Don't Believe Everything Ryan Jeffers Tells You

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

When the Twins signed catcher Victor Caratini to a two-year deal earlier this month, many wondered what would become of Ryan Jeffers, their incumbent backstop. Jeffers, 28, will be a free agent at the end of this season, and after the fire sale at last year's trade deadline, the possibility of a trade sending him elsewhere felt very real.

Alternatively, of course, the team could keep both players, and deploy them in the same exceptionally even timeshare that Jeffers and Christian Vázquez effected over the last three seasons. The major downside to that plan wouldn't even be about performance, but about morale. Jeffers has been forthright about his desire to take on a truer starting role, catching 100 or more games a year, and in the last season before he reaches free agency, that desire has surely never been more urgent.

Jeffers made an appearance on Inside Twins, the team's web show, last week, and sounded like a man confident he'll get the opportunity he's been waiting for, without changing teams.

New manager Derek Shelton sang the same tune at Friday's Twins media luncheon.

"Jeffers is going to be the [starter]," Shelton said. "We've talked to Victor about it. The thing we thought about there is we get a guy we think of as a frontline, as someone who is going to play behind Ryan, but he can also play first; he can also DH. Going into this offseason, I don't think anyone predicted that we would be the [team to sign him]. The fact we were able to add him to our group was extremely exciting."

Shelton confirmed that he called and spoke to Jeffers directly, so the assurances Jeffers said he'd gotten appear to have come right from the man who will make out the lineup card. General manager Jeremy Zoll also alluded to Caratini's ability to play first base when discussing the team's interest in him, so ostensibly, the 81/81 split appears to be dead. Caratini can be penciled in for perhaps 60 starts behind the plate, if everyone stays healthy, and will find more at-bats at first base and DH. Jeffers can aim to qualify for the batting title for the first time, after taking 465 and 464 plate appearances in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Everyone can stop asking pointed questions, now.

On the other hand: baseball teams lie. They lie to their players, all the time, although not usually as directly as by calling them up to tell them something false. More importantly, they lie to each other and to fans, usually indirectly, using misdirection and/or obfuscation. There are lots of little advantages to be found by being cagey, and no baseball executive (at least none of this generation; Dave Dombrowski is a good reminder that it used to be different) is so eager to be honest as to let any possible edge be dulled. 

In other words: the Twins still might end up playing Caratini half the time at catcher. It's even more likely, though, that they're going to trade Jeffers, even though they say they aren't. They talked to Caratini about being ok with a backup catching role and filling in elsewhere to round out his playing time, but they also bid $14 million on a two-year deal for (arguably) the second-best catcher who was on the market this winter, despite knowing they have a limited budget. That investment bespeaks a greater commitment than their words do. Caratini is also the second catcher they've proactively acquired this winter, and one way or another, his arrival means the exit of another backstop. The Twins (even more than most teams) can ill afford to carry three catchers, so one of Jeffers and Alex Jackson is a goner.

It could certainly be Jackson, who cost very little to acquire and would be easy to dump for a similar return to some team who doesn't find a suitable backup catcher by the end of spring training. Jeffers's looming free agency is hard to ignore, though. The fact that Caratini will be paid more than Jeffers this season is notable, too. Jeffers would net the team a solid return, from any of several teams still looking to figure out that position in a season in which they expect to contend.

I doubt that Jeffers, Shelton or even Zoll are consciously lying to reporters about what all involved expect to happen at catcher this year. However, that doesn't mean they're telling the whole truth—and more importantly, the truth is always changing. Jeffers is slated to be the 108-game guy behind the plate for the team in 2026. Within a week, he could well be preparing for the same role with a different team. Three months from now, he could well be muddling through a fourth straight season in a half-time role. Don't assume anything any of the key players in this miniature drama have said is a solid fact. Everyone involved is working with imperfect or fluid information, and that makes them untrustworthy, even if they have no reason to mislead you.

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[Cris E]

Plus it sure simplifies things for writers.  They can ignore what the teams say, write whatever they want, and use scary words like LIE. 

Occam's Razor says that management probably knows they've been incredibly lucky the past four years in how much catching they've gotten from Jeffers and Vasquez, and that the catchers behind Jeffers were unplayable last year. So maybe they want to have 160 games worth of decent talent on the 24 man roster just in case someone takes a foul tip off the thumb and we're not treated to another month of Gasper and Paredes levels of awful. Jackson may or may not play into this as it's unclear he can hit at all. His best performance in the majors was an 85 OPS+ six years ago (in 7 plate appearances.) (Oh sorry, that overlooks his 111 OPS+ last year.  Consider me skeptical, especially since that was only 100 AB and he had a 26 OPS+ in 155AB the year before. 26.)

