Roster Trimming

[jorgenswest]

Random first base thoughts…

I have been wondering about first base. The league wRC+ at 1B in 2025 was 109. In 2024 it was 107. Twenty years ago it was 115 to 120. Is that a significant drop? For a player it wouldn’t be. For MLB the sample is over 20000 first base plate appearances in a season. I think it is significant. 

Why? Is it enough that we don’t have a Pujols in the 1B pool? Maybe. Oh! The DH in the NL may be a factor. Taking out the NL and there is still a decline. From 2002 to 2025 the median is 111. All of the 2020s are 111 or below. Is defense becoming more valued at 1B and as a result the bats have declined? I don’t know.

Miranda had a wRC+ of 114 and 116 in his two seasons where he had very 400 plate appearances. Seems like he should have been that player in the middle of 1B play. I don’t know what happened this year. In those two seasons his xwOBA was 12 and 22 points below his wOBA suggesting there may have been some luck involved. The Twins must not have trusted those wRC+ numbers that were better than his actual contact. No reason to sign France if Miranda was that player.

Looking at xwOBA and wOBA differential this year both Clemens and Julien have xwOBAs much greater than their wOBA suggesting their quality of contact was better than the results. Clemens was 4th on the team at .344 behind Fitzgerald, Buxton and Martin. In the other direction Keaschall’s xwOBA of .329 was 34 points below his actual wOBA. The league xwOBA was .298. Keaschall was 10% above the league. Julien was 13% above. Clemens with the Twins was 15% above. I would be more confident if his great month was his last one. His xwOBA in September was .338.

In any case if a batter can hit 10% better than league average they are giving typical first base play. The Twins didn’t get that last year. They were 10% below. Going from 10% below to 10% above at this one position can make a difference. It doesn’t seem unreasonable to make that happen. Do they bet on anyone in the organization?

[SteveLV]

Get the huge kid from the Giants for either Lopez or Ryan.  Should be fixture for years.

[jorgenswest]

9 hours ago, SteveLV said:

Get the huge kid from the Giants for either Lopez or Ryan.  Should be fixture for years.

After his first look in the majors the Giants may be a little more willing to move him. Expect lots of home runs, strike outs and some rough play at 1B. He has 27 errors at first base in 1658 innings. For comparison Clemens has 2 errors in 1134 professional innings. He may be ready to be DH by midseason with some more time in AAA trying to cut down strike outs. They will have to bet on his glove moving towards average at 1B. He is very young. With enough work in the minors his defense may get there. The bat will get there.

[SteveLV]

This is an interesting article discussing Mr. Eldrdge at the tender age of 20 in the majors:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6655112/2025/09/23/bryce-eldridge-giants-overreaction/

Food for thought....

[jorgenswest]

3 hours ago, SteveLV said:

This is an interesting article discussing Mr. Eldrdge at the tender age of 20 in the majors:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6655112/2025/09/23/bryce-eldridge-giants-overreaction/

Food for thought....

Maybe his slow start makes him attainable. 

[Chembry]

2 hours ago, SteveLV said:

This is an interesting article discussing Mr. Eldrdge at the tender age of 20 in the majors:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6655112/2025/09/23/bryce-eldridge-giants-overreaction/

Food for thought....

Eldridge should certainly be in the discussion, especially since Devers is playing more 1B with 3B being locked down by Chapman.  But the Giants may not want to move Eldridge and relinquish Devers to mostly DH duties.  Beyond Eldridge, there isn't much else to get excited about in SF's minor league system.  Most of the Giants top prospects are AA or lower, so we would most likely ask for a reliever. 

But there are also other potential 1B trade targets whose clubs make more sense, like the Cubs.  The Cubs currently have Michael Bush, who is under team control through 2030 (I believe).  They have 2 prospects in Moises Ballesteros (C/1B) and Jonathon Long (1B) who would be worth a conversation.  I don't think the Cubs would part with both, but may be willing to part with one of them. Jonathon Long is interesting.  Here are some stats AAA for Eldridge, Ballesteros, and Long.  

