Twins Finally Win... the Lottery Odds

[Jamie Cameron]

Mercifully, the Minnesota Twins' forlorn 2025 season has come to an end. In losing to the Phillies on the final day of the season (thanks, Max Kepler ), the Twins secured the second-highest odds at landing the number one overall pick. Let’s unpack their draft lottery circumstances.

What are the Odds?
The Twins finished with the second-worst record in baseball among teams eligible for the draft lottery. As such, they’ll have a 22.27% chance of landing the top overall pick. The White Sox are in poll position (27.73%) with the Pirates next after Minnesota (16.81%).

There are three teams ineligible for the lottery this season (Rockies, Nationals, Angels). As a reminder, large market or revenue-paying teams (like the Nationals and Angels) are ineligible to receive a lottery pick if they had a lottery pick last year. Revenue-receiving teams (like the Rockies) are ineligible to receive a lottery pick if they had a lottery pick the last two years.

Where Could the Twins Pick?
There’s a finite range of outcomes now. If a team with a bottom-six record is displaced from a lottery pick, they immediately take the first available pick outside the lottery spots (7th overall). The Twins can pick as high as first overall and as low as eighth, in the unlikely scenario that both they and the White Sox are displaced from a lottery pick.

What About the Second Round, and Beyond?
Remember, the lottery only dictates the first six picks. From the second round on, all teams pick in order of record. As such, outside of any compensation picks, the Twins will pick fourth in each round (after the Rockies, White Sox, and Nationals).

When is the Draft Lottery?
The draft lottery occurs in December at the Winter Meetings every year. For 2026, that will put it in the week of December 8th, but the exact date and time have not been announced yet. 

How Does it Work?
Long story short, via ping pong balls. Each non-postseason team is given a number of four-digit combinations based on its regular-season record. The worse the record, the more combinations you have. A series of four-digit ping pong balls is drawn from a lottery machine. The number drawn corresponds to a team, starting with the first overall pick, and finishing with the sixth overall pick. The remaining non-postseason teams then pick in reverse order of record from picks 7-18.

What’s at Stake?
A lot, both in talent capital and financial capital. This year’s class has a consensus number one prospect (currently), Roch Cholowsky , a shortstop from UCLA. Additionally, the slot value differentials are more disparate at the top of the draft. The slot value for the first pick in 2025 ($11,075,900) is $4,262,300 more than the slot for the eighth overall pick ($6,813,800). That difference is around the value of the 20th overall pick in 2025. It’s enormous. While the Twins may not end up with the first overall pick, maintaining a top-three selection would be a boon to their bonus pool. I’ve simulated the draft lottery ~150 times so far, and the Twins have managed a top-three selection 56% of the time.

What About Other Picks and Money?
The Twins will also have a Comp B pick in 2026 (picks 66-74 in 2025). That will carry a value of somewhere between $1.1 million and $1.4 million. Overall, if the Twins maintain a top-three pick, their bonus pool should be somewhere in the $15-16 million range, giving them one of the highest pools in the class.

Want to read up on some candidates to keep in mind for their first selection in 2026? We’ll preview some of the top prep and college names in the coming weeks at Twins Daily.

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[Whitey333]

Does it really matter where the Twins pick?  They will probably screw that up too.  It will probably be one of many can't miss picks the Twins have had that miss.  So tired of the hope and hype that is the Twins philosophy

[Hubie29]

Oh good. Another shortstop. 

[rv78]

Dang it Whitey, you beat me to it. With Falvey in charge it doesn't matter. He'll pick a player that will shine in the minors and be a dull turd in the majors.

[Mahoning]

Drafts are always chancy. But there is reason to wonder about the Twins' player development. What stars have they produced on the last decade or so? Johann Duran. And, roughly a thousand years ago, Byron Buxton. One star per decade is not going to get the job done. I don't think money has much to do with it.

[killertwinfan]

If we get the first pick, would we actually pay the best player?  Typically we haven’t. 

[shimrod]

10 minutes ago, killertwinfan said:

If we get the first pick, would we actually pay the best player?  Typically we haven’t. 

Twins FO is much too smart to do that. 

[Nashvilletwin]

19 minutes ago, Mahoning said:

Drafts are always chancy. But there is reason to wonder about the Twins' player development. What stars have they produced on the last decade or so? Johann Duran. And, roughly a thousand years ago, Byron Buxton. One star per decade is not going to get the job done. I don't think money has much to do with it.

