Payroll 101: Where the Twins’ 2026 Budget Starts (and Could Go)

[tony&rodney]

We might have a better guess on October 1. At that time the club can take a look at the records for each month, the attendance, media numbers, evaluate the rosters, finalize a basic budget number for 2026, and discuss the next steps.

My team would be more interesting at $75-90M. 

Hope for positive change. It is all we can do.

[Glorybound]

25 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Please by all means list the teams that are worth 2 cents that have extended a starting pitcher that doesn't become a FA until age 32. 

Joe Musgrave was extended 5 yrs. Sonny Gray was extended before the Twins acquired him. Pablo Lopez was extended back when their ownership was trying to win. Those are a few that I know of. It can be done but not if you are not counting pennies.

[DJL44]

55 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

And Falvey & Rocco are their patsy's? If both of these guys well understand this as you've described then they are complicit, earning fat salaries knowing we have no chance to compete. How does Manfred allow such a disincentive as this. By losing our business makes more money? That's a stupid business model.

Who else is going to hire Falvey or Rocco to run a team? 
 

I agree that the MLB revenue sharing model creates really bad incentives.

[DJL44]

45 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The bad news: Jeffers, Larnach, Lopez, Ryan and Ober total $49MM. Trading those five and replacing them with minimum $ players nets about $45MM in cash comp savings, leaving just $50MM.  They still have to pay some of  Correa ($33MM over three years) and will sign a cheap reliever or two.  Net, net look for about $65MM next season.

The good news: when the new CBA is signed hopefully it has both a hard cap and a hard floor.  This helps the Twins on both sides of that result: bigger teams are reeled in and the the Twins will have to spend a lot more $ to get to the league minimum (which will be set higher than many think in order to satisfy the players agreeing on a cap).

The really bad news:  the Twins will likely stink in ‘26 (and ‘27 for however many games are actually played that season).

The really good news: heading into ‘28, the Twins should have an unbelievably talented young, cheap and controllable core both on the field and on the mound AND the team will be forced to augment that core with new FAs required by the new minimum annual spend decreed in the new CBA.  Oh, and Rocco should be long gone by then too.

The really, really good news: the Pohlads sell the team in ‘28 post the new CBA and TV revenue visibility/resolution.  So there truly will be a new beginning 

So it’s baseball purgatory for two years  while we wait for the plan to take shape and hope to emerge. But make no mistake, this is essentially how the plan is going to unfold.  

My uncle said to hope in one hand and crap in the other and see which one fills up faster.

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, shimrod said:

This is my expectation, at least until a new CBA. Ryan, Lopez, Larnach and possibly Jeffers gone. Those clamoring to see the kids brought up will get their wish. 

Falvey and Rocco will be retained if only to keep from paying two salaries at those positions. 

I expect payroll to settle somewhere in the  low 60s. 

I'm expecting payroll between $70-80 mil.

[TwinsDr2021]

10 minutes ago, Glorybound said:

Joe Musgrave was extended 5 yrs. Sonny Gray was extended before the Twins acquired him. Pablo Lopez was extended back when their ownership was trying to win. Those are a few that I know of. It can be done but not if you are not counting pennies.

Lopez was extended though age 31 season (same as the Twins have Ryan locked into) so that isn't close to the same thing.

Musgrave cost the Padres 5/100 and so far started 17, 19 an 0 games a year since. How is that working out for the San Diego? 

Sonny Gray's extension worked so well, The Reds traded Gray away, and there is no chance the Twins could get anything close to that kind of deal (3/30 with a 12 million club option (which the twins picked up) basically 4/42. 

So a terrible deal, a deal that is nothing like Ryan, and a bargain deal that the Twins have no chance at getting. 

I feel like people want Ryan extended so they can bitch about how much he makes when he is hurt or not as good. Like Twins fans do about any player and the money they are paid. 

 

 

[Major League Ready]

34 minutes ago, Glorybound said:

Joe Musgrave was extended 5 yrs. Sonny Gray was extended before the Twins acquired him. Pablo Lopez was extended back when their ownership was trying to win. Those are a few that I know of. It can be done but not if you are not counting pennies.

I deleted my post when I found TwinsDr2021 posted pretty much exactly what I wrote.  I would add that the point of a trading these players is to get their replacement for 6-7 years for far less.   That's the only way teams with half the revenue of the big revenue teams can compete.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Launch Angle said:

Ryan's value is extremely high right now and would bring in a haul of prospects. As much as I would hate to trade him, it's probably the right move since the Twins wont be competitive for the next 2 years. Even if Ryan pitches at a Cy Young level his value is irrelevant to a 60-70 win team.

There's a big risk to not trading Ryan right now. If he gets injured, which he's been prone to do, his value could plummet. They should just trade both him and Lopez which will make it even easier for me to stay away from Target field.

Step one has to be fire Falvey.   Who wants him making trade/team structure decisions over the off-season.

[Patzky]

If only the Pohlads could see the tangible results of a spike in attendance in Pablo Days. 😁

Honestly keeping the starters intact and spending money on relievers while bringing up prospects at every position would 1) be a recipe for many losses but at least a 'chance to win' three out of five games, and 2) be interesting fodder for the fan base. How would it play out .. drop Larnach Miranda Julien Gasper and Jeffers, cut to the bone. Cherry pick enough Saints and Wind Surgers (hell Winokur would be fun to watch play) plus your so called core of Buxton Lee Wallner (?) Martin(?)  Lewis (?) and Keaschall to fill a roster. But.. you've got ground ball pitchers in the pen now in front of a crummy infield defense. Keaschall at first? Royce? Maybe your battery is Pereda and Winkel to start out. The offensive output and defensive quality could not be a lot worse than what we have been seeing .

Rotation of Pablo Ryan Zebby Raya Ober. Pen of Abel Taj Sands Festa Ohl Morris Funderburk and a pickup or two.

Battery of Pereda and Cardenas. Would Vazquez agree to a $2 mil one year? TD fans have been banging the Eeles drum for awhile. Sabato? Holland? Culpeper? Only two of them need to shine next spring. Clemens is ok as a backup but not everyday. 

Outfield of Buxton Jenkins and Roden wouldn't be the worst thing ever. Wallner and Rosario with some reserve power or Martin as Willi 2026. 

If we bomb as badly by July as this year, then do your painful worst to the starters. But up until they're gone, they give the better chance to win a game or a series than a collection of randomly productive hitters. If anyone of Buxton Wallner or Lewis at all showed up last night, Pablo got a W.

[Major League Ready]

37 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Who else is going to hire Falvey or Rocco to run a team? 
 

I agree that the MLB revenue sharing model creates really bad incentives.

What are the chances the bottom revenue teams spend more if the top revenue teams did not share their revenue?

[Glorybound]

11 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Lopez was extended though age 31 season (same as the Twins have Ryan locked into) so that isn't close to the same thing.

Musgrave cost the Padres 5/100 and so far started 17, 19 an 0 games a year since. How is that working out for the San Diego? 

Sonny Gray's extension worked so well, The Reds traded Gray away, and there is no chance the Twins could get anything close to that kind of deal (3/30 with a 12 million club option (which the twins picked up) basically 4/42. 

So a terrible deal, a deal that is nothing like Ryan, and a bargain deal that the Twins have no chance at getting. 

I feel like people want Ryan extended so they can bitch about how much he makes when he is hurt or not as good. Like Twins fans do about any player and the money they are paid. 

 

 

No the Twins will not get any bargains on Ryan today. The time to extend him has long., long passed by two years. Likely he is traded this off season. Hopefully they don’t get a Johann Santana type of return.

[Exiled in Illinois]

Right now the state of the Twins is so, so, bleak.  I want to be positive, but all I feel about the organization at this point is disappointment and despair.

For this fan, knowing payroll is going to be limited, the only scenario that is going to keep me interested is one where Lopez and Ryan are kept, and a massive youth movement everywhere else where possible.  Larnach would need to be moved to make room.  Jenkins needs to play at majors everyday.  So does our next best outfield prospect.  Wallner to DH/fourth outfielder.  Best shortstop prospect gets a shot as our everyday shortstop.  Lewis at third, gets another shot.  keachall of course at second.  Lee is primary infield utility.  Best utility prospect gets second utility spot.  First base?  Who the hell knows, go with your best first base prospect.  Jeffers at catcher tutoring best catcher prospect, no matter how young.  Buxton in center.  If he ends up injured or wanting out (understandable), next best prospect.

Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Matthews, SWR, plus all that minor league depth as starters.  Sands and Topa get retained, Funderburk gets a chance to earn a spot.  Festa and Prileipp get their shots at the backend.  Next best minor league prospect gets another spot (Raya?).  Fill in the rest with minor leaguers/cheap vets.

That team could lose a lot of games, but would have a shot at being competative in a lot of games. and   I'd watch that team, even if loses a bunch.  Salary dumping Lopez and Ryan and replacing them with more youth probably would have me checking the box score the next day rather than watching.  Dumping them and replacing with a bunch of cheap vets/journeymen would have me checking in on them every week or two, at best.

Twins management, please, please, at least put an interesting team on the field next year.

[TwinsDr2021]

5 minutes ago, Glorybound said:

No the Twins will not get any bargains on Ryan today. The time to extend him has long., long passed by two years. Likely he is traded this off season. Hopefully they don’t get a Johann Santana type of return.

There was never a good time to extend Ryan, first mid market team should never extend anybody they have control of though age 31. Second was it after 22? his ERA in 23 was 4.51, then only started 23 games in 24. Was in after 23 when he just had an ERA of 4.51? was it after 24 when he had just started 23 games? Until this year he wasn't an all star or even gotten a Cy Young vote. 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

Can we at least try to field a winning product?

No.  The moment they traded away both Duran and Jax, winning in 2026 went out the window.  Not because of their special skills, but because it put in bright neon colors what the FO intends.

[DJL44]

21 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

What are the chances the bottom revenue teams spend more if the top revenue teams did not share their revenue?

There has to be revenue sharing. The Yankees and Dodgers need other teams to play to fill out a 162 game season and those teams are going to demand a cut of the revenue. How the revenue is shared matters. Right now the Twins only get 50% of the revenue for each additional ticket sold but they're 100% responsible for additional payroll. MLB needs to revamp it's revenue sharing to share more of the the media money (which comes from existing) and less of the attendance-generated money like parking, concessions, and ticket sales (which comes from winning).

[TNtwins85]

“The difference between an $85M payroll, a $115M payroll, and a $145M payroll becomes obvious when looking at the details. At $85M, the Twins likely need to cut further. At $115M, they can tread water, making modest additions. At $145M, they’d have up to $50M to shop, enough to chase one premium free agent or even multiple difference makers.”

Ok, this is a good baseline to see what payroll will be as it stands. Let’s just speculate that with the Pohlads debt being essentially paid off they could operate as a normal business. Let’s say they have $50M to “shop”. Who would they “shop” for? All the talk about spending money buying free agents yet is there anyone who is going to be a FA this off-season that anyone here would want to buy? What aging 30 something would everyone here be ok with giving $20M+ a year to? I know it sucks that the Pohlads didn t supplant the 2023 team. I was a staunch critic of “right sizing”. But after getting rid of an aging, declining, overpriced player everyone is gonna be mad that they don’t want to go buy another one? Money is great to have to supplant a roster that is close like in ‘23. That didn’t happen. I don’t want them to have a payroll of $170m right now. That means they bought a group of aging free agents who are soon to be overpriced. A very bad outcome as it doesn’t guarantee winning while guaranteeing being really really bad in 2 years when their top prospects are establishing themselves and they’re strapped by aging, expensive, underperforming players. A good outcome as I see it. The Twins do nothing. They say they want to annually “compete”. If that’s even remotely true they stand pat.

Baltimore calls because they’re window is open and they can’t repeat another underwhelming season. The Twins trade Joe Ryan and SWR for Adley Rutschman, Coby Mayo, Enrique Bradfield Jr. and Luis De Leon. They sign Devin Williams to a bounce back 1yr contract. After that they put they’re pitching development to work a turn 1-2 of all these young SP’s into RP’s. They don’t trade Lopez unless a team overwhelmes them which I doubt based on his contract and injury. Ryan will be the prize and if they trade him for impact bats that’s a win. Not spending a bunch of money on aging 30yo’s.

[Fatbat]

We have enough position player prospects to fill holes.  The biggest holes are 1B and back up catcher. Jeffers can catch 120 games and you start ‘26 with a veteran minor league backup not named mickey gasper.  Bring Tait up to AA and push him to AAA if he still hits. By July the kid could be brought to the show to learn from Jeffers. He is bat first and anything he contributes is a bonus. 

1B is probably where we could go shopping for a vet. get stability there instead of tinkering with puzzle pieces. 
 

Tons of kids to build an outfield and fill out the infield as needed. 
 

