Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Recommended Posts

Posted

This offseason marks the third year in a row that the Twins have pursued a glove-first backup center fielder, eschewing a more prototypical corner platoon bat on their bench. But that doesn’t mean Harrison Bader shouldn’t be used like one. 

Every offseason, fans have somewhere between opined for and expected the Twins to add a platoon corner outfielder. A platoon left fielder complements their surplus of lefty corner outfielders well, and they generally don’t cost much. But there’s another complementary player type that the Twins have preferred: a Byron Buxton backup.

Harrison Bader joins a short but growing list of high-end defensive center fielders to back up Buxton, standing beside Manuel Margot and Michael A. Taylor. It’s a sensible approach, given Buxton’s frequent trips to the injured list; if the team expects to have at minimum 50 games a year without Buxton roaming center field, there may as well be someone good there in his place.

They needed to make a choice. It’s probably the same choice they had to make the previous two seasons. Backup for Buxton, or corner platoon hitter? It can be difficult to justify having both player types on a big league bench unless the team is really confident about their infield, or one of those two bench outfielders can play a bit on the dirt.

So the Twins have tried to thread the needle, finding a competent (an adjective that may be underselling it) center fielder who can also hit lefties enough to stick him in the corner once or twice a week.

The outcomes of those decisions varied wildly in both context and results over the past two seasons. In 2022, the Twins traded for Taylor to fill the role, and he played the entire season as the team’s starting center fielder as Buxton was never healthy enough to play the field. Taylor, who was initially pegged for a backup role in center and expected to see time in the corners against lefties, had a solid enough season and logged 388 plate appearances.

Margot, the 2023 solution to the same problem, played out entirely differently in his 336. Buxton returned and played most of the team’s games in center field, which moved Margot to a more prominent role in the corners. Margot’s depleted fielding prowess did as well. Margot made a name (and tens of millions of dollars) based on his high-end outfield defense, but he couldn’t sustain it into his late 20s. 

Neither has been lauded for his offensive prowess, nor has Bader. They're more akin to the types of bats that Cleveland has had patrolling their outfields out in the 2020s. However, given that all three are righties, there’s, at minimum, an assumption that they can be useful against left-handed pitchers in addition to the value they provide on defense. Taylor did crush lefties in 2022, hitting about 40% better than the league average against them. Margot held his own against them, about league-average, despite his inability to get a hit as a pinch hitter.

Bader has the worst career track record of the three against lefties, and he’s been inconsistent year-to-year, but he’s still been about 10% better than the league average against southpaws.

And that’s probably all it takes. I mean, Bader had a down year against lefties last year, and he still hit better against them than Trevor Larnach did and was very close to Matt Wallner's.

There’s a legitimate argument to be made that the best version of this team has Bader taking 400 plate appearances. He’s generally been somewhere between 350 and 450 plate appearances a year in his career, so it’s not a role he’s unaccustomed to. It's not unreasonable to have him in the lineup 60% of the time.

There will be time for him, both in the corners and in center. Obviously, Buxton will require days or weeks off (hopefully not months). Bader will get his time in center field. His sprint speed has decreased a bit (as happens to most 30-year-olds), and Fielding Bible saw him as average in center last season, but Outs Above Average (OAA) graded him well last season. He’ll at least hopefully be at minimum solid, unless he experiences a Margot-like falloff. 

But he can also play the corners. He hasn’t played anywhere but center field since 2018, but when you’re on Byron Buxton’s team, you’re probably expected to defer to him. And he should. He should play over Matt Wallner and/or Trevor Larnach. Throw in Emmanuel Rodriguez if he’s on the roster, too, I want Bader over him. I’m brave enough to say it.

Both Wallner and Larnach are good hitters. I like them. But they’ve struggled against lefties, like most lefties do. They’ll probably get slightly better with time. But that doesn’t mean the Twins should run both of them out against every lefty. Have them alternate in left while Bader plays right. That is totally fine with me!

Both big guys need days off. And Bader, even at just 10% above league average, has been a far better hitter against lefties than either of them. But beyond that, let’s revisit the beginning of this discussion. Bader is an asset defensively. Even if he might not be the big thumper you want in that spot, he should be a very good defender in right or left field. And if he’s a much better hitter and a much better fielder than the other two, then play him. It’s not that hard. As sabermetrician and former President Ben Franklin once said, a run saved is a run earned.

And he's going to do that better than the other options. He's a better defender than Austin Martin, even if you are granted the assumption that Martin will hit better (and Martin is still in line for a big league role right now). You might argue that DaShawn Keirsey Jr. is a better defender, but we haven't seen that yet, and he's left-handed. We have no clue what Rodriguez is ready for right now.

Sure, there are some qualifiers. It’s probably not the best idea to go full Manny Magoo and pinch-hit Harrison Bader for Matt Wallner in the fourth inning (Bader was 0-10 last season as a pinch hitter, by the way). I’m okay scaling that back. Pull him when a righty reliever comes in, too. He should also get some pinch-running opportunities, so maybe save him for later in the game.

