Austin Martin: The Minnesota Twins' Next Defensive Star?

[Matthew Lenz]

Coming off an uneven but intriguing rookie campaign, the former top prospect arrived at camp this spring as a viable option in a utility role—but his skipper views him as a higher-upside player if confined to the outfield.

Image courtesy of © Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Rocco Baldelli didn't shy away from offering Austin Martin a vote of confidence as a center fielder—maybe even one who can stand the gap when Byron Buxton is out, without the team missing a beat.

“I think he has real potential in the outfield, to affect the game, to be a defensive star out there,” Baldelli said last week, in a scrum with reporters at Twins spring training in Fort Myers, Fla. “[Looking] at his jumps, looking at the way he's tracking the ball, closing on the ball, and the more time he has out there, I think he's one of those guys that will keep getting better.”

As a rookie, Martin spent all but 94 of his defensive innings in the outfield, and 277 ⅔ of those frames in the pasture came in center field. The former fifth overall pick was learning the position on the fly: he had totaled just 257 innings in center during his time playing in the Twins’ farm system—although he did play there quite a bit in 2021 with the Toronto Blue Jays’ Double-A affiliate.

In the first week of camp, Baldelli has made it abundantly clear what role he sees Martin playing during the upcoming season and beyond. According to Baldelli, Martin will get “a lot of time in the outfield” and, especially during spring training, “in center field”. The seventh-year manager sees Martin as someone who has “the ability to [be a defensive star], and the work ethic to do so.” Baldelli isn’t saying that Martin is there yet, but obviously, he believes the youngster can get there. While we can’t quantify Martin’s work ethic, we can look into the small sample of data we have to see if Baldelli’s comments have validity.

In his debut season, Martin graded out as a below-average (and in some cases, a downright awful) defender at all three outfield positions, according to FanGraphs's UZR/150. In center field, in particular, he compiled a -15.5 UZR/150, which was second-worst among players who spent a minimum of 250 innings at the position. What makes that more surprising, given his 5-foot-11, 185-pound stature, is that his range (RngR - range runs above average) grades out worse than his arm (ARM - outfield runs above average). Baseball Savant seems to agree with FanGraphs, as Martin posted a -7 Range Run Value (RV) and a -2 Arm RV. All of this is not to be critical of Baldelli—his statements were not necessarily speaking of Martin’s present ability, and defensive stats still aren't what offensive ones are in terms of accuracy or consistency—but it might lead us to wonder what he sees that the overall numbers don’t. 

As with any defensive position, the approach to the ball is the largest determining factor of whether a batted ball turns into an out, a hit, or an error. As we take a closer look into Martin’s approach to flagging down a batted ball, we start to get an idea of where he struggles, and can hypothesize about why Baldelli seems to be so optimistic the former top prospect can “keep getting better”. Of players with a minimum of 25 outfield opportunities, in the first three seconds after a ball was hit, he covered two fewer feet than the average outfielder.

In particular, his reaction was fifth-worst in all of baseball. His "Burst", which measures the process of getting up to speed after gaining a read on the ball, is better, but still worse than average. Yet, there are indications that Baldelli is right. Maybe Austin Martin will keep getting better.

As an All-American out of Vanderbilt, Martin’s Baseball America scouting report suggested captaining the outfield could be his long-term role.

“[Martin] has the instincts and athleticism to potentially handle center field," the report read. "He has the defensive ability to become an asset at a premium position.”

Baldelli sees those tools, and we can, too. His above-average “Route” rating can be attributed to his aforementioned instincts, and his 75th-percentile sprint speed speaks to his athleticism. Given his lack of experience in the outfield as a whole (and particularly center), it's easy to understand why Martin's Reaction and Burst currently grade out as below-average. Reacting to a batted ball more than 300 feet from where it's hit is quite a bit different than when it's hit while you’re manning the keystone. Moreover, the lack of experience may help explain why his above-average sprint speed isn't leading to better Burst. There may be a lack of confidence, yet, affecting how quickly he attacks a batted ball. Given how his routes compare to others, maybe his sprint speed helps make up for the lack of “burst”. That's a lot of conjecture, but that's all we can really do given the sample size of innings played.

Ultimately, Martin needs more seasoning before we can make any proclamations on whether he’ll be a “defensive star” in the outfield. The numbers don't look pretty now, but he has the tools to make it happen. However, ill-informed Baldelli haters can rejoice (they won’t): he's putting down the figurative “spreadsheet” and relying on his feel for the game to see Martin's future potential and impact with the Twins.

