Matt Wallner’s Unfulfilling 2025 Season and Uncertain Future

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Last Friday, the Minnesota Twins announced that Matt Wallner’s season is officially over, with an oblique strain sending him to the injured list. For the 27-year-old Forest Lake native, it closes the book on a year where he fell short of expectations. Hopes were sky-high for Wallner entering the season, as the team talked glowingly about him throughout the spring and even had him penciled in to take over the role of leadoff hitter. By season's end, that felt like a remote memory.

Injuries and Rhythm
Wallner never really found his footing in 2025. A hamstring strain cost him six weeks during the first half, and the interruption seemed to derail his offensive rhythm. Across 104 games, he slashed just .202/.311/.464, numbers that look odd for a player with his track record. For context, over 2023-24, Wallner had posted an .885 OPS and was worth 4.4 WAR in just 151 games, even with plenty of time spent shuttling back and forth from St. Paul. This year, he ended up with only 0.5 WAR in 104 games.

“It's not the way anyone wants their season to end, but his goal now is to make sure he's going into the offseason as healthy as possible to get himself in a good spot,” said Twins manager Rocco Baldelli. “I don't think that's going to be an issue, but it might take some time once the season ends to make sure his body is in a good spot.”

An Unorthodox Stat Line
Wallner’s statistical profile has always been unusual, but 2025 took that reputation to another level. His 22 home runs set a career high, yet he drove in only 40 runs, the fewest RBIs ever for a player with at least that many long balls. Barring a ferocious finish by Kody Clemens, Wallner will finish second on the team in home runs and slugging percentage, behind Byron Buxton.

There’s more: of his 68 hits on the season, 41 went for extra bases. He joined just three other players in MLB history to reach 40 extra-base hits while finishing with fewer than 70 total hits. That’s the definition of boom-or-bust.

Still, a .776 OPS equates to a 110 OPS+, meaning he was 10 percent above league average offensively. That tells the story of 2025 Matt Wallner perfectly: disappointing compared to his past, but still valuable in the Twins’ lineup.

Baldelli was asked about the potential adjustments Wallner could make.

"Closing up some gaps in his [swing] path, taking away some direct avenues in the way pitchers will attack him," the manager said. "Close up any of those holes—not completely, just by a fair amount—and it takes away a lot of different ways to pitch him.”

Indeed, the league has figured out how to pitch Wallner, even after he made a major change to his swing this season. His next step is to make another adjustment, be it physical or in his approach, to create more hard contact on pitches inside and cover the top half of the zone better.

 

What Went Wrong?
The most obvious source of lost value was Wallner's batting average. After hovering in the .250-.260 range the last two seasons, Wallner cratered to .202. However, a closer examination suggests that some bad fortune may have played a role. His BABIP fell to .228, after sitting above .300 in each of his first three seasons. His ground-ball rate only crept up a little, and he still hit the ball with authority. On top of that, his strikeout rate actually dipped slightly to 29%, and his walk rate also improved.

Those ingredients typically indicate better outcomes, which makes 2026 a strong candidate for positive regression if Wallner can stay on the field.

What Comes Next?
The Twins have some decisions to make with Wallner. He won’t reach arbitration until after next year, so he remains a cost-controlled power bat. If healthy, it’s easy to envision a 30-homer season in 2026. The bigger questions revolve around his role:

• Outfield spot? He’s serviceable in the corners, but the Twins have more athletic options coming, including Austin Martin and top prospects Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez. His strong arm has been his calling card on the defensive side, but he's rarely created real value with it, and opponents don't fear it.
• DH role? Shifting Wallner to a full-time designated hitter role could keep him healthier and maximize his power, while allowing others to handle the outfield workload. The Twins haven’t employed a dominant DH since Nelson Cruz was traded to Tampa Bay. Perhaps Wallner can take over this role next season. 
• Platoon future? Wallner is a career .181 hitter with a .641 OPS against left-handed pitching, which means he may always be a matchup-dependent bat. Some fans have called for the team’s left-handed bats to get more opportunities against southpaws, but the Twins aren’t likely to follow that path with Wallner.

Even with those caveats, it’s worth noting: Wallner’s “down year” still included 22 homers and a 110 OPS+. For most players, that’s a career year. For Wallner, it just felt strange. The Twins will gladly roll the dice on positive improvements and good health in 2026, because if he looks more like the 2023–24 version, Wallner remains one of the franchise’s most dangerous hitters.

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What do you make of Wallner’s 2025 season? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[mikelink45]

Since the choice is probably Larnach or Wallner I suspect the 22 HRs will win.  Then I put him at DH.  Time for athletic OFs. 