[Dman]

After the Pereda news I was wondering the same thing.  Either they are trying to get something back in return for Jackson or pry something loose for Jeffers.  They can't keep all three. We'll see what happens.

[ashbury]

The headline had me expecting that another TD writer was dipping a toe into RandBall's Stu waters.

Otherwise, yes. Nothing to see here.  Jeffers is on the team.  Until he isn't.

[nicksaviking]

I mean this is baseball, it should go without saying that veteran players could/should/will be moved mid season if the team is looking rough. I'm not going to consider it a lie if that happens.

If he were to get traded this spring? Yeah, that would be deceptive, but I don't think that's at all going to happen.

[LambchoP]

Jackson doesn't fit on the roster without a minor league option. They'll probably try to trade him for cash in spring training. Twins need a viable backup mlb catcher that they can stash in St Paul as injury replacement, or depth for when we inevitably trade Jeffers at the deadline.

[bean5302]

The Twins signing Caratini on a multi-year deal for more AAV than Ryan Jeffers is making, then declaring Jeffers to be the primary and Caratini to be a backup catcher and 1B/DH when we have about a dozen of those on the active roster already is nonsensical.

I don't understand why the Twins acquired Jackson if they don't believe he's a viable backup option. I'm skeptical Jackson is a viable backup, but I'm not the one wasting millions of dollars on him.

[old nurse]

37 minutes ago, ashbury said:

The headline had me expecting that another TD writer was dipping a toe into RandBall's Stu waters.

Otherwise, yes. Nothing to see here.  Jeffers is on the team.  Until he isn't.

The few times I have read the writers just for fun it does not seem all that much different than their usual writing 

[ashbury]

14 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins signing Caratini on a multi-year deal for more AAV than Ryan Jeffers is making, then declaring Jeffers to be the primary and Caratini to be a backup catcher and 1B/DH when we have about a dozen of those on the active roster already is nonsensical.

Welcome to the world of MLB economics, where player salaries are held artificially low for 6 seasons, give or take.  Even with arbitration rights, Jeffers is drawing a salary lower than he could command from the highest bidder.  So the salaries of the two players are apples-and-oranges. 

It's not nonsensical; it's regrettable that the team needed to do this.

$7M isn't a princely sum for a major leaguer, but if the Twins are paying it for a backup player then it qualifies as the Failure Tax for not having developed another catcher the normal way who would draw a minimum salary.  Jeffers is a win for the organization's drafting and development, but he's the only win in the catching department.  That's the issue, not Caratini himself, or who backs up whom for the price.

[Dman]

11 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins signing Caratini on a multi-year deal for more AAV than Ryan Jeffers is making, then declaring Jeffers to be the primary and Caratini to be a backup catcher and 1B/DH when we have about a dozen of those on the active roster already is nonsensical.

I don't understand why the Twins acquired Jackson if they don't believe he's a viable backup option. I'm skeptical Jackson is a viable backup, but I'm not the one wasting millions of dollars on him.

The only thing I can think of is that the Twins didn't hold out much hope they would win the battle for Caratini and everything else after him isn't that great. Thus the Jackson move.  Now they have to figure out what to do next or carry three catchers which makes no sense.

[Cris E]

Jackson is insurance, not a major league player. He belongs in St Paul. It's a problem that he'll need to pass thru waivers, but that's the downside to how/when he was acquired. A slight misstep but if he doesn't make it guys like him and Paredes come across the wire all the time.

[arby58]

51 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I don't understand why the Twins acquired Jackson if they don't believe he's a viable backup option. I'm skeptical Jackson is a viable backup, but I'm not the one wasting millions of dollars on him.

First, they acquired him for a 26 year old 5'5" utility infielder who had a .701 OPS in AAA last year - not exactly a star in the making. Second, they acquired him before they signed Caratini, and it is likely they did not consider signing him a 'sure thing' so needed a backup catcher. Third, he's making the minimum, which is not 'millions of dollars.' Finally, if they lose him via waivers, the final outcome is casting off Eeles, who had no real future with the Twins anyway.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins signing Caratini on a multi-year deal for more AAV than Ryan Jeffers is making, then declaring Jeffers to be the primary and Caratini to be a backup catcher and 1B/DH when we have about a dozen of those on the active roster already is nonsensical.

I don't understand why the Twins acquired Jackson if they don't believe he's a viable backup option. I'm skeptical Jackson is a viable backup, but I'm not the one wasting millions of dollars on him.

