Is Byron Buxton Ready to Get Frisky on the Bases Again?

[Eric Blonigen]

The explosive athleticism is still there, but the version of the Twins' star center fielder we've seen over the last two seasons has utilized his sheer speed less than in the past. Could we see a return to a more active approach on the bases in 2025?

Image courtesy of © Jonah Hinebaugh/Naples Daily News/USA Today Network-Florida / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

At age 31, Byron Buxton’s sprint speed is still in the 97th percentile among all big-leaguers. Buxton holds the career all-time stolen base percentage, at 88.57%. To paraphrase ZZ Top, he’s got wheels, and he knows how to use them.

Here’s the thing, though: Dating back to 2019, Byron Buxton has stolen nine or fewer bases per season. Looking at his stolen base per 100 plate appearance rate, he has ranged from as high as one stolen bag per roughly 30 plate appearances, to as low as one swipe per 62 plate appearances. This isn’t a bad rate, but it is certainly low for someone with his speed.

There are some clear reasons for this. Buxton has often been injured and the hard start and stop (or slide) can exacerbate lingering injuries; he has likely wanted to avoid getting a new injury when he’s been healthy; he does an incredible job going first-to-third or second-to-home on a single, anyway; and as often as not, he’s been hitting bombs. That just doesn’t create the opportunity to steal. Some good reasons, to be sure. And yet…

A curious thing has happened this spring. In just 10 spring at-bats, Buxton has stolen two bags—and one of those was third base. Buxton has never stolen third in his big-league career, when the games count. When Twins manager Rocco Baldelli was asked about it postgame, he sounded pleased to see his cornerstone getting more active.

“I think that him going makes a lot of sense. It’s something that he hasn’t done a lot of," Baldelli told reporters. "If you’re going to implement it during the season, you might as well break it out. You might bust it out in spring training once or twice, try to get a jump. There’s probably reasons why he hasn’t [stolen third] until now. He’s been excellent at taking second base, one of the best in the game … so adding that into his game is nice. I like that he went.”

Baldelli specifically praised Buxton's acceleration, which is the key to stealing effectively—especially stealing third, since one's lead from second is larger but the catcher's throw to the base is also shorter. So what should fans make of this small-sample focus on running? Is Buxton planning on stealing aggressively this season? Twins legend Rod Carew advises it, as Buxton told the Star-Tribune’s Phil Miller. 

“[Carew] told me, ‘If you don’t steal 60 [bases], I might not speak to you next spring!’,” Buxton said.

Of course, the younger man knows the game has changed since Carew was taking the world by storm. He also is aware of—and has been vocally frustrated with—his lengthy injury history. He is cognizant that this is the first spring in a while where he’s fully healthy in camp. In an interview this spring, he expressed the relief and the excitement that brings him.

“I didn’t have to go to rehab. As a mental aspect of that, you can go and have a normal offseason. That’s what you expect," he said. "I’m predicting myself to stay healthy. I don’t have too many predictions.”

Good health is both a prerequisite for running at all—Buxton didn't attempt a steal in Grapefruit League play in either 2023 or 2024—and a cause for caution. Why risk ruining a good thing, any more often than is necessary? There's one other thing to consider, however. In 2024, the Minnesota Twins had the second-worst collective sprint speed and the fourth-worst home plate-to-first time. They stole fewer bases than any team in baseball, in the easiest environment in which to steal that the game has ever seen. Given the relatively plodding, station-to-station nature of this Twins team, it’s at least worth asking these questions.

1. Should fans expect this stolen base trend to continue into the regular season?
2. Will Buxton have a real shot at swiping, say, 25 bags in 2025?
3. And if so, is it worth the added injury risks to a player who could easily put up a 6-WAR season if he could play 150 healthy-ish games?

He's certainly fast and savvy enough to bring this team a dynamic it has long lacked. Yet, the countervailing risks are real. I don’t have the answers to these questions, so I turn the discussion over to you. What do you think? Will Buxton take advantage of his standing green light to run? And more importantly, should he? Share your thoughts below.

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Twins Daily’s John Bonnes contributed to reporting live from spring training.

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[NYCTK]

No. 

Last Spring Training it was reported that he and Castro had a bet who was going to steal more bases in the 2024 season, and then went on to have a combined 21 SB. 

