Payroll 101: Where the Twins’ 2026 Budget Starts (and Could Go)

[PDX Twin]

5 hours ago, Launch Angle said:

They should just trade both him and Lopez which will make it even easier for me to stay away from Target field.

That's the downside of trading them, from an economic point of view. Having the potential of a competitive game 40% of the time might reduce the decline in gate and advertising revenue next year. Otherwise, we are likely in for Oakland-sized "crowds" next year.

[Mike Sixel]

6 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

Understood, but what's the point? To save money? To acquire prospects? Which, or both? 
The damn point of any organization should be to win. Joe helps us win, and he is of substantially more value than his contract. Let's see if we can win with him first next year, if not, then we still get a tremendous haul next summer, and the acquiring team can have him and lock him up. I want to field a winning product. We have a lot of prospects already.

It's a business. The point is to make money. Winning is a bonus. 

I expect Ryan and Ober to be dealt. And Larnach not to be on the roster somehow. 

[Twinsrtheworst]

I could be wrong, but I was always under the assumption that payroll was based on the previous seasons revenue.  I know it was in multiple articles here on TD a few years back.  Part of revenue is based on attendance and TV/Streaming  revenue.  In 2023 and 2024 payrolls exceeded most of our expectations and I’m sure exceeded the designated percentage of revenue.  The Streaming money went down, the viewership when down, and the attendance went down.  Even in 2023 attendance was not good in my opinion considering we were a competitive and fun team and couldn’t sell out home playoff games..  Considering the Twins revenue really dropped this year, Going off history, yes I’d expect payroll to drop again for next season.  I expect most organizations also follow the same structure.  Yes there are outliers.  As a fan I hate it,  But will make the best of it I guess.  Were I live out of state it’s mostly relocated Yankee fans.  They all are amazed of my stubborn loyalty to the Twins, considering I wasn’t born there.  I’ve been told I should seek professional help, sarcastically I think. Loyalty is one of my best qualities, but in this case it may be my worst trait.  

[old nurse]

6 hours ago, Rufus said:

Don't the Twins have to pay a portion of Correa's contract also?   Should be included in the overall list?  For $4.5 mil. I would surely consider keeping Larnach.  He keeps showing signs of breaking out  and living up to his potential.  They definitely need a new manager next year.  Baldelli just doesn't seem to have the team laying for him.

 

6 hours ago, DJL44 said:

They will make about $35-$40M more profit by losing.

It's included - "Other".

Other is listed as .80 million. Sportrac has the Twins retaining 10 million,  The other could be the salaries of anyone on the 40 man roster who are in the minors who have played in the majors as their salaries are higher and count in luxury tax computations. Or it could just be anticipating a rookie making the team 

[DocBauer]

Who knows with this ownership? They escalate payroll and talk about a new era, and then tear it down.

But a couple of points:

1] The new minority owners buy-in pretty much eliminates the borrowed debt. The books are clean.

2] As pointed out in the OP, ownership gave the FO about $15M "extra" to play with, though the bump came late.

3] I don't see them keeping Larnach. Not with Roden just acquired, and top prospects Rodriguez and Jenkins about ready to debut. And, of course, they still have Wallner. There's also some interesting RH OF options really close. So Larnach is moved...possibly in a package with a prospect...for whatever they can get.

That puts the payroll at approximately $90M WITH Lopez and Ryan. 

In my personal plan, Josh Naylor is brought on to fill 1B and provide a veteran in the lineup and lockerroom. $15M?

Payroll is only $105M

I love the idea of Coulombe back for one more season. He was phenomenal all year in his 1 out or 1 inning role. $3M?

Payroll is still only $108M.

They just aren't going to spend a lot on the pen. They'll have a couple "leftovers", a couple starter conversions, and they'll bring in fliers trying to find the next Stewart/Thielbar/Wisler/etc. Some will be invites, but a couple will be 40 man additions. More than likely guys coming off injuries or recovery seasons, or just down years. But probably all on 1yr make good deals. 2 or 3 at $2-3M each maximum. That's another $6-$9M. Let's go with the high number. (Too early to speculate names with the season still running).

Payroll is now $117M.

Jeffers needs a backup. They just don't have one. And like with some pen fliers, it's hard to speculate an actual name until the season is over. But approximately $3M should bring in a decent option. (My brain thinks Diaz who signed for about that last year).

Payroll sits around $120M, which is $10M less than this current season. In addition to Keaschall, you've got a handful of top/very solid prospects ready to debut. You still have your rotation intact, with even more depth and options. And you go to camp with about 14 arms to build the pen between returnees, converted starters, MILB invites from in and out of the system, and 3-4 rostered FA signings.

You're not not going to rebuild the pen overnight. But can you put a respectable one together? A couple guys rebounding and the prospects rising...(better team speed and defense)...I think you can squint and see a better team/record in 2026 vs this season.

 

[tony&rodney]

29 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

1] The new minority owners buy-in pretty much eliminates the borrowed debt. The books are clean.

Where has that been definitively stated? Many people have posited this. I have not watched a press conference or read about one in where the Pohlad family states that the investments from "partners" has eliminated the debt. In fact, I have not read that the limited partners/investors have yet been given the ok by MLB. Surely this would have been announced and published. Has it? As far as I know zero dollars have actually flowed into any coffers related to the Minnesota Twins Baseball Club L.L.C. 

I feel like the partner/investors deal will actually occur. But I also feel like this is not too far off from the Ishbia news back in February or whenever it was. 

I sort of feel the Pohlad family will sell the team before the 2026 season begins.

The budget is a total guess at this time. Nobody should be surprised by an opening 26 person payroll for the 2026 season to fall well below $75 million. My guess is as crazy as every other wild thought. Since we are throwing out numbers, I will take $85 million. But hey, if the Pohlads want to spend $125-200 million ..... great. Just give me some good, well-played baseball. Maybe the outfielders will even hit the cutoff and throw to the correct base too.

[DocBauer]

49 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Where has that been definitively stated? Many people have posited this. I have not watched a press conference or read about one in where the Pohlad family states that the investments from "partners" has eliminated the debt. In fact, I have not read that the limited partners/investors have yet been given the ok by MLB. Surely this would have been announced and published. Has it? As far as I know zero dollars have actually flowed into any coffers related to the Minnesota Twins Baseball Club L.L.C. 

I feel like the partner/investors deal will actually occur. But I also feel like this is not too far off from the Ishbia news back in February or whenever it was. 

I sort of feel the Pohlad family will sell the team before the 2026 season begins.

The budget is a total guess at this time. Nobody should be surprised by an opening 26 person payroll for the 2026 season to fall well below $75 million. My guess is as crazy as every other wild thought. Since we are throwing out numbers, I will take $85 million. But hey, if the Pohlads want to spend $125-200 million ..... great. Just give me some good, well-played baseball. Maybe the outfielders will even hit the cutoff and throw to the correct base too.

It was reported that the % of the team purchased...and we don't know how much yet...was based on the full price of the team. Meaning share were based on a $1.7B value price.

And while I don't recall the exact quote, it was stated that this new $ would go towards paying down the debt.

[The Great Hambino]

4 hours ago, PDX Twin said:

That's the downside of trading them, from an economic point of view. Having the potential of a competitive game 40% of the time might reduce the decline in gate and advertising revenue next year. Otherwise, we are likely in for Oakland-sized "crowds" next year.

They're not drawing anyone with both of them in the rotation now.  Why would that be any different next year?

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, The Great Hambino said:

They're not drawing anyone with both of them in the rotation now.  Why would that be any different next year?

Most predictive thing for ticket sales is the previous year's record, which is going to be awful. They'll lose about ten to twenty percent from this year I'd guess. I have no idea how anyone thinks they'll draw enough more people in their 25 home starts, between the both of them, make a big enough difference to pay their salary. 

[Fatbat]

3 hours ago, DocBauer said:

It was reported that the % of the team purchased...and we don't know how much yet...was based on the full price of the team. Meaning share were based on a $1.7B value price.

And while I don't recall the exact quote, it was stated that this new $ would go towards paying down the debt.

So the Pohlads basically paid off the creditors by selling part of the future profit/loss to 2 investor groups. I have heard of some where in the $450M range total. 

[mikelink45]

To save More money I heard that the team was going to make the bat boy start buying a ticket to the game.  

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

So the Pohlads basically paid off the creditors by selling part of the future profit/loss to 2 investor groups. I have heard of some where in the $450M range total. 

Correct. Now, whether or not they pay off the entire debt or just a chunk of it who knows. Maybe they keep a little of the debt on the books for tax credits of some sort and pocket some cash, or invest it elsewhere, who knows.

But the payroll shouldn't be affected by the debt at this point. And while I/we have no idea how much of a say the new minority owners have...if any...I don't know that they are in favor of seeing the payroll for their new investment being cut down further.

It's part of the reason I see some $ being added to the payroll and no further cuts.

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, DocBauer said:

It was reported that the % of the team purchased...and we don't know how much yet...was based on the full price of the team. Meaning share were based on a $1.7B value price.

And while I don't recall the exact quote, it was stated that this new $ would go towards paying down the debt.

Yes, all speculation which may come to fruition. For now, it is nothing. I never doubted that it was reported, but no announcements of names, etc. Remember also that it was also reported that the names would be released in 10-14 days. That was around a month ago.

We can wait for certainty.

[High heat]

I can honestly seem them in the 80 Million range.  
 

Pablo traded.

Ryan traded.

Jeffers traded.

Larnach DFA.  
 

Thats 35 million of the books.   Then they  go out and spend 25 million to finish out the roster bringing in 2 catchers,  a glove first SS, journeyman SP and filling out the bullpen possibly a veteran cheap 1B. 
 

Thats puts us squarely in the 60 win mark, and the Pohlads can share the revenue share $ with there new investors.

[DocBauer]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

Yes, all speculation which may come to fruition. For now, it is nothing. I never doubted that it was reported, but no announcements of names, etc. Remember also that it was also reported that the names would be released in 10-14 days. That was around a month ago.

We can wait for certainty.

I don't recall any dates mentioned in regards to disclosure of who the new partners are. You might be right, I just recall hearing that.

The new minority owners and the deal must still be approved by MLB. I believe it then becomes public record, even if they don't make a formal announcement. I'd just guess MLB is just taking their time and doing due diligence at the moment.

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I don't recall any dates mentioned in regards to disclosure of who the new partners are. You might be right, I just recall hearing that.

The new minority owners and the deal must still be approved by MLB. I believe it then becomes public record, even if they don't make a formal announcement. I'd just guess MLB is just taking their time and doing due diligence at the moment.

Yes, nothing is official or complete which is why it is best to wait to hear the details before assigning actions to new money or any other guesstimates. No money has been moved. Again, it took longer than a month (IIRC) for the Ishbia rumors to get corrected. I'm willing to wait for such time when the Twins hold a press conference if and when any deals are completed.

[TNtwins85]

20 hours ago, Glorybound said:

So I get it the only way to determine value of a young promising starting pitcher is ERA. Your logic follows the gm and ownership well. The progression Ryan has made is more than a stat line will ever measure. Look inside an individual and see the competitive nature they have and little bit at someone’s ability to learn and improve. Statistics are nice but sometimes winners are necessary to acquire if you want a winning team. Joe Ryan has the makeup to be a winner for whichever team he plays for.

Also, ERA is a poor way to measure success. I don’t think they should resign him though. 

[DJL44]

12 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Most predictive thing for ticket sales is the previous year's record, which is going to be awful. They'll lose about ten to twenty percent from this year I'd guess. I have no idea how anyone thinks they'll draw enough more people in their 25 home starts, between the both of them, make a big enough difference to pay their salary. 

They're going to need to have Nelly show up every week.

[rdehring]

Excellent article, John.  Am out of town so got to it a day late.

I see the normal gripping about the owners and level of payroll.  Haven't the Brewers taught us anything?  It isn't how much payroll you have, it's what you do with it.  

Thanks to Correa, beginning next year they will likely have both a smaller payroll and more free dollars to spend than the past several years.  It's what they do with it that will dictate what the team does in 2026.  Unfortunately, at least for me I don't have a lot of confidence in the guys making those decisions.  Like most Twins fans, I will be hoping they surprise me.  Heck, change that comment to "shock me."

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 9/6/2025 at 7:53 AM, shimrod said:

This is my expectation, at least until a new CBA. Ryan, Lopez, Larnach and possibly Jeffers gone. Those clamoring to see the kids brought up will get their wish. 

Falvey and Rocco will be retained if only to keep from paying two salaries at those positions. 

I expect payroll to settle somewhere in the  low 60s. 

We’ve seen the Pohlads do this before. Everyone with the laugh emoji doesn’t remember the late 90s/early aughts.