I think they saw Jackson as a viable backup, but only as a backup. Caratini provides cover for 2027 (presuming there is a season) regardless of what happens with Jeffers. Under normal circumstances, I'd be ok with exposing Jackson to waivers and letting him get paid in AAA as strong insurance against a big injury, but this team's self-imposed payroll limits (based on their terrible business practices) makes this abnormal and him more likely for another trade.

Right now they're PLANNING on Jeffers being the Opening Day starter, and PROJECTING him to catch 100 games, but it won't take much for Jeffers catching to land closer to 80 again

[bunsen82]

So what is this article -  that Shelton conversed with Jeffers and confirmed that the plans as of now are for him to play 100 games.  

The writer stating sometimes Teams changed their mind.   The writer throwing a claim in they may be lying?   

So what the heck are you trying to state with this article.   I may need to decide which writers I am willing to even click on or not in the future because this was pointless.  

[USAFChief]

I'll lay 2 to 1 Ryan Jeffers is the Twins opening day catcher or on the Twins IL. 

Takers?

[HerbieFan]

FO and ownership says they think the team can compete in the division.  Whether that's delusional or not remains to be seen.  Keeping both catchers follows the preferred path for Falvey.  I 100% think they will carry out the plan to start the season.  The trade deadline, however, is another matter.....

[Riverbrian]

5 hours ago, ashbury said:

Welcome to the world of MLB economics, where player salaries are held artificially low for 6 seasons, give or take.  Even with arbitration rights, Jeffers is drawing a salary lower than he could command from the highest bidder.  So the salaries of the two players are apples-and-oranges. 

It's not nonsensical; it's regrettable that the team needed to do this.

$7M isn't a princely sum for a major leaguer, but if the Twins are paying it for a backup player then it qualifies as the Failure Tax for not having developed another catcher the normal way who would draw a minimum salary.  Jeffers is a win for the organization's drafting and development, but he's the only win in the catching department.  That's the issue, not Caratini himself, or who backs up whom for the price.

Exactly

This failure tax bill was always going to come due.

Unfortunately it came due at the exact crossroads of diminishing payroll and continued contention expectation. 

 

 

[nicksaviking]

5 hours ago, ashbury said:

$7M isn't a princely sum for a major leaguer, but if the Twins are paying it for a backup player then it qualifies as the Failure Tax for not having developed another catcher the normal way who would draw a minimum salary.  Jeffers is a win for the organization's drafting and development, but he's the only win in the catching department.  That's the issue, not Caratini himself, or who backs up whom for the price.

Great analysis.

I think you should save the template but I've made minimal edits so that you can re-use it for evaluation of every other position.

[Blyleven2011]

Jeffers , Shelton or zoll may not be lying but they are just repeating  from the main culprits mouth ( falvey ) and he is used to lying and if jeffers is traded he will put the blame on someone else .....

[stringer bell]

A couple notes: Jeffers almost certainly would have exceeded the 502 PA mark in 2025 if not for missing more than two weeks on the Concussion IL. Caratini is an option at first base and I would expect both he and Jeffers will serve as DHs quite a bit. I always thought the alternating catcher idea was a Rocco Thing. I don’t expect Shelton to be wedded to that idea. 
 

There’s a thread about the Twins waiting for “an offer they can’t refuse” and I would expect Jeffers to be in the conversation if a catcher goes down on a contending team as early as Spring Training. 

[Old Twins Hat]

Catchers get hurt quite a bit; it's a position of abuse.  And, that makes it hard to hit with all the dings and muscle exertions.

Twins have two darn good catchers to start the year.  Who else has that luxury?  A small-market team gobbles up the best FA catcher left in MLB in early January?

It's not nothing, especially if the Mets, or Dodgers, or Giants, or Red Sox have a problem later in the year.

I can hear Falvey on the phone, "Oh, he's out for the year, you don't say..."

Never hurts to load up on a position of need in advance.

[Whitey333]

IMO the Twins should trade Ryan (to get a decent return while you can) Lopez ( to save $) Buxton (because of a good haul and because he deserves to be with a contender)  and Jeffers because he will be a free agent soon and it is very unlikely they are making any long term contract commitments. 

[mluebker]

The mock trade article over on Sports Illustrated was more fun. https://www.si.com/mlb/padres/onsi/san-diego-padres-news/blockbuster-mock-trade-sends-byron-buxton-joe-ryan-san-diego-01kfs8b088f1

[SteveLV]

Don't like that SD trade.  Why would the Twins want to take back that Pivetta contract?  Maybe a 3-way where another team takes him and the Twins get more young, cheap, controllable players???  Also don't want the 23 year old "prospect" who can't hit in AA.

