Carlos Correa Trade Rumors Put Minnesota Twins on a Slippery Slope

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

 

With hours until the trade deadline, rumors surrounding Carlos Correa’s potential return to Houston have picked up steam. Reports from multiple outlets confirm that the Astros have reached out to the Twins to gauge interest in a deal. Correa reportedly would be willing to waive his no-trade clause to return to Houston, and the Twins believe that the Astros are perhaps the only club that could convince him to do so.

The talks, according to The Athletic’s Dan Hayes and Chandler Rome, are not close to reaching a resolution. But even the existence of the conversation raises significant questions for a franchise already fighting battles on multiple fronts. The Twins are trying to maintain credibility with their fanbase, relevance in a disappointing season, and respect from star players around the league. Trading Correa now might undercut all three.

Echoes of the Donaldson Deal
It is impossible not to see the parallels between Correa’s situation and Josh Donaldson’s exit a few years ago. The Twins signed Donaldson to the largest free agent deal in franchise history at the time, only to trade him away before the contract ran its course. They were able to offload the deal to the Yankees and use the money saved to help bring Correa in as the face of the next competitive window.

But if Minnesota turns around and does the same thing again, it sends a message to future free agents: even if the Twins step up to sign a star, they might not be committed long-term. The front office can point to Donaldson's age or Correa’s drop in power, but the optics remain difficult. If the Twins move on from another marquee name before the contract fully vests, it could chill future negotiations with top-tier free agents.

Minnesota already has trouble luring top names to the Twin Cities. Geography, market size, and weather are often cited as reasons players look elsewhere. Stability and reputation matter when a player considers long-term deals. If the Twins develop a reputation as a revolving door for high-priced veterans, it will only compound the issue.

Reading Between the Rumors
Correa has not had a monster season, but he has shown signs of returning to form. After a slow start, he has hit .300 over his last 274 plate appearances. His power numbers are down, due in part to a career-high ground ball rate, but his bat remains productive and his glove remains solid. At 30 years old, Correa still holds value, even with the large contract attached.

The Astros are reportedly serious in their pursuit. Injuries to Isaac Paredes and Jeremy Peña have left them with a need on the infield, and Houston owner Jim Crane remains a fan of Correa’s, even years after his departure. Bringing him back would push the Astros over the luxury tax threshold, something Crane has resisted in the past, but sentiment and urgency might tip the balance.

Correa has four years remaining after this season on his six-year, $200 million contract, with vesting options that could make the deal longer and even more expensive. To make a trade work, the Twins would almost certainly need to eat a portion of the money owed. That reality puts added pressure on the front office to decide if the savings and whatever prospects might come in return are worth the reputational hit.

The Bigger Picture
For Minnesota, the Correa decision comes at a moment of organizational uncertainty. The club is under .500 with little hope of making a playoff push. The Pohlad family is exploring a sale with no clear deadline in sight. A new owner might want payroll flexibility, or they might want star power. Either way, trading away the team’s highest-paid player before year three of a six-year deal sets a clear tone, whether the team intends it or not.

There is also the fan perspective to consider. Correa is one of the most recognizable players on the roster and has consistently praised the organization. Moving him while he is still a capable contributor could alienate a portion of the fanbase already frustrated with the team’s up-and-down results and budget-conscious decisions.

Walking the Line
The Twins are not wrong to consider every possibility at the deadline. This is a team that needs to be strategic, not sentimental. But there is a fine line between a smart baseball decision and one that damages the team’s standing with players and fans alike.

If the Twins trade Correa, they had better be sure of the return. Because if it echoes the Donaldson move without the benefit of a corresponding leap forward, the long-term cost could stretch well beyond the numbers on a payroll sheet.

Should the Twins consider trading Correa? What are the long-term ramifications of dumping his contract? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

 

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[glunn]

I believe that Correa is fading fast and this would be a good move even if the Twins have to eat some of his salary.  I also don't see this as discouraging prospective free agents, because Correa would be approving the reunion with his old team.  Arguably the Twins would be doing him a favor by allowing him an opportunity to get another ring.

[DJL44]

What's the downside for the free agent? "If it doesn't work out we'll trade you to a better team" isn't a big problem for most players.

[shimrod]

The damage to player and fan relations is already done. The payroll cut to a playoff team and failure to broadcast locally were killers. 

Moving Correa will have minimal impact on fans. As for players, Twins were already shopping on the FA reject pile. We're not outbidding anyone for FA difference makers with this management group.

Correa would be a luxury on this team even if he was playing to his salary. Moving him is necessary to beginning the rebuild this team desperately needs.

[gman]

I think the Pollads would be doing the "new" owners a big favor by trading Correa and taking the heat for it. The new owners could then say they weren't the ones who traded him. But if the team is going to reduce the payroll,

Correa has to be traded and the best place to get him to accept is probably Houston. The Dodgers and Dodger fans would never take him. The Yankees might and maybe the Mets.

Instead of eating money the Twins might throw in Larnach to give the Astro's the lefthanded outfielder they want. I wonder what that trade would look like.

[Eris]

The Twins are right to consider trading Correa (and most other players—except their better starting pitchers). As the roster is currently constructed, the Twins do not have a good team and need to upgrade at multiple positions. They are — with only a few exceptions— slow, nonathletic, and play poor defense. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

14 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

What's the downside for the free agent? "If it doesn't work out we'll trade you to a better team" isn't a big problem for most players.

Kind of exactly this. The player still got paid right?

[shimrod]

10 minutes ago, gman said:

Instead of eating money the Twins might throw in Larnach to give the Astro's the lefthanded outfielder they want.

Shedding player assets in lieu of money is likely ownerships preference. I think the Twins would need to send more than Larnach to get the 'stros to eat that entire contract.

[NYCTK]

17 minutes ago, gman said:

and maybe the Mets.

100% not 

[Whitey333]

Should they consider trading Correa?  Of course.  This team is a train wreck.  Will they trade Correa?  Very unlikely especially by the trade deadline.  Slightly better chance during the off season but still unlikely.  Worry about the organizations reputation?  Come on how silly and far fetching is that?  Let's face the fact that it's already been tarnished by so many instances it won't matter.  Personally I hope they do trade him for something reasonable.  He has almost become a bust.  He certainly hasn't played up to superstar status during his Twins career.  But reality is i don't think he's being traded at this time.

[dxpavelka]

The only thing Twins fans hate more than the team not spending money is the team spending money.  And now, seemingly, the only thing the like less than complaining about the performance of t he players the team spends money on is trading the players they spend money on.  

[NYCTK]

With respect to player relations, I'm more concerned about Griffin Jax and every player's relationship with the skipper. 

Not only did they refuse to give him a tryout for the rotation, but then yesterday's bullpen management clearly had Jax very annoyed, to say the least. 

Jax almost has to be traded, a disgruntled employee isn't one you wanna keep around if you're already determined to make changes. 

[Patzky]

2 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

With respect to player relations, I'm more concerned about Griffin Jax and every player's relationship with the skipper. 

Not only did they refuse to give him a tryout for the rotation, but then yesterday's bullpen management clearly had Jax very annoyed, to say the least. 

Jax almost has to be traded, a disgruntled employee isn't one you wanna keep around if you're already determined to make changes. 

The post game talk (Correa was also included btw) with Rocco saw Jax and Rocco burying whatever hatchet there.was, Rocco said that when the lead got to a certain point the position player became an option, and that thirty pitches (analytics!) was what they wanted him to throw. I don't think Rocco is clever enough to lie on the fly like that but the events also show that 1) Jax shouldn't be brought in in such situations, Rocco admitted as much and 2) Dude is just not a bulldog when things go south. If I had to pick a closer mentality from who is left I'd go with Beefsteak.

[Patzky]

44 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

With respect to player relations, I'm more concerned about Griffin Jax and every player's relationship with the skipper. 

Not only did they refuse to give him a tryout for the rotation, but then yesterday's bullpen management clearly had Jax very annoyed, to say the least. 

Jax almost has to be traded, a disgruntled employee isn't one you wanna keep around if you're already determined to make changes. 

If TD didn't like what we got for Duran there's no way they will like what we get for Jax.

[CRF]

I'd be shocked if they somehow work out a trade for CC. I just don't see it happening. 

[Coach Wheels]

15 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

The only thing Twins fans hate more than the team not spending money is the team spending money.  And now, seemingly, the only thing the like less than complaining about the performance of t he players the team spends money on is trading the players they spend money on.  

We are a fickle group, no doubt. Since August 1st of 24 this team is a dumpster fire and only the season Buxton has put together has made watching them worth my time. There is nothing happening in this organization that makes me think we're 1 or 2 players away from going deep in the playoffs. Players, coaches, and management can all wear this mess and get moved or get better.

[NYCTK]

2 minutes ago, Patzky said:

2) Dude is just not a bulldog when things go south. If I had to pick a closer mentality from who is left I'd go with Beefsteak.

Outside of last seasons there is some truth to that. Jax has great peripherals, the second best FIP of all pitchers with at least 65 IP the last 3 seasons, and he has come in and helped his team a lot, 2nd in Shut Downs (appearances in which a RP increases their team's win percentage 5%+). But he also has the second most Melt Downs (win percentage for team decreased 5%+).

I would suggest Brock Stewart is completely unreliable though and should be traded today. No team should count on his long term health, but him being healthy now makes him enticing to contenders I would think. 

 

[NYCTK]

9 minutes ago, Patzky said:

If TD didn't like that we got for Duran there's no way they will like what we get for Jax.

I'm not concerned what a bunch of rubes on the internet think. 

[Twinkies are for eating]

Send him to Houston for some BBQ sauce. I was shocked by his original signing, and less shocked by his demise. The leg fracture repair sunk his value to the point the Twins thought they could bid with the big boys. When the big boys folded little Falvey got excited and threw all his money on the counter. With our penchant to draft SS prospects in the first round we should have someone who can take over. Don’t love the Duran trade. Abel seems like a bust. And why in the world did we trade for two catching prospects days apart??? Where do I get a GM application?

[Patzky]

16 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I'm not concerned what a bunch of rubes on the internet think. 

Lol you're commenting to one? 

[old nurse]

How hungry is Houston to win a championship and do they think Correa is a missing piece to accomplish that will determine if a trade gets made. The desperate for a championship team is always the best trade partner

[Patzky]

3 minutes ago, old nurse said:

How hungry is Houston to win a championship and do they think Correa is a missing piece to accomplish that will determine if a trade gets made. The desperate for a championship team is always the best trade partner

We should be dialing the (213)

[laloesch]

DUMP HIM NOW!!!!  Send 30-40 million Houston's way to get rid of him.  Correa is toast.  There's a reason most of the other teams shied away from him after the physicals.  He's 30 now and fading fast.  Why Houston wants him back at this point, god only knows, but i wouldn't look at gift horse in the mouth.  TAKE HIM PLEASE and RUN!!!!!!!! 

ESPN had an article 14 hours ago where Carlos said the talks aren't serious at this point, "We'll see where everything goes, but my goal has always been to be here and win here."  Even Carlos knows he's peddling garbage.  He's not going to win here ever, the Twins are tearing down now and starting a rebuild and he knows it.  

[shimrod]

46 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

The only thing Twins fans hate more than the team not spending money is the team spending money. 

I had no issue with the Correa signing at the time. The mismanagement of the broadcast situation has put the team on a financial trajectory that makes a $35M/yr player a liability. Even if Correa was playing to his historical numbers the Twins wouldn't be contenders. The team needs to rebuild.

 

[laloesch]

8 minutes ago, shimrod said:

I had no issue with the Correa signing at the time. The mismanagement of the broadcast situation has put the team on a financial trajectory that makes a $35M/yr player a liability. Even if Correa was playing to his historical numbers the Twins wouldn't be contenders. The team needs to rebuild.

 

I was against.  The Twins are not be a big market team, but after the new stadium they were became a solidly entrenched mid-market team.  However in the past two years with this ongoing boondoggle with the broadcast and streaming issues they've lost a ton of fans and revenues and have slid back back down the ladder into the small market realm and honestly A LOT of it is Jim Pohlad and Dave St. Pete's fault.  The Twins have always been slow to get with the trends and they've done a terrible time at marketing themselves outside stadium events.  They are still living in early 2000's.  Don't be surprised if more guys like Lopez get sold off in the offseason. 

I was not for the Correa signing.  I thought it way too much money for a guy that quite frankly had a heavy injury history with his ankles and back.  He's been nothing short of an unmitigated disaster here.  He's so streaky its grotesque.  Correa might as well not play from April through the end of May and August to the end of September, he completely disappears offensively.  Maybe 12 million a year but 30-35 million heck no.  

[TheLeviathan]

The middle infield age cliff is a real thing......

[Coach Wheels]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

If TD didn't like what we got for Duran there's no way they will like what we get for Jax.

Not sure trading Jax is a good idea after Duran got moved. Jax, Stewart, and Varland at the back of the game, 7, 8, 9th innings, is still a good way to win close games.

 

[Trov]

I think this is reading too much into the situation.  CC has full no trade, so only way he moves is if he says yes.  There is a big difference between the Twins shopping CC and asking him to waive deal for anyone, than having a team reach out and say hey could we get him, and they go to CC and say Houston wants you back, is that something you want? One could argue it is putting the player first.  It is different than if he signed long term deal and team says yeah you out without the player having any say in it. 

[twinzcynic]

I don't think that the trade itself would damage the reputation any further. Statements like this that pop up too often do though:

"These facilities here, all the coaching staff, nutritionists, the kitchen — it’s amazing what they have compared to what we had over at the Twins." - Paddack

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, gman said:

I think the Pollads would be doing the "new" owners a big favor by trading Correa and taking the heat for it. The new owners could then say they weren't the ones who traded him. But if the team is going to reduce the payroll,

Correa has to be traded and the best place to get him to accept is probably Houston. The Dodgers and Dodger fans would never take him. The Yankees might and maybe the Mets.

Instead of eating money the Twins might throw in Larnach to give the Astro's the lefthanded outfielder they want. I wonder what that trade would look like.

That's a creative solution.  They would likely still need to eat some salary, but I would like to see it happen.  I look very forward to an outfield of Buxton / Jenkins and Rodriguez.   It will be fun to watch athletes patrol the OF at Target Field.  It would likely mean Lee plays SS until Culpepper arrives but that's OK.  With the OFers mention above and Keaschall / Culpepper, this team will have very good athletes at every position outside of C and 1B remains to be seen.