Payroll 101: Where the Twins’ 2026 Budget Starts (and Could Go)

[John Bonnes]

Image courtesy of © Harrison Barden-Imagn Images

Payroll isn’t just a Twins problem—it’s the primary factor shaping every MLB team’s roster, even without a salary cap. You might feel that’s unwarranted, and if so, feel free to vent in the comments of the dozens of stories we’ve had on ownership. But our focus is going to be more practical. 

Given that payroll is an important factor for the Twins, what are the hard numbers for 2026 and what do they mean? To do that, we’re going to do some back-of-the-napkin figuring, approximating the numbers the front office will also be using as this offseason begins.

But first, here is some context about the Twins' payroll.

1. Payroll for this year's 26-man roster is approximately $115 million. It started at around $140 million, but about $25 million of that was traded away during the fire sale.
2. Last year’s payroll was closer to $130M. So the Twins went into this year raising payroll about $10-15M, but when they failed to compete, they lowered it by another $10-15M.
3. The year before that, the Twins had a payroll of over $150 million. It was “right-sized” by ownership following that 2023 season. That remains the high-water mark of payroll in the Twins' history.
4. The median payroll for an MLB team in 2026 will likely be around $170M.

So where do things sit? To figure that out, we’ll look at the Twins’ team as they enter the offseason. Essentially, we’re assuming they won’t bring back any free agents, make rational decisions on players under arbitration, and must pay MLB’s minimum salary (~$800K) to someone for each roster spot.

We call it our “back-of-the-napkin” figuring because some of these estimates are imprecise: we generally know how much players are likely to earn in arbitration, but the exact numbers may not be known until the offseason is over. Doing all that, the answer is ... (drumroll, please):

The baseline Twins payroll is about $95M. Here are the back-of-the-napkin figures:

It’s essential to note that this is a starting point, not an endpoint. If the Twins add some free agents, they will add to that number, as they did last year when adding Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe, and Ty France for $10.25M.

Of course, they could also trade away some of these guys, too, as they did the year before when they traded away Jorge Polanco to free up additional money. A glance at the numbers above shows why there is so much speculation about whether the Twins might trade away pitchers like Pablo Lopez or Joe Ryan: doing so could lower their payroll to $65M.

All of which leaves us short one very important number: what is the Twins’ payroll budget for 2026? That is something the team has been increasingly less willing to share, which makes it harder for fans and media to see the context around the offseason moves they make.

The difference between an $85M payroll, a $115M payroll, and a $145M payroll becomes obvious when looking at the details. At $85M, the Twins likely need to cut further. At $115M, they can tread water, making modest additions. At $145M, they’d have up to $50M to shop, enough to chase one premium free agent or even multiple difference makers.

Without that piece of information, it is very difficult for us to evaluate what the Twins will be up to this offseason. However, that information tends to leak out during the offseason as they engage in meetings with free agents and other teams. When it does, we’ll see whether the Twins plan to scrape by, tread water, or reload in earnest.

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Let us know in the comments what you think will happen and what you think should happen.

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[Fatbat]

Is Ryan and Ober at a combined 15.5m  not an absolute payroll bargain ?? 
A Healthy Pablo on contract is in line with league average for his services. Why the h*ll would you trade them away??? 
 

Basically everyone is low budget item A to Z. Even buck’s contract.

How are the Twins allowed to scrape by with a payroll under $100M? 
Baseball allowing the Pohlads to do this is absolutely unacceptable.

 

[Glorybound]

I don’t see ownership adding anything of substance to current payroll. Subtracting is far more likely. After seeing the results of the trade deadline deals this team will be in the AL central basement for at least the next 2 seasons.

[DJL44]

I'm guessing the investors bought in knowing the Twins were going to cut payroll and cash revenue sharing checks. It's the most profitable business model under the current CBA. Shared revenue in MLB is over $200M per team. Will the Twins even spend half of the money they get from the league?

[Doctor Gast]

Twins were expected to trade away the expiring contracts. Their decision to go beyond that sent a message loud & clear to the Twins' fans. "We are not only waving a white flag for this season, but for many seasons to come, to right-size the team". Which was a very bad decision, because we sold off those who could help the team to compete & putting Falvey in charge of the sell-off meant not getting who we needed, not getting full value & bloating our system with redundant players who he'll never trade away.