In terms of position players only, Buxton was drafted #2 in 2012 and went through the Twins system making two All Star teams in 2022 and 2025. 

Since 2014, the Twins have drafted/initially signed and developed only one All Star player from minor league infancy - Luis Arraez signed in 2014 and a Twins All Star in 2022. Of course, he was selected to two additional All Star teams in both 2023 and 2024 - just with other clubs.

Oh, Brent Rooker was another All Star drafted (35th overall in 2017) and developed by the Twins making his major league debut in 2020.  He, of course, has made two All Star teams - with the A’s.

So, yes, since 2015 - the last decade - the Twins have not drafted/initially signed a position player who has represented the Twins in an All Star game.  Jeffers, drafted in 2016, is probably the closest they’ve come.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

If the mindset of the Twins players is similar to the mindset the 6 previous comments posted here, then no wonder the Twins  are losers. You become what you think about. Self full filling prophesies have an actual psychological basis.

[bunsen82]

We had the 4th worst record. Odds are we end up with a pick as good as our record or better.  Odds are 80% or higher we end with a top 5 pick which was the goal of the tank. We want another Walker Jenkins type prospect.

[SaberNerd]

Chances for the Twins to have each pick rounded:

1: 22.3%, 2: 20.8%, 3: 18.4%, 4: 14.8%, 5: 10.6%, 6: 6.7%, 7: 6.2%, 8: 0.2%

[GNess]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

In terms of position players only, Buxton was drafted #2 in 2012 and went through the Twins system making two All Star teams in 2022 and 2025. 

Since 2014, the Twins have drafted/initially signed and developed only one All Star player from minor league infancy - Luis Arraez signed in 2014 and a Twins All Star in 2022. Of course, he was selected to two additional All Star teams in both 2023 and 2024 - just with other clubs.

Oh, Brent Rooker was another All Star drafted (35th overall in 2017) and developed by the Twins making his major league debut in 2020.  He, of course, has made two All Star teams - with the A’s.

So, yes, since 2015 - the last decade - the Twins have not drafted/initially signed a position player who has represented the Twins in an All Star game.  Jeffers, drafted in 2016, is probably the closest they’ve come.

Great info about Twins draft and develop results - but kind of depressing.

[bunsen82]

4 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Does it really matter where the Twins pick?  They will probably screw that up too.  It will probably be one of many can't miss picks the Twins have had that miss.  So tired of the hope and hype that is the Twins philosophy

If you think they are just going to screw it up then why do you stay a fan? Seems pointless unless a masochist. Everything in baseball is odds. We need to find ways to increase our odds.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

This article was awesome Jaime! Thanks!

Also, reading the comments, I feel like there should be a list of comments someone can easily go to and cut/paste to be ready to add to any twins related article ever. So many complaint replies that are generic enough here that work to complain on any article. Maybe that can be the focus of a randball Stu article sometime, generic cut/paste comments that work for any twins related article ever 

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, SaberNerd said:

Chances for the Twins to have each pick rounded:

1: 22.3%, 2: 20.8%, 3: 18.4%, 4: 14.8%, 5: 10.6%, 6: 6.7%, 7: 6.2%, 8: 0.2%

76.3% chance we have a top 4 pick.  Or the same or better pick then our record.  Here’s to hoping.

[Permanent Twins Fan]

6 hours ago, Brandon said:

76.3% chance we have a top 4 pick.  Or the same or better pick then our record.  Here’s to hoping.

Knowing the Twins, they will probably end up picking 8th anyway, but I am looking forward to the draft lottery, and hoping they manage a top 3 pick if only for financial reasons with added slot value that comes with a top pick

[GNXman]

Twins drafts have been terrible these last 10 years. They’ve wasted top picks it seems every year. Just like the Vikings, you cannot whiff on first round picks year after year. It just kills your chances for success.

[gman]

7 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Does it really matter where the Twins pick?  They will probably screw that up too.  It will probably be one of many can't miss picks the Twins have had that miss.  So tired of the hope and hype that is the Twins philosophy

Can't blame this one on Rocco.

[gman]

7 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

Oh good. Another shortstop. 

They got another baseball season for that to change.

[gman]

6 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

If the mindset of the Twins players is similar to the mindset the 6 previous comments posted here, then no wonder the Twins  are losers. You become what you think about. Self full filling prophesies have an actual psychological basis.

