Roster Trimming

[stringer bell]

I'm probably starting this thread a day early, but it's a lot easier going from the bottom of the roster and removing players to project who will be fighting for roster spots in March in Fort Myers. I hope there will be a robust discussion of who stays and who is shown the door.

Here is the current 40-man roster plus 60-day IL: Pitchers--Abel, Adams, Bradley, Cabrera, Festa, Funderburk, Hatch, Laweryson, López, Matthews, Misiewicz, Ober, Ohl, Raya, Ryan, Sands, Tonkin, Topa, Woods Richardson. Catchers--Gasper, Jeffers, Pereda, Vázquez. Infielders--Clemens, Fitzgerald, Julien, Keaschall, Lee, Lewis, Miranda. Outfielders--Buxton, Keirsey Jr., Larnach, Martin, McCusker, Outman, Roden, Rodriguez, Wallner.

Here are the players I predict the Twins will cut loose: Cabrera (FA), Hatch (DFA), Misiewicz (non-tender), Tonkin (non-tender), Topa (declined option-FA), Gasper (DFA), Vázquez (FA), Fitzgerald (DFA),  Miranda (non-tender), Keirsey Jr. (DFA), Larnach (non-tender), McCusker (DFA), Outman (DFA).

That is about as many as the Twins traded away at the deadline and would turn over well more than half of the roster. Add in a couple trades and it will be a new team for whoever is managing the Twins in 2026.

Some comments: Edouard Julien makes the cut IMHO because he has hit pretty well in September and he looks like a possible option to partially fill the first base hole. Gasper,  Keirsey Jr. and McCusker were all  promoted as old rookies and haven't shown they can hit major league pitching, Topa and Tonkin are older with pretty long injury histories and little upside. Larnach will get more expensive and has put up .1 WAR in a healthy full season. The Twins twins, Outman and Fitzgerald, are intriguing offensively only because of home runs. Outman is a strikeout machine and I doubt Fitzgerald can sustain anything close to a 8% home run rate. Fitzgerald is the toughest call, but he turns 32 before the All-Star break.

If the Twins do perform radical surgery on the roster, it would be the biggest turnover in my memory, rivaled only by Calvin's selloff in 1982.

 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

I kinda think either or both of Outman and Fitzgerald could survive the first round of cuts. Outman as a recent trade acquisition (whether that sunk-cost logic is really valid or not) with some brief history of MLB success and defensive skill the org seems to value, and Fitzgerald as a backup SS, for which there isn't really a clear plan B at the moment.

I know it's good to do major roster cleanup right after the season, so you enter the offseason with a clear picture of where you're going to add, but if a player like one of these guys is in the team's plans tentatively, barring another roster move, it should be no issue to cut them later. The finer points of when teams choose to cut players are not always clear to me, though.

[jaimedude]

For me Gasper, Kiersey jr, McCusker, Fitzgerald, Tonkin, Hatch, Miranda are all easy drops from 40 man roster. All would go unclaimed on waivers. 

[Danchat]

Julien since being called back up has his .660 OPS (.242/.330) with 1 HR... yeah, it's a no from me combined with his poor defense and consistent bone-headed plays. This was his make-or-break season and he broke.  The rest seem reasonable, but I wouldn't be shocked if Outman stays on the roster for the sake of hubris.

[Riverbrian]

If they gave up Brock Stewart just to rent Outman for 2 months in a lost season... knowing he is out of options.  

That would be a little... umm... questionable. 

I gotta believe that Outman has a 40 and 26 man roster spot waiting for him. 

 

[Riverbrian]

I don't understand the willingness to let Larnach go.  

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I don't understand the willingness to let Larnach go.  

I mean I get it. As a MLB player he’s been pretty unimpressive.

However the Twins largely don’t field MLB players so on this team, he’s basically elite.

[SteveLV]

Vasquez is a FA, no?

[stringer bell]

37 minutes ago, SteveLV said:

Vasquez is a FA, no?

Yes. 

[Riverbrian]

10 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I mean I get it. As a MLB player he’s been pretty unimpressive.

However the Twins largely don’t field MLB players so on this team, he’s basically elite.

String is one of the most logical posters on this site. He has 13 players cleared off the 40 man. 

13! 5 bullpen and 8 position players.

13 is a lot. 13 players that will need to be replaced. 