Player	Age	Level	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Eldridge	20	AAA	66	286	253	63	13	0	18	63	28	88	.249	.322	.514	.836
Ballesteros	21	AAA	114	509	446	141	29	1	13	76	49	67	.316	.385	.473	.858
Long	23	AAA	140	607	514	157	23	3	20	91	79	116	.305	.404	.479	.883

 

As you can see, Eldridge will hit HRs, but K rate is very high (31% at AAA, MiLB career 27% K rate) and a high walk rate (10%).    On the other hand Long has a lower K rate (19%) and higher walk rate (13%), but won't hit as many HRs.  Ballesteros is more of a pure hitter who doesn't K as much (13%), still has a high walk rate (10%), hit for a high average in AAA, but doesn't project to have the power of the other two.  Ballesteros also has had success in a short MLB stint this year (.298 avg, 2 HR, 11 RBI, .868 OPS in 20g)  

Defensively, Long is better than Eldridge as it sits today.  Eldridge only started playing 1B in 2024, with his first year in pro baseball playing OF.  Eldridge has a very strong arm and was a 2 way player in high school.  Ballesteros is in between Long and Eldridge.  All three are below average runners.

There are many others players that could be targeted, including cost controlled MLB C/1B.  I just wanted to point out that there are other prospects that bring a similar value.  Personally, I would be happy with any of the 3 discussed.   

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Chembry said:

But there are also other potential 1B trade targets whose clubs make more sense, like the Cubs.  The Cubs currently have Michael Bush, who is under team control through 2030 (I believe).  They have 2 prospects in Moises Ballesteros (C/1B) and Jonathon Long (1B) who would be worth a conversation. 

Why are the future values of Ballesteros(45+) and Long(40) so underwhelming? Neither is ranked near the top 20 in MLB or Fangraphs. A top flight prospect and more is what my line would be for Ryan. Otherwise I keep him.
 

note: the FV comes from Fangraphs but those have been the more realistic. MLB pipeline will have a 55 in the mid 100s and that just isn’t possible. Not near that many prospects will make that kind of impact. An FV 55  is an above average regular. Take a look at the MLB Pipeline 50th prospect from 2011-2020. One player in those 10 years had a significant major league career. Willson Contreras was an FV55 and more than fulfilled that future value. Another guy had a good rookie season but was let go by his team after three years. Nick Gordon is third best. He had one season close to average.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Why are the future values of Ballesteros(45+) and Long(40) so underwhelming? Neither is ranked near the top 20 in MLB or Fangraphs. A top flight prospect and more is what my line would be for Ryan. Otherwise I keep him.
 

note: the FV comes from Fangraphs but those have been the more realistic. MLB pipeline will have a 55 in the mid 100s and that just isn’t possible. Not near that many prospects will make that kind of impact. An FV 55  is an above average regular. Take a look at the MLB Pipeline 50th prospect from 2011-2020. One player in those 10 years had a significant major league career. Willson Contreras was an FV55 and more than fulfilled that future value. Another guy had a good rookie season but was let go by his team after three years. Nick Gordon is third best. He had one season close to average.

Everyone will have their favorite sites for prospects. I like Fangraphs as much or more than others. The only Cubs guys I'm interested in are Kevin Alcantara (50-high risk) and Jaxon Wiggins (50). Maybe my preference for Wiggins is due to my love for Mark Harris' trilogy whose main character was Henry Wiggins (The Southpaw, Bang The Drum Slowly, and Ticket For A Seamstitch). Easily the best written baseball books ever; actual literature.