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, Cris E said:

Plus it sure simplifies things for writers.  They can ignore what the teams say, write whatever they want, and use scary words like LIE. 

Occam's Razor says that management probably knows they've been incredibly lucky the past four years in how much catching they've gotten from Jeffers and Vasquez, and that the catchers behind Jeffers were unplayable last year. So maybe they want to have 160 games worth of decent talent on the 24 man roster just in case someone takes a foul tip off the thumb and we're not treated to another month of Gasper and Paredes levels of awful. Jackson may or may not play into this as it's unclear he can hit at all. His best performance in the majors was an 85 OPS+ six years ago (in 7 plate appearances.) (Oh sorry, that overlooks his 111 OPS+ last year.  Consider me skeptical, especially since that was only 100 AB and he had a 26 OPS+ in 155AB the year before. 26.)

Agree completely with slant in first paragraph.

As the writer, isn’t there a shade of not being honest in making Caratini’s Salary of approximately 10-12% more than Jeffers being an issue for playing time? Vazquez made more than 2X - 3X Jeffers for the duration of his contract and never approached a skewed amount of starts.

Jeffers catching 70 of first 110 games and then getting traded at Deadline is possible. He may have some success as the Top guy and the Twins may offer an extension by July 1st - doubtful but things happen……probably backs won’t agree with stating?

Jackson is. it a sought after catcher for ANY of the 31 other Teams so he’ll pass through after DFA’d and Twin’s will try to keep him at AAA with MiLB deal meeting his $1.8M plus a tiny bonus……..best case for Jackson.

[Riverbrian]

I hate the "Lie" word. 

What is a GM supposed to do when he really doesn't know the answer to the questions that are constantly asked. 

The Twins may plan on keeping Jeffers and they can answer the questions concerning Jeffers by saying that we plan on keeping Jeffers. Jeffers wants to know what is going on so they tell his agent that they plan on keeping Jeffers as the primary catcher. 

This all changes when a trade package comes along that changes their mind. 

Do we want them tied to their word if they get a deal they shouldn't refuse. Do we really have to call them liars if they take the deal?  

 

[Chembry]

7 hours ago, mluebker said:

The mock trade article over on Sports Illustrated was more fun. https://www.si.com/mlb/padres/onsi/san-diego-padres-news/blockbuster-mock-trade-sends-byron-buxton-joe-ryan-san-diego-01kfs8b088f1

That trade is horrible...SD has the worst farm system in baseball.  They only have 1 prospect in the top 100 via MLB pipeline (Schoolcraft) and ESPN (Salas), and zero in BA's top 100.  The proposed trade calls the return a "haul" for the Twins...  Basically, it's trading Ryan and Buxton to SD for Nick Pavetta. Pavetta still has 4 years and $55M remaining.  

The top prospect they are sending back is Humberto Cruz.  Cruz pitched 40 innings between 2 levels (rookie and A) and got beat up pretty bad (0-7, 7.20 ERA, 1.50 WHIP).  I don't see how that is a haul and how that benefits the Twins in anyway. 

If you or anyone else is interested, Bleacher Report put out some mock trades yesterday.  Both Buxton and Ryan are included.  I would say the packages are much more respectable.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25369823-fresh-mlb-trade-packages-top-10-rumored-targets  

[Chembry]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I hate the "Lie" word. 

What is a GM supposed to do when he really doesn't know the answer to the questions that are constantly asked. 

The Twins may plan on keeping Jeffers and they can answer the questions concerning Jeffers by saying that we plan on keeping Jeffers. Jeffers wants to know what is going on so they tell his agent that they plan on keeping Jeffers as the primary catcher. 

This all changes when a trade package comes along that changes their mind. 

Do we want them tied to their word if they get a deal they shouldn't refuse. Do we really have to call them liars if they take the deal?  

 

Exactly!  The landscape is changing all the time.  Next week, any of the other 29 MLB teams may have an injury to their primary C or one of their SP.  They may come asking the Twins for Jeffers or Ryan/Lopez with a trade package that changes the Twins mind.  Ha-Seong Kim was back in Korea, slipped on some ice and tore a tendon in his right middle finger.  He had surgery to repair and now is out until June.  

I believe this is exactly what happened when the Twins traded Varland. I don't think the Twins had any intention of trading Varland.  Cory Provus gave some color commentary a few days after the deadline and said that the Blue Jays had been trying to acquire Varland for a few years.  They really like Varland.  When the Blue Jays came back with a package of Rojas (who the Twins really like) and Roden (who has crushed AAA), the Twins said yes.

The question starts at the 4 minute timepoint: