This Underground Twins Prospect Has Gone Mainstream: Why You Should Buy the Hype

[Cody Schoenmann]

Ooh, girl. Shock me like an electric eel. Baby girl, I'm buying stock in Payton Eeles.

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

In a world where one can be a gaslighter, gatekeeper, or girl-boss, Twins Territory chooses gatekeeper every time. Fans of the team have long tried to keep cult heroes in the shadows, making concerted efforts to limit outside spectators' access and keep these beloved players to themselves. During the Ron Gardenhire era, starting pitcher Boof Bonser was the heroic figure of choice. More recently, utility player Willians Astudillo gained legendary status, donning the illustrious nickname "La Tortuga." Since Astudillo left the Twins organization after a tumultuous 2021 campaign, Minnesota has been void of such an iconic figure. Happily, infield prospect Payton Eeles could become the next pop culture icon to grace the masses at 1 Twins Way.

Signed for $500 out of independent baseball last May, Eeles excelled in the Twins system. The 25-year-old jumped four minor-league levels in less than a month, hitting a combined .303/.461/.471 with four home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 170 wRC+ over 209 plate appearances and 47 games between the Florida Complex League and Single-A. After skipping Double-A, the 5-foot-5 phenom similarly excelled at Triple-A, hitting .306/.435/.497 with 64 hits, 20 stolen bases, and a 144 wRC+ over 260 plate appearances in 64 games. He also underwent a power surge at St. Paul, hitting double the number of home runs he had managed at the lower levels. Nevertheless, Eeles is a contact-skilled bat who will get most of his value from hitting singles and wreaking havoc on the bases.

Advancing from playing indy ball to posting a wRC+ 44% greater than average at Triple-A in a little over a month is a remarkable feat. Despite being the subject of a profile from Baseball America, Eeles's story didn't take off nationally. For that, he'll have to reach the majors, and keep finding success. That said, he has earned the attention of popular national baseball outlets in the past month. Two weeks ago, Eeles appeared on Aram Leighton and Jack McMullen's podcast entitled The Call Up, to discuss his breakout campaign. His appearance on Leighton and McMullen's podcast indicated his folk tale-like story has expanded beyond the gatekeeping confines of Twins Territory.

Then, four days ago, the floodgates were opened, as prominent baseball content creator Foolish Bailey released a YouTube video on Eeles titled "The Best Underdog of 2025." Over one week, Foolish Bailey's video has netted over 56,000 views, generating the most exposure Eeles has received since joining the Twins organization less than nine months ago. Eeles has gone mainstream, and stories on him from outlets like ESPN and The Athletic are likely around the corner. The attention surrounding Eeles and his story is justified. Still, his contribution to the organization could transcend being an endearing story of triumph and perseverance.

A little over three weeks ago, Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs released his highly anticipated ZiPS projections for the 2025 Twins. Interestingly, ZiPS is high on the 25-year-old infielder, predicting him to produce at the following rate next season:

• .250/.345/.358, 475 plate appearances, 102 hits, 20 doubles, 4 home runs, 23 stolen bases, 18.1% strikeout rate, 106 wRC+

ZiPS projects Eeles to play an integral role at second base, alongside fellow young infielders Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, and Austin Martin. Willi Castro and Royce Lewis weren't listed at second base in the projections, yet they are also expected to spend time at the position in 2025.

Eeles's breakthrough is especially intriguing, considering the uncertainty surrounding second base headed into next season. Theoretically, the trio of Lee, Julien, and Castro should be able to produce above-average offensive numbers at the position while displaying adequate range and throwing skills. But what if Lee battles injuries or struggles at the plate? What if Julien, again, isn't close to the player he was in 2023? What if Castro is needed elsewhere full-time, or struggles like he did post-All-Star break last season? If any of these uncertainties manifest, Eeles could be the first line of defense at Triple-A, especially considering that prized infield prospect Luke Keaschall is projected to miss the beginning of the 2025 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Again, this is all conjecture. Eeles could easily spend the entire 2025 season in the minors. Still, with ZiPS projecting him to produce at an above-league-average rate, signs point toward him contributing for the Twins in some manner next season. If Eeles makes his major-league debut for the club next season and comes out of the gate hot, he could quickly become Twins Territory's next cult hero. However, unlike the Bonsers and Astudillos of seasons past, Eeles possesses the skills necessary to surpass cult hero status and become a genuinely valuable contributor for a playoff-contending club.

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[old nurse]

For Eeles to get a shot 3 out of the four would have to happen. Correa or Lewis would have to be injured, Julian be a failure,, Miranda underperform, Lee underperforms. Then there would have to e no trades for another MI and Ford showing why he was available for a minor league contract. Plus he would still have to e the demon with the bat and feet.  Dude has a lot stacked against him. 

[DJL44]

His opportunity is second base or bust, they can't move him anywhere else except LF and he doesn't have the power bat everyone wants from a LF. If he wants the job, he's going to have to outperform all of those other options. It's possible that he does. Helman is gone, Castro only has 1 year left, Julien is a bad fielder at 2B, Martin struggles on offense and defense, Lewis and Lee are both better at 3B than at 2B. Keaschall might be an outfielder. My guess is Eeles will be the last person they try next summer and he's going to have to play good defense with an OPS > 900 in AAA to get a shot.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd love to see him get a shot. He's not a veteran though, so it won't happen w/o injuries. 

[High heat]

He is a great story and happy to see him in St. Paul.   When you’re limited to 2B he can’t really come up and help break through in a utility role.  Lots of injuries or complete failures ahead of him would need to occur.  
 

Im more excited about Will Hollland now that Helman is gone.  As a better defender and much more versitile along with more speed.  If he can hit .300 again in AAA he might get a shot to replace Castro.

[RpR]

46 minutes ago, old nurse said:

For Eeles to get a shot ...Julian be a failure,,

BE? -- LOL!

Twins have no one now who is a competent 2nd baseman, outside of possibly --- Martin.

[NYCTK]

29 minutes ago, High heat said:

Im more excited about Will Hollland now that Helman is gone.  As a better defender and much more versitile along with more speed.  If he can hit .300 again in AAA he might get a shot to replace Castro.

Will Holland is not happening. He's probably not even a AAAA player, much less Majors. 

Eeles is, and should be, much higher up the Depth Chart. 

[chpettit19]

I love me some Payton Eeles. I was hoping they'd call him up last September while they played lifeless baseball and watched their season crumble as he lit the world on fire as the ultimate sparkplug in St Paul. Not surprised they didn't, but I wish they would've seen if he could breathe some life into the squad.

I don't know if he's going to be a legit MLB player. His performance in AAA certainly suggests he will (or at least should) get a chance at some point. I'm excited to see what he does in spring and if he can start pushing for some playing time. It's likely 2B and LF as the only options for him with his bat profiling much better at 2B. But the Twins need a 2B so let's throw his name in the ring and let the play on the field dictate who gets MLB reps. I like his chances to put up a heck of a fight.

[mikelink45]

I love this - he was my favorite minor leaguer this year.  He reminds me of Altuve - give him a shot!

[Dman]

It was so much fun watching Eeles play in the Minors last year.  The way he played all the way up to AAA It felt like getting a free 1st round draft pick not some guy from the independent league.  I am really high on him but everything he did is in a small sample size.  And while everything held up level to level I think they let him bake half the year at AAA to just make sure things will translate before possibly adding him. He is older and getting added onto the 40 man is no small thing because once added you need that player to be worthy of the spot going forward or you risk losing them.

You look at what Lee did offensively in AAA versus Eeles and the numbers look pretty close.  Both are small sample sizes, but it shows just how good Eeles has been in MiLB so far.  If he starts out where he left off and other players don't perform or get injured I really think he could be added.  Will just have to wait and see.

[bean5302]

Eeles definitely needs some time to prove out his game in AAA, but the 260 PA sample is encouraging. I suspect he's going to be deployed as a utility infield guy rather than at a static position. 2B-SS-3B. How much SS time probably depends on what veteran the Twins acquire for depth and how they feel about giving Holland a full time SS position to start the season.

He's ranked a little too low on 2024 prospect lists AFAIC, hopping in at like #30 EoY for MLB and NR for Fangraphs, but he might move around a little for 2025 lists.

As was mentioned previously, his batted ball data I saw at a glance was similar to Brooks Lee, but a bit weaker than Lee. Batted ball data from MiLB isn't nearly as reliable.

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I love this - he was my favorite minor leaguer this year.  He reminds me of Altuve - give him a shot!

And even shorter, too! I hadn't heard of him when I saw him when I was at a Saints game last year, and I was wondering who this short guy was. I was surprised to see how fast he arrived in AAA when I did my research on him.

[Fatbat]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

For Eeles to get a shot 3 out of the four would have to happen. Correa or Lewis would have to be injured, Julian be a failure,, Miranda underperform, Lee underperforms. Then there would have to e no trades for another MI and Ford showing why he was available for a minor league contract. Plus he would still have to e the demon with the bat and feet.  Dude has a lot stacked against him. 

Or Eeles bats .3/4/500 out of tge gate in April. He will get a shot by July. There are always injuries. Someone always underperforms. 

[NYCTK]

8 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Or Eeles bats .3/4/500 out of tge gate in April. He will get a shot by July. There are always injuries. Someone always underperforms. 

Correct, thinking that all of Lewis, Julien, Miranda, Julien, and Martin will be both healthy and good is just not how things work. Same as people so concerned that Bader is blocking Rodriguez.

If they're "blocked" that means that literally every position player on the team is performing above the highest of expectations. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Absolutely on Eeles. Count me as a fan. But unfortunately, if you don't have the high pedigree with this team you don't get much of a chance. That's just what history has shown.

[jmlease1]

He's a fantastic story. I'm rooting like hell for him. I hope he keeps crushing the ball in AAA, playing good defense, and pushes his way on to the 26-man roster.

I have no problem with him starting the season in AAA; he had a great season but it's not like he's shown it over a couple of seasons in pro ball. It's a fairly small sample at the high minors. If he keeps hitting like this, he'll get a chance. 

[RpR]

44 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Absolutely on Eeles. Count me as a fan. But unfortunately, if you don't have the high pedigree with this team you don't get much of a chance. That's just what history has shown.

What pedigree has any rookie or quasi-rookie come in with?

[bean5302]

4 minutes ago, RpR said:

What pedigree has any rookie or quasi-rookie come in with?

High draft pick pedigree status. Teams always seem willing to grant additional opportunity and more resources to high rounders. Probably a function of trying to reclaim sunk costs.

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd love to see him get a shot. He's not a veteran though, so it won't happen w/o injuries. 

Brutally honest comment.

[DocBauer]

A quick rewind for those who haven't looked closely at Eeles' career thus far:

He played his first 4 years at a smaller school, division 2 i want to say, and absolutely RAKED. He spent his 5th season at division 1 Coastal Carolina, which is pretty well regarded school that even won the CWS a few years ago. For arguement sake, his one year at division 1 CC were as follows:

.374/ .500/ .492/ .992 with 42SB out of 48 chances and 74 R and 43 RBI. He also had 17 Dbls and 4 HR.  He played all over in college, including SS, but was primarily a SS.

Normally, with that kind of production you'd think he'd be drafted. But he was 23yo his senior season and still remains about 5' 5", though with a sturdy 180-190lb frame with speed and quickness. So age and height probably kept him from being drafted.

I am NOT comparing him to Keaschall, more power and 3 years younger, but Keaschall reached AA in his 2nd season, and 1st FULL season. But what if Eeles had been a late round pick 2 or 3 years ago and reached AAA and produced his amazing numbers as a 24yo in 2024? (He didn't turn 25yo until after the season in November). Would his prospect status be different if he was drafted in 2022 instead of being a signing from the Independent Leagues?

I guess my point is, you shouldn't short change a prospect when they produce, regardless where they came from.

An obvious and legitimate arguement is "do it again to prove yourself" as he began in low A ball, spent a little time in high A ball, skipped AA entirely, and then jumped to AAA. So, obviously, pitchers only saw him ONCE in A ball. Except, he only played 47 games at A ball and 64 games at AAA. So the idea of "exposure" to same pitching loses a bit of punch. A .919 OPS at AAA is pretty damn impressive even if you allow it to be a hitters league. If you allow a .150 point drop at the ML level, he'd still be a .769 OPS, POTENTIALLY. 

Any way you want to slice it, he was damn impressive in 2024! 

Reports are he worked especially hard at St Paul on his defense, even though he moved around some. And even as a hopeful fan of him and his story, I agree with the "show us again" idea to prove it wasn't just a 1yr lighting in a bottle performance.

But regardless of how he got here, you'd have to be blind as a FO/Team if you don't take what he did in 2024 seriously. First round picks never make it, and late round picks surprise. Who cares if he followed a different path to get where he is right now? 

He should get a serious look-see in ST for the FO, Rocco, and the coaches to get a long look. He'd be a rookie FA if he were a Vikings player. Sometimes those players turn out to be pretty good. I absolutely don't expect him to break camp with the Twins, no matter what he does. But if he produces at St Paul as well in 2025, maybe slightly less, maybe slightly better, the Twins better pay attention. 

Once in a while, lightening DOES strike to your benefit. In a somewhat similar vein, that happened with Castro in 2023. DON'T ignore a strike when it happens.

[Eephus]

Long overdue article!

[RpR]

Kwan is 5feet 9inches and plays the outfield very well; his height should mean zip in the infield.

He should break camp with the Twins.

[D.C Twins]

Well done Cody.... this was my favorite TD article in a long while!

[twinstalker]

Really the only concern is his exit velocity, which averaged 86.9 at AAA last season.  I'm not sure of his max or EV90, but I doubt they defy his average EV.  You really want the average to be at 90 in AAA, but it doesn't have to be.  As is he should be decent this year.  For reference, Austin Martin's avg EV at AAA was 86.4. (EVs for other levels than AAA are incomplete).

K rate, age vs league, and exit velocity/barrels are about all you need to piece together how good a prospect will be (barrels is learned, to an extent).  The problem with projecting Eeles is that, for a true prospect, he started even AAA too old, so the projection is tougher.

I'd still put him in the top 10 for the Twins, maybe as high as 5 or 6, after Morris and depending on whether you include Zebby, but I could see arguments for put Lewis in front of him.  Soto, too, if you really value upside over 50th %ile.

[Doctor Gast]

23 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Absolutely on Eeles. Count me as a fan. But unfortunately, if you don't have the high pedigree with this team you don't get much of a chance. That's just what history has shown.

Eeles started the Twins running & I took immediate note. I've been following him & he should be given recognition to be a viable MLB candidate. IMO he should replace Julien as the LH 2B option. But that won't happen because Twins will give Julien every opportunity even when it's obvious that he's toast. Beyond that they'll give their acquisition Gasper every opportunity to prove that he's not a MLBer. Eeles is a nobody to the Twins except a break glass option when all of their other players  absolutely bomb or get injured.

[DJL44]

31 minutes ago, twinstalker said:

Really the only concern is his exit velocity, which averaged 86.9 at AAA last season.  I'm not sure of his max or EV90, but I doubt they defy his average EV.  You really want the average to be at 90 in AAA, but it doesn't have to be.  As is he should be decent this year.  For reference, Austin Martin's avg EV at AAA was 86.4. (EVs for other levels than AAA are incomplete).

K rate, age vs league, and exit velocity/barrels are about all you need to piece together how good a prospect will be (barrels is learned, to an extent).  The problem with projecting Eeles is that, for a true prospect, he started even AAA too old, so the projection is tougher.

I'd still put him in the top 10 for the Twins, maybe as high as 5 or 6, after Morris and depending on whether you include Zebby, but I could see arguments for put Lewis in front of him.  Soto, too, if you really value upside over 50th %ile.

Eeles is going to win a job based on OBP and defense. He's not going to produce a lot of power.

[Doctor Gast]

19 hours ago, RpR said:

BE? -- LOL!

Twins have no one now who is a competent 2nd baseman, outside of possibly --- Martin.

We both have an eye on the importance defense & I appreciate that about you even though we don't agree on the importance of defense at 1B & RF.

[Senior Softball Guy]

There's still room on the Eeles train! Small players always play with a chip on their shoulders, always having to prove themselves. Small strike zones, big attitude....sign me up!

[Otaknam]

Eeles will be one of the most interesting stories this spring. Hoping he has a breakout year and becomes an offensive force. His speed would really help, but Rocco is pretty inept at utilizing speed, dogmatically deferring to analytics that requires him to sit back and wait for the home run, 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Really the only concern is his exit velocity, which averaged 86.9 at AAA last season.  I'm not sure of his max or EV90, but I doubt they defy his average EV.  You really want the average to be at 90 in AAA, but it doesn't have to be.  As is he should be decent this year.  For reference, Austin Martin's avg EV at AAA was 86.4. (EVs for other levels than AAA are incomplete).

K rate, age vs league, and exit velocity/barrels are about all you need to piece together how good a prospect will be (barrels is learned, to an extent).  The problem with projecting Eeles is that, for a true prospect, he started even AAA too old, so the projection is tougher.

I'd still put him in the top 10 for the Twins, maybe as high as 5 or 6, after Morris and depending on whether you include Zebby, but I could see arguments for put Lewis in front of him.  Soto, too, if you really value upside over 50th %ile.

Pretty common for guys to lose 1mph on average EV from AAA to MLB. Max for Eeles was 107.0mph. You're right that very few MLB hitters do well at 85-86mph EVs range, but there are a couple. Arraez, Kwan, Altuve. Eeles' batted ball data shows 50% GB rate and a 17% pop up rate on fly balls. Both would traditionally be very poor indicators.

Given his age, fringy batted ball data, and the scouting reports, I think Eeles would sneak into my top 20, but he'll need to do more to rise above that. Of course, if Eeles does a lot more, he'll probably get called up and fall off the prospects list either through losing rookie status or flopping.