Quite honestly, Twins fans should expect 10 SB from him and be happy with anything more than that. It's just really sad they're instead discussing the injury risk for a player to run fast. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Not in excess... Keeping him healthy is the biggest issue.  Attempting to  steal 25-30 bags feels like an unnecessary risk.

[HerbieFan]

I really think that every time he takes off, Rocco worries about injury.  He may get 15-20 when the opportunity is too good to pass up but there's no way they risk injury on the bases.

[Cory Engelhardt]

If I truly played mlb the show at all, then absolutely. Real life, we'll see. Mostly I hope he can be as healthy as possible come September/October.

[Karbo]

I think in some cases the risk is worth it. Getting him to 2nd makes a single a run most of the time. Obviously he needs to pick his spots, but I would think 20 -25 steals is in the realm of possibility.

[NYCTK]

20 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

If I truly played mlb the show at all, then absolutely. Real life, we'll see. Mostly I hope he can be as healthy as possible come September/October.

With all his injuries, why don't the Twins simply quit the game and then reload the season? 

[DJL44]

I doubt there would be 60 opportunities to steal during the season where the leverage is high enough to risk injury. Last season he got on base 119 times but 48 of those times were for extra bases (2B, 3B, HR). That leaves 71 chances to steal. Do you really want him to try to steal every time he's on first base? I'd rather use it selectively when a stolen base actually has a good chance of leading to a critical run in a close game. That means 15-20 steals (which BTW would be the 2nd highest total of his entire career).

[Rod Carews Birthday]

At this point, given the injury history, I would rather that he picked his spots VERY selectively.  If it's a close game and the extra base makes a big difference, absolutely go for it.  But on a generic single in the fourth inning, I'd sit it out.  It may be more valuable (and more momentum shifting in the game) for him to try to stretch for an extra base turning a single into a double or a double into a triple, so I would focus on that.  The self-preservation instinct isn't strong in Mr. Buxton. 

[Fatbat]

He is 31 and I will ignore injury history. Buck will hit for average, power and steal 40 bases. Some of them will be 3B because of all the doubles he will hit. 153 games will get him great results. 

[Muppet]

He has 92 stolen bases over an entire 10 year career. He could have that many in a single year (if he ever managed to play 150-160 games). He's not a base stealer and he never will be. I'll settle for breaking up double plays and scoring from first on outfield hits.

[Craig Arko]

If he figured out how to slide safely, I’m in.

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Not in excess... Keeping him healthy is the biggest issue.  Attempting to  steal 25-30 bags feels like an unnecessary risk.

He has 93 SBs in his 10 year career.  Can we quit pretending it's 8 years ago?

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, Craig Arko said:

If he figured out how to slide safely, I’m in.

This is such a sad comment about a veteran MLB player. Sounds like it's about some college junior. 

[KirbyDome89]

He hasn't cracked double digit steals in 5 years, but sure, at 31 years of age this is the turnaround....

[cmoss84]

We've tried this, we've tried that with Lord Byron. I say it's time for him to go all out, every play. Pete Rose style. 81 games. All home.

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I doubt there would be 60 opportunities to steal during the season where the leverage is high enough to risk injury. Last season he got on base 119 times but 48 of those times were for extra bases (2B, 3B, HR). That leaves 71 chances to steal. Do you really want him to try to steal every time he's on first base? I'd rather use it selectively when a stolen base actually has a good chance of leading to a critical run in a close game. That means 15-20 steals (which BTW would be the 2nd highest total of his entire career).

Yes. I've said this before, but even if he was healthy, he's not going to generate a huge number of steals because of his lack of opportunities. He's got so much power that teams have to play him deep. With them playing deep, what are singles for normal people turn into legged-out doubles for him. 

[IndianaTwin]

I do think that the pitch clock rules give a guy like him an extra advantage in comparison to others. He can be a little more aggressive trying to guess timing on pitchers getting low on the pitch clock, knowing that even if he guesses wrong, he has a better chance than others of nabbing the base anyway. If he steals even once per week, he's at 25+.

And the threat of him stealing is going to get better pitches for the batter to hit.  

[Parfigliano]

10 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

I do think that the pitch clock rules give a guy like him an extra advantage in comparison to others. He can be a little more aggressive trying to guess timing on pitchers getting low on the pitch clock, knowing that even if he guesses wrong, he has a better chance than others of nabbing the base anyway. If he steals even once per week, he's at 25+.

And the threat of him stealing is going to get better pitches for the batter to hit.  