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[Chachi]

Thank you for the analysis - and pointing out that advanced defense stats still might need add some additional validation before catching the accuracy of the offensive side.  It’s an odd situation with Martin for sure if you also include the eyeball test.  He appears as ineffective as the stats might suggest.

That said - using averages to understand ‘burst’ might be complicated but don’t know how it is derived.  Can you tell if a few more extremely poor breaks or routes relative to more seasoned outfielders brings his average down?  Is there a top quartile look at his breaks relative to others?  Where a bit more experience would avoid the incidents that really drag his number down?

Wishing him all the best and would be a nice solution if the potential is there but just needs experience.

[Blyleven2011]

If Martin is going to be a solid player , he needs to play alot to grasp the skills necessary  , if he is just a platoon player , he might not be any better than an average fielder ...

He had a decent  , not specular rookie year with the bat ( small sample ) but better than some  ...

Second base could be another position , the few games he played there , he held his own ...

[arby58]

I sure didn't see anything in his favor in the outfield eye test last year. I suppose there is really no place to go but up. Baseball reference had him at -13 defensive runs saved for his playing time in the outfield and translates that into -30 defensive runs saved over a 1,200 inning year. 

There is general agreement that Margot was not a good outfielder last year - but he was -3 DRS for his playing time, which would have translated into -5 for a 1,200 inning year. 

[ashbury]

30 minutes ago, Matthew Lenz said:

I think he has real potential in the outfield, to affect the game,

This part of Rocco's quote takes on a different light in view of yesterday's flyball lost in the Florida sun.

[The Mad King]

Analytics aside, he started horrible last year. By the second half I felt more comfortable with him out there than Willi. Keep Willy in the IF, Martin in the OF and chuck the idea of having a super utility guy.

[Linus]

I’m not sure that a quote from spring training is anything to hang our hats on.  What’s he going to say - “Austin looks a little lost out there”?  Could he get better - absolutely but he has to significantly improve at all aspects of outfield play and how do you do that as the 13th guy on the bench?  If he is going to get good in CF they almost have to send him to St Paul for 3 months.  It would be a shame but it’s the stupid tax they have to pay for playing him at short so much in the minors when we all knew he maybe would play a little at second.  Now their evaluation tells them they don’t want him on the dirt at all which is par for the course for player evaluation with this FO.  To be a good CF you have to get great jumps, have great burst and take great routes.  Not many players can do it.  It’s one reason why Buck is still great out there - he excels in all those critical skills so he will remain good out there even after he loses a little speed.

[RpR]

13 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I sure didn't see anything in his favor in the outfield eye test last year. I suppose there is really no place to go but up. Baseball reference had him at -13 defensive runs saved for his playing time in the outfield and translates that into -30 defensive runs saved over a 1,200 inning year. 

There is general agreement that Margot was not a good outfielder last year - but he was -3 DRS for his playing time, which would have translated into -5 for a 1,200 inning year. 

Comapring his glove to Gordon: the first year Gordon was a better OF than Martin and above average at SS; the second year, , Gordon was not good at Short Stop, but dead on average in Left Field; the third year, Gordon was not bad any where and very good at 2nd Base.

Gordon got the chances so many here pee and moan about but was gone after 2023.

Gordon had too many whiffs but in fewer games produced more than Martin, yet he is gone.

So all the moaning about -  let the boys play and develope is pure bollocks, or in reality, wishful thinking..

[Matthew Lenz]

14 minutes ago, Linus said:

I’m not sure that a quote from spring training is anything to hang our hats on.  What’s he going to say - “Austin looks a little lost out there”?  Could he get better - absolutely but he has to significantly improve at all aspects of outfield play and how do you do that as the 13th guy on the bench?  If he is going to get good in CF they almost have to send him to St Paul for 3 months.  It would be a shame but it’s the stupid tax they have to pay for playing him at short so much in the minors when we all knew he maybe would play a little at second.  Now their evaluation tells them they don’t want him on the dirt at all which is par for the course for player evaluation with this FO.  To be a good CF you have to get great jumps, have great burst and take great routes.  Not many players can do it.  It’s one reason why Buck is still great out there - he excels in all those critical skills so he will remain good out there even after he loses a little speed.

The question posed to him was simply about Martin playing CF. No, he's not going to trash him but he also could have left it at "yea, we're gonna give him some more looks" or something along those lines.

[HerbieFan]

Well, he hasn't really been "good" anywhere defensively to this point.  To answer the question in the article title...Hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.