[Dustin West]

4 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Since the choice is probably Larnach or Wallner I suspect the 22 HRs will win.  Then I put him at DH.  Time for athletic OFs. 

Greatly agree- Larnach continues to be a, at best, league average bat with okay-ish pop- but not in the caliber of Wallner. Defensively I'd say it's a toss up between the two. Wallner just always seems so stiff at the plate. 

[Old Crow]

I still don't understand why a low average, long ball hitter bats in the ledoff position.   

[Doctor Gast]

The days of bomba squad & the Twins' "all or nothing' approach are long gone, but the effects still linger. Sano couldn't adapt; Larnach has adapted but lost his power & Wallner is looking for a happy medium. This year has had a career HR season, but also SOs, but the fact that he has career PAs, his SO rate has been better. The big deal to many fans is slugging & OPS. But what good is it if you hit solo HRs when we don't need them (low leverage)? & getting outs when we do (high leverage)? I like Wallner & IMO he isn't a bad RFer but wish he were more clutch.

[Byrdman]

I would like them to just part ways with both Larnach and Wallner.  There are some better hitters and fielders hitting FA this year that we should go after. If they refuse to spend money just bring up the young guys and let them play every single day. 

[TwinsDr2021]

"Despite injuries and historic oddities, Matt Wallner was still one of the Twins’ best batters in 2025."

This says more about the Twins as a whole than it does abut Wallner. Wallner being one of the better hitters and explains why the team is sitting at 68-90. Wallner was absolutely terrible this year! (.5 WAR)

And injuries once again. (Hey he did better against left handed pitchers than right handed pitchers)

RISP - .652 OPS (.177 BA, 323 SLG)

Late and close - .565 OPS

Tie Game - .624 OPS (4 homers)

Within 1 run - .661 OPS (9 homers)

Within 2 runs - .737 OPS  (13 homers)

Within 3 runs - .702 OPS (13 homers)

Within 4 runs - .708 OPS (15 homers)

Overall behind - .861 OPS (12 homers)

High Leverage - .680 OPS (3 homers)

Medium Leverage - .539 OPS (3 homers)

Low Leverage - .975 (16 of his homers)

Greater than 4 run league - 1.115 OPS (7 of his homers)

[DJL44]

54 minutes ago, Old Crow said:

I still don't understand why a low average, long ball hitter bats in the ledoff position.   

He had a .370 OBP in 2023-24. Getting on base is a good thing. Even as his average declined, he kept taking his walks. It's one reason his RBI numbers are bad - with RISP he has 11 hits and 14 walks. A .177 average but a .329 OBP. Pitchers are much more careful pitching to him with runners on because they know any mistake could go over the fence.

Wallner had a down year, you could tell he had some bad streaks at the plate where he was fighting it. The bigger problem for him has been staying on the field. 104 games played is a career high, and it isn't anything special.

He actually hit lefties better than RHP this season. He hasn't shown a huge platoon split in the minors either. I wouldn't turn him into a platoon bat. I think he will spend a lot more time at DH, especially on the road, with Martin, Rodriguez and Jenkins showing better outfield range. I don't think he's a first baseman.

If he can keep making those adjustments at the plate, he's a good bet to be a 2 WAR player next season. If he can play 150 games, he's probably going to hit 30 HR.

[tony&rodney]

The biggest contribution Wallner can make for future Twins teams is if another MLB club feels his powerful bat is important to their own team's improved offense. Who will offer a decent player for Matt Wallner?

I do think Wallner could be a reasonably ok DH for the Twins. Can we guarantee that Baldelli will not put Big Matt in the outfield?

Finally, the headline above the video, "Matt Wallner is a building block ....". The Twins will finish 2025 as a 90+ loss team. Without some strategic moves in the offseason, fans should expect several more or worse performances. Winning teams are not built around .204 hitters.

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, Old Crow said:

I still don't understand why a low average, long ball hitter bats in the ledoff position.   

What if, instead, the Twins did something really crazy and put a high OBP guy ahead of Wallner in the lineup?  That way - and just hear me out - a few of those solo shots might become 2 run HRs!  Radical concept, I know, but maybe, just maybe, it's worth a try...

[Greglw3]

The above league average hitter shows the weakness and depth of the flaw of the OPS+ stat, which rewards hitters with a high slugging percentage very disproportionately vs a play who can really hit, like Austin Martin or Luke Keaschall.

I watch all the games, have a long history following the Twins and for a key cog in a team’s batting order, that was one of the worst offensive season’s in Twins history. I’ve never seen a player with a bigger hole in his swing than Wallner and he made no attempt to adjust but soon from the heals all season long.