[Chembry]

20 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Why are the future values of Ballesteros(45+) and Long(40) so underwhelming? Neither is ranked near the top 20 in MLB or Fangraphs. A top flight prospect and more is what my line would be for Ryan. Otherwise I keep him.
 

note: the FV comes from Fangraphs but those have been the more realistic. MLB pipeline will have a 55 in the mid 100s and that just isn’t possible. Not near that many prospects will make that kind of impact. An FV 55  is an above average regular. Take a look at the MLB Pipeline 50th prospect from 2011-2020. One player in those 10 years had a significant major league career. Willson Contreras was an FV55 and more than fulfilled that future value. Another guy had a good rookie season but was let go by his team after three years. Nick Gordon is third best. He had one season close to average.

I agree, we should be shooting for multiple top prospects if we trade Ryan.  When I look at prospects, I look at MLB, Fangraphs, and Baseball America.  I compare scouting reports between sites and I watch a lot of baseball (both in person and streaming).  Personally, I have seen both Ballesteros and Long play.  

Ballesteros is rated #53 MLB (#2 org, 55), Fangraphs not rated (FV45), BA #32 MLB (#1  org, BA grade 50/medium).  MLB and BA grade him higher on his hit tool and say the same thing.  Advanced bat to ball skill and consistently hits the ball in the air with authority.  HR totals likely limited due to all field approach.  Fangraphs grades him lower in that regard and that’s where the difference is.  However, from 2023 until present, he has shown that advanced bat to ball skills reaching AAA at 20 and MLB at 21.  I watched a fair bit of him streaming and a few games in person.  His bat to ball skills are impressive.  I think his value is brought down by his catching grades.  He isn’t a great defensive catcher. 
 

Long was just named as the Cubs minor league player of the year.  He wasn’t a highly touted prospect and drafted in the 9th round.  Going into 2024, he wasn’t on anyone’s radar.  He isn’t rated in the top 100 of any list, but would be one to include in a package.  He is rated as #7 org (MLB, 50 grade), Fangraphs #9 org (pre 2025 season #17, FV 40+), BA #7 org (BA grade 45/high).  Again, Fangraphs doesn’t rate his hit tool as high.  Both MLB and BA have similar scouting reports in which Long has advanced bat to ball skills and plus raw power.  He works counts well and is selectively aggressive.  He doesn’t chase at a high rate as evidenced by his low K rate and high BB rate.  BA has the statement “he has the plate skills and power to profile long term at 1B.”  Same as with Ballesteros, I have seen him play a fair bit.  His pure power and bat to ball skills were just as, if not more impressive than Ballesteros.  He showed that off by hitting .340 avg/7HR/29 RBI/.983 OPS in 42g at AA in 2024 and continued that through 140g at AAA in 2025.  That sustained production deserves a look.  My guess is his value is somewhat brought down his run and arm grades.

 

Nevertheless, I was solely focusing on 1B prospects as compared to Eldridge.  Just saying we can get good value with other prospects as well.  As mentioned, Long wouldn’t be a headliner, but one to ask to be included with Alcantra, Wiggins, Ballesteros, etc…that is if we trade Ryan. Maybe we could get Long for Ober being evened out one way or another? 

My only issue with Eldridge is his K rate, but would be ecstatic if we got him.  But other than Eldridge, I am not sure who the Twins would ask for? Randy Rodriguez? Erik Miller? Some other RP? They have publicly stated their focus is pitching, so maybe they would be willing to part with Eldridge.
 

FWIW, there are other packages that would be very intriguing.  I am not closing the door on trading for a cost controlled MLB option either…fun to speculate about.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Chembry said:

FWIW, there are other packages that would be very intriguing.

Detroit is finding out that they could use a really good starting pitcher. They have a strong system. Is it possible that Detroit would part with Max Clark for Joe Ryan? While it seems unlikely the Tigers would agree with such a query, I'm hoping the Twins are poking every team to find opportunity.

[Chembry]

30 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Detroit is finding out that they could use a really good starting pitcher. They have a strong system. Is it possible that Detroit would part with Max Clark for Joe Ryan? While it seems unlikely the Tigers would agree with such a query, I'm hoping the Twins are poking every team to find opportunity.