Also, if he’s no longer the fielder he was, a lot of this goes out the window. Or if he’s now at the decrepit age of 30 and can’t hit at all, change course.

But Bader is in line for a real role. The Twins surprised a lot of people by offering him a contract that could surpass $8 million if he hits his incentives. He’s going to get run, and he should.

Maybe the real platoon bat is the runs we prevent along the way.


View full article

Posted

A good article. Thanks. I think Bader was a good signing for the Twins. He hustles and is a huge upgrade at the corners defensively. Yes, Wallner has great velo on his throws, but after reading the fine article about Wallner's lack of quickness in the OF and his limitations on throwing accuracy, I'm even more in favor of Bader playing a lot of corner OF. 

Posted (edited)

Yawn! Bader is a better outfield option than Austin Martin. The entire season hinges on Correa, Buxton, and Lewis staying healthy, along with the starters. Otherwise, another yawn for the offseason. A new owner who isn’t indifferent like the Pohlads can’t come soon enough!

Edited by Otaknam
Spelling
Posted

Like Margot, Bader is progressively getting worse at fielding & their hitting is atrocious. It'll be interesting to see which would be badder, Margot or Bader. (please forgive the pun). Like Margot, he'll get too much playing time, take up a valuable roster spot, from our own players, be too expensive, & be a hindrance to our offense.

Posted

The agents for every young prospect or current Twins position player should be begging the FO for a trade.  The Twins model is practically always the same: get drafted, succeed through the system, get hyped in the press (including the TD), get called up, get stalled, get moved around the diamond and batting order, and enter platoon player purgatory. Rinse and repeat.

If you want to be a full-time major leaguer - who learns to play one position at an exceptional level and to hit against both righties and lefties in high leverage situations with the chance for the big bucks contract -  you’re better off trying your luck elsewhere. And, ironically, the Twins are better off moving you before your hype/promise turns into the stalled, platoon pigeon hole. Win - win.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Like Margot, Bader is progressively getting worse at fielding & their hitting is atrocious. It'll be interesting to see which would be badder, Margot or Bader. (please forgive the pun). Like Margot, he'll get too much playing time, take up a valuable roster spot, from our own players, be too expensive, & be a hindrance to our offense.

I got a kick out of badder too.  You guys are making my day! 😇

Posted

Didn't read past the title , I'll go back and read in a bit ...

It's a real free agent signing because of the money being paid out , by waiting this long in free agency did the the twins get a worthy player to help the twins in 2025 ( would have preferred grichuk who signed the day before , better hitter and can play all outfield position as well as Bader and got less money ) ...

Was the front office savvy and creative enough to save any money for the payroll by waiting this long in free agency and did they get the right player ????      .. seems to me if they would of struck earlier in free agency they could have found a more reliable hitter with good defense and a right handed bat for about the same money  , Bader  receives a guarantee of 6.5 m with incentives,  plus a buyout on a option year ...

Bader hasn't played a game for the twins , so it's still a wait and see how productive he will be , seems like we saved some money by replacing Bader for Kepler ( kepler great defense but a streaky bat and said he didn't want to play centerfield )

It's okay to be excited about Bader to some extent , but you got to remember most veterans come to Minnesota to end their careers  ( gallo , Margot for example have no reason to be major league players ,  minor league contract  is all their worth  ) ...

One can only hope he finds his hitting stroke and his defense remains strong in order to take at bats away from larnach and Wallner  ...

I'll go back and read ...

Posted

I have a feeling one maybe 2 of our currently outfielder options are going to get moved in a trade (Martin, Larnach, Castro, Kersey)

 

Im not sure they are set yet at 1B and this surely proves they are not sold on any of the back up CF options. 
 

I think a trade for a 1B or salary relief to allow them to sign a a1B is still on order. 
 

My guess is Rizzo is signed.

Posted

Another laughable weak hitter who can play some defense. Which means he should only be a late inning replacement when the Twins have the lead. How will he be used? With Rocco it'll be every chance he gets against a lefty, plus time in CF to spell Buck, and since he's a veteran he'll take valuable at bats away from the youngsters that need playing time, which means WAY to often. Some day the Twins will realize that the problem for needing this type of player is BUXTON and this problem will only go away when Buxton is gone. 

Posted
18 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

would have preferred grichuk who signed the day before... and can play all outfield position as well as Bader

No he can't. 

Posted

If I felt the FO was competent  , then I'd feel more confident in the signing of Bader  , there was better options for the money  ( wouldn't you think ) ...

We'll have to wait and see Bader play in a twins uniform  , hopefully he comes to take the field and I hope he comes to play  , he was once a yankee , maybe they instilled some killer instinct in him , maybe ...

Posted
14 hours ago, Greggory Masterson said:

former President Ben Franklin

Hmmn...I must have missed this one in American history class. 

Posted
41 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Didn't read past the title , I'll go back and read in a bit ...

