The Twins Are Waiting On an Offer They Can’t Refuse

[Linus]

2 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

I used to be in agreement re: a work stoppage, but after thinking about it and seeing how MLB has gone all in on aligning all TV rights for new deals from 2029 forward, I think there will be a lot of posturing and maybe even a delayed spring training, but ultimately the proverbial can gets kicked down the road to the next CBA without any foundational changes to player salaries.  Shutting the sport down leading into arguably the most important round of broadcast-rights-shopping they've ever had is an absolute doomsday scenario for both sides. 

I think it's more likely than not that a 2027 work stoppage and/or a seismic shift in salary structure don't come to fruition, and I wonder if teams will treat this trade deadline and next offseason accordingly

I appreciate these thoughts as I’ve been viewing it the other way. Meaning, the collapse of the RSNs and corresponding income means many owners will be more motivated to make gains in the next CBA.  I can see your side too so it will be interesting to watch it play out. 

[mickster]

1 hour ago, srlarson said:

Let's start w the following assumptions......

- there will be no 2027 season due to work stoppage, (or significantly shortened)

- The Twins are a sub .500 team in 2026

We need to trade all assets that have limited contracts remaining...build the farm system...and wait for the new labor landscape....drop the payroll as much as possible and let compete w colorado and White sox for most losses this season....

Trade Ryan and Lopez...have the honest conversation w Buxton....and any other major league asset you can move out.....

Going to be long year either way...so might as well build some hope and talent in st. paul!!  

I think the Twins are better than a lot on TD give them credit for.   Yes, the pain/anger of the deadline dismantle still burns.   However, the farm system is loaded.   If we get production from some, and not just average then the gap is narrowed.   Couple that with trading some prospects to fill needs while not gutting the farm system puts them in a position to contend post work stoppage.

[Elite Benchwarmer]

Quality SP have tremendous value, especially with multiple years of control.  I believe the odds of the Twins trading Lopez or Ryan by Aug 3 is around 100%.  If they stay healthy and performance is similar to their recent track record, the return should increase over time.  Injuries and post-season needs will drive the value higher. 

I hope the Twins demand young major-league ready talent.  (Not expecting that, however.)

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

…….and Team has #3 pick this coming draft.

Maybe not if there's a strike. MiLB players are now represented by the MLBPA and the CBA.

[bean5302]

6 minutes ago, mickster said:

I think the Twins are better than a lot on TD give them credit for.   Yes, the pain/anger of the deadline dismantle still burns.   However, the farm system is loaded.   If we get production from some, and not just average then the gap is narrowed.   Couple that with trading some prospects to fill needs while not gutting the farm system puts them in a position to contend post work stoppage.

They "could" be way better, but it requires a bounce-back or step forward from almost the entire roster to be a legitimate playoff / World Series contender. Expecting everything to go the Twins' way is unreasonable, but it has technically happened in baseball history.

[LA Vikes Fan]

3 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I would not have traded Ryan nor Lopez for either of the packages received by Texas or the Mets. Both Texas and the Mets are desperate to compete with more successful franchises in their respective viewing areas. Success is today, because tomorrow never comes. It's always a day away. 

Agreed. Neither package paid by Texas or the Mets is particularly impressive. Both were all prospects all "hope", no substance. That's the kind of package you look for and take on July 31 (Aug 4 this year) when you're 10 games under .500 and out of contention. I cling to the belief that the plan is to see how things play out and if the first half shows a complete rebuild is necessary, then you trade off guys like Ryan, Lopez and/or Buxton, plus Bell, Caratini and Jeffers. I'm pretty confident that we can get a package as good or better than those two teams got at the deadline, especially for quality starting pitching with a year plus of control remaining like Lopez and Ryan. The risk is injury. It's a real risk but to me one worth taking to see if this team can perform for the first half.   

[Cris E]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

They "could" be way better, but it requires a bounce-back or step forward from almost the entire roster to be a legitimate playoff / World Series contender. Expecting everything to go the Twins' way is unreasonable, but it has technically happened in baseball history.

They need Lewis to step up, Lee to continue improving, Ober to be over his hip injury and the young pitching to mature.  If the rest of the roster stands still that's enough to stay in a fight around 82 wins, and both history and direct communications from the front office indicate that the roster is not set yet. 

[Cris E]

2 hours ago, srlarson said:

Let's start w the following assumptions......

