Homegrown, High Picks, and Hard Questions

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

The Twins' projected lineup is a testament to the team's commitment to building from within, and to the success of their scouting and development pipeline. Seven of the nine projected starters were drafted and developed by the organization, and every one of those seven was selected in either the first or second round. In a vacuum, that kind of alignment feels like a win. Draft well, develop well, and let those players carry the roster.

But context matters. The team hasn't made the playoffs in either of the last two years, and this season doesn't look likely to break that pattern. Is this lineup a sign that the Twins are maximizing value from premium draft picks, or is it a reflection of financial realities pushing inexpensive, controllable players into everyday roles?

The answer, as is often the case, likely lies somewhere in between the extremes.

The Case for Optimism
There is no denying the upside in what the Twins have built. First- and second-round picks are supposed to become core players. Many do not. Minnesota has managed to turn a long list of those selections into legitimate big-league contributors and, in some cases, foundational pieces.

Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, and Luke Keaschall all project as everyday starters. That group spans more than a decade of drafts, from Buxton in 2012 to Keaschall in 2023. The timeline alone suggests this is not a one-year fluke, but rather the product of sustained investment at the top of the draft.

According to FanGraphs, the Twins' projected lineup against right-handed pitchers is:

1. CF Byron Buxton (1st Round- 2012)
2. 2B Luke Keashall (2nd Round- 2023)
3. 1B Josh Bell (Free Agent)
4. RF Matt Wallner (1st Round- 2019)
5. C Ryan Jeffers (2nd Round- 2018)
6. DH Trevor Larnach (1st Round- 2018)
7. 3B Royce Lewis (1st Round- 2017)
8. SS Brooks Lee (1st Round- 2022)
9. LF Austin Martin (Trade)

Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey sees that through the lens of process.

“What I think it says is that we’ve had a run of guys that we’ve identified in the draft, near the top,” Falvey said. “No one is going to bat 1.000 in the draft—we all know that—but we have a number of picks who have found a way to contribute at the big-league level. It speaks a lot to our development process, too.”

There is also value in cost certainty. These players are producing while still under team control, allowing the Twins to allocate resources elsewhere if ownership allows the front office to spend. When draft picks turn into everyday players, the return on investment is significant.

The Counterargument
The other side of the conversation is less comfortable. While the lineup is filled with former high draft picks, it is notably light on proven, impact bats acquired from outside the organization. Only Josh Bell and Austin Martin project to start after coming over from another team at any point, and Martin arrived in trade while still a prospect.

That absence is not just philosophical. It is financial. Minnesota is projected to operate with a payroll in the league’s bottom third, and the lineup reflects it. Cheap players are not just nice to have. They are (unfortunately) necessary.

It's hard not to draw parallels to the Metrodome era, when the Twins routinely fielded rosters built around young, inexpensive talent because they had little choice. Those teams developed well, but they also often lacked the external reinforcements needed to push from mere respectability to contention.

Falvey has acknowledged that roster building cannot rely on a single path.

“I don’t think there is one-size-fits-all for any team,” he said. “You need to have some homegrown players. There have been stretches of time where we’ve had a bunch of acquisitions on our team. Two of the pitchers at the top of our rotation were traded for, Pablo and Joe, at different stages of their careers. Jhoan Duran was a trade, but he was in [Class A] and we grew him up through the minor leagues.”

The concern is whether the current balance is intentional or forced—and whether the team's development infrastructure is good enough to make the most of this homegrown approach. With the exceptions of Buxton and Jeffers, the homegrown hitters holding onto lineup spots have interspersed flashes of brilliance into long periods of either struggle or injury-related absence.

Development Versus Ambition
Falvey has consistently stressed the importance of blending acquisition methods, rather than shutting any doors.

“You don’t want to shut off any valves to potentially get talent into your system,” he said. “Probably the best teams overall, over time, find a way to blend all of that. They get their top draft picks, they pick out a few guys later in the draft. In our case, that’s a Bailey Ober or a Griffin Jax converting himself from an up-and-down starter to a good reliever. We need more of that.”

The Twins have done much of that work already. The question is what comes next. If this lineup represents a foundation that will be supplemented aggressively when the time is right, it's easy to view it as a positive sign. If it represents the ceiling imposed by payroll limitations, the optimism dims.

A Familiar Crossroads
League-wide, no team projects more first- and second-round homegrown position players in its starting lineup than the Twins. That is an accomplishment worth noting. At the same time, projections do not see Minnesota as a clear contender.