Trading away Pablo Lopez & Joe Ryan will only magnify the situation by further bloating the system, where we'll lose good players via Rule 5 Draft & have many deserving players stuck in MiLB, becoming very disheartened. IMO, the atmosphere is toxic & will only get worse. If Falvey couldn't produce a postseason team from the great '23 core; How can he produce one from a deeply fractured core? He can't. If we can't win with Lopez & Ryan then we just as well trade them away & save some more money for the Pohlads.

I have a better solution, a solution they should have done a long time ago. Clean house, Falvey & Co. & get someone in who knows what he's doing. Otherwise, forget about it.

[mikelink45]

They have established our expectations and the expectations are low and lower. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I know this is a starting point and not an ending point, but you paint a pretty ugly picture.  At that level and with those players, this team will likely lose close to 100 games.  Trading Lopez and Ryan makes it even worse and might put us in Colorado Rockies territory.  As pitchers that will at least keep us in the game, they give us a chance to win two out of five days.  Even if some of the young guys step up, it's still a crap shoot at best 60% of the time. 

Since we can't even dream up who the bullpen names are, they would at least have to add someone (or a few someones) there, but where they generally shop, the budget can largely stay intact. 

On the subject of the lineup, it makes me queasy to think that Clemons could be the starting first baseman and Mickey Gaspar could be the backup catcher.  Even at a ridiculously low budget number, something will need to be done there, even if it means bringing up prospects that aren't ready.  Also, I think Trevor Larnach is a non-tender candidate given the players coming up to push him.  That will save them almost $4M to spend on that bullpen.  Speaking of that figure, Royce Lewis projects to $4M?  That's actually a worse value than Larnach, but I get it, we keep him as still having projectability to what he might become.  I hope he's worth it.  

[shimrod]

18 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

....Twins were going to cut payroll and cash revenue sharing checks.

This is my expectation, at least until a new CBA. Ryan, Lopez, Larnach and possibly Jeffers gone. Those clamoring to see the kids brought up will get their wish. 

Falvey and Rocco will be retained if only to keep from paying two salaries at those positions. 

I expect payroll to settle somewhere in the  low 60s. 

[silverslugger]

The team's willingness to get rid of Ryan at the deadline signals to me that both Ryan and Lopez will be traded in the offseason to shed payroll.  

Prior to the end of 2023, the Pohlads were willing to spend money at a rate that allowed for competitive baseball.  For reasons spelled out in many of other places, the Pohlads have decided that clearing red ink is much more important that fielding a competitive team for Twins fans.  For that reason, I believe the payroll on starting day 2026 will be south of $100 million.  

Teams can be competitive south of $100 million, just look at Cleveland.  However, I've lost all faith that Falvey has this organization on the right track to be competitive.  His positives on the pitching side do not outweigh the negatives of his hitting philosophy and lack of development on that side.  So, I'm scared to death of what he'll do with the trades of Lopez and Ryan.  In short, not a very enjoyable time to be a Twins fan, and a life-long one at age 60.

[mluebker]

If, by some miracle, the Pohlads were to actually invest some money in their team, a big NO to chasing “one premium free agent.” What the Twins need more than anything right now is “multiple difference makers.”

[lukeduke1980]

13 minutes ago, shimrod said:

This is my expectation, at least until a new CBA. Ryan, Lopez, Larnach and possibly Jeffers gone. Those clamoring to see the kids brought up will get their wish. 

Falvey and Rocco will be retained if only to keep from paying two salaries at those positions. 

I expect payroll to settle somewhere in the  low 60s. 

I suspect that the Astros' rebuild blueprint is the new plan.  Pohlads get a cheap product, Falvey gets 5-7 more years to see it through, Rocco can stay as long as he can stand the kids.

[In My La Z boy]

Pablo's salary sticks out like a sore thumb to a bean counter. I fail to understand how trading Joe Ryan is in any way a smart thing to do? At $8.5M he will bring back $25M in value to this team, and if we stink it up, no doubt Joe would still bring a haul in prospects for a year 1/2 of service to a contender at next years trade deadline. Dealing Ober at $7M seems smarter if that's what we're doing to shed salary.