 

Bringing back Larnach and Wallner would conjure up the old saying, "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. I don’ thin the Twins can take that risk. I agree a trade for a .280+ hitter with .360+ on base skills would be a good start to fixing this long broken offense.

Plus we have Walker Jenkins, Gabriel Gonzalez (who hit .300 at all levels this year for a cumulative .329), Kyler Fedko, Emmanuel Rodriguez at AAA who I would start developing over the two incumbents who haven’t worked out if you’re a team aiming for excellence.

They also have 21 year old Hendry Mendez, acquired in the Bader trade, who hit very well at Wichita, well over .300. And we have Kaelen Culpepper.

Allen Roden may pan out.

Even though I really rooted for him, Outman looks iffy, at best, but I’d still bring him to spring training.

If the Pohlads would step aside and new owners replace the inept Falvey and fire Baldelli and his coaching staff, a significant turnaround could be possible.

 

[Linus]

Once again TK had it right: you don’t know what you have until they get 1000-1500 at bats. I’m surprised he hasn’t tried to modify his setup / swing. He has so much raw power he could ditch the huge leg kick / lunge and still hit the ball a mile but have far fewer holes in his swing. This year wasnt good enough - a 110 OPS+ is not good enough for a corner outfielder that is a bad fielder. His arm is strong but negated by his lack of throwing accuracy - teams have that figured out too. I don’t blame him for the lack of RBIs because the main reason for this is the whole lineup just doesn’t get on base much. I like Wallner more than Larnach who needs to go mainly for the power upside but Matt can’t have another year like this next year. For me he isn’t a good enough hitter to be an every day DH so it’s RF or bust. 

[Road trip]

Certainly a disappointing year for Wallner.  His inability to catch up to high fastballs this year was exploited pretty relentlessly by the league.  Something changed... in '23 and '24 he was a fastball hitter that struggled badly with breaking balls.  This year he hit breaking balls very well (.250 BA, .573 SLG), but high fastballs just ate him up.  Whether it was health, a change in his swing, a change in the pitches he was looking for, or something else...overall it didn't work.  The walks and power remain valuable, but a BA nearer .250 would sure be nice.

He remains inexpensive for one more year.  Thus, he will get one more chance, hopefully as primary DH and occasional RF.  Maybe he will put it all together in '26, but he needs to return to the hitting form he showed in '23 and '24.  

[twinzcynic]

15 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

The above league average hitter shows the weakness and depth of the flaw of the OPS+ stat, which rewards hitters with a high slugging percentage very disproportionately vs a play who can really hit, like Austin Martin or Luke Keaschall.

Agree 100%. Wallner (and Gallo before him) are excellent examples on how skewed OPS+ can be for boom or bust hitters. It gives way too much weight to XBHs, and subsequently it tricks stats like WAR into thinking that these players are more valuable than they are.

[Reptevia]

“Fringe player who can’t hit for average or field is one of Twin’s best players”!  And therein lies the problem. 

[jmlease1]

25 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

The above league average hitter shows the weakness and depth of the flaw of the OPS+ stat, which rewards hitters with a high slugging percentage very disproportionately vs a play who can really hit, like Austin Martin or Luke Keaschall.

I watch all the games, have a long history following the Twins and for a key cog in a team’s batting order, that was one of the worst offensive season’s in Twins history. I’ve never seen a player with a bigger hole in his swing than Wallner and he made no attempt to adjust but soon from the heals all season long.

 

Bringing back Larnach and Wallner would conjure up the old saying, "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. I don’ thin the Twins can take that risk. I agree a trade for a .280+ hitter with .360+ on base skills would be a good start to fixing this long broken offense.

Plus we have Walker Jenkins, Gabriel Gonzalez (who hit .300 at all levels this year for a cumulative .329), Kyler Fedko, Emmanuel Rodriguez at AAA who I would start developing over the two incumbents who haven’t worked out if you’re a team aiming for excellence.

They also have 21 year old Hendry Mendez, acquired in the Bader trade, who hit very well at Wichita, well over .300. And we have Kaelen Culpepper.

Allen Roden may pan out.

Even though I really rooted for him, Outman looks iffy, at best, but I’d still bring him to spring training.

If the Pohlads would step aside and new owners replace the inept Falvey and fire Baldelli and his coaching staff, a significant turnaround could be possible.

 

Larnach and Wallner really shouldn't be looked at the same; even in a down season, Wallner has been better and Wallner has been consistently better over his career than Larnach. I don't expect Larnach back, because he's getting expensive and hasn't performed well enough.