- there will be no 2027 season due to work stoppage, (or significantly shortened)

- The Twins are a sub .500 team in 2026

Neither of these things is at all certain. Many sources are indicating that the owners know they have to fix the revenue problems among themselves and that won't get easier by locking out players. And a few people stepping up in 2026 can make a big difference in what happens this season. A .500 record might put them smack in a race in this weak division, and anything happening to Witt or Skubal will utterly tumble the DET or KC seasons. 

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

If Louie Varland wasn’t from Minnesota nobody would utter the “we have to be wowed to trade Varland” statement. Rojas, was the chip, Roden was along for the ride and since he’s older, he gets more focus than he should. Rojas is the starter (potentially) that Varland wasn’t going to be.

A younger, cheaper guy that hasn’t washed out as a starter yet, as Jax had, is what they got in return, as well as cheaper with more control.

Jax had just an OK ‘25 - certainly nothing special.

Varland can throw a lot of innings with lots of upside. He also gives up a bunch of HR’s. Louie’s ERA in ‘23 was 4.63 and his ERA in ‘24 was 7.61 and his ERA for Twin’s in ‘25 was 2.02 ………in 23 outings in Toronto it was 4.94. He pitched a bunch in the Playoffs but his ERA was still 4.94, with a WHIP of 1.394 for August/September. He’s a decent reliever - because he’s from Minnesota, fans think he’s outstanding.

Just to be clear, I don't give a rip that Varland is from Minnesota and I am aware of their inconsistent play. The point was more that they ended up taking the best offers they had rather than "waiting to be wowed" like they are supposedly doing now. I get selling Jax when they did but Varland has another 5 years of control and they could have waited to trade him. It concerns me that they could do the same with Ryan / Lopez. Obviously they will have higher value than the relievers we traded but I'm talking relative value. 

[miller761]

I don't know why we keep talking about getting KFA for $5 mil. Spend that money on the bullpen. He is just another mediocre MLB player. We have enough of them already.

[bean5302]

Just now, Cris E said:

They need Lewis to step up, Lee to continue improving, Ober to be over his hip injury and the young pitching to mature.  If the rest of the roster stands still that's enough to stay in a fight around 82 wins, and both history and direct communications from the front office indicate that the roster is not set yet. 

The optimistic ceiling for the Twins:
C - Jeffers 2.5
1B - Bell 1.0
2B - Keaschall 3.0
SS - Lee 2.0
3B - Lewis 5.0
LF - Martin 2.0
CF - Buxton 5.0
RF - Wallner 4.0
DH - Larnach 1.5
BC - Caratini 2.0
UO - Outman/Roden 1.0
UI - Clemens 1.0
UI - Arcia 0.5

SP - Lopez 4.0
SP - Ryan 3.5
SP - Ober 3.0
SP - Matthews 3.0
SP - Bradley 2.0

RP - Rogers 1.0
RP - Topa 1.0
RP - Sands 1.0
RP - Funderburk 0.5
RP - Orze 0.5
RP - SWR 0.5 
RP - ? 0.5
RP - ? 0.5

50.5 + 45 = 95 wins. Totally and completely unreasonable, but theoretically possible.

 

[D.C Twins]

'If the Twins find themselves below .500 at the trade deadline and are not confident in a postseason push'

(Narrator's Voice; deep authoritative baritone): The Twins do not need to wait until the trade deadline to know that there will be no postseason push this year.

[Cris E]

9 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Totally and completely unreasonable, but theoretically possible.

And of course not what I said. 

[D.C Twins]

9 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The optimistic ceiling for the Twins:
C - Jeffers 2.5
1B - Bell 1.0
2B - Keaschall 3.0
SS - Lee 2.0
3B - Lewis 5.0
LF - Martin 2.0
CF - Buxton 5.0
RF - Wallner 4.0
DH - Larnach 1.5
BC - Caratini 2.0
UO - Outman/Roden 1.0
UI - Clemens 1.0
UI - Arcia 0.5

SP - Lopez 4.0
SP - Ryan 3.5
SP - Ober 3.0
SP - Matthews 3.0
SP - Bradley 2.0

RP - Rogers 1.0
RP - Topa 1.0
RP - Sands 1.0
RP - Funderburk 0.5
RP - Orze 0.5
RP - SWR 0.5 
RP - ? 0.5
RP - ? 0.5

50.5 + 45 = 95 wins. Totally and completely unreasonable, but theoretically possible.