Actually 13 is really 14. Since we don't have a full 40 man currently. We are already a player short with 38 on the 40 man and only 1 on the 60 day. 

So, 13 is really 14, If you trade a player... It's 15... if you trade 2 players... it's 16 spots to fill and so forth. 

16 is a lot! 

Do we have 16 players to protect from rule 5?  Do we have 10? Protecting 5 in a given year is a lot? 

Does anyone believe we will bring payroll back to 140 million? 

We have cleared a lot of money off the books so his Arb 2 money is not taxing the budget. 

We have a lot of space to fill... before you even consider Larnach... Lots of things to fix before you get to Larnach. 

And when you consider Larnach. 

He's a good hitter.

We will need some good hitters.  

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

String is one of the most logical posters on this site. He has 13 players cleared off the 40 man. 

13! 5 bullpen and 8 position players.

13 is a lot. 13 players that will need to be replaced. 

Actually 13 is really 14. Since we don't have a full 40 man currently. We are already a player short with 38 on the 40 man and only 1 on the 60 day. 

So, 13 is really 14, If you trade a player... It's 15... if you trade 2 players... it's 16 spots to fill and so forth. 

16 is a lot! 

Do we have 16 players to protect from rule 5?  Do we have 10? Protecting 5 in a given year is a lot? 

Does anyone believe we will bring payroll back to 140 million? 

We have cleared a lot of money off the books so his Arb 2 money is not taxing the budget. 

We have a lot of space to fill... before you even consider Larnach... Lots of things to fix before you get to Larnach. 

And when you consider Larnach. 

He's a good hitter.

We will need some good hitters.  

I'm not disagreeing at all. The gist of my post is that this team is so bereft of talent, players much much worse than Larnach will be retained.

But Stringer was already being polite only listing 13 spots. On a normal, decently stocked team, I only count 19 players the Twins would be foolish not to protect. 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm not disagreeing at all.

My post was in support of your post.  

The only logic with Larnach in my mind... is keep him or trade him. DFA wouldn't be a consideration in my mind.

They will probably have to trade an outfielder when you consider the number of outfield considerations that they have and we have rather large holes in the bullpen to fill along with 1B and someone else who can play SS.  

I have no idea what his trade value is and won't pretend to.

If his trade value is non-existent then let him hit the ball for us but just letting him go when he has another year just doesn't make any sense to me at all.

I don't like how the Twins have handled him thus far. He finally got to face some left handed pitching this year... It's two years too late but like I've stated many times in my many posts on the subject. Taking a hit against left handers is OK with hope of improvement with more exposure.

In the meantime, that dent against left handers is going to drag overall stats down and that happened this year... and it's OK to absorb that dent for overall development to try and lessen the dent in the future.  

He is still an above average hitter against right handed pitchers who we will face 75% of the time. I'd give him another year of facing both hands. By the trade deadline... the team can look for a right handed hitting handcuff if necessary.       

In the end... I would be happy to keep him on my roster. He wouldn't be handed anything,  He doesn't have to play 6 out of 6 games. Competition for playing time would be in place on my roster. As for right now... He's a good (not Juan Soto) hitter on a team that needs good hitters.    

[tony&rodney]

Uncertainty surrounds the organization from top to bottom. One can spend forever thinking of various permutations of a future roster and miss on more than half of the names on an Opening Day list next season.

Speaking purely for myself, I have no idea what direction the Pohlads face. Will they have a firm budget? A beginning figure of $75M doesn't feel too low and high number of $125M might be possible. My best guess today is something near $100M.

Falvey has ideas of his preferred  roster and style of play in baseball. We have seen his work since 2016. Will he cling to those ideals or is he capable of change? The last few years the Twins stood pat believing their basic roster would be good enough to compete for a playoff spot. The purge in July seemed to portend a shift, but a few recent comments by Falvey suggested the Twins now have the pieces in place. Does anyone have any idea which direction this will go?

Rocco Baldelli came up in baseball as a player whose speed, defensive skills, and power along with a strong adherence to fundamental play made him a young athlete to watch. Injuries decimated his career. His managerial style was in juxtaposition with his own game. The use of analytics appeared to rule many of his decisions. This always seemed odd to me and it felt like RB was merely a good foot soldier. How could that even be true? 