Yes Detroit needs another good SP to compliment Skubal.  He will be gone after 2026, so they need another top of the rotation guy.…Mize is ok and Flaherty hasn’t been very good.  
 

Personally, I think Max Clark would be off limits, but worth asking.  Like you say, if we are going to trade Ryan, I hope we scour every opportunity to get the best value.  But I wouldn’t be jazzed about trading Ryan within the division.

[tony&rodney]

9 hours ago, Chembry said:

But I wouldn’t be jazzed about trading Ryan within the division.

Something to think about but it seems more important to get best value.

When people suggest keeping Ryan and extending him, my thoughts go to numbers and probability of the Twins actually signing Ryan for a 5/$150M extension. I wonder how many people think there is a chance to keep Ryan? And then there is the specter of injury. The Twins need to get this right.

So best value becomes most important and we deal with facing Ryan in games.

[SteveLV]

Boy, do you really want to be committed to paying Ryan $30M per year when he is 36?  I don't.....

[RpR]

Ryan is starting to look like another gopher ball Blyleven, but does he have the positive attributes Blyleven had?

[tony&rodney]

Joe Ryan is a really good pitcher. If anything he might be underrated because he has pitched for a team with a very porous defense and the offense is not to be trusted for runs on a consistent basis. 

The decision is whether to use him for the next two seasons and recover a draft pick when he leaves, sign him to a contract extension which will be rich, or trade him this offseason. Those are the three choices. The extension option seems the most unlikely. Ryan will not be signing for less than $120M at this time. I would suggest the Twins sign Joe Ryan to a 4/$120M contract that begins in 2027. I also don't believe Ryan will take that deal. Crochet signed a 6/$170M deal with escalators based on Cy Young votes.

Which option would people on Twins Daily choose?

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

Ryan is starting to look like another gopher ball Blyleven, but doe he have the positive attributes Blyleven had?

Is that the same Bert Blyleven who finished his career with 60 shutouts? The guy who had 23 shutouts in his age 33-38 seasons?

I'll take 5 of those please.

[jorgenswest]

I will take two seasons and a comp pick from Ryan. I would not move him until the deadline in 2027. I am not going to worry about injury or labor dispute. Teams get 6 years of control of a player. The last three are often better than the first three. Keep him through his prime and then move on. 

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I will take two seasons and a comp pick from Ryan. I would not move him until the deadline in 2027. I am not going to worry about injury or labor dispute. Teams get 6 years of control of a player. The last three are often better than the first three. Keep him through his prime and then move on. 

I appreciate your pick and reasoning. Joe Ryan is a good pitcher, no doubt.

Like I  said earlier there are three choices but really only two and none of us knows what the Twins will do.

[Chembry]

Great quote from Duran.  Not that we need another LH hitting outfielder, but Duran plays the game hard and the right way.  I became a fan after watching Clubhouse: A Year with the Boston Red Sox and after saying this, I will always root his success no matter where he goes.

[chpettit19]

9 hours ago, Chembry said:

Great quote from Duran.  Not that we need another LH hitting outfielder, but Duran plays the game hard and the right way.  I became a fan after watching Clubhouse: A Year with the Boston Red Sox and after saying this, I will always root his success no matter where he goes.

I find it hard to believe that's a real quote. I'm pretty positive Jarren Duran never said he was happy to be traded away in order to help his former team win.

As for him as a player, he certainly plays hard, but I'm not sure a 29-year-old is what the Twins need back in return for Ryan. The reason trading Ryan makes sense is because he's 29 and doesn't fit a realistic competitive timeline for the Twins. Duran wouldn't fit that timeline either. He's a good player, but I'd be disappointed if he's the headliner of a Ryan deal.

[tony&rodney]

19 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I find it hard to believe that's a real quote. I'm pretty positive Jarren Duran never said he was happy to be traded away in order to help his former team win.