 

The ones that made me giggle the loudest:

1. Lewis WAR of 5

2. Outman and Roden having any type of a positive WAR

3. Jeffers and Caratini having a combined 4.5 WAR

4. Wallner WAR at 4

5. Arcia having any type of positive WAR

6  The Bullpen WAR overall

(bonus that did not make me giggle but is important to consider). The SP WAR:  Ober (velocity), Matthews and Bradly have A LOT to prove to justify those WARs. 2 of those pitchers at least will have at least some injury issues and likely to be replaced by replacement level

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 hours ago, HeresWaldo said:

 The problem with these model-driven trades is that Aces are harder to find than large collections of mediocre major leaguers.

That about sums it up.

[Over The Hill Again]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

If Louie Varland wasn’t from Minnesota nobody would utter the “we have to be wowed to trade Varland” statement. Rojas, was the chip, Roden was along for the ride and since he’s older, he gets more focus than he should. Rojas is the starter (potentially) that Varland wasn’t going to be.

A younger, cheaper guy that hasn’t washed out as a starter yet, as Jax had, is what they got in return, as well as cheaper with more control.

Jax had just an OK ‘25 - certainly nothing special.

Varland can throw a lot of innings with lots of upside. He also gives up a bunch of HR’s. Louie’s ERA in ‘23 was 4.63 and his ERA in ‘24 was 7.61 and his ERA for Twin’s in ‘25 was 2.02 ………in 23 outings in Toronto it was 4.94. He pitched a bunch in the Playoffs but his ERA was still 4.94, with a WHIP of 1.394 for August/September. He’s a decent reliever - because he’s from Minnesota, fans think he’s outstanding.

Naw I didn’t think he was outstanding, per se, but as a local fan from the Twin Cities he created slightly more interest in a franchise that has been shedding fans/supporters in recent years. 

[The Great Hambino]

43 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Just to be clear, I don't give a rip that Varland is from Minnesota and I am aware of their inconsistent play. The point was more that they ended up taking the best offers they had rather than "waiting to be wowed" like they are supposedly doing now. I get selling Jax when they did but Varland has another 5 years of control and they could have waited to trade him. It concerns me that they could do the same with Ryan / Lopez. Obviously they will have higher value than the relievers we traded but I'm talking relative value. 

If Varland were still on the roster, he would be their top bullpen option on Opening Day while carrying a minimum salary.  For a team slashing their budget and desperate for bullpen pieces while still thinking it's a contender, that seems like it would've been a useful thing to have on hand

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Then why not trade Walker Jenkins and the rest of the farm for established players?

I actually hope they do trade some of their prospects (not Jenkins) for established players. After seeing how little it took to get Gore from Washington, I'd love to see the Twins trade with them to add CJ Abrams to the roster.

It makes little sense to keep Ryan, Buxton, Lopez, Ober and Jeffers if they aren't going to add some players who can help in 2026-27.

[Brandon]

50 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

The ones that made me giggle the loudest:

1. Lewis WAR of 5

2. Outman and Roden having any type of a positive WAR

3. Jeffers and Caratini having a combined 4.5 WAR

4. Wallner WAR at 4

5. Arcia having any type of positive WAR

6  The Bullpen WAR overall

(bonus that did not make me giggle but is important to consider). The SP WAR:  Ober (velocity), Matthews and Bradly have A LOT to prove to justify those WARs. 2 of those pitchers at least will have at least some injury issues and likely to be replaced by replacement level

 

Wallner has 2 half seasons of 2.2 WAR so a ceiling of 4 is possible.  I think 3-3.5 is likely over 500 ABs in a season.

Lewis could break out with the 5 WAR.  Probably based on past power with over .900 OPS.  More likely.850 cap over a full season.  And 3.5 WAR

Getting some decent outings from the bullpen is critical to a 90 win season.  

 

 

[arby58]

Realistically, the Twins' greatest needs are C and 1B - not much coming up the pipeline in the foreseeable future. If I were going to deal Ryan, it would be for a package headed by  the Orioles Samuel Basallo. He's currently the #8 ranked prospect by MLB.com, and he signed an 8-year, $67 million contract extension last year. That's a significant commitment, but if Ryan is traded away and Jeffers leaves, it more than covers it. According to the trade simulator, it is fairly close - Ryan has surplus value of 51.7, and Basallo 47.1. So Baltimore throws in another prospect or two. I think the Twins would seriously consider that trade.

[jorgenswest]

3 hours ago, Linus said:

Call San Fran and get Eldridge and a reliever or SS prospect.  Finally solves first base and possibly one of the many starter candidates steps up. 

Recent reporting has the Giants pulling back in trading Eldridge. They were interested in Gore and Abrams of the Nationals but were unwilling to move Eldridge. It suppose it might be different if Skubal were made available.