Thus, the lineup becomes a Rorschach test. It can be read as evidence of strong drafting and development finally paying off. It can also be read as a reminder of past Twins teams that survived on efficiency, rather than ambition. Perhaps the truth is that it's both. The Twins are getting real value from their earliest draft picks. Whether that value is being leveraged into something more meaningful will determine how this era is ultimately remembered.

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Are the Twins seeing the payoff of strong drafting and development, or are these players in the lineup more because they are affordable than because the roster is complete? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Nashvilletwin]

“Minnesota has managed to turn a long list of those selections into legitimate big-league contributors and, in some cases, foundational pieces”. 

Then Buxton, Lewis, Lee, Wallner, Larnach, Jeffers and Keaschall are listed as examples. These claims/statements are so ridiculous and inaccurate that it obviated the need/desire to read the rest of the post. The only “long list” is the list of failures under Falvey/Rocco et al.

Buxton and Jeffers - yes. But from a different regime. The rest are either big disappointments to date (Lewis, Lee, Larnach), platoon players (Wallner, Larnach), likely utility players at best (Lee - the TD can’t wait for Culpepper to take over SS), had their careers to date mismanaged (Lewis, Larnach, Wallner) or yet to be proven (Keaschall). Btw, Martin should be added to list and could be included in many of the above categories. Not one of those at this point is a legitimate every day reliable major league contributor. Just because they are in the projected starting lineup for our beloved Twins does not make it so. 

Now, some may still get there with Lewis and Keaschall being the most likely. Let’s hope so.

But to even suggest that position player development under Falvey has even had a modicum of success is just pure propaganda. 

 

[Patzky]

I do have an elephant in the room concern..  are fans safely going to be able to attend game in an occupied city or do the Twins need to explore other alternatives such as Wichita?

 

It's not a politics question so much as a valid one with the evidence we have today. 

[old nurse]

So now it is a bad thing that the team has drafted players playing.  

To read the commences one could think that Outman and Roden were going to be the outfielders. They were traded for. I guess wait and see and complain then 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I still just can't see Larnach back. Or Wallner I guess. But I don't see the fit for carrying both on opening day with how many other options, especially better defensive options, are ready to be up by May or June if nothing else. I know we list him at DH, but I still think Josh Bell as the primary dh makes a lot of sense with better defenders covering defense at 1B. I could be wrong.

Not saying they will get much in trade for Larnch. I just don't see the fit here.

[Nashvilletwin]

5 minutes ago, old nurse said:

So now it is a bad thing that the team has drafted players playing.  

To read the commences one could think that Outman and Roden were going to be the outfielders. They were traded for. I guess wait and see and complain then 

Actually it’s a good thing that our drafted players (and those mostly developed in our system like Martin) are actually playing.  It’s wonderful to see and the right move, especially for a cash constrained franchise like the Twins. Time to see what they can do (notwithstanding the retreads brought in to still steal innings and ABs). I personally hope we see much more of it as the season progresses.

But to claim as the author did that most of these young players finally getting their true legit chance are already “legitimate contributors” is a bit disingenuous. 

[rdehring]

The point that struck me was when I noticed that Lewis was drafted in 2017.  Can't believe that he has been a Twin for going on nine years.  Would have thought he would be Derek Jeter by now.

Agree with those above questioning the quality of those draft picks.  Also, those questioning having both Larnach and Wallner in starting positions on opening day.  I would hope that Larnach is opening with another team and Wallner departs by summer.  Bring on the kids!

[LambchoP]

I truly think they should've just finished what they started last year and traded away what's left of the roster. We're not competing this year, it's clear they are not serious about adding real talent. They should have just traded Ryan Lopez Jeffers and Buxton and loaded up on AA, AAA talent. The next two years will be auditions for the future. This halfway, in-between crap is what keeps us from ever getting better.

[Major League Ready]

21 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I truly think they should've just finished what they started last year and traded away what's left of the roster. We're not competing this year, it's clear they are not serious about adding real talent. They should have just traded Ryan Lopez Jeffers and Buxton and loaded up on AA, AAA talent. The next two years will be auditions for the future. This halfway, in-between crap is what keeps us from ever getting better.

It's Jan 15th so there is still time but it sure looks like the kind of "half-measures" we were told Joe Pohlad would not pursue.  This looks like an attempt to stay close enough in the standings to keep fans engaged.  Unfortunately, the cost to future teams is probably considerable.  My guess is that they play the "were keeping Ryan/Lopez and Buxton" card until the deadline when it will be easier to convince fans they need to sell off.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, Patzky said:

I do have an elephant in the room concern..  are fans safely going to be able to attend game in an occupied city or do the Twins need to explore other alternatives such as Wichita?