Bring in guys to compete for a bullpen spot. Find the next hoffman and Coloumbe. The pool is full of those guys and they are cheap. So is Preillip, Adams, Raya and any other kid. The bullpen wont be the mess that it is now. 
 

5 healthy capable SP ‘s starts by having 8-10 available between AAA and MLB. We have an abundance of that. Don’t mess with it.  

I can only assume that there was a plan of attack at selloff time to keep enough assets in order to reset starting in ‘26. Its not a big deal to throw ‘25 away if you can add assets before spring training ‘26 and end up better, younger/stronger to reopen the competitive window as quick as possible.  
I believe MLB made the A’s spend more to keep from being penalized for dumping salary continuously. They should do the same with the Twins. The league should have a minimum salary. Its good for everyone in the game. 
 

whoever invested in the Twins didn't do it to own and watch a crappy team. They did it for a return both monetary and ego driven.  
Everyone should expect payroll to not go lower than this baseline.  Bring in whoever needs to be in order to be competitive and let some kids have a chance at the show in ‘26. The minors are  stacked with them. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The really good news: heading into ‘28, the Twins should have an unbelievably talented young, cheap and controllable core both on the field and on the mound AND the team will be forced to augment that core with new FAs required by the new minimum annual spend decreed in the new CBA.  Oh, and Rocco should be long gone by then too.

The odds of them having a core capable of competing without any holdovers from the previous good team are pretty long.  Taking nothing away from our prospects (even though some won’t make it), it’s just too many players to have hit the mark all at the same time.  Hence, my reluctance to trade off Lopez & Ryan and absolutely stink up the joint for the next couple of years. Those young pitchers will develop better with a little bit more mentoring going on.  

[Major League Ready]

2 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

The odds of them having a core capable of competing without any holdovers from the previous good team are pretty long.  Taking nothing away from our prospects (even though some won’t make it), it’s just too many players to have hit the mark all at the same time.  Hence, my reluctance to trade off Lopez & Ryan and absolutely stink up the joint for the next couple of years. Those young pitchers will develop better with a little bit more mentoring going on.  

Was the previous team a "good team".  We had a good BP and two good SPs.  1B was covered by mediocre free agents.  3B and SS were under performing players (Lewis/Correa)  The OF was a couple mediocre corners OFers and Buxton.  Keaschall is part of the next generation.  Getting rid of Correa helps a little for budget but we are not going to fix our position player problems unless the next wave is the answer.

If we are talking about their odds in 28, given Lopez and Ryan would be free agents, are our odds better with the haul we will get from those two players, plus all of the players we picked up at the deadline than if we had stayed the course with the team we had and tried to augment it.  If that augmentation was anything other than a spending the $23m from Correa, that would take significant assets away from 28 and beyond.  The difference in post 27 teams can only be projected but that projection is far better than if we stayed on the previous course.  So, we can stink it up for a year or two now or several years post 2027.

[Glorybound]

34 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

There was never a good time to extend Ryan, first mid market team should never extend anybody they have control of though age 31. Second was it after 22? his ERA in 23 was 4.51, then only started 23 games in 24. Was in after 23 when he just had an ERA of 4.51? was it after 24 when he had just started 23 games? Until this year he wasn't an all star or even gotten a Cy Young vote. 

So I get it the only way to determine value of a young promising starting pitcher is ERA. Your logic follows the gm and ownership well. The progression Ryan has made is more than a stat line will ever measure. Look inside an individual and see the competitive nature they have and little bit at someone’s ability to learn and improve. Statistics are nice but sometimes winners are necessary to acquire if you want a winning team. Joe Ryan has the makeup to be a winner for whichever team he plays for.

[thelanges5]

The Pohlads have even ruined this exercise. Hard to think about anything other than bare bones payroll and trading more guys. Would be nice if we had a sense of their vision or who the limited partners are. We just witnessed the Twins and White Sox trading places and that sucks!

[Mahoning]

So many commenters seem to have forgotten that Derek Falvey promised that the selloff was the beginning of "the next big push." I can't remember the last big push, but maybe that's just me. 

[Dave Borton]

3 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

...Trading Lopez and Ryan makes it even worse and might put us in Colorado Rockies territory...

I see this as a done deal. They are banking/tanking on a lost year of '27, another year of no-service time while developing at AA and AAA levels, and high draft positioning.

All the while raiding '26 revenue sharing and positioning for a "Detroit" kind of thing beginning in '28.