As for him as a player, he certainly plays hard, but I'm not sure a 29-year-old is what the Twins need back in return for Ryan. The reason trading Ryan makes sense is because he's 29 and doesn't fit a realistic competitive timeline for the Twins. Duran wouldn't fit that timeline either. He's a good player, but I'd be disappointed if he's the headliner of a Ryan deal.

FWIW, the internet is awash with false news stories of all types. For the most part, I think, the Twins have avoided the worst. An example would be how Max Kepler was quoted as saying he would never play centerfield.

It is  nearly impossible to find actual news. One needs personal/reliable sources such as a cousin, friend, son, daughter, etc. who you know very well that sends you video clips they have recorded on their phone without comment. An example, protests in Portland a week ago which were mostly  4-10 senior citizens in lawn chairs during the week joined by a dozen younger people, often in costumes, on the weekend. The U.S. ranks low globally in reliable news sources. 

There will be a ton of rumors of who the Twins are DFA'ing or trading this offseason. It makes sense to play around with our thoughts on Twins Daily but be careful of giving credence to news stories until official announcements through press conferences or MLB transactions are given. Love the way Jarren Duran plays but the Twins are hoping for the next Duran. Would Max Clark be possible?

[Chembry]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I find it hard to believe that's a real quote. I'm pretty positive Jarren Duran never said he was happy to be traded away in order to help his former team win.

As for him as a player, he certainly plays hard, but I'm not sure a 29-year-old is what the Twins need back in return for Ryan. The reason trading Ryan makes sense is because he's 29 and doesn't fit a realistic competitive timeline for the Twins. Duran wouldn't fit that timeline either. He's a good player, but I'd be disappointed if he's the headliner of a Ryan deal.

Maybe he didn't say that and that is fine.   Nevertheless, that doesn't color my view of him and I will continue to be a fan.  Did you watch the Netflix documentary Clubhouse: A Year With the Red Sox?  If you didn't, you really should.  It's fantastic and really shows who Jarren Duran is as a person.  He is the type of teammate everyone wants. 

I agree with you and I don't want him to be traded to the Twins.  He is under team control through 2029, but I would rather go young. 

It was reported that the Red Sox offered 2 of Arias, Garcia, and Tolle plus a lower level prospect for Ryan at the deadline.  We don't know which 2 of their top 3 were offered.  It could have been any combination, but at the time the Twins wanted Duran included.  I would much rather see a package headlined by 2 of Tolle/Marcelo Mayer/Arias.  It was recently reported by SI that the only truly untouchables for BOS are Crochet and Anthony, so maybe Rafaela would be available?  I am not sold on the Password, Campbell, or Casas (only included because we need a 1B).   

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, Chembry said:

Maybe he didn't say that and that is fine.   Nevertheless, that doesn't color my view of him and I will continue to be a fan.  Did you watch the Netflix documentary Clubhouse: A Year With the Red Sox?  If you didn't, you really should.  It's fantastic and really shows who Jarren Duran is as a person.  He is the type of teammate everyone wants. 

I agree with you and I don't want him to be traded to the Twins.  He is under team control through 2029, but I would rather go young. 

It was reported that the Red Sox offered 2 of Arias, Garcia, and Tolle plus a lower level prospect for Ryan at the deadline.  We don't know which 2 of their top 3 were offered.  It could have been any combination, but at the time the Twins wanted Duran included.  I would much rather see a package headlined by 2 of Tolle/Marcelo Mayer/Arias.  I am not sold on the Password, Campbell, or Casas (only included because we need a 1B).   

Maybe Mayer and Rafaela? Would like Arias too. I had turned away from Boston because I'm not real high on Tolle, Campbell, Casas, or Garcia. Arias has promise but the Twins need a shortstop now if possible, although Brooks Lee will almost certainly get another shot in 2026.

[Chembry]

16 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Maybe Mayer and Rafaela? Would like Arias too. I had turned away from Boston because I'm not real high on Tolle, Campbell, Casas, or Garcia. Arias has promise but the Twins need a shortstop now if possible, although Brooks Lee will almost certainly get another shot in 2026.

That would be a nice package and I agree we need a SS.  I also think Lee will get another shot in 2026. 

Mayer profiles are more of 3B, but can also play SS.  If the Sox lose Bregman, not sure if they would be willing to let Mayer go.  Arias has only played 10g at AA so probably between Culpepper and Houston in terms of readiness. 

Rafaela has potential gold glove caliber defense and under contract through 2031 with a club option for 2032.  Hopefully, he can continue to grow as a hitter and cut down his chase rate.  He cut his K rate from 26% in 2024 down to 20% in 2025.  That is good progress.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Chembry said:

Maybe he didn't say that and that is fine.   Nevertheless, that doesn't color my view of him and I will continue to be a fan.  Did you watch the Netflix documentary Clubhouse: A Year With the Red Sox?  If you didn't, you really should.  It's fantastic and really shows who Jarren Duran is as a person.  He is the type of teammate everyone wants. 

I agree with you and I don't want him to be traded to the Twins.  He is under team control through 2029, but I would rather go young. 

It was reported that the Red Sox offered 2 of Arias, Garcia, and Tolle plus a lower level prospect for Ryan at the deadline.  We don't know which 2 of their top 3 were offered.  It could have been any combination, but at the time the Twins wanted Duran included.  I would much rather see a package headlined by 2 of Tolle/Marcelo Mayer/Arias.  It was recently reported by SI that the only truly untouchables for BOS are Crochet and Anthony, so maybe Rafaela would be available?  I am not sold on the Password, Campbell, or Casas (only included because we need a 1B).   

I certainly wasn't suggesting Duran is a bad person or making any kind of comment on who he is as a person. I don't know him. Never met him. Don't have an opinion of him as a human. Don't have an opinion of any player as a human unless they've been arrested or have other confirmed actions outside of the public eye. I was just stating that that quote is very likely not real.

As for a Ryan trade to Boston, I'm not a fan of adding another prospect who can't stay healthy (Mayer) to the Twins stable. I think he's talented, but he's hurt every year. No thanks. Arias and Tolle would be an interesting start to a package, but I'm not sure it couldn't be beaten by other clubs.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

As for a Ryan trade to Boston, I'm not a fan of adding another prospect who can't stay healthy (Mayer) to the Twins stable. I think he's talented, but he's hurt every year. No thanks. Arias and Tolle would be an interesting start to a package, but I'm not sure it couldn't be beaten by other clubs.

That is mol the way I feel. If it is Boston, I like Rafaela first. I would expect other clubs to be interested in Joe Ryan. While it would be best if the Twins could sign him, that seems unlikely so we should hope for a great deal. I'm hoping Detroit feels confident enough in Parker Meadows to dangle Max Clark. All things considered I have no idea what anyone in the front offices thinks though.

[chpettit19]

16 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

That is mol the way I feel. If it is Boston, I like Rafaela first. I would expect other clubs to be interested in Joe Ryan. While it would be best if the Twins could sign him, that seems unlikely so we should hope for a great deal. I'm hoping Detroit feels confident enough in Parker Meadows to dangle Max Clark. All things considered I have no idea what anyone in the front offices thinks though.

I would be absolutely shocked if they traded Clark. I'd be very happy with him headlining a deal, but I'd be incredibly surprised if they actually let him go. 

[Vanimal46]

6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I find it hard to believe that's a real quote.

Are you telling me Colonel Sanders didn't say this infamous quote? 

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Are you telling me Colonel Sanders didn't say this infamous quote? 

I've said that so I won't deny the Colonel the benefit of the doubt on this one.

[SteveLV]

By the way: The Title of this thread should not be roster "trimming".  Roster "pruning" at a minimum, if not wholesale re-landscaping.