[Matthew Lenz]

47 minutes ago, Chachi said:

Thank you for the analysis - and pointing out that advanced defense stats still might need add some additional validation before catching the accuracy of the offensive side.  It’s an odd situation with Martin for sure if you also include the eyeball test.  He appears as ineffective as the stats might suggest.

That said - using averages to understand ‘burst’ might be complicated but don’t know how it is derived.  Can you tell if a few more extremely poor breaks or routes relative to more seasoned outfielders brings his average down?  Is there a top quartile look at his breaks relative to others?  Where a bit more experience would avoid the incidents that really drag his number down?

Wishing him all the best and would be a nice solution if the potential is there but just needs experience.

These are all good questions. I definitely don't have the answer but would be interested in that data.

[Matthew Lenz]

1 minute ago, HerbieFan said:

Well, he hasn't really been "good" anywhere defensively to this point.  To answer the question in the article title...Hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.

Yea, he was sort of positionless in the minors and that probably hurt his development a bit. I'll be interested to see him get more seasoning in the OF...seems like he has the traits to be good out there.

[Linus]

2 minutes ago, Matthew Lenz said:

The question posed to him was simply about Martin playing CF. No, he's not going to trash him but he also could have left it at "yea, we're gonna give him some more looks" or something along those lines.

Fair enough.  I think managers are in a tough spot when answering questions like this.  Even if Rocco believes this Martin still has the challenge of enough playing time to realize the necessary improvements.  BYW I meant to compliment you in my post for writing an in depth piece on a players fielding ability.  We need more of these in the player profiles.  There is a lot that goes into being a good fielder and stuff like this shines a light on that.

[arby58]

24 minutes ago, RpR said:

Comapring his glove to Gordon: the first year Gordon was a better OF than Martin and above average at SS; the second year, , Gordon was not good at Short Stop, but dead on average in Left Field; the third year, Gordon was not bad any where and very good at 2nd Base.

Gordon got the chances so many here pee and moan about but was gone after 2023.

Gordon had too many whiffs but in fewer games produced more than Martin, yet he is gone.

So all the moaning about -  let the boys play and develope is pure bollocks, or in reality, wishful thinking..

Gordon is not a good MLB player. Last year, in Miami, he had a .627 OPS, 68 OPS+ and a -1.7 WAR. He wasn't a good outfielder either, with a -6 defensive runs saved that would have translated into a -13 DRS over a 1,200 inning season. That dog won't hunt.

 

[Greglw3]

Rocco Baldelli, a veteran baseball man as a player and a manager said, "The seventh-year manager sees Martin as someone who has “the ability to [be a defensive star], and the work ethic to do so.”

Forget the "advanced" defensive metrics. Anybody that knows the game: a scout, a manager, a former accomplished player consistently gives a different message than the neophyte immature defensive metrics. Nobody’s done  double blind or any t-test to prove that what the new defensive metrics are saying. They are totally counterintuitive to me.

I’ve heard from fans and [lazy] writers that Gio Urshela was a below average defensive player, that Correa was having an off defensive season a couple of years ago because OAA didn’t like him, he was in the 18th percentile and people eat this crap up. Correa to seconds to analyze it correctly. I’m playing on a fly ball staff, of course I won’t record as many outs as a SS playing behind a ground ball staff.

The eye test hs taken a beating but if you’ve watched decades of baseball, loved and studied the game obsessively and have a frame of reference, having seen Allan Trammell, Ozzie Smith, Roy Smalley, Mark Belanger, Campy Campaneris, Freddie Patek etc., your eye test is way better than the counter-intuitive advance defensive metrics (which weren’t used for 150 years for good reason. I see that Correa is the best defensive SS in my lifetime save possibly Ozzie Smith and no advanced defensive stats can change that.

I think Rocco is right. Austin Martin is a superior athlete who made some out of this world catches last year and will get better. Plus he puts the bat on the ball and can steal bases.

[bean5302]

Jump = feet covered in

CORRECT direction from 0.0 to 3.0 seconds
Reaction = feet covered in ANY direction 0.0-1.5 seconds
Burst = feet covered in ANY direction 1.6-3.0 seconds
Route = feet covered vs. straight line to ball 0.0-3.0 seconds

Martin does not have the physical skill toolset you'd expect to excel in CF. He's got the bare minimum sprint speed and arm to play the position, but he doesn't get good reads on the ball off the bat.

People were asking if it was just a couple routes Martin ran poorly, and the answer is no. Martin had many catchable balls which landed for hits, though it seems like he was especially weak tracking balls landing between him and right field.