[Glorybound]

3 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

Pablo's salary sticks out like a sore thumb to a bean counter. I fail to understand how trading Joe Ryan is in any way a smart thing to do? At $8.5M he will bring back $25M in value to this team, and if we stink it up, no doubt Joe would still bring a haul in prospects for a year 1/2 of service to a contender at next years trade deadline. Dealing Ober at $7M seems smarter if that's what we're doing to shed salary.

The value of a team acquiring Joe Ryan is more than just a great pitcher with 2 yrs left. It’s the potential to be able to extend that said contract much like the Twins did with Pablo. Likely Ryan would sign an extension with a solid team.

[In My La Z boy]

4 minutes ago, Glorybound said:

The value of a team acquiring Joe Ryan is more than just a great pitcher with 2 yrs left. It’s the potential to be able to extend that said contract much like the Twins did with Pablo. Likely Ryan would sign an extension with a solid team.

Understood, but what's the point? To save money? To acquire prospects? Which, or both? 
The damn point of any organization should be to win. Joe helps us win, and he is of substantially more value than his contract. Let's see if we can win with him first next year, if not, then we still get a tremendous haul next summer, and the acquiring team can have him and lock him up. I want to field a winning product. We have a lot of prospects already.

[Glorybound]

All well and good but it wouldn’t be a shock to hear him request a trade. With no defense or bullpen behind him right now his teammates are costing him money in arbitration. The fact that his name was tossed around in deadline trade deals does nothing to help the organization either. There are times when even the good guys draw a line in the sand and say “get me the he!! Out of here”.

[DJL44]

8 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

I want to field a winning product. We have a lot of prospects already.

To win next season they need those prospects contributing on day one and they still need to add 4 relievers, a first baseman and a catcher. Do you think that is likely?

[DJL44]

I expect them to trade Larnach and I expect them to sell Joe Ryan at peak value. That brings the payroll down to $83M. I think they will shop Ober, but won't like the offers so they'll keep him and hope for a bounceback so they can sell him at the 2026 trade deadline. I am a little worried they will sell Jeffers and go with Pereda and Gasper behind the plate.

[In My La Z boy]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

To win next season they need those prospects contributing on day one and they still need to add 4 relievers, a first baseman and a catcher. Do you think that is likely?

No. But is more unlikely we get a Joe Ryan back for Joe Ryan. Can we at least try to field a winning product?

[Rufus]

Don't the Twins have to pay a portion of Correa's contract also?   Should be included in the overall list?  For $4.5 mil. I would surely consider keeping Larnach.  He keeps showing signs of breaking out  and living up to his potential.  They definitely need a new manager next year.  Baldelli just doesn't seem to have the team laying for him.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, In My La Z boy said:

No. But is more unlikely we get a Joe Ryan back for Joe Ryan. Can we at least try to field a winning product?

They will make about $35-$40M more profit by losing.

1 minute ago, Rufus said:

Don't the Twins have to pay a portion of Correa's contract also?   Should be included in the overall list?

It's included - "Other".

[Launch Angle]

36 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

Pablo's salary sticks out like a sore thumb to a bean counter. I fail to understand how trading Joe Ryan is in any way a smart thing to do? At $8.5M he will bring back $25M in value to this team, and if we stink it up, no doubt Joe would still bring a haul in prospects for a year 1/2 of service to a contender at next years trade deadline. Dealing Ober at $7M seems smarter if that's what we're doing to shed salary.

Ryan's value is extremely high right now and would bring in a haul of prospects. As much as I would hate to trade him, it's probably the right move since the Twins wont be competitive for the next 2 years. Even if Ryan pitches at a Cy Young level his value is irrelevant to a 60-70 win team.

There's a big risk to not trading Ryan right now. If he gets injured, which he's been prone to do, his value could plummet. They should just trade both him and Lopez which will make it even easier for me to stay away from Target field.

[In My La Z boy]

Just now, DJL44 said:

They will make about $35-$40M more profit by losing.

It's included - "Other".

And Falvey & Rocco are their patsy's? If both of these guys well understand this as you've described then they are complicit, earning fat salaries knowing we have no chance to compete. How does Manfred allow such a disincentive as this. By losing our business makes more money? That's a stupid business model.