 

It's not a politics question so much as a valid one with the evidence we have today. 

Haven't looked, but based on this comment I assume Grand Casino and target center are suffering from an attendance drop? 

[DJL44]

56 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Haven't looked, but based on this comment I assume Grand Casino and target center are suffering from an attendance drop? 

The Wild were sold out on Saturday night.

[sweetmusicviola16]

3 hours ago, Patzky said:

I do have an elephant in the room concern..  are fans safely going to be able to attend game in an occupied city or do the Twins need to explore other alternatives such as Wichita?

 

It's not a politics question so much as a valid one with the evidence we have today. 

Not a political response to your question either, but we have a huge problem when you have masked men bearing no badge number harrasing US citizens. Not a clue who these guys even are since they hide behind said masks. I'm 300 miles away from the center of it and going to stay as far away as I can get. 

[Patzky]

8 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Not a political response to your question either, but we have a huge problem when you have masked men bearing no badge number harrasing US citizens. Not a clue who these guys even are since they hide behind said masks. I'm 300 miles away from the center of it and going to stay as far away as I can get. 

Valid and sensible plan

[jmlease1]

3 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

had their careers to date mismanaged (Lewis, Larnach, Wallner)

How were these guys mismanaged?

Royce getting hurt all the time isn't anyone's fault really, and that's far and away been the biggest issue in his career. (I'm aware that he wasn't good at the plate last season and it extended back to 2024, but he was also hurt for extended periods in both effing years)

What did they do wrong with Larnach? He's also been hurt a lot, and the reality is he simply hasn't hit enough to be more than ok. Having him DH more than play LF or RF is mismanagement? What are we talking about?

Wallner has been good overall and the Twins have used his options to have him get a re-set from slumps before and he's responded. Last season was a down year for him (and he missed extended time with an injury), but what exactly did they do that was mismanagement?

Injuries aren't anyone's "fault", as a rule. And maybe the less than ideal production is more on the players than management.

[weitz41]

I'd like to say I think this FO has done very well with the draft.

For every 1st and 2nd round pick that makes it to MLB and is a "contributor" there's 3-4 that don't. 

No, they haven't hit any home runs, but lots of single and doubles. But better to hit a home run with guys on base then a solo shot.

Just ask Wallner about that...

Going to avoid the political posts. My sarcasm, well-meaning or not, will only get me in trouble with both sides.

[nicksaviking]

*****Moderator Note*****

This article has zero relevance to anything political, please get back on topic.

As to the topic of if an occupied city can host MLB games, that may be a valid discussion, but elsewhere, and there will be zero tolerance for straying outside of that very narrow lane.

[Linus]

This is kind of a weird article. We are giving props to the Twins because they used high draft picks to construct a lineup that is poor offensively, poor in the field and slow as well?

Sometimes we get way too far into the weeds on some of this stuff. Take a step back and use actual performance and results to determine how effective the club has been in any given area. 

[Fatbat]

10 hours ago, LambchoP said:

I truly think they should've just finished what they started last year and traded away what's left of the roster. We're not competing this year, it's clear they are not serious about adding real talent. They should have just traded Ryan Lopez Jeffers and Buxton and loaded up on AA, AAA talent. The next two years will be auditions for the future. This halfway, in-between crap is what keeps us from ever getting better.

We can get better value in July for just about any trade piece. 

[Fatbat]

As much as I want to see a big crop of rookies in ‘26 & ‘27, we need professional AB’s and guys that can get big outs.  ‘26 is going to be painful. 

[DocBauer]

I'm going to have to disagree with the OP that NOT having more players on the team from OUTSIDE the organization is a bad indicator. In fact, I think it's just the opposite. While the Twins have "blown" a couple early round picks...and EVERYONE does...the fact that they can field a starting lineup with almost all home grown drafted and developed players is a very positive indicator. 

Now, don't get me wrong, we haven't exactly seen all of the players listed play completely up to their abilities as of yet, I'm not blind, but the talent, and at times, the production HAS been evident for the most part. So let's examine the provided list;

BUXTON: He's an absolute stud when he's been healthy enough to perform. He's absolutely one of the most talented and exciting players to ever wear a Twins uniform. He's learned...much like Hunter did...to not always sacrifice his body. His migraines seem to be under control. With all due respect to medical science these days, what's MADDENING to me is that something as seemingly simple as removing his plica in his bad knee could have been done BEFORE 2023. What a difference that has made! We're finally seeing Buxton as a 100+ games played performer the past 2 seasons. But could it have been 3 years instead? While he's over 30 now, he's still DAMN good!