Finally, we get to the players and it is hard to watch the younger, more inexperienced players seemingly looking over their shoulder. Baseball is tough and if one feels a lack of confidence from above it breeds within as well to some extent. The way that Austin Martin finished the season was almost a poster of a player who decided that every play was his decision and his alone. Mistakes were made but the positive clearly outweighed the blunders. The fit of individuals within the roster feels awkward. Then again, there is the reality of physical talent  and ability to play a fielding position adequately.

Would anyone be surprised if half of yesterday's active roster did not return? There will be plenty of room for players on the 40 person roster. Hopefully somebody within the organization has a plan that is not the same as previous ones.

[Mike Sixel]

16 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I don't understand the willingness to let Larnach go.  

Bad D, bad baserunning, exactly league average hitting, for $5 million dollars........why would they do that? He's pretty much the definition of replacement level. I just don't know why a team with a limited budget would keep him when they have Outman, Roden, Martin, Buxton, Wallner, Gonzalez, Rodriguez, and Jenkins. They can sign a guy like him for less money if they really want to. I'm guessing Outman and Roden are on the 26 man until May of next year (longer if they somehow start hitting). 

I agree with all the OP names, other than Outman (yuck, but they traded for him). 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm not disagreeing at all. The gist of my post is that this team is so bereft of talent, players much much worse than Larnach will be retained.

But Stringer was already being polite only listing 13 spots. On a normal, decently stocked team, I only count 19 players the Twins would be foolish not to protect. 

19......ugh.

[LakesPibble]

We keep Julien because we don't have anything better, not because he's good.  Same with Brooks Lee.  Same with Lewis unless someone would give us something for him.

It's not that they're good players, it's that we don't have better players.

This is also why I don't care where we draft.  The current regime has not proven they can identify or develop talent at the major league level.

The jury is out on Keaschall.  He seems solid, but small sample size.  Otherwise...  Guys still in the minors that we have high hopes for, and guys like Julien, Lee, etc.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Bad D, bad baserunning, exactly league average hitting, for $5 million dollars........why would they do that? He's pretty much the definition of replacement level. I just don't know why a team with a limited budget would keep him when they have Outman, Roden, Martin, Buxton, Wallner, Gonzalez, Rodriguez, and Jenkins. They can sign a guy like him for less money if they really want to. I'm guessing Outman and Roden are on the 26 man until May of next year (longer if they somehow start hitting). 

I agree with all the OP names, other than Outman (yuck, but they traded for him). 

Bad D... I disagree. His D isn't as good as others but Bad... nope... he is able to catch fly balls. Like you said... It's a dial... not a switch besides DH is always sitting there for use. 

Baserunning sure seems to have improved team wide following a simple declaration from the manager to go for it so I won't hold that against Trevor. 

Exactly league average hitting... Well... His OPS is going to come down when lefties are added to the repertoire. Lefties should have been part of the repertoire years prior. I'll show patience in that department and if he can get that LH OPS up to .650 his league average OPS will no longer be league average. 

5 million and a limited budget. Budget isn't limited at this point. 5 million isn't a concern like it was when we were already running into a wall at 140 million. He is potentially back the year after and then you can make a harder decision on 8 or 9 million. 

All of the potential options. They will still be available. 

We are going to disagree on this one. We got a ways to go here... you don't start by DFA'ing players that are productive when there are many unproductive players that need to go first. 

 

[SteveLV]

I am neutral on Larnach. We certainly have worse players on our roster.  But will the Twins FO pay $5-6M for him?  I doubt it.

If you could convert him to a bullpen piece or a young prospect, sure.

But I have zero problem with Larnach on the team next year if they are willing to pay him.  Not excited, but he is competent at least.

[Mike Sixel]

41 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Bad D... I disagree. His D isn't as good as others but Bad... nope... he is able to catch fly balls. Like you said... It's a dial... not a switch besides DH is always sitting there for use. 

Baserunning sure seems to have improved team wide following a simple declaration from the manager to go for it so I won't hold that against Trevor. 

Exactly league average hitting... Well... His OPS is going to come down when lefties are added to the repertoire. Lefties should have been part of the repertoire years prior. I'll show patience in that department and if he can get that LH OPS up to .650 his league average OPS will no longer be league average. 