[Rufus]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They will make about $35-$40M more profit by losing.

It's included - "Other".

Sorry I missed that.

[Nashvilletwin]

The bad news: Jeffers, Larnach, Lopez, Ryan and Ober total $49MM. Trading those five and replacing them with minimum $ players nets about $45MM in cash comp savings, leaving just $50MM.  They still have to pay some of  Correa ($33MM over three years) and will sign a cheap reliever or two.  Net, net look for about $65MM next season.

The good news: when the new CBA is signed hopefully it has both a hard cap and a hard floor.  This helps the Twins on both sides of that result: bigger teams are reeled in and the the Twins will have to spend a lot more $ to get to the league minimum (which will be set higher than many think in order to satisfy the players agreeing on a cap).

The really bad news:  the Twins will likely stink in ‘26 (and ‘27 for however many games are actually played that season).

The really good news: heading into ‘28, the Twins should have an unbelievably talented young, cheap and controllable core both on the field and on the mound AND the team will be forced to augment that core with new FAs required by the new minimum annual spend decreed in the new CBA.  Oh, and Rocco should be long gone by then too.

The really, really good news: the Pohlads sell the team in ‘28 post the new CBA and TV revenue visibility/resolution.  So there truly will be a new beginning 

So it’s baseball purgatory for two years  while we wait for the plan to take shape and hope to emerge. But make no mistake, this is essentially how the plan is going to unfold.  

[In My La Z boy]

1 minute ago, Launch Angle said:

Ryan's value is extremely high right now and would bring in a haul of prospects. As much as I would hate to trade him, it's probably the right move since the Twins wont be competitive for the next 2 years. Even if Ryan pitches at a Cy Young level his value is irrelevant to a 60-70 win team.

There's a big risk to not trading Ryan right now. If he gets injured, which he's been prone to do, his value could plummet. They should just trade both him and Lopez which will make it even easier for me to stay away from Target field.

So we have more prospects to NOT properly develop. There is no point to this other than salary dump with the "cover" of these future magical prospects. Where are they? Now we're already onto the next wave? Here comes Jenkins and Culpepper oh boy

[Glorybound]

3 minutes ago, Launch Angle said:

Ryan's value is extremely high right now and would bring in a haul of prospects. As much as I would hate to trade him, it's probably the right move since the Twins wont be competitive for the next 2 years. Even if Ryan pitches at a Cy Young level his value is irrelevant to a 60-70 win team.

There's a big risk to not trading Ryan right now. If he gets injured, which he's been prone to do, his value could plummet. They should just trade both him and Lopez which will make it even easier for me to stay away from Target field.

Joe Ryan has not been injury prone. If the organization was worth 2 cents he would have signed an extension already and this conversation would be nuts.

[In My La Z boy]

1 minute ago, Glorybound said:

Joe Ryan has not been injury prone. If the organization was worth 2 cents he would have signed an extension already and this conversation would be nuts.

This conversation is nuts 👍

[D.C Twins]

Clemens and Larnach are not worth their arbitration numbers.

I hope they keep Ryan and trade Lopez (for the right return of course)

I'm OK with a low payroll next year as long as they let the kids play. 

I do NOT want to see a bunch of scrap heap veterans brought in....

[karcherd]

A lot of comments saying we will see the kids.  But this front office does not give priority to their own players.  We have seen the likes of Gallo, Margot, Santana, France and bullpen washouts before we ever see the kids.  This front office will try to sign cheap free agents and say hey we are trying to win.  They will proclaim Clemens as the starter at 1B just like they are now.

They have the opportunity now to give some kids a chance instead you have a bullpen that up until yesterday had Noah Davis in it, not to mention a bunch of other 30 plus stopgap veterans who no one wants.  You have Gasper pinch hitting in the top of the 9th.  No I don't think the kids will get a chance, it will be more of the same and maybe we can threaten the loss record that the Rockies will set this year.

[TwinsDr2021]

13 minutes ago, Glorybound said:

Joe Ryan has not been injury prone. If the organization was worth 2 cents he would have signed an extension already and this conversation would be nuts.

Please by all means list the teams that are worth 2 cents that have extended a starting pitcher that doesn't become a FA until age 32.