Should The Twins Be Investing In The Rotation?

[mnfireman]

46 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

His 1st 33 games (22% of his season) were with the Marlins (not exactly Murderer’s Row)  ……he also had a slow start in ‘24.

Arraez was on pace (162 games) to score 108 runs, drive in 25 runs and have 201 hits with a slash line of .299/.347/.372  (.719 OPS) for the Marlins, only one Marlin batter had more than 70 RBI.

He was on pace (162 games) to score 88 runs, drive in 41 runs and have 220 hits with a slash line of .318/.346/.398 (.744 OPS) for the Padres, batting in front of Tatis, Profar, Machado, Merrill, Bogaerts and Croenenworth, 4 of whom had 83 or more RBI (Tatis was on pace for 78 RBI, Bogaerts 65).

HIs Marlins start was not slow. The Padres had better hitters behind him. He was going to score more runs for Miami.

He was 4th in MLB AVG, 28th in MLB OBP, 100th in MLB SLG, and 77th in MLB OPS. He was -13 OAA defensively at 1B and 2B. His whole game revolves around his AVG. When that starts to fail he will be out of MLB.  

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

When a team trades prospects it is generally the ones that the trading team thinks wont make a difference if they make the major leagues.  Look at how little the White Sox got out of the trades of Eaton, Sale and Quintana. 2 great years out of Giolito, and 2 great and one K out of Cease with the return of 2 maye prospects. Miami traded for a lot of players with their stars through the years. Alcantara is about all they have to show for it 

I put this data together specifically to quantify the relative impact of the various methods of acquisition after reading many posts here debating the merit of each strategy.  This is not anecdotal.  I identified EVERY player that produced at least 1.5 WAR for EVERY team that produced 90 or more wins.  The five categories were Drafted / International Draft / Acquired as a Prospect (which is defined as never having produced 1.5 WAR) Trade for Established Player (a player that has produced 1.5 WAR in a season, and Free Agents.  Among Cleveland Teams producing 90 or more wins, players acquired as prospects produced 44% of WAR.  Established players acquired in trade produced 2.6% of WAR.  Note: I missed Carlos Sanatana the 2nd time he was with Cleveland so the number is probably around 4%.

If those teams didn't think those players would produce, they were wrong.  Cleveland, Tampa, and Oakland have all badly outpaced other teams in the bottom half of revenue.  Those three teams have done the best job managing assets and that's why they have been better than Chicago and