5 million and a limited budget. Budget isn't limited at this point. 5 million isn't a concern like it was when we were already running into a wall at 140 million. He is potentially back the year after and then you can make a harder decision on 8 or 9 million. 

All of the potential options. They will still be available. 

We are going to disagree on this one. We got a ways to go here... you don't start by DFA'ing players that are productive when there are many unproductive players that need to go first. 

 

In five partial MLB seasons, he has one over 0.7 fWAR. One (he has really only been full time the last two years). This year he put up 0.2 fWAR. I can't see why they'd pay him to to do that when they have others available. 

We agree on a lot, especially not letting him play against lefties before....but we definitely disagree here. They aren't winning squat with him a regular, IMO. 

[chpettit19]

I think Outman is safe. While I don't think the FO is as arrogant as others seem to think, I also don't think they're dropping him 2 months after trading a controllable asset for him. Stewart wasn't worth much, but I can't imagine them dropping Outman this quickly after that trade.

I think Fitzgerald has a decent chance of sticking around. League minimum bench guy who can play SS seems like a good fit on this roster since I don't expect them to spend any real money. They don't have any other glove that can cover SS and not need everyday time. You're going to play Lee everyday while he's "the guy" there. If/when you call up Culpepper it's to play every day. I think Fitzgerald showed enough to be their bench infielder for league minimum to start the year.

Oddly, the selloff may actually "help" (is it really a positive for him to be stuck on this roster?) Larnach stick around. It will come down to what the payroll situation really is. He's not worth what his price will be in arbitration, but they also have so little talent they may keep him around. From what Gleeman has said, it sounds like he has no trade value and nobody wanted him at the deadline. Financially speaking, Larnach will want to stick around. It's his best bet at making 5+ mil next year. But in pure baseball/competitive terms, Larnach should want to be non-tendered so he can look for a role on a competing team even if it cost him a little dough.

This will be a very interesting offseason. Not in a fun way where we're hoping for difference makers, but just in the sense that they could turn over nearly the whole 40-man roster from July 31 to opening day and it'd be pretty easy to justify almost all of it. So many open spots available for even halfway decent players.

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

In five partial MLB seasons, he has one over 0.7 fWAR. One (he has really only been full time the last two years). This year he put up 0.2 fWAR. I can't see why they'd pay him to to do that when they have others available. 

We agree on a lot, especially not letting him play against lefties before....but we definitely disagree here. They aren't winning squat with him a regular, IMO. 

I'm not much of WAR fan (Fangraphs or Baseball Reference) and I don't pay a lot of attention to it. I think WAR is over weighted by defensive metrics that are over weighted by small sample range stats. Max Kepler in 2022 with a 1.6 fWAR with a .666 OPS is enough for me to put it aside. 

Perfection is the enemy of good. Most of our players have sub level parts of their game. 

He also doesn't have to be a regular. He can compete for playing time with the army that is coming behind him.  

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm not much of WAR fan (Fangraphs or Baseball Reference) and I don't pay a lot of attention to it. I think WAR is over weighted by defensive metrics that are over weighted by small sample range stats. Max Kepler in 2022 with a 1.6 fWAR with a .666 OPS is enough for me to put it aside. 

Perfection is the enemy of good. Most of our players have sub level parts of their game. 

He also doesn't have to be a regular. He can compete for playing time with the army that is coming behind him.  

Martin outhit him, outran him, and out played him on D. I can't see keeping a $5mm guy around as a pinch hitter. That's the sticking point for me. He's not likely a starter next year, I'd rather that money go to a C or SS or 1B or 1-2 RPs. 

He's exactly the kind of guy you've railed against signing for the last three years. 

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Martin outhit him, outran him, and out played him on D. I can't see keeping a $5mm guy around as a pinch hitter. That's the sticking point for me. He's not likely a starter next year, I'd rather that money go to a C or SS or 1B or 1-2 RPs. 

He's exactly the kind of guy you've railed against signing for the last three years. 

Your sticking point is also my sticking point in reverse. If the Twins have pinch hitters on the roster next season... I'll lose my mind. You pour 13 players through the filter at all times... not 9. 

Martin playing 5 out of 6 is not going to hurt him. Outman playing 4 out of 6 or 3 out of 6 is not going to hurt him. Larnach playing 4 out of 6 is not going to hurt him. Wallner playing 5 out of 6 is not going to hurt him. 