LEWIS: His knee injuries are certainly not his fault. Unfortunately, crap happens. We've seen him awesome. We've seen him bad. And we've seen him OK. And despite everything he's been through, he's STILL only 26yo! His improvement at 3B, a decent 2nd half, the most games he's played ever in 2025, and the fact that he felt good enough to begin running again in 2025...successfully I might add...gives me hope his body is "settling in" from physical changes. Now, can he begin to STAY healthy going forward? Can he find an approach/swing that feels comfortable? He doesn't have to be the Superman he's flashed previously to be very good. I sure wouldn't bet against a 26yo with that much talent. 

WALLNER: He had a solid debut and 2 years of an OPS of around .875. That's OUTSTANDING. I know he got an early season re-set each of those seasons, but IMO, those re-sets were far too long. He's always going to be a bit streaky, and the Twins should recognize that and understand that. But you can't dismiss how good he was in '23 and '24. Injuries affected him and messed with him for 2025, and his OPS was still above league average. His terrific arm mitigates being an average OF, and he's best as the Twins primary DH, and he doesn't even have to be a .875 OPS hitter to be damn good. I'm certainly not betting against him being really good in 2026 and beyond. He's already shown how good he can be.

LARNACH: Look, I don't dislike Larnach. But he doesn't FIT the team going forward and should be moved however possible. We've all discussed this at length. And he's never developed in to the hitter/producer we hoped for. But for a 1st round pick in the 20's, he's become an AVERAGE ML hitter. That means he's achieved about a 70-75% outcome for a 1st round pick. While some might not recognize that, or just refuse to accept it, that's a positive result for a said draftee. Doesn't matter he doesn't fit and he should be gone at this time, for this team, his outcome has been a success. 

JEFFERS: He's not great defensively, but he's OK. I think he might have slipped a bit in 2025, but he's solid as a game caller and handler of the staff. He's been about average as a thrower, though that can be affected by the staff as well. And he's consistently been one of the best offensive catchers in MLB since his debut. 

KEASCHALL: It's kinda weird to put him in this conversation considering he is just coming off his rookie season. Especially considering he was also coming off TJ surgery, and then got the same arm broke on a bad pitch. Despite all of that, his MILB performance and rookie ML performance has been tantalizing. He should be the 2B for ALL of 2026 and the whole idea of experimenting with him in the OF is misguided as hell. The fact that he COULD be a good OF, and spend time there, is great. But he has the potential to be the best, long term 2B for the Twins since when? Since Knoblauch maybe? KEEP him at 2B and let him settle in and develop with a healthy arm and tons of athletic ability. He's got the ability, just let him adjust again to the nuances of the position.

LEE: I kept him for last for a reason. I am SICK AND TIRED of so many people banging on Lee. He was drafted in 2022, rushed through MILB because he was productive, and debuted in 2024 with 172 official AB. The ROOKIE standard is 150 AB. So he entered 2025 22 AB away from being considered an actual "rookie". 

When drafted, there was a general consensus that he could "handle" SS, but was probably a future 3B or 2B. But his bat and high contract rate would make him a quality hitter, with some question about his power. Well, his 16 HR and 64 RBI weren't bad for a near rookie. And I watched a TON of Twins games in 2025 until the last month. He's got the tools to be a solid player at 3B and 2B, and he CAN cover SS. (I don't give a damn about metrics. I know the potential in what I saw). But his BAT, and his APPROACH is what disappointed me. I think, maybe, things have always come to him so easily that he just thought "contact" meant he could HIT ML stuff successfully. He SAYS he recognizes he chased too much and needs to refine his approach.  He seems to be smart enough to learn and adapt. 

He's NOT the future SS of the Twins. But he's got the ability to get better, and just maintain the spot until Culpepper is ready. Lee could end up as the 3B, with Lewis taking over 1B for years to come, OR, take over 2B with Keaschall moving to 1B as a multi talented player there, OR, he could become a great super utility player who can play all 4 INF spots and be in the lineup almost daily.