Do I hope Jenkins, Gonzalez, Rodriguez, and/or Fedko push Wallner to DH? Sure do. But that's also 4 guys with a collective zero AB's in MLB so...

Mendez hasn't played over AA, and Culpepper is a SS who hasn't played above AA. Not relevent to a Wallner in 2026 conversation, really.

Roden might pan out and will almost certainly get another chance, but so far has been awful at the plate. Outman? I guess he's better defensively than Wallner, but he's never come close to Wallner's peak performance and he's been brutal since his own best season. No thank you.

Historically, Wallner absolutely pounds RHP. He's shown he can be very productive, and if he can make the adjustment on high fastballs in particular, he can go back to being a very productive hitter that a certain segment of Twins fans will never like.

Next season will be a critical one for Wallner, because it'll be his last pre-arb season. If he turns in another season like this, he might not get tendered, and he has significant prospects coming for his roster spot who have higher ceilings.

A great result would be Wallner hitting like he did in 2023-2024 and one or more of Gonzalez, Jenkins, or Rodriguez making it easy to slide him to the DH role.

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, Old Crow said:

I still don't understand why a low average, long ball hitter bats in the ledoff position.   

To quote Nate Bargatze’s George Washington: “Nobody knows”

Or we could just produce a new sitcom called “Rocco Knows Best”.  

[mnfireman]

53 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

"Despite injuries and historic oddities, Matt Wallner was still one of the Twins’ best batters in 2025."

This says more about the Twins as a whole than it does abut Wallner. Wallner being one of the better hitters and explains why the team is sitting at 68-90. Wallner was absolutely terrible this year! (.5 WAR)

No, it says more about how misleading certain metrics/new age stats can be, OPS being one of them.

[DJL44]

39 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The biggest contribution Wallner can make for future Twins teams is if another MLB club feels his powerful bat is important to their own team's improved offense. Who will offer a decent player for Matt Wallner?

I do think Wallner could be a reasonably ok DH for the Twins. Can we guarantee that Baldelli will not put Big Matt in the outfield?

Finally, the headline above the video, "Matt Wallner is a building block ....". The Twins will finish 2025 as a 90+ loss team. Without some strategic moves in the offseason, fans should expect several more or worse performances. Winning teams are not built around .204 hitters.

So much self-contradiction here. If winning teams aren't built around .204 hitters, then why would another team look to Wallner to improve their offense? Large market teams almost always have an old, expensive, fading star to play at DH. Contenders get All-Stars like Soto and Judge to play in RF.

Wallner's best fit is probably on a team like the Twins - low budget and lacking offense. Maybe you could get Tampa, Colorado or the Royals interested.

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

No, it says more about how misleading certain metrics/new age stats can be, OPS being one of them.

OPS has been popular since the mid-1980s and on baseball cards since 2004. Is a 40-year old stat "new age"?

Look at the OPS leaders - they're all great hitters. If you want a really misleading stat for offensive production - use RBI.

[mnfireman]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If you want a really misleading stat for offensive production - use RBI.

Quote attributed to Matt Wallner - 2025.....

[tony&rodney]

11 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If winning teams aren't built around .204 hitters, then why would another team look to Wallner to improve their offense?

Exactly. Is there a team that imagines that Wallner is as valuable as many on Twins Daily posters see him? I have no idea what team or why they would trade for him. However, we continue to read how valuable Wallner could be for the Twins. Right? I'm merely wondering if another team feels the same way as many TD posters. 

[SteveLV]

OK, don't flame me, but is there REALLY any reason physically why Wallner could not play 1B vs. RHP? He is a tall, big target for throws.  He is still relatively young.  I am not channeling Scott Hatterburg here, but with a full off-season coming can't they at least TRY him at 1B to see if he can adapt?

If his bat regresses positively to his career average and he can start 125-30 games vs. RH starting pitching at 1B and bat 6 or 7th in a lineup, I could see that being productive.

They don't have any other in-house obvious candidates for 1B next year with Miranda flailing in AAA and likely to be released and Sabato still K'ing up a storm.  Who else is going to play 1B?  Re-sign Clemens? I sure don't see this ownership signing a FA 1B that has a better bat than Wallner.....

[Brandon]

Wallner’s average was down 50 points this season.  I would like to see if he can get them back next season.  He has 35-45 HR power if he can play a full season.  He gets the 50 points back on his average and he is close to a .900 OPS hitter.  We don’t have too many of those here.  This season he was a productive Joey Gallo with over a 110+ OPS.  Which is better than many of the other hitters on the team.  And this was a down year for him.  So let’s give him a break and see what happens next season.  We can always trade him later.  He is a Minnesotan.  Might as well root for the hometown player. 