It's a real free agent signing because of the money being paid out , by waiting this long in free agency did the the twins get a worthy player to help the twins in 2025 ( would have preferred grichuk who signed the day before , better hitter and can play all outfield position as well as Bader and got less money ) ...

Was the front office savvy and creative enough to save any money for the payroll by waiting this long in free agency and did they get the right player ????      .. seems to me if they would of struck earlier in free agency they could have found a more reliable hitter with good defense and a right handed bat for about the same money  , Bader  receives a guarantee of 6.5 m with incentives,  plus a buyout on a option year ...

Bader hasn't played a game for the twins , so it's still a wait and see how productive he will be , seems like we saved some money by replacing Bader for Kepler ( kepler great defense but a streaky bat and said he didn't want to play centerfield )

It's okay to be excited about Bader to some extent , but you got to remember most veterans come to Minnesota to end their careers  ( gallo , Margot for example have no reason to be major league players ,  minor league contract  is all their worth  ) ...

One can only hope he finds his hitting stroke and his defense remains strong in order to take at bats away from larnach and Wallner  ...

I'll go back and read ...

Yeah this one is confusing.  I mean Bader could make 8 mill with a buyout on top of it?  Bader hasn't had an On Base Percentage above .300 since 2021???  I mean but Kepler a home grown product was way way way too expensive at 10 mil?  I get it Kep is a lefty and is probably super stoked to be in Philly, (probably thinks thank God), but by no means is Bader a good replacement for him and at close to the same amount of money?  I mean I was looking forward to a couple of the young guys getting the platoon AB's.  That way the main guys would get most of the work this season.  With Rocco, Bader will probably play almost like a starter 4 - 5 days every week.  What a waste.

Posted
1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

You lost me when you called Manuel Margot a high-end defensive CF....

That was just part of the disaster of Margot last season. Previous to 2024, he WAS a high-end defensive outfielder with a career +41 DRS and +57 OAA with much of that playing time being in center.

Then the bottom dropped out on him, both offensively and defensively. It was literally a worst-case scenario with him.

Posted

At least they did something? But honestly, I'd have preferred they just roll with a rookie from day one. Hopefully catch lightning in a bottle and get a PPI pick. Yes it's unlikely that Rodriguez or Keaschall would do well enough to win ROY, but it's probably just as likely for that to happen as Bader getting back to being a league average hitter.

Posted

Bader improves our athleticism, Speed and defense. He'll be a capable Buxton backup and decent platoon partner in the corners. He should hit a few bombs while stealing some bases. I like the signing. Now we need a big bat, most likely at first base. Cease would be great, but I think our offense needs more improvement than our pitching.

Posted
2 hours ago, mnfireman said:

You lost me when you called Manuel Margot a high-end defensive CF....

Margot WAS a high-end defensive CF until he was injured. I assume the front office thought that he would regain some speed in the second year of recovery, but he did not. If he could have been the kind of defender he was previously, he wouldn't have been a waste of roster space. I know, I know--"if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a merry Christmas".

 

Posted
30 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

You cannot have a COF be a black hole offensively. You can't. But that is what we will see on a fairly regular basis.

I think there's a huge advantage to not having it be a black hole offensively, but it wasn't the end of the world in 2024 to be sure. CLE had worse offense from their regular CF than Bader (and their backups weren't any better) and they did just fine, PHI was even worse getting production at CF and they were one of the best teams in baseball. NYM went to the NLCS and their primary CF was...Bader.

Right now, if you're getting close to league average hitting and good defense from your CF, you're doing pretty well. It's why Christian Vazquez still has value even though he's been a pretty bad hitter lately: so few catchers are hitting much these days that a good defender who doesn't embarrass themselves at the plate still gets work. Same principles are applying in CF now.

If Bader shows a little improvement at the plate, or simply hits LHP well consistently, then he can be a useful player that keeps Castro from having to play in CF, gives Larnach/Wallner breaks against LHP, improves the OF defense in late & close games.

My concern is that he's about to turn 31, hasn't had an OBP over .300 or a SLG over .400 since 2021. He didn't hit LHP particularly well last season, but he also only had 137 ABs against them; he crushed them the season before but it was an even smaller sample. I think it's a fair bet to look to career splits, but you never know.

This move raises the floor a bit and provides useful insurance against a significant Buxton injury. But I think that's about it, which is why I'm a little unimpressed with the deployment of very limited resources here.

Posted

An average major league center fielder is pretty doggone good. Bader, at age 30, was average according to the Fielding Bible (better from other sources). In house options would have been much worse and I'm not ready to sign on that Keirsey Jr. is a defensive marvel.

As far as hitting, Bader's lifetime splits are a more appetizing .776 OPS in 676 plate appearances. Not a lefty killer, but good enough to get platoon starts, that is starting between and 35 to 45 games. Again, as with the entire team, it is my fervent wish that the manager recalibrates the pinch hitting calculus. Don't pinch-hit for superior hitters in the middle innings. 

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund
The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Twins community on the internet.

×
×
  • Create New...