[jorgenswest]

The addition of Myers cannot be minimized. He went to the Mets with 5 years of control after having pitched 188 major league innings with a 3.15 ERA. He is far more than a throw in.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Maybe not if there's a strike. MiLB players are now represented by the MLBPA and the CBA.

How does the 2026 Draft have anything to do with, what I assume you are referring to …… the potential 2027 lockout?

[JD-TWINS]

21 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Realistically, the Twins' greatest needs are C and 1B - not much coming up the pipeline in the foreseeable future. If I were going to deal Ryan, it would be for a package headed by  the Orioles Samuel Basallo. He's currently the #8 ranked prospect by MLB.com, and he signed an 8-year, $67 million contract extension last year. That's a significant commitment, but if Ryan is traded away and Jeffers leaves, it more than covers it. According to the trade simulator, it is fairly close - Ryan has surplus value of 51.7, and Basallo 47.1. So Baltimore throws in another prospect or two. I think the Twins would seriously consider that trade.

I don’t see the Orioles, who are not cash strapped, trading a guy they just extended a few months ago (can sign Valdez or others in FA market)………. this extension may make Adley Rutschman available from the O’s perspective, as his offense seems to have leveled off.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Cris E said:

And of course not what I said. 

I think it's pretty much exactly what you said. The team has more talent than what people are giving credit for, and there's ceiling.

My projection is not unrealistic for any given player. Every single number I posted is reasonable given past performances and ceiling.

Unless you were implying like 2-3 players improving would be enough on their own to add 20+ wins to last year's results? Sorry, but that's pretty well impossible as we don't have 3 Shohei Ohtani's on the roster.

 

 

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

If Louie Varland wasn’t from Minnesota nobody would utter the “we have to be wowed to trade Varland” statement. Rojas, was the chip, Roden was along for the ride and since he’s older, he gets more focus than he should. Rojas is the starter (potentially) that Varland wasn’t going to be.

A younger, cheaper guy that hasn’t washed out as a starter yet, as Jax had, is what they got in return, as well as cheaper with more control.

Jax had just an OK ‘25 - certainly nothing special.

Varland can throw a lot of innings with lots of upside. He also gives up a bunch of HR’s. Louie’s ERA in ‘23 was 4.63 and his ERA in ‘24 was 7.61 and his ERA for Twin’s in ‘25 was 2.02 ………in 23 outings in Toronto it was 4.94. He pitched a bunch in the Playoffs but his ERA was still 4.94, with a WHIP of 1.394 for August/September. He’s a decent reliever - because he’s from Minnesota, fans think he’s outstanding.

The he is from Minnesota bit is interesting. Do you think  the people on this site think Forrest Lake is in Canada or is it because Wallner played his college ball down south he is no longer a Minnesotan? He certainly doesn’t get the love that Varland does 

[stringer bell]

I agree that Ryan would bring a far greater return. His salary will increase dramatically in ‘27. It is of note that Joe and Pablo are only three months apart in age and that each player’s most significant injury for the Twins was a teres major strain. Lopez has said he wants to lead the staff and mentor. I’d like for him to stay for the duration of his contract. 
 

Getting value for Ryan and perhaps Jeffers might be a good move and might not hurt the Twins’ prospects for success in 2026. 

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

The ones that made me giggle the loudest:

1. Lewis WAR of 5

2. Outman and Roden having any type of a positive WAR

3. Jeffers and Caratini having a combined 4.5 WAR

4. Wallner WAR at 4

5. Arcia having any type of positive WAR

6  The Bullpen WAR overall

(bonus that did not make me giggle but is important to consider). The SP WAR:  Ober (velocity), Matthews and Bradly have A LOT to prove to justify those WARs. 2 of those pitchers at least will have at least some injury issues and likely to be replaced by replacement level

 

He did say optimistic. At their near ceiling level of play and staying healthy, the guess is possible. Doubtful, 

[old nurse]

The trades cited are almost reasons not to trade. The return for Gore reminds me of the return for Johan. The return for Perralta was a back of the rotation type pitcher and a ranked prospect falling down the rankings. The pitcher could end up contribute to winning. The position player could contribute to whining

[SteveLV]

If San Fran does not want to trade Eldridge, I don't see anything in the Giants farm that works for Ryan.  They have a 44th ranked SS prospect who is 18 in Rookie ball and nothing else too exciting.

Baltimore seems highly unlikely to move Basallo right after signing him to long extension to lock up all his arbitration years.  Absent Basallo, nothing else in their farm moves the needle much, even though they do need SP.

Yankees and BoSox may still be looking for SP.  Who else?