 1st and 2nd time through the order stats

1st time 206 PA .166/.218/.280 56K 11BB

2nd time 203 PA .301/.386/.523 50K 22BB

Do you want 60 great innings out of Festa or 100 mediocre innings?

Festa should be made into a demon of a closer. He may get one last chance in ‘26 as a starter but he has a long way to go to stay in the rotation!

[Fatbat]

What hasn’t been considered in this post is that Rojas, Preillip and Raya are right behind this group and you could throw a couple other guys as well. There can/will be plenty of next man up opportunities/candidates.

[Road trip]

20 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I hope not. Festa has never been able to handle the innings needed for a starter. 

2022 103.2 IP

2023 92.1 IP

2024 124.2 IP

2025 84.2 IP

 

A totally valid concern.  Unfortunately, the numbers for Abel aren't all that much better, although he ramped up a little last year.

108, 113, 108, and 137 innings pitched.

Similar numbers for other young starters like Zebby.

For better or worse (I have no idea) this seems to be how young starters are being developed pretty much everywhere.  It isn't just a Twins thing.

Ideally, by current (low) standards you'd like to have starters that can get to the 150-160 inning pitched range, but it seems very few pitchers throw that many as they advance through the minors.  Thus, you don't really find out much about endurance for young pitchers until they get to the majors.  I certainly hope this low bar can be cleared by some of the Twins young starters, be it Abel or someone else.

[Chembry]

12 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

What hasn’t been considered in this post is that Rojas, Preillip and Raya are right behind this group and you could throw a couple other guys as well. There can/will be plenty of next man up opportunities/candidates.

Raya is converting to a full time bullpen role.  I have heard this many times now from spring training reports. 

It's also been stated that Prielipp is preparing and stretching out as a starter.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I'm with you, FatBat. I say the Slim Reaper is the closer by mid-season. Has the right arsenal and makes sense with his injury issues. Great nickname for a closer. Add in some walk up music like "The Grim Reaper" by King Gizzard and the Lizard Wizard, or "The Reaper" by Blue Oyster Cult, or even really heavy metal like "Rock You to Hell" by Grim Reaper or  Gursach's "I'm the Grim Reaper" and you have a 9th inning show.   

[Fatbat]

10 minutes ago, Chembry said:

Raya is converting to a full time bullpen role.  I have heard this many times now from spring training reports. 

It's also been stated that Prielipp is preparing and stretching out as a starter.

Festa and Raya as the next closing tandem makes 💯 greatness in ‘26 and beyond.  

[OregonTwinsFan]

My money is on Abel starting the year in AAA due to seniority.

[Brandon]

I still support signing another starter.  You can never have too much pitching.

[Cris E]

Abel may have the most stuff, but he's got to move that xFIP to ERA at some point. That's one of those hard things that young pitchers struggle with. Same with second and third time through, and figuring out how to stretch your arsenal to give some sort of new look every time you face a batter. 

Ryan, Ober, SWR, and Bradley will probably come out of the gate in April, but over the next six months there's going to be a lot of jostling between Bradley, Mathews and Abel (and maybe some others too) over those last couple rotation spots. Injuries will open and close doors, guys will play themselves in and out of the lineup, and maybe the pen becomes a parking spot for one of them. It's so early.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Festa and Raya as the next closing tandem makes 💯 greatness in ‘26 and beyond.  

Raya couldn't get people out in AAA. Penciling him in as a middle reliever is questionable at this point.

Last 9 games as a reliever in AAA.
4.91 ERA, 6.11 FIP, 8.35 K/9, 4.42 BB/9 and that's with a luck fueled .208 BABIP

[bean5302]

Festa didn't have any good pitches. Moving him to the bullpen probably doesn't make his 45 grade pitches into 70 grade offerings to turn him into a great closer.

If you're thinking Festa could follow the Jax model, Jax at least had a borderline plus slider as a starter. It got better when he moved to the 'pen.

[David Maro]

Way to much emphasis on 98-100 mph fastballs when 95 will do. It's called pitching and too many are throwers. If they put the pitch where the catcher calls for that's pitching. And with the ABS coming this year things may be different. You probably will not see the pitchers staring down the umpires like in the past. Watching SWR he would lose his ability to throw strikes if the umpire didn't give him a pitch or two. Both Abel and Bradley have to work more on location than mph to be effective.

[killertwinfan]

The house is on fire. The roof of the barn is smoldering and you realize you just refilled all your fuel cans that you store in it. 

[HerbieFan]

Sink or swim, he's another guy I'm anxious to see get an extended run this season.  This club is not winning anything this year.  Time to see if there's a future with a bunch of these guys....Abel, Bradley, Festa, Matthews, Lews, Lee, Keaschall, Wallner, etc....

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Festa didn't have any good pitches. Moving him to the bullpen probably doesn't make his 45 grade pitches into 70 grade offerings to turn him into a great closer.

If you're thinking Festa could follow the Jax model, Jax at least had a borderline plus slider as a starter. It got better when he moved to the 'pen.

Does anyone currently in the Twins bullpen have any plus pitches? That would be the start of a good article.

[mickster]

1 hour ago, Cris E said:

Abel may have the most stuff, but he's got to move that xFIP to ERA at some point. That's one of those hard things that young pitchers struggle with. Same with second and third time through, and figuring out how to stretch your arsenal to give some sort of new look every time you face a batter. 

Ryan, Ober, SWR, and Bradley will probably come out of the gate in April, but over the next six months there's going to be a lot of jostling between Bradley, Mathews and Abel (and maybe some others too) over those last couple rotation spots. Injuries will open and close doors, guys will play themselves in and out of the lineup, and maybe the pen becomes a parking spot for one of them. It's so early.

Ryan, Ober, SWR, Bradly and a FA signing will be the opening 5 unless someone WOWS in ST.   Expect Abel and Matthews to be in St. Paul rotation to start with.