25 players at 800,000 plus Buxton at 15m and Correa’s 10m dead money isn’t out of the realm of possibility at $45m.

the team John constructed, the one we are currently watching, is going to win at most 72 games this season, and next year is an easy 100 to 110 loss team. That would alienate the fanbase even more than it already is.

they aren’t loading up for a post season push heading into a lockout after the fire sale.

If you’re alienating the fans already, why wouldn’t the Pohlads just finish the tear down?

I hope I’m wrong and the new minority owners change the direction of the team, but I just don’t see it.

:(

[twinstalker]

9 hours ago, shimrod said:

This is my expectation, at least until a new CBA. Ryan, Lopez, Larnach and possibly Jeffers gone. Those clamoring to see the kids brought up will get their wish.

There's only Jenkins, and he's independent of most of the mess going forward.  There are some pitchers who are clearly not ready.  There are a bunch of hitters who will not be anything ever, and a couple where the jury is still out. Basically, there is only Jenkins, who's coming up no matter what happens next year (barring injury).  Nothing to clamor for

[Western SD Fan]

On 9/6/2025 at 10:03 AM, Fatbat said:

I believe MLB made the A’s spend more to keep from being penalized for dumping salary continuously. They should do the same with the Twins

I'm glad someone mentioned the MLB and the potential grievance that will come from the MLBPA if the Twins drop payroll too far.  I can see a grievance being filed if the Twins drop payroll to the $75-$85 million range as they would have dropped payroll 41-48% from the previous year of approximately $145 million.  It will be just too much of a drop without anyone asking too many questions.  I also think this would be a poor business decision as they can't go into the next CBA crying poor and demanding a salary cap when it appears that they refuse to field a competitive roster and doesn't appear like they are even trying to field one (MLBPA filing a grievance).  I see 2026 as a rebuilding year where a lot of young players will get a chance to see whether they sink or swim as they wade out the season and prepare for an owner's lockout after the season ends.  That likely means a payroll of somewhere between $100-$110 million.  They're trying to be cheap, but not so cheap they attract attention outside of Twins Territory.

 

[tony&rodney]

26 minutes ago, Western SD Fan said:

I'm glad someone mentioned the MLB and the potential grievance that will come from the MLBPA if the Twins drop payroll too far.  I can see a grievance being filed if the Twins drop payroll to the $75-$85 million range as they would have dropped payroll 41-48% from the previous year of approximately $145 million.  It will be just too much of a drop without anyone asking too many questions.  I also think this would be a poor business decision as they can't go into the next CBA crying poor and demanding a salary cap when it appears that they refuse to field a competitive roster and doesn't appear like they are even trying to field one (MLBPA filing a grievance).  I see 2026 as a rebuilding year where a lot of young players will get a chance to see whether they sink or swim as they wade out the season and prepare for an owner's lockout after the season ends.  That likely means a payroll of somewhere between $100-$110 million.  They're trying to be cheap, but not so cheap they attract attention outside of Twins Territory.

 

The A's took money for years without spending. Someone will look this up, but I think a team has to offend for 3 years. The Twins can drop their payroll without consequences in 2026. The Marlins, Rays, and Pirates are all currently in a range the Twins could be in 2026 ($65-85M). None of those teams has been asked to spend.

[Chembry]

10 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The A's took money for years without spending. Someone will look this up, but I think a team has to offend for 3 years. The Twins can drop their payroll without consequences in 2026. The Marlins, Rays, and Pirates are all currently in a range the Twins could be in 2026 ($65-85M). None of those teams has been asked to spend.

I don't know about offending for 3 years, but the CBA states that teams must spend 150% of their revenue sharing dollars on MLB payroll.  A quick google search says a grievance can be filed for any action violating the CBA.  No time requirement as far as I can tell.

Nobody knows how much the Twins receive, but it was speculated that the A's received or were to receive $70M (100% of their revenue sharing dollars) in 2025.  The A's only received 25% in 2022, 50% in 2023, and 75% in 2024 which is one of the reasons (probably many others) they didn't spend as much.   

https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Articles/2024/12/09/mlb-athletics-payroll-spending/

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/athletics-risk-mlbpa-grievance-without-further-payroll-increases.html

[In My La Z boy]

On 9/6/2025 at 3:15 PM, Mike Sixel said:

It's a business. The point is to make money. Winning is a bonus. 

I expect Ryan and Ober to be dealt. And Larnach not to be on the roster somehow. 