Scroll to the bottom of the link for the map images. There's an interactive map of an outfield. Set hang time to 5.5+ seconds. Set the catch rate to 55%+. Set the Catch Rate LT slider up a notch or two. Turn on sprint speed range for reference. You'll see Martin missed 5 high probability catches compared to making 2 of them.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/austin-martin-668885?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlb

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

So all the moaning about -  let the boys play and develope is pure bollocks, or in reality, wishful thinking..

Agree 100%.  Trade him and everybody will be happy. Maybe somebody else will “let the boy play”.  Just another prospect not reaching his potential here.  Ho hum. Nothing to see.

[RpR]

49 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Gordon is not a good MLB player. Last year, in Miami, he had a .627 OPS, 68 OPS+ and a -1.7 WAR. He wasn't a good outfielder either, with a -6 defensive runs saved that would have translated into a -13 DRS over a 1,200 inning season. That dog won't hunt.

 

I do not care what he is, I was telling what he was ,which was at the same time in career BETTER than Martin.

Which your 1,200 innings numbers prove.

[Matthew Lenz]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

Fair enough.  I think managers are in a tough spot when answering questions like this.  Even if Rocco believes this Martin still has the challenge of enough playing time to realize the necessary improvements.  BYW I meant to compliment you in my post for writing an in depth piece on a players fielding ability.  We need more of these in the player profiles.  There is a lot that goes into being a good fielder and stuff like this shines a light on that.

Appreciate it!

[DocBauer]

There's a lot of debate about how Martin was developed in the minors. In college, he literally played everywhere, including 1B and the OF, though the majority of his time was spent at 3B. Was he versatile? Or could they not find a defensive home for him? I don't think the Jay's or the Twins thought he was a ML SS prospect. But the arguement i heard many times was he was a "natural OF" who could transition there any time. But they wanted to keep him in the dirt for as long as possible to see if he could be a viable option at 2B and 3B. The idea being that SS experience would help him at the other two spots.

I still don't think that was the right way to handle him, but I can see the method in the madness there.

He doesn't have the typical bat you'd want at 3B, and from what I saw last season, his defense at 2B is questionable. I'll give him credit that I saw a handful of solid plays at 2B in 2024. But I also saw a guy who was very tentative at times. 

What I saw in the OF was very disappointing. Yes, there were a handful of plays where he robbed a HR, or streaked in to the gap to haul in a slicing ball that were hilight material. But mostly what I saw was a guy who couldn't read the ball off of the bat and was either frozen for a moment, or took false steps in or back that kept him out of the play.

I fully understand he was a rookie. I understand that there can be a difference reading the ball off the bat in a giant ML stadium vs a MILB park due to the lights and the decks. But there exists a very real ability to read a fly ball off the bat. Call it instinct if you will. Martin seemed better tracing balls off to the side, but couldn't read balls directed more towards him.

When looking at his college career, and his professional career thus far, I think he was drafted primary as a HIT batter with some speed. He never has had real pop/power, and he's never really had a defensive home.

I'll NEVER pick on a rookie having struggles in his debut! Not only is that unfair, but even STUD players often struggle initially. MLB is HARD! But he didn't exactly flash a potential bat as a rookie. And he looked out of place most days defensively. So I think Rocco's comments were more about his athleticism and "pumping up" Martin's confidence. 

But it does strike me as a little bit funny how poorly some view Julien's defense at 2B initially, before hard work got him to at least average, but because his bat suddenly went silent...and the defense SUDDENLY regressed at the same time...he's dead and gone as a ML SOPHOMORE, but Martin playing poor defense everywhere and not producing much of anything as a ROOKIE/FRESHMAN has a future.

That makes ZERO sense to me. 

Why am I bringing up Julien here? It's because they are similar in roster construction and their futures for 2025 and beyond.

With Bader on hand, Martin's role is as a LF/CF option who can cover 2B and be a PR. But other than 2B, Bader already has the OF covered, along with contributions from Castro. If Julien rediscovers and improves his approach, he's a LH bat the team is suddenly short of, and can play some 2B, DH, and MAYBE help at 1B.

It's all good that the athletic, almost 26yo Martin has the potential to become a very good defensive player in the OF. He DOES have the potential to do so. But it's also just as possible that the almost 26yo Julien actually fits the 2025 roster better as a LH bat the team needs as a 2B/DH.

What's even more interesting and ties these 2 players together is the FUTURE. Rodriguez and eventually Jenkins are in the OF relatively soon. So where does Martin fit as a great defensive player? His BAT had better produce as a quality role player. There's a HOLE for a RH OF bat, but is that Martin?