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

we continue to read how valuable Wallner could be for the Twins.

Do you know of a better bat the Twins can get who makes the minimum salary? For a team trying to play with a budget in the bottom 20%, he's a great player to have.

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, SteveLV said:

OK, don't flame me, but is there REALLY any reason physically why Wallner could not play 1B vs. RHP? He is a tall, big target for throws.  He is still relatively young.  I am not channeling Scott Hatterburg here, but with a full off-season coming can't they at least TRY him at 1B to see if he can adapt?

If his bat regresses positively to his career average and he can start 125-30 games vs. RH starting pitching at 1B and bat 6 or 7th in a lineup, I could see that being productive.

They don't have any other in-house obvious candidates for 1B next year with Miranda flailing in AAA and likely to be released and Sabato still K'ing up a storm.  Who else is going to play 1B?  Re-sign Clemens? I sure don't see this ownership signing a FA 1B that has a better bat than Wallner.....

A first baseman must have some reflexes to defend themselves. Big Matt can be pretty quick with a bat in his hands. He seems like he is unsure or doesn't see well in the outfield. His reactions are glacial. 

Many people have floated this idea. Wallner has never played an inning at first base since he went to college. There is little doubt in my mind that some coach tried him out at 1B in practice on several occasions. Maybe that never happened but that would be very weird if no manager thought, hey maybe Wallner can play first base. 

While this seems like an idea to try, I'm going to suggest it was already given a trial run.

[SteveLV]

tony&rodney, I agree that 1B needs reflexes for fielding and agree with what you wrote, but does anyone actually KNOW that they have tried/discussed 1B with Wallner or are we all just speculating?

He may love to play OF and never wanted to try it?  He was always the best athlete in HS, so why play 1B? I know he was also a P in HS. 

Again, I am just spitballing, but he sure looks more like a 1B than Arraez or Miranda ever did/have!

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Do you know of a better bat the Twins can get who makes the minimum salary? For a team trying to play with a budget in the bottom 20%, he's a great player to have.

All things considered, I would expect both of Gabriel Gonzalez and Walker Jenkins to produce more than Wallner. There are others. However, it is the job of the front office to find the players. The last two years the Twins stood pat. In late July the front office sent off a pile of players (was it 10 or 11). What remains is a 100 loss outfit. Some changes should occur. It would be strange if the front office did nothing.

There are going to be people who think highly of Matt Wallner. Some people like him because he is from Minnesota. I think he might be useful as strictly and only a DH. Others will disagree. That is the nature of comments and fans. Ultimately we hope the Twins are better .... later .... or eventually somewhere down the road. How the team improves is a natural point of disagreement. 

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, SteveLV said:

tony&rodney, I agree that 1B needs reflexes for fielding and agree with what you wrote, but does anyone actually KNOW that they have tried/discussed 1B with Wallner or are we all just speculating?

He may love to play OF and never wanted to try it?  He was always the best athlete in HS, so why play 1B? I know he was also a P in HS. 

Again, I am just spitballing, but he sure looks more like a 1B than Arraez or Miranda ever did/have!

We are making educated guesses. I coached for decades. A natural part of coaching is to try players at many positions. Sometimes great outfielders cannot play in the infield because they think everything happens too fast. I believe we saw a quote from Byron Buxton to that effect and he did pitch in high school but didn't really like it. I have known of players who were uncomfortable at first base simply when the ball and a base runner were happening at the same time. There are a ton of variables that eliminate a player from playing a position. It was really hard to convert a player to catching. Most hated it or were fearful. A few found it to be a blast and became very good catchers.

We really don't know about Wallner and first base. It is extremely unlikely and would be in very poor taste (something I would never do to a former player) if a former coach gave quotes on Wallner and any attempts on his transitioning to first base. We do not know though.

[RpR]

36 minutes ago, SteveLV said:

OK, don't flame me, but is there REALLY any reason physically why Wallner could not play 1B vs. RHP? He is a tall, big target for throws.  He is still relatively young.  I am not channeling Scott Hatterburg here, but with a full off-season coming can't they at least TRY him at 1B to see if he can adapt?

If his bat regresses positively to his career average and he can start 125-30 games vs. RH starting pitching at 1B and bat 6 or 7th in a lineup, I could see that being productive.

They don't have any other in-house obvious candidates for 1B next year with Miranda flailing in AAA and likely to be released and Sabato still K'ing up a storm.  Who else is going to play 1B?  Re-sign Clemens? I sure don't see this ownership signing a FA 1B that has a better bat than Wallner.....

He is slow and awkward, !st base needs quick reactions.