The only outfielder that has EARNED 6 out 6 games playing time is Byron Buxton. The rest can compete with each other for playing time and I'm certainly not going to predict winners with up and down performance from year to year.

You pour 13 players through the filter not 9 because I'll guarantee you that not all 9 of your chosen 9 are going to make it through. Your odds of finding 9 major league talent level players improves by pouring 13 through instead of the bare minimum 9.

The front office has to stop pretending that they got this evaluation, forecasting thing nailed and therefore limiting the numbers going through the filter with focus on a select few.

It's way past time to let the players decide by performance.    

I've railed against the low value one year contract guys that won't be back the following year. He works out he's gone anyway. If he doesn't work out... he's gone anyway. That ain't Trevor yet. 

Plus... I'll admit that there is part of me that is reacting to the unfairness of the stupid approach they took with all of their left handers. I'd like to see that rectified to see what happens better late than never.  

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

22 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Your sticking point is also my sticking point in reverse. If the Twins have pinch hitters on the roster next season... I'll lose my mind. You pour 13 players through the filter at all times... not 9. 

Martin playing 5 out of 6 is not going to hurt him. Outman playing 4 out of 6 or 3 out of 6 is not going to hurt him. Larnach playing 4 out of 6 is not going to hurt him. Wallner playing 5 out of 6 is not going to hurt him. 

The only outfielder that has EARNED 6 out 6 games playing time is Byron Buxton. The rest can compete with each other for playing time and I'm certainly not going to predict winners with up and down performance from year to year.

You pour 13 players through the filter not 9 because I'll guarantee you that not all 9 of your chosen 9 are going to make it through. Your odds of finding 9 major league talent level players improves by pouring 13 through instead of the bare minimum 9.

The front office has to stop pretending that they got this evaluation, forecasting thing nailed and therefore limiting the numbers going through the filter with focus on a select few.

It's way past time to let the players decide by performance.    

I've railed against the low value one year contract guys that won't be back the following year. He works out he's gone anyway. If he doesn't work out... he's gone anyway. That ain't Trevor yet. 

Plus... I'll admit that there is part of me that is reacting to the unfairness of the stupid approach they took with all of their left handers. I'd like to see that rectified to see what happens better late than never.  

 

 

I am letting Trevor be judged by performance.....it's not good. (I agree with your last point). 

Larnach is 100% a PH next year, unless Wallner and Martin are gone. They are both better than him, by performance, and cheaper. I guess Larnach could be the starting DH?  I guess?

[jorgenswest]

The players probably all don’t get dropped at once. Enough will be dropped to protect those needed for rule 5. Maybe another gets dropped to allow a rule 5 pick up. There have been a few helpful pitchers in the previous two rule 5 drafts and the Twins draft early. After that players will get dropped to make room for DFAs from other acquisitions as spots are needed.

The 40 that matters more is the one at the start of spring training. I would keep Fitzgerald. He may lose his opening day spot to Culpepper but he stays for now. We will have a better chance of seeing Culpepper when he is ready by keeping Fitzgerald rather than signing a player like Kiner-Falefa. I would do the same with Outman as the back up centerfielder until Rodriguez or Jenkins or both arrive. I would rather go into spring with Outman as the back up at CF and Fitzgerald as the back up SS than pay veterans for that role. Those veterans will stick around too long.

I am also looking for two catchers better than Pereda for the start of spring training. If they have made the assessment his defense isn’t good enough they should probably include him in the early drops.

[Parfigliano]

On 9/28/2025 at 6:12 PM, Riverbrian said:

I don't understand the willingness to let Larnach go.  

My guess is money.

[tony&rodney]

Reading through the comments, there seems to be an expectation for more than 90 losses in 2026.

[4twinsJA]

How about trades, Lopez and Buxton are the only Twins players with contracts for next year. Could see FO trading both and maybe Ryan and Ober or anyone else with some trade value- Jeffers. Looks like it could be a complete rebuild. Will Twins be worse than White Sox next year?

[bunsen82]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Reading through the comments, there seems to be an expectation for more than 90 losses in 2026.

I think they will be .500 or better depending if they rebuild a quality bullpen.  

[DJL44]

I think they'll keep Topa. It will be hard to find a better reliever for $2M. They should dump Julien and Outman, there will be better talent available for nothing.