I've dreamed of being a billionaire. There goes that hypothesis.

[Dman]

The worst punishment MLB could give the Twins would be giving them the 1st round pick forcing them to spend the most money in the draft.  Falling outside the top 5 would be pretty disappointing. Still they will get to pick top 4 the rest of the way.  

If they are top 3 it is going to be hard not to go with another shortstop as things stand right now the top 4 picks could be shortstops.

don't care where they pick as long as they get s difference making type player when they pick.   They should be in a good spot to do that.

[Permanent Twins Fan]

4 hours ago, gman said:

Can't blame this one on Rocco.

[rdehring]

Had an interesting thought while reading the comments.  Maybe someone at TD could do a piece about it.

Was wondering what percentage of players chosen in the first round actually make it.  And maybe even break that down to separate discussions of high school kids or college 21 year-old picks.

Would think that making it also needs some examination.  Maybe broken down to being in the major leagues more than 2 or 3 years, being a starter and a third classification could be being chosen as an all-star. 

When talking about Twins picks never making it, have a feeling that is not all that uncommon.  Especially when choosing high school kids.  Gotta agree however, the Twins have chosen some real clunkers over the years.  Seth may remember the name of that big first baseman they took some years ago, Henry something.  He lasted what, three years in the minors?  Then there was the rapidly rising shortstop from SoCal maybe what, six or seven years ago?  And who was the outfielder, I believe from Washington State, taken high a few years before Morneau?

[TwinsBagOverHead]

I wonder if some of the draft woes stem from the Pohlads, in their cost cutting moves, cutting a lot of scout positions. I have no proof, but it seems like every draft ends with the outlets who rank amateur players praising the twins draft and questioning the moves of other teams because "we had this player ranked higher". I could easily see the cheapskate Pohlads gutting their amateur scouting dept because "the media is already scouting these players" and "all we have to do is shell out a few bucks for trial subscriptions to baseball America, flo baseball, prep baseball report, and perfect game USA. Those cheap asses probably claim they're "not satisfied" to get their $20 back too. 

Also, everyone complaining about shortstops... You realize 75%+ draft "shortstops" move to a different position, right? It's just a very demanding position that usually is filled by the best athlete on the team. Don't be dumb.

 

FTP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[twinstalker]

On 10/4/2025 at 7:21 AM, Hubie29 said:

Oh good. Another shortstop. 

Given that we don't really have one, I'm not sure what your beef is in this statement.  Now, they just wasted a 1st rd pick on somebody playing SS, so if you'd gone that direction, I would understand.

[tony&rodney]

Hopeful the Twins pick #1-1 and that the player they pick is far better than expected. Maybe Roch Cholowsky is our starting shortstop in 2027. 

[Brandon]

When do we find out the draft order?  I guess at the winter meetings?

[Mike Sixel]

On 10/5/2025 at 8:19 AM, rdehring said:

Had an interesting thought while reading the comments.  Maybe someone at TD could do a piece about it.

Was wondering what percentage of players chosen in the first round actually make it.  And maybe even break that down to separate discussions of high school kids or college 21 year-old picks.

Would think that making it also needs some examination.  Maybe broken down to being in the major leagues more than 2 or 3 years, being a starter and a third classification could be being chosen as an all-star. 

When talking about Twins picks never making it, have a feeling that is not all that uncommon.  Especially when choosing high school kids.  Gotta agree however, the Twins have chosen some real clunkers over the years.  Seth may remember the name of that big first baseman they took some years ago, Henry something.  He lasted what, three years in the minors?  Then there was the rapidly rising shortstop from SoCal maybe what, six or seven years ago?  And who was the outfielder, I believe from Washington State, taken high a few years before Morneau?

This data is on the web already.

[ashbury]

43 minutes ago, Brandon said:

When do we find out the draft order?  I guess at the winter meetings?

That was literally in the article.

 

When is the Draft Lottery?
The draft lottery occurs in December at the Winter Meetings every year. For 2026, that will put it in the week of December 8th, but the exact date and time have not been announced yet. 

[Hubie29]

14 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Given that we don't really have one, I'm not sure what your beef is in this statement.  Now, they just wasted a 1st rd pick on somebody playing SS, so if you'd gone that direction, I would understand.

Lee, Miller, Cavaco, Gordon, Michael, etc. etc. Lewis just ok, jury still out on Houston and Culpepper. Could have had some franchise players if gone another route. But with our draft history prob unlikely.