If Julien "gets right" there's a potential role for him at 2B/1B/DH. But he's also competing against Lee taking over 2B, and Keaschall coming up. And I'm not even going in to the idea of Eeles turning out to be a viable ML ballplayer. 

So its great that Rocco wants to pump up Martin. He might surprise us with his bat and his defense. But if you look at what he needs to work on, and how you'd ideally want to build the 2025 roster, a rebound of Julien is the FIT you'd want to see. Martin should begin the season at AAA.

BOTH are on the clock for prospects behind them. 

 

[Matthew Lenz]

51 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Jump = feet covered in

CORRECT direction from 0.0 to 3.0 seconds
Reaction = feet covered in ANY direction 0.0-1.5 seconds
Burst = feet covered in ANY direction 1.6-3.0 seconds
Route = feet covered vs. straight line to ball 0.0-3.0 seconds

Martin does not have the physical skill toolset you'd expect to excel in CF. He's got the bare minimum sprint speed and arm to play the position, but he doesn't get good reads on the ball off the bat.

People were asking if it was just a couple routes Martin ran poorly, and the answer is no. Martin had many catchable balls which landed for hits, though it seems like he was especially weak tracking balls landing between him and right field.

Scroll to the bottom of the link for the map images. There's an interactive map of an outfield. Set hang time to 5.5+ seconds. Set the catch rate to 55%+. Set the Catch Rate LT slider up a notch or two. Turn on sprint speed range for reference. You'll see Martin missed 5 high probability catches compared to making 2 of them.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/austin-martin-668885?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlb

Thanks for adding more to this. I still think we have to chalk some of it up to not having a lot of time at the position.

[nicksaviking]

I'm going to need 'Star' defined.

There might be a dozen players in the history of the game who were 'stars' based on their defense alone. And most of them played shortstop.

Not saying he can't be a useful player, just sounds a bit like hyperbole from the manager.

[Parfigliano]

Martin's not a star.  He's a player with possible upside on D, with a bat, and speed.

[stringer bell]

It seems Rocco isn't as into analytics as some have been stating if he sees hope for Martin to be an excellent defender. I think the hourglass is running out pretty fast on Martin being a significant player.

[arby58]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

This part of Rocco's quote takes on a different light in view of yesterday's flyball lost in the Florida sun.

While everybody can lose a ball in the sun, the thing I saw with him last year was poor footwork and being 'lost' in judging ball flights. 

[NYCTK]

Lol. Jfc. If this is a serious opinion and not just a manager talking to reporters, Rocco should be fired immediately. 

I'll give the benefit of the doubt and say it's just a manager hyping up one of his players. But Austin Martin has amongst the worst instincts in the OF I've ever seen. 

Is Rocco seriously dumb enough just to be tricked by just athleticism? 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

While everybody can lose a ball in the sun, the thing I saw with him last year was poor footwork and being 'lost' in judging ball flights. 

A little of everything, then.  You know the saying, "he can beat you in so many ways"?  Well, there's a reverse of that too......

[h2oface]

"However, ill-informed Baldelli haters can rejoice (they won’t): he's putting down the figurative “spreadsheet” and relying on his feel for the game to see Martin's future potential and impact with the Twins."

That's a lot to unpack there. From the passive aggressive dis of observant, expressive, and knowledgeable fans, to thinking that if Baldelli says it, it is going to happen. Talk is cheap. We will see. But then, not if Martin doesn't make the team, which is surely not a sure thing.

[AlLagoon]

This website confuses me. One day a writer will say XXXXX is a dud, a couple days later columnist YYYYY will say such player could be a star, all for the same reasons.

[Doctor Gast]

Martin is athletic but he isn't a natural OFer, If they want him to be an OFer they need Tori Hunter to mentor him. Twins coaches don't seem to help much, it looks like they let him flounder out there by himself. Like the PIT game he lost the ball in the sun & wasn't charged with an error, there are many times he wasn't charged with errors but to the stats & fans, they still count those plays against him. 

When they acquired Bader, they don't need him in the OF so why play him out there? He's more needed at 2B which is his more natural position, keep him there & let him be good there, I don't care that he isn't a slugger, he can get on base take & steal that extra base & doesn't SO a lot. What MN needs more than anything is a good lead-off hitter. Kepler, Wallner, Larnach & Margot types don't cut it. Martin is our best bet. someone who gets on base, a terror on the basepath, shakes up pitchers to make mistakes for following batters to take advantage of & spark rallies. 

Martin is athletic & has made a few spectacular plays in the OF but he's not needed there so why put him through all that grief? It doesn't matter what he does because he's not a slugger so he's automatically a bad player.