For a top draftee, and top prospect, that still isn't a poor outcome. Especially when you ALSO consider what Martin was SUPPOSED to be when drafted, in a similar position. NOW, Martin is suddenly a really good looking defensive LF with a batting profile that is starting to resemble his draft status. The results are still TBD. 

I KNOW it sounds like a crutch, but injuries to Buxton and Lewis have really crippled the Twins at times. Perhaps not recognizing Wallner's ability to adapt and be streaky has been a mistake. (I think so).

CRAP HAPPENS, and I hate to say that. But it's true. A lot of players never even reach MLB for one reason or another. Goodness knows the Twins have seen enough of injuries to top prospects to feel they are cursed somehow. But how better would the lineup be the last 3 years with a healthy Buxton and Lewis? 

I DON'T like the current roster construction, and I've been strong on that in regard to Falvey and Tom, and offering up different options that would be way smarter and NOT expensive.  But Buxton, Lewis, Wallner, Jeffers, Keaschall, and even Lee is a really good starting point if we can FINALLY have them all healthy and progressing and productive at once.

[KirbyDome89]

“What I think it says is that we’ve had a run of guys that we’ve identified in the draft, near the top,” Falvey said. “No one is going to bat 1.000 in the draft—we all know that—but we have a number of picks who have found a way to contribute at the big-league level. It speaks a lot to our development process, too.”

Salt in the wound for anybody that actually follows this club. I wish more of Twins media gave a **** and actually pressed these clowns.

[old nurse]

16 hours ago, weitz41 said:

I'd like to say I think this FO has done very well with the draft.

For every 1st and 2nd round pick that makes it to MLB and is a "contributor" there's 3-4 that don't. 

No, they haven't hit any home runs, but lots of single and doubles. But better to hit a home run with guys on base then a solo shot.

Just ask Wallner about that...

Going to avoid the political posts. My sarcasm, well-meaning or not, will only get me in trouble with both sides.

Narrow lanes here, high wires are wider

[JD-TWINS]

On 1/15/2026 at 9:35 AM, Cory Engelhardt said:

I still just can't see Larnach back. Or Wallner I guess. But I don't see the fit for carrying both on opening day with how many other options, especially better defensive options, are ready to be up by May or June if nothing else. I know we list him at DH, but I still think Josh Bell as the primary dh makes a lot of sense with better defenders covering defense at 1B. I could be wrong.

Not saying they will get much in trade for Larnch. I just don't see the fit here.

Is the “better option” at 1B still an unsigned free agent? I can’t imagine Clemens or Wannaker being better in sum than having Bell at 1B. I think that’s Bell’s spot on paper and that Larnach is a lock v. RH pitching at DH.

Would anyone trade for a .202 hitter that’s slow on defense and strikes out 35% of the time with 22 HR’s (41 XBH) and only 40 RBI? Not being nasty or contrary - just wondering who trades anything above an A ball player for those results?

The Team needs to get to the May/June call-ups with somebody else in the line-up. Seems Wallner & Larnach are given a last chance “to stick” the first third or more of this season. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, JD-TWINS said:

Is the “better option” at 1B still an unsigned free agent? I can’t imagine Clemens or Wannaker being better in sum than having Bell at 1B. I think that’s Bell’s spot on paper and that Larnach is a lock v. RH pitching at DH.

Would anyone trade for a .202 hitter that’s slow on defense and strikes out 35% of the time with 22 HR’s (41 XBH) and only 40 RBI? Not being nasty or contrary - just wondering who trades anything above an A ball player for those results?

The Team needs to get to the May/June call-ups with somebody else in the line-up. Seems Wallner & Larnach are given a last chance “to stick” the first third or more of this season. 

I'm not saying Clemens is the answer. But he did grade out well at 1B defensively last year. That's not something Bell has done. That's mostly what I'm getting at. But maybe Keaschall or Lee or someone else is the 1b defensively at some point? Who knows.

Wallner has real power, and looking at his 2023 and 2024 numbers shows there is a real hitter there. I do think he has to get back to that level of production to hold off the younger guys who are close though. But someone would give something real for him.

[dogman]

On 1/15/2026 at 8:35 AM, Cory Engelhardt said:

I still just can't see Larnach back. Or Wallner I guess. But I don't see the fit for carrying both on opening day with how many other options, especially better defensive options, are ready to be up by May or June if nothing else. I know we list him at DH, but I still think Josh Bell as the primary dh makes a lot of sense with better defenders covering defense at 1B. I could be wrong.

Not saying they will get much in trade for Larnch. I just don't see the fit here.