Should The Twins Be Investing In The Rotation?

[Cody Pirkl]

After a quiet offseason, the Twins have been linked to a high-end starting pitcher in trade talks with the Padres. While such an addition would always be welcome, it’s worth questioning whether this is how the team should potentially spend resources.

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

On Thursday night, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported that not only were the Twins in talks with the Padres about Christian Vázquez but that they also had an interest in Dylan Cease, who was acquired by San Diego last spring and has one year of team control remaining. The news injected life into a dormant fanbase who watched their team collapse down the stretch in 2024 and hasn’t had a single rumor to get excited about to this point in the offseason. After pondering the logistics of such a deal, one could conclude that while exciting, making a significant splash in the rotation doesn’t seem like the move for the current Twins roster.

The Twins rotation isn’t technically set currently, but it doesn’t lack reasonable options. Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober form a formidable trio at the top, with a mix of Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Chris Paddack likely in contention for the final two spots. St. Paul isn’t lacking in depth for the stretch run of 2025 either, as several top prospects await opportunity, including Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, and Zebby Matthews, who debuted at the end of 2024. Starting pitching may be the strength of this roster, and while you can never have enough of it, the Twins are set up as well as they have been in years.

Meanwhile, the rest of the Twins roster is riddled with question marks. The bullpen fell apart in 2024, and plenty of the concerns we saw during that period remain, with no additions expected to be made. The lineup lost Carlos Santana who turned out to be one of their best hitters, and was painfully unproductive for the last month and a half of last season. Several holes remain on the positional depth chart, including first base and a right-handed hitter to at least platoon with Larnach and Wallner in the outfield.

Many young players, such as Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis, lost some shine as their struggles ran parallel to those of the entire roster in the last month and a half of the season. It seems like a lot could go wrong on the position player side and sink the team’s chances in 2025, and it’s hard to envision all those holes being covered by adding a starting pitcher.

The Twins only have so many bullets to use this offseason, and many likely come in the form of prospect capital given the payroll limitations. While it’s easy to argue that dangling prospects in trade to supplement the MLB roster would be wise, it would still have to be for the right deal. An addition of a pitcher, even one of Cease's pedigree, could be seen as odd, given what the rest of the roster looks like. The cost of doing business would surely be astronomical. Investing in the rotation would make a difference, but investing in an impact position player would significantly impact the team’s chances.

Perhaps a deal exists where it makes perfect sense for the Twins to acquire a high-end starting pitcher like Dylan Cease, and it’s certainly understandable for the Twins to at least check-in. That being said, it’s hard to argue that such a deal should be a priority after watching how last season ended and what the current roster looks like. 

Should the Twins be looking to make significant additions to the rotation? Should they be spending their minimal capital elsewhere? Let us know below!

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[Fezig]

They should always be trying to improve the SP. But don't sell the farm for a one year rental. Unless it's Jack Morris, then get him for one year and get your lawn chairs ready for the parade in November.

Yes, I know we didn't trade for Morris. 

[Coach Wheels]

If they are seriously thinking of flipping Lopez (he'll bring great prospects) then adding Cease makes perfect sense for 2025. Guessing you give up Larnach and Vasquez; the trade be 1 for 1. I'd make the trade if I'm trading Lopez away, for sure.

[Cory Engelhardt]

They can add Cease and a 1b via trade (let’s call him Ryan Mountcastle) and not by any means empty the farm system to do that. 

[Fatbat]

Its always time to invest in SP high level talent. If we sell prospect assets, it better be for more than 1 yr of control.  Its taken a looooong time to get the pitching pipeline as full as it is so with a pending sale of the team, the FO wont do a blockbuster trade that could blow up and send them packing by new ownership. 
Its would seem that the trade deadline would be a better opportunity to flip assets as needed when all of a thousand questions/answers about the guys on our 40 man roster becomes more clear. 
Will we be in a pennant race? Will we be bottom dwellers?  The FO has gotten Pablo, Ryan, Paddack and SWR via trades. The kids they have drafted are going to knock down the door as some point soon and be worth more once they are established MLB’rs.  If some combination of Festa/Matthews/Adams/Raya/Lewis/Varland/Culpepper/Priellip/Soto/Hill/(insert name) take large steps over the next 24 months, we will be exporting some arms for any missing lineup pieces. We haven’t had these kind of long term assets on the farm, ever.  Our Depth is long but is there an Ace or two on the farm? Is it time to invest in a guy like Cease? Sure, but at what cost?