This is my point. In my business, and I presume others, when I put out winning products, I sell more, and make more money. This idiotic business model we're stuck with has to change. Why can't teams be have the same type of incentives as a lot of players? Financial incentives, or dis-incentives to win. Team money for winning. .500 record = 10m Wild Card = 20M Division Title = 30M League Championship = 50M World Series = 100M 
If we're never going to have a salary cap/minimum or a percentage of revenue model, then we need to reward winning and punish losing somehow.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

This is my point. In my business, and I presume others, when I put out winning products, I sell more, and make more money. This idiotic business model we're stuck with has to change. Why can't teams be have the same type of incentives as a lot of players? Financial incentives, or dis-incentives to win. Team money for winning. .500 record = 10m Wild Card = 20M Division Title = 30M League Championship = 50M World Series = 100M 
If we're never going to have a salary cap/minimum or a percentage of revenue model, then we need to reward winning and punish losing somehow.

Teams do get a windfall for making the playoffs but that isn't as predictable as cutting payroll below $100M.

[LA Vikes Fan]

On 9/6/2025 at 8:44 PM, DocBauer said:

Correct. Now, whether or not they pay off the entire debt or just a chunk of it who knows. Maybe they keep a little of the debt on the books for tax credits of some sort and pocket some cash, or invest it elsewhere, who knows.

But the payroll shouldn't be affected by the debt at this point. And while I/we have no idea how much of a say the new minority owners have...if any...I don't know that they are in favor of seeing the payroll for their new investment being cut down further.

It's part of the reason I see some $ being added to the payroll and no further cuts.

None of us know what is going to happen, but this is a possibility. The debt service on $425m (?) in debt is pretty significant cash flow drain. If in fact the new "limited partners" investment eliminates the debt, that should free up more cash flow for operations. There is at least a chance that the new investors actually are in it to be part of a winning experience, not just private equity people looking to maximize profit. We may know more when the investors names are released assuming the investment actually happens. The worst may happen, but we shouldn't just assume it will. 

By the way, I saw in an earlier comment that the 2023 playoff games were not sellouts. Is that right? How can that be? If this team cannot draw well enough to sell out playoff games in a 39,500 seat stadium there is something seriously wrong. I'm not aware of serious economic problems in the area, but maybe I'm uniformed, and I totally understand not supporting this year's team. Still, not drawing 2 million fans over 81 home dates for a good team in 2023 or a good for half the season team in 2024 is a real red flag. I'm sure it will be even worse this year, as it should be. Not sure what the problem is but it really hampers this team from investing. It also makes the players wonder if going somewhere else where they will be better supported is a better call (see Duran's comments about how much fun the atmosphere in Philly is). Don't get me wrong, I'm not necessarily blaming the fans when I see how well the Vikes are supported. Still, something is really wrong when you can't draw an average of 25,000 people a game and can't sell out playoff games.   

[RpR]

2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

None of us know what is going to happen, but this is a possibility. The debt service on $425m (?) in debt is pretty significant cash flow drain. If in fact the new "limited partners" investment eliminates the debt, that should free up more cash flow for operations. There is at least a chance that the new investors actually are in it to be part of a winning experience, not just private equity people looking to maximize profit. We may know more when the investors names are released assuming the investment actually happens. The worst may happen, but we shouldn't just assume it will. 

By the way, I saw in an earlier comment that the 2023 playoff games were not sellouts. Is that right? How can that be? If this team cannot draw well enough to sell out playoff games in a 39,500 seat stadium there is something seriously wrong. I'm not aware of serious economic problems in the area, but maybe I'm uniformed, and I totally understand not supporting this year's team. Still, not drawing 2 million fans over 81 home dates for a good team in 2023 or a good for half the season team in 2024 is a real red flag. I'm sure it will be even worse this year, as it should be. Not sure what the problem is but it really hampers this team from investing. It also makes the players wonder if going somewhere else where they will be better supported is a better call (see Duran's comments about how much fun the atmosphere in Philly is). Don't get me wrong, I'm not necessarily blaming the fans when I see how well the Vikes are supported. Still, something is really wrong when you can't draw an average of 25,000 people a game and can't sell out playoff games.   

Twin Cities television sports talking heads, speak of the Viking 12 months a year; they barely speak of the Twins during the baseball season.

THAT is one thing that props up the Viqueens.