He doesn't have 10O SB in his 10 year career.

Sure 25+ this year.

[Road trip]

Chicks dig the long ball, as does Byron.  He's bulked up a lot since his early 20's, and swings hard.

A decade ago I hoped he would be a Tim Raines/Kenny Lofton kind of player.  Nope.  He isn't going to reach those heights, and it seems being a prototype leadoff hitter with some power was perhaps never what he wanted to do (or was coached to become?).  Base stealing... just never became a thing for Buxton, or the Twins organization (arguably the slowest lineup in the league last year).

And I'm at peace with it.  If he can play good defense, stay healthy, hit .250 with 20-25 HR's, well I'll take that in a heartbeat.  He isn't going to be a Hall of Famer, or even close, but he's very valuable when healthy.  I'll look to the next generation of Twins players to hopefully bring base stealing back to the squad.

[IndianaTwin]

43 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

He doesn't have 10O SB in his 10 year career.

Sure 25+ this year.

Didn't say he will. Didn't say he should.

Just said that the pitch clock rules particularly help a player of his type, noted that 25 per year isn't that outlandish when you think of it in weekly terms and observed that if he does it enough to be seen as a threat, it has other advantages as well.

[bean5302]

The Twins have not valued stolen bases under Baldelli, and I don't expect that to change.
2019 - Dead last (28 for the whole team)
2020 - Dead last (14 for the whole team)
2021 - #25 (54 for the whole team)
2022 - Dead last (38 for the whole team)
2023 - tied #23-25 (86 for the whole team)
2024 - Dead last (65 for the whole team)

No manager and front office in baseball history has ever valued stolen bases less.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Didn't say he will. Didn't say he should.

Just said that the pitch clock rules particularly help a player of his type, noted that 25 per year isn't that outlandish when you think of it in weekly terms and observed that if he does it enough to be seen as a threat, it has other advantages as well.

Yeah.  10 years.  Old rules.  New rules.  Proven rule he's not stealing bases.

[Mydaughterhastwins]

125 games played would be the only steal I'm hoping for.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins have not valued stolen bases under Baldelli, and I don't expect that to change.

No manager and front office in baseball history has ever valued stolen bases less.

That goes for defense too. They place almost no weight on preventing stolen bases.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Didn't say he will. Didn't say he should.

Just said that the pitch clock rules particularly help a player of his type, noted that 25 per year isn't that outlandish when you think of it in weekly terms and observed that if he does it enough to be seen as a threat, it has other advantages as well.

I think in the case of Buxton the 25 weeks thing might be an issue.

[Hrbeks Divot]

I don’t expect it to become the norm for him but I’m glad to see it might be a tool he’s willing to use again from time to time. More than anything I think it says he’s feeling healthy and confident in his body. Now if he starts running full speed on a fly towards the CF fence on a regular basis I might get a little nervous.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

That goes for defense too. They place almost no weight on preventing stolen bases.

I feel like Baldelli and Falvey might be learning about the concept of GIGO (garbage in-garbage out) in analytics. Slowly, though.

[tony&rodney]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins have not valued stolen bases under Baldelli, and I don't expect that to change.
2019 - Dead last (28 for the whole team)
2020 - Dead last (14 for the whole team)
2021 - #25 (54 for the whole team)
2022 - Dead last (38 for the whole team)
2023 - tied #23-25 (86 for the whole team)
2024 - Dead last (65 for the whole team)

No manager and front office in baseball history has ever valued stolen bases less.

 

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

That goes for defense too. They place almost no weight on preventing stolen bases.

When it comes to Buxton, one can only or at least be hopeful.

As for thoughts related to front office and Twins management, they are a mystery. We are programmed to believe that people in high profile positions across our culture have expertise and yet there are literally hundreds of examples of total incompetence and even functional  illiteracy at so many levels. Inheritance and the glass floor have managed to obscure what is and is not functional intelligence and/or competence. While I cannot identify any plan or purpose currently practiced by the Twins, I will hope for the best and count on the players to carry the load.

[Doctor Wu]

13 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

He has 93 SBs in his 10 year career.  Can we quit pretending it's 8 years ago?

Yeah, I don't see him going on a stolen base surge at this point in his career. For many years I had thought/hoped that he would be more of a base stealing threat due to his elite speed, but the multiple injuries have stifled that hope. Like others have said, at this point I'm just hoping that he can stay healthy for a full season.