[LambchoP]

Give them Vasquez and someone like Raya, Lewis, Adams for a year of Dylan Cease. Then trade Paddack and another prospect or two for a first baseman like MountCastle or Diaz. I'd be overjoyed with our off-season if even one of these comes to fruition.

[TopGunn#22]

I don't trade Lewis until of seen what I get out of him in 2025.  it was not that long ago we were discussing him as the cornerstone of the franchise moving forward.

The Padres have nothing in their OF beyond Tatis Jr. and Merrill.  I have suggested trading Vasquez, Larnach and Chris Paddack, and either Miranda or Julien in a package to the Padres for Cease and Luis Arraez (and maybe adding Campusano, their current starting catcher who is 26 years old if they would include him).

This trade would add $10 million to the Twins current salary structure, but it would add a bona fide Ace to the rotation and solve the 1B problem (Arraez) for 2025.  Both Cease and Arraez are FA after this season.  I would not be acquiring Cease with the intent of trading Lopez.  But I WOULD consider using someone like SWR in a deal to get a young catcher who is close to being MLB ready.

There is always the chance that in acquiring Cease, new ownership would sign him to an extension.  But that is far from a guarantee.  That's why I'm not trading Pablo Lopez.  A rotation of Cease, Pablo, Ryan and Ober with Festa as #5 wouldn't just be the best in the A.L. Central.  It would be Top Five in MLB.

Arraez would also look good hitting leadoff for the Twins.  The Padres need to cut payroll.  They would do this because they would be cutting $28-$29 million from their payroll and adding about $18 million.  They would be adding a badly needed LF, a starting catcher, a swing arm in Paddack and a replacement at 1B for Arraez (either Miranda or Julien).

The Twins would have a bit of a hole in LF but that could be filled by Willi Castro or a FA signing like Austin Hayes or would accelerate the promotion of E-Rod.  Any of these are acceptable outcomes for me.  

[Fatbat]

8 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I don't trade Lewis until of seen what I get out of him in 2025.  it was not that long ago we were discussing him as the cornerstone of the franchise moving forward.

The Padres have nothing in their OF beyond Tatis Jr. and Merrill.  I have suggested trading Vasquez, Larnach and Chris Paddack, and either Miranda or Julien in a package to the Padres for Cease and Luis Arraez (and maybe adding Campusano, their current starting catcher who is 26 years old if they would include him).

This trade would add $10 million to the Twins current salary structure, but it would add a bona fide Ace to the rotation and solve the 1B problem (Arraez) for 2025.  Both Cease and Arraez are FA after this season.  I would not be acquiring Cease with the intent of trading Lopez.  But I WOULD consider using someone like SWR in a deal to get a young catcher who is close to being MLB ready.

There is always the chance that in acquiring Cease, new ownership would sign him to an extension.  But that is far from a guarantee.  That's why I'm not trading Pablo Lopez.  A rotation of Cease, Pablo, Ryan and Ober with Festa as #5 wouldn't just be the best in the A.L. Central.  It would be Top Five in MLB.

Arraez would also look good hitting leadoff for the Twins.  The Padres need to cut payroll.  They would do this because they would be cutting $28-$29 million from their payroll and adding about $18 million.  They would be adding a badly needed LF, a starting catcher, a swing arm in Paddack and a replacement at 1B for Arraez (either Miranda or Julien).

The Twins would have a bit of a hole in LF but that could be filled by Willi Castro or a FA signing like Austin Hayes or would accelerate the promotion of E-Rod.  Any of these are acceptable outcomes for me.  

Arraez would also make for a nice long term DH if the new ownership want to focus on base runners instead of underperforming HR hitters. Erod and Jenkins will be here very soon so I wouldn’t look for a replacement when Kiersey is already available in AAA to fill in as a short term starter and long term 4/5 OF.  No more Margots are needed. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Coach Wheels said:

If they are seriously thinking of flipping Lopez (he'll bring great prospects) then adding Cease makes perfect sense for 2025. Guessing you give up Larnach and Vasquez; the trade be 1 for 1. I'd make the trade if I'm trading Lopez away, for sure.

Plipping Lopez is a very interesting Twist.  They slightly improve the pitching staff for 2025 and improve the farm system because 3 years of Pablo brings back a lot more than the cost of cease.  They also increase payroll capability by roughly $20M with the reductions of Lopez and Vazquez and the addition of Cease.  This will be a good move if they spend the $20M wisely.  

[tony&rodney]

This is actually an easy answer. Dylan Cease increases the win total by roughly two (at a minimum). The cost cannot be any of Jenkins, Rodriguez, or Keaschall any more than Baltimore is sending Basallo or Mayo. The Twins don't need Cease but they can acquire him with a combination of players and prospects that the Minnesota franchise can afford to deal, even while San Diego receives players to fill their needs. It is a want for needs deal

The comment about trading for a high impact position player, a bat, continues to baffle me. Why write that comment if you cannot put out the name of a player who might be reasonably available. Margot, Grichuk, and many others are not those players. Austin Hays would be ok only, but not an impact player. Mountcastle is another player who might be ok, but is he really better than Miranda. Patiently I wait for ideas of a substantial trade to surface involving names instead of the obvious "The Twins should concentrate their resources towards acquiring an impact bat." Please don't suggest a swap of Julien, Paddack, Vazquez, and Martin for Vladdy Guerrero.

Finally, I have stated all offseason that the Twins would or could add minimally to the 2025 26 person payroll within a roughly $10 million region. Adding Cease and Arraez for prospects isn't an answer either plus Arraez is not an impact bat (apologies to those who hold a different view).

Waiting.

[tony&rodney]

28 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

This will be a good move if they spend the $20M wisely.  

Who would you spend money on?

[Brett]

A move for Cease indicates the front office going into “win now” mode, rather than our current view of “let’s see what the youngsters can do on their own.” I would also be interested to see how much the loss of Vazquez affects the pitching staff and our overall defense.

BTW, shout out to our friends at FanGraphs for showing our DH depth chart as “Bunch of Dudes.” Both accurate and funny. My kind of people.

[tony&rodney]

47 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

The Padres have nothing in their OF beyond Tatis Jr. and Merrill.  I have suggested trading Vasquez, Larnach and Chris Paddack, and either Miranda or Julien in a package to the Padres for Cease and Luis Arraez

At a minimum, the Twins would need to send a starting pitcher back to San Diego. One of SWR, Festa or Matthews are the likely requirements. Most likely Preller also demands a pitching prospect like one of  Raya, Morris, Cory Lewis, C. J. Culpepper or Charlee Soto as well as a guy like Yasser Mercedes.

I will add that a monster complicated deal could be a real boon for the Twins in the short term and largely depends on Falvey's willingness to believe in specific players versus the field, which is how we often view the big lists of prospects.

[Major League Ready]

28 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Who would you spend money on?

That's a great question and to be honest I stated it this way because I really not sure.  I know the positions would be RH OFer, 1B, and LH RP.   Would they spring for Alonso on a 3-year deal?  I might spend it all in one place if it were Alonso but that would increase the amount we are spending on the top 3 guys so I would have to acknowledge that's a questionable move.

[Rosterman]

In the real world, a one-year rental of a top-flight pitcher is what you need to do to be competitive.

But you also need to invest in your own arms of the future, and the Twins have three arms that they could easily extend to last into the 28-29 or even 2030 seasons and probably end up with below value contracts.

Of course, you don't necessarily always need to do ALL the pitchers that you have, if you believe in your system and two arms will be advancing as fulltimers for 2026 for sure, and you have at least one of two sure bets, right now, for the seasons after that to brak into the rotation and be as good as what you have. That is the developmezationt part of baseball.

But never rule out a one year expense, if you can trade from depth. And, of course, that arm is secure to stay off the injured list - which seems to be a Twins probloem when adding higher priced contracts from outside the organization.

[Major League Ready]

12 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

In the real world, a one-year rental of a top-flight pitcher is what you need to do to be competitive.

Cleveland and Tampa have put far more competitive (90 or more wins) teams on the field than the other teams in the bottom half of revenue.  If you look at how Cleveland for example build their rosters, they used the exact opposite approach.  They traded short-term assets for long-term assets.  They have produced roughly the same amount of WAR from players acquired as prospects as they have through the draft and international signings combined.  Not one player that produced more than 1.5 WAR on any of their 90-win teams was acquired in an off-season trade,       

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

That's a great question and to be honest I stated it this way because I really not sure.  I know the positions would be RH OFer, 1B, and LH RP.   Would they spring for Alonso on a 3-year deal?  I might spend it all in one place if it were Alonso but that would increase the amount we are spending on the top 3 guys so I would have to acknowledge that's a questionable move.

Pete Alonso has a couple of offers in hand but he is still hoping for that big deal. The reputed numbers for short term offers are in the neighborhood of 3/$90M. Others suggest 3/$80M. I'm guessing a team gives him 5/$125M, although the original asks were considerably higher.

Do the Twins even think about a DH at those numbers? Remember that both Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa (less so) need at bats as a DH and the Twins also have guys like Miranda, Julien, Wallner, and Larnach who have some days where they are the DH. Alonso isn't even on the radar for MN. I think I would be flabbergasted and I have stated often that I have zero idea what Falvey thinks or plans for the roster.

[dxpavelka]

On the other hand, a lot could go right on the position player side as well.  The lineup they could field on opening day, Jeffers, Lewis, Lee, Correa, Castro, Larnach, Buxton, Wallner, Julien is can win.  It's depth that concerns me.  And left handed pitching, for and against. 

[gmwannabe]

I believe that a deal with SD for Cease can only happen if the Twins agree to pay half of Vasquez's contract which still saves them 5 million because their motivation is reducing payroll and acquiring a catcher who they are interested in. So i would offer Vasquez,  5 million,  Raya, and Larnach if you believe E-Rod will be playing in a corner by mid-season. If you can get a top starter,  you do it!

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Not one player that produced more than 1.5 WAR on any of their 90-win teams was acquired in an off-season trade,       

So... a market inefficiency for our team to exploit!!!1!  😀

[sweetmusicviola16]

I've laid out in the  other thread on Cease what I'd be OK with giving for him. He's a great talent and I'd love to have him but not on an overpay. We have enough SP not to overpay. But I'm of the opinion that the guy we really should be pursuing off of SD is Arraez. Is he a impact bat? If you're looking for HR's obviously not. But the team doesn't need more HR hitters. It does need offense. That's what Arraez does. He wins batting titles. He smacks some doubles. He gets on base to the tune of a .375 OBP. He would give us an adequate 1B. Other than the 14mil he wouldn't come at a high price. SD needs to move him and they aren't going to recoup the prospect capital that they paid for him. Falvey/Zoll might be in a tough position with the ownership change. They need to impress in 2025. Another 82 win season might be their end here. Though I don't see Cease being traded here from SD a deal with them might just fill a lot of our needs. 1B, LHRP and a future franchise C. 

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I've laid out in the  other thread on Cease what I'd be OK with giving for him. He's a great talent and I'd love to have him but not on an overpay. We have enough SP not to overpay. But I'm of the opinion that the guy we really should be pursuing off of SD is Arraez. Is he a impact bat? If you're looking for HR's obviously not. But the team doesn't need more HR hitters. It does need offense. That's what Arraez does. He wins batting titles. He smacks some doubles. He gets on base to the tune of a .375 OBP. He would give us an adequate 1B. Other than the 14mil he wouldn't come at a high price. SD needs to move him and they aren't going to recoup the prospect capital that they paid for him. Falvey/Zoll might be in a tough position with the ownership change. They need to impress in 2025. Another 82 win season might be their end here. Though I don't see Cease being traded here from SD a deal with them might just fill a lot of our needs. 1B, LHRP and a future franchise C. 

What would your trade for Arraez look like?

[Riverbrian]

Good Pitching... they should invest in. 

Innings eaters... they should not spend a dime. 

[ashbury]

12 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

But I'm of the opinion that the guy we really should be pursuing off of SD is Arraez. Is he a impact bat? If you're looking for HR's obviously not. But the team doesn't need more HR hitters. It does need offense. That's what Arraez does. He wins batting titles.

Has he learned to hit left-handed pitchers any better than when he was here?  No he has not.  This past season Manuel Margot did better against lefties than Luis did - almost exactly the same BA plus a little more pop - and Margot wasn't actually good.  The Twins already have too many players who need to improve against LHP.  Arraez isn't a good fit for the current roster, leaving us too vulnerable to the other manager's strategies.

[terrydactyls]

Purely from a business standpoint, I think the proper move is to wait until the trade deadline and allow the new owners dictate the direction the team will go.  Any big moves now might possibly screw up the sale of the team.  Would you want a big splash trade now in exchange for keeping the Pohlads?

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, ashbury said:

The Twins already have too many players who need to improve against LHP

The Twins already have too many players who they need to allow to improve against LHP. 😉

 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Pete Alonso has a couple of offers in hand but he is still hoping for that big deal. The reputed numbers for short term offers are in the neighborhood of 3/$90M. Others suggest 3/$80M. I'm guessing a team gives him 5/$125M, although the original asks were considerably higher.

Do the Twins even think about a DH at those numbers? Remember that both Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa (less so) need at bats as a DH and the Twins also have guys like Miranda, Julien, Wallner, and Larnach who have some days where they are the DH. Alonso isn't even on the radar for MN. I think I would be flabbergasted and I have stated often that I have zero idea what Falvey thinks or plans for the roster.

I am skeptical he's gets $30M/year.  It's also a no go if he's a DH but he seems adequate defensively.  He's probably not a fit here.  Perhaps the best use of the money would be 1-2 year contracts to fill holes that would allow for future investment in FAs or extensions.   I am not putting much emphasis on the OF because I believe Rodriguez will be up before the mid-point of the season and Keascall/Jenkins are also on the horizon.  Those two are probably 2026 but it does not make sense to sign long-term contracts with Buxton/Wallner and Larnach here now and Rodriguez/Keashall & Jenkins on the horizon.  What would you like to see?   

[sweetmusicviola16]

18 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

What would your trade for Arraez look like?

You know Tony to be honest I don't really know. SD gave up a low top 10 and a top 25 prospect for him and a couple of flyers. They had him for most of a season at fewer dollars and he is now a one year rental himself. So the payout has to be quite a bit lower now of course. I would say something like another lower top 10 and a flyer. Maybe start with someone along the lines of Gabriel Gonzalez and one flyer in return. At 14mil Arraez too doesn't warrant an overpay, maybe the opposite. If you go much by WAR his 2024 doesn't quite match his 2025 salary. However his previous marks of being a 4WAR player would make his 2025 salary look very good. If there could be a good match on players and money, finding room for Arraez I think would be a good addition to  this club. 

[ashbury]

3 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

You know Tony to be honest I don't really know. SD gave up a low top 10 and a top 25 prospect for him and a couple of flyers. They had him for most of a season at fewer dollars and he is now a one year rental himself. So the payout has to be quite a bit lower now of course. I would say something like another lower top 10 and a flyer. Maybe start with someone along the lines of Gabriel Gonzalez and one flyer in return. At 14mil Arraez too doesn't warrant an overpay, maybe the opposite. If you go much by WAR his 2024 doesn't quite match his 2025 salary. However his previous marks of being a 4WAR player would make his 2025 salary look very good. If there could be a good match on players and money, finding room for Arraez I think would be a good addition to  this club. 

Can't-miss prospects Byron Chourio and Jose Salas going to the Pads would carry a certain poetic symmetry. 😀

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

You know Tony to be honest I don't really know. SD gave up a low top 10 and a top 25 prospect for him and a couple of flyers. They had him for most of a season at fewer dollars and he is now a one year rental himself. So the payout has to be quite a bit lower now of course. I would say something like another lower top 10 and a flyer. Maybe start with someone along the lines of Gabriel Gonzalez and one flyer in return. At 14mil Arraez too doesn't warrant an overpay, maybe the opposite. If you go much by WAR his 2024 doesn't quite match his 2025 salary. However his previous marks of being a 4WAR player would make his 2025 salary look very good. If there could be a good match on players and money, finding room for Arraez I think would be a good addition to  this club. 

Luis Arraez plays with enthusiasm. His plate appearances are almost always a joy because he frustrates really good pitchers and fights through every at bat. However, he is a player without a position mostly, has very little power, and most damning (for me) is his inability to move around the bases. If i had to identify why Arraez, for his salary, is not a fit for the Twins or many other teams it is because he clogs up the base paths like an older power hitter. I still tuned into a number of his at bats last season via mlb.com, but I'm not expecting Arraez back with the Twins. If salary suddenly and unexpectedly was not an issue whatsoever, sure, trade Gonzalez, Martin, and another low level prospect for Arraez.