[wavedog]

I am realistically hoping for a player budget of $115 for 2026 - investing in some position player and bullpen help.  Obviously love a higher budget to get a big bat (maybe at 1B, or RH OF)  and several dependable bullpen pieces but don't think any chance of that happening.    

[Russ]

Part 1

 

Act like a major league franchise or get out

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Exiled in Illinois said:

Right now the state of the Twins is so, so, bleak.  I want to be positive, but all I feel about the organization at this point is disappointment and despair.

For this fan, knowing payroll is going to be limited, the only scenario that is going to keep me interested is one where Lopez and Ryan are kept, and a massive youth movement everywhere else where possible.  Larnach would need to be moved to make room.  Jenkins needs to play at majors everyday.  So does our next best outfield prospect.  Wallner to DH/fourth outfielder.  Best shortstop prospect gets a shot as our everyday shortstop.  Lewis at third, gets another shot.  keachall of course at second.  Lee is primary infield utility.  Best utility prospect gets second utility spot.  First base?  Who the hell knows, go with your best first base prospect.  Jeffers at catcher tutoring best catcher prospect, no matter how young.  Buxton in center.  If he ends up injured or wanting out (understandable), next best prospect.

Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Matthews, SWR, plus all that minor league depth as starters.  Sands and Topa get retained, Funderburk gets a chance to earn a spot.  Festa and Prileipp get their shots at the backend.  Next best minor league prospect gets another spot (Raya?).  Fill in the rest with minor leaguers/cheap vets.

That team could lose a lot of games, but would have a shot at being competative in a lot of games. and   I'd watch that team, even if loses a bunch.  Salary dumping Lopez and Ryan and replacing them with more youth probably would have me checking the box score the next day rather than watching.  Dumping them and replacing with a bunch of cheap vets/journeymen would have me checking in on them every week or two, at best.

Twins management, please, please, at least put an interesting team on the field next year.

Pablo and Ryan give a chance at a win most times. Maybe Zebby is on that path too. Keep your win tickets and let the kids play.

[DJL44]

52 minutes ago, Dave Borton said:

I see this as a done deal. They are banking/tanking on a lost year of '27, 

I really hope the owners aren’t planning on sabotaging their product by accelerating the decline of MLB with a lockout.

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Was the previous team a "good team".  We had a good BP and two good SPs.  1B was covered by mediocre free agents.  3B and SS were under performing players (Lewis/Correa)  The OF was a couple mediocre corners OFers and Buxton.  Keaschall is part of the next generation.  Getting rid of Correa helps a little for budget but we are not going to fix our position player problems unless the next wave is the answer.

If we are talking about their odds in 28, given Lopez and Ryan would be free agents, are our odds better with the haul we will get from those two players, plus all of the players we picked up at the deadline than if we had stayed the course with the team we had and tried to augment it.  If that augmentation was anything other than a spending the $23m from Correa, that would take significant assets away from 28 and beyond.  The difference in post 27 teams can only be projected but that projection is far better than if we stayed on the previous course.  So, we can stink it up for a year or two now or several years post 2027.

Correct.  There is a 0% chance that Ryan or Lopez (or Jeffers or Ober for that matter) are extended/resigned to play for the Twins in ‘28 or beyond. Nada.  Zilch.  They are all gone. And given major league baseball is unlikely to be played much at all in ‘27, we only have them really for next year - which is essentially a throw away year.  Heck, they probably don’t want to sign here anyway.  Ryan most certainly wants out as soon as possible. 

The smart move - strategically and financially - is to trade them this off season. Build for ‘28 both with prospects and financial capacity. 

[Dave Borton]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I really hope the owners aren’t planning on sabotaging their product by accelerating the decline of MLB with a lockout.

Not sure. They are wealthy, successful business owners. I am sure they have plans 1-5 to deal with the Players' Association plans 1-5.

Stay tuned.

[Riverbrian]

Just now, Dave Borton said:

Not sure. They are wealthy, successful business owners. I am sure they have plans 1-5 to deal with the Players' Association plans 1-5.

Stay tuned.

Great article. Necessary article. 

I've been looking hard at the budget. I honestly don't know what I would do going forward.

I'm not sure they should spend a dime until a younger group of players show themselves.

At the same time... I'm not sure they should be deepening this rebuild by trading Ryan and Lopez because the rotation has the potential to get them back to where we need them to be quicker than most of us imagine.