Arbitrary Thoughts: RHP Michael Tonkin

[Seth Stohs]

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

RHP Michael Tonkin  
Age on Opening Day 2026: 36 
Service Time: 5 years, 44 days.

2023 Salary: $750,000
2024 Salary: $1,000,000
2025 Salary: $1,000,000 
MLB Trade Rumor Estimate: $1.4 million

Background
A California native, the Twins drafted Michael Tonkin in the 30th round of the 2008 draft. His “claim to fame” at that point was being Jason Kubel’s brother-in-law. He has carved out a pretty solid career of his own to this point. He made his MLB debut with nine games in 2013. He pitched in 141 games (149 K in 146 1/3 innings) for the Twins from 2013 through 2018. 

In 2018, he pitched in Japan. He came back to the States in 2019 but pitched in a variety of cities and leagues. In 2019, he pitched for Long Island (Atlantic League), Reno (Diamondbacks) and Nashville (Brewers). Like most, he didn’t pitch in 2020. He returned to Long Island in 2021 but also pitched some for Tijuana in the Mexican League. He signed with the Braves in 2022 and pitched well for Triple-A Gwinnett. He was 5-2, had 16 saves, and dominated with 73 strikeouts and just 15 walks in 48 1/3 innings. He pitched in one game for Gwinnett in 2023 before making his return to the big leagues after five years out of the league. He pitched in 45 games for Atlanta and was 7-3 with a save in 80 innings.   

2024 was a transaction-filled season for Tonkin. He signed with the Mets in the offseason and pitched in three games before being DFAd. The Twins claimed him on April 9th. He gave up two runs over two innings in one game before the Twins DFAd him. The Mets claimed him and he pitched in back-to-back games against the Dodgers before they DFAd him again. The Yankees claimed him, and he made two appearances in April. That means that he pitched for four MLB teams in MLB games before the calendar turned to May. Fortunately, he was able to stick in The Bronx for a while. He gave up just two earned runs in MayHe gave up two earned runs in 13 appearances in June. He struggled in July and gave up runs in six of his 10 outings, but never more than two runs. In August, he pitched in seven games and gave up runs in four of them including three runs twice. The Yankees DFAd him near the end of August. The Twins were mid-collapse, so he pitched in 20 games for the Twins to end the season. Overall in 13 games for the Twins, he posted a 3.86 ERA. In 16 1/3 innings, he had seven walks and 22 strikeouts. Combined with his success with the Yankees, the Twins tendered him a contract for 2025, avoiding arbitration. 

2025 Season
Tonkin came to spring training and in March, he was diagnosed with a rotator cuff strain. He began a rehab assignment in late April but after just one game he was pulled off of the rehab assignment because of biceps tendinitis. He went on the 60-Day Injured List. A month later (early June), he returned to the Saints to continue his rehab. It wasn’t long before Tonkin came off of the IL and was DFAd. Unclaimed, he stayed with the Twins and continued pitching for the Saints. He began July with six games in which he went 8 1/3 innings and gave up no runs on one hit and two walks. He had 11 strikeouts. He was back. He made one more appearance in St. Paul before rejoining the big league club. Shortly after the trade deadline, he was thrown into more late-inning, high-leverage situations. He had a stretch of six games in mid-August in which he gave up no runs over 7 2/3 innings. In that stretch, he gave up no hits, walked three and struck out seven. It was a season of ups and downs. 

Twins 2025 Stats: 21 G, 24 IP, 20 H, 8 BB, 19 K, 4.88 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

Twins Depth at his Position (Right-Handed Relief Pitchers)
40-man roster: Travis Adams, David Festa, Thomas Hatch, Cody Laweryson, Pierson Ohl,  
Arbitration-Eligible: Cole Sands, Justin Topa, 
Triple-A: Marco Raya (40), Cory Lewis, Jarret Whorff, Matt Canterino, 
Double-A: Mike Paredes, Jacob Wosinski, Hunter Hoopes, John Stankiewicz, 

Summary: This is kind of a weird summary to write since an MLB bullpen will likely include eight relief pitchers, and one or two are left-handed, so there are options. The other thing to consider is Triple-A starters and young MLB guys could move to the bullpen and take a spot. So, this is certainly not a full list. Could David Festa and/or Zebby Matthews move to the bullpen? Could Connor Prielipp impress enough in spring training or early in the season to be considered for a bullpen job? The best story would be Matt Canterino being fully healthy and finally getting a 

Why the Twins Should Offer Him Arbitration
First and foremost, in today’s game, $1.4 million is not much money. While I can’t imagine anyone seeing Tonkin as a late-inning, high-leverage option at this point, Tonkin still has enough velocity and a solid sweeper when he is on. He can be a solid middle-innings innings eater who can also handle the stress of a tough situation and come back again. There is value in having a couple of veterans on a roster and in a bullpen. It may be even more important in what could be a difficult season in 2026. While the future may be for the 20 somethings, guys who throw harder and have a certain presence, having a guy who has been there and done that, seem ups and downs, and played in different environments around the world. Granted, you don’t necessarily pay a lot for those intangibles and experience, there is value in it. 

Why the Twins Should Non-Tender Him 
The Twins do have a lot of arms that could pitch in the big leagues in 2026. We saw several young pitchers make their debuts this year. Pitchers like Travis Adams, Pierson Ohl, and Cody Laweryson got their first taste of the big leagues in 2026. Depending on trade plans surrounding the current top starters, there could be enough starting pitchers that some couple be moved into the bullpen and get called up. Guys like Connor Prielipp and Marco Raya who had starts and innings and pitch limits could come up and pitch three innings twice a week or something. Could flamethrowers like Festa, Matthews, Bradley or Abel go the Varland Route and dominate out of the bullpen? With so many arms hopefully earning opportunities, it would be easy to say a guy like Tonkin could be non-tendered particularly if you don’t believe that player won’t be willing or able to share lessons learned and their experiences to help the young players. (There is unquantifiable value in that, no question!)  

Projection
Honestly, I think that the Twins should attempt to do with Tonkin what they did last year. It would appear that the Twins went to Tonkin and his representatives with a dollar value they were comfortable with. Last year that was $1 million. Maybe for 2026 that number can be $1 million to $1.15 million. It is enough that it’s worth the player taking, knowing if they’re non-tendered, they’re more likely to get a minor-league deal with nothing guaranteed. In addition, the Twins have used the tactic of signing a reliever each year to a deal maybe 25% over the league minimum. That way, the Twins can DFA him knowing that he isn’t likely to be claimed. They can get him to Triple-A and keep him pitching, ready to rejoin the big league club as needed. We’ve seen that in recent years with Jharel Cotton, Jay Jackson, and even Tonkin last year. 

If Tonkin isn’t willing to sign for the $1 million to $1.15 million offer, then I would non-tender him. I’d try to offer him a minor-league contract with a spring invitation, but he might get other offers. And, frankly, the Twins (and all other teams) will sign multiple pitchers to minor-league details that can fill a similar role.  

What do you think about Michael Tonkin, and his potential role in 2026? Consider his stats and your observations when watching him pitch, and his pitches, are there reasons they should keep him? Easy DFA? Work out some other agreement? What would you do? 

  

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[Dman]

I like Tonkin's confidence in his stuff and ability to attack, but the results seem pretty replaceable.  There are a lot of young arms to add for Rule V and the Twins should have enough money to find something better than what Tonkin brings

. I just don't see them bringing both Topa and Tonkin back one of them has to go and I think that will be Tonkin. It could go either way with Topa more expensive, but I think Topa's ground ball tendencies make him a safer bet.

I'd love Tonkin on a Minor league deal as someone they bring up as long term injuries happen, but other than that I don't see him coming back.

[The Great Hambino]

He'll turn 36 next season with declining ERA, FIP, and peripherals.  I don't see any reason to tie up a roster spot for him when the Erasmos and Kriskes of the world are a dime a dozen and readily available in a pinch.  I don't see Tonkin's value as meaningfully greater than the typical waiver wire fodder.  Whatever slightly-more-expensive, moderately-higher-quality reliever that inevitably gets brought in to fill out the roster this offseason can provide veteran presence in the bullpen

I suppose an MILB offer doesn't hurt anyone.  But I think it's time for more golf for Tonkin

[LewFordLives]

I vote no, but it's not the biggest decision they'll make this offseason. I'm sure they'll be bringing in several guys of the same caliber as Tonkin to battle for spots. If they bring back Tonkin, even on a minor league deal, and he wins a spot, it just means it's going to be a really long season.  

His results the last couple years haven't been anything worth writing home about and "rotator cuff strain" should be a red flag. Give someone new a chance to show what they got.

[LewFordLives]

By the way, I've been enjoying the "Arbitrary Thoughts" series from Twins Daily.

[DJL44]

There is no upside here. He's only going to decline until he's unpitchable. In that sense, he's just like the other veteran retreads they like to bring in rather than relying on their prospects. Unlike some 1-year free agents, he's not going to be worth anything at the trade deadline. They need to give most of their 2026 innings to pitchers who might be good in 2027. If there are still spots left they should find relievers among the leftovers that someone might want to acquire in July.

[Vanimal46]

Another easy no for me, but I will say something nice about Tonkin. He's made it longer in professional baseball than I ever imagined, so kudos to him. 

[bunsen82]

Dump him - we have no less than 10 legit prospects who need to be added to the 40 man.  They actually have value that can be used in a trade.  Those players in question would be Rosario, Mendez, Fedko.   Any of those 3 would bring back a better reliever than Tonkin.  

[IndianaTwin]

I would consider a split contract that pays on the scale of $1.4M for days on the MLB roster and an above-average rate for days on the minor league roster. If I'm understanding it correctly (and someone will correct me if I'm not), that doesn't tie up the 40-man spot, but keeps him as the known-quantity option for addition later.

If he has comfort with the organization, that might be the guarantee he needs. I'm not sure that he'd get a major league offer elsewhere, so the above-average minor league rate could be attractive.

[mikelink45]

My arbitrary thought is that we have a lot of players who should be replaced, but not all will be.  

[tony&rodney]

Michael has a rubber arm. Can he stay healthy? The expected performance does not project for him to have a 40 person spot. However, the Twins (every club really) could use some experienced hands in St. Paul. Tonkin could be back in the organization next season, but he doesn't get a 40 person slot this winter.

[purplesoldier4u]

The Twins, and seemingly the fans, seem to have a sweetheart bond to this guy. Let him go!

[DocBauer]

To be fair, he had a pretty solid 2023 and a better overall 2024. At times this past season he threw some solid innings. But at 36yo and the rotator cuff issue earlier in the year...which appears to have been minor...there just isn't a 40 man fit here.

As stated by others, there's young players with actual upside that need/should be protected. Additionally, there's bound to be a couple FA additions that are younger and have as much, or more upside like a Wisler, Thielbar, or Stewart type. Plus, possibly a couple of actual 40 man worthy additions. 

I'd offer him a MILB deal and see if he bites. He has as good of a chance to throw for the Twins at some point in 2026 as he would anywhere else. And he's more than familiar with the organization. 

But that's as far as I'd go. There's just too many other potential options that should be ahead of him.

[jmlease1]

I think you have to non-tender him and then see if there's something you want to work out. I don't hate him as a middle innings mentor, I guess and the difference between league minimum and what he'll command should be largely irrelevant. I just don't want him clogging up a guaranteed roster spot?

If we hadn't decimated our entire bullpen, I highly doubt we'd be having this conversation about Tonkin (he'd be a non-tender for sure), which leads me to think he should just be a non-tender period.

[Brandon]

I would keep him for a lower contract.  For Tonkin, he’s been here and there are so many openings in the pen. There is no better opportunity to stay on a roster then here….

[olerud]

I have no thoughts, he's a great big nothing burger!!

[PatPfund]

Non-tender; check in with him in January if both sides might be interested. (I'm guessing he'll be a late invite wherever he goes.)

[stringer bell]

How many veterans are needed to guide the team through the retooling? The bullpen could have a free agent plus Topa plus Tonkin. Is that enough? 

On it's face, my vote would be for non-tender. Tonkin is in his mid-thirties and is not a high-leverage guy. He also has veteran status and can't be sent back and forth to St. Paul without going through the DFA hamster wheel. The money for Tonkin's salary is negligible.

If having Tonkin on the staff helps the other guys in the 'pen, there is a case to keep him. I really don't see it and he's probably not going to be as good as he was in the last two years. 

Side note: it seems like a million years ago when I sat next to Tonkin at a minor league scrimmage in Spring Training the day after he was sent to the minors by the Twins. To his credit he made it back and logged a couple more years of service time. Good for him.

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Easy DFA imo. As has been said, types like him can be found at any given time. Minor league contract at most, which I'd welcome. 

[Western SD Fan]

These "Arbitrary Thoughts" articles are definitely better than the old Twins commercials: "Sorta Deep Thoughts".

[Doctor Wu]

Tonkin certainly doesn't inspire most of us, but as someone noted, he does have a "rubber arm" and can at least eat some innings. Can we do better? Of course. But I still have no idea if the front office will be dipping into the free agent pool, or able to do so, or not. I recall that when we lost Thielbar last winter, there wasn't much regret, but he had a very good season with the Cubs. No idea how some of these ageing relief pitcher will do, so I won't be horrified if we bring Tonkin back. But I'd sure like to give first dibs to some of the younger prospects in the system. 

[bean5302]

Probably not an investment I'd make. I don't think he's likely to be healthy going forward and his results in 2024 didn't carry forward. I don't see a reason to sign a guaranteed contract for -0.1 fWAR.

[High heat]

Tonkin has no upside at this point, he has show over multiple season that he can be a reliable MLB reliever.  Why not cut him save the 40 man spot and sign him or someone similar to minor league deal.  

[Sjoski]

Q: WHO AM I

I’m gray and old

I make you shiver,

I keep coming back.

Who am I?

Answer: Mike Tonkin… or a Minnesota winter.

[D.C Twins]

Sure... sign him up... he will actually fit in perfectly with what the 2026 Twins will be! 

(confirming that we can be in the draft lottery two years in a row right?!)

[killertwinfan]

A salary range of $1.1-1.4m seems reasonable for Tonkin. If $300k becomes a contention for the FO is just another reason to not like this organization.  I fully expect both parties to come to an agreement. 

[Otaknam]

Not excited about Tonkin, Genesis Cabrera, Hatch, or many other scrap heap bullpen arm. 

[Jacksson]

Jettison Tonkin and the other scrapheap arms on the 40 by non-tendering them to enable the team to protect our own prospects and to leave room to add talent through the Rule 5 draft.  Offer him and others  a minor league contract with a Spring Training invite.

[bean5302]

On 10/11/2025 at 6:54 AM, killertwinfan said:

A salary range of $1.1-1.4m seems reasonable for Tonkin. If $300k becomes a contention for the FO is just another reason to not like this organization.  I fully expect both parties to come to an agreement. 

He delivered negative value and was hurt most of the season. Why spend $300k when you don't need to? I'm pretty sure Tonkin will take a guaranteed deal anywhere, and I'm also thinking he probably has to accept a MiLB deal with an invite next year.

[killertwinfan]

I think my comment that both parties will work a deal out implies it won’t take the extra $300k to get a deal done. Whatever he is worth he will get from us because we have no bullpen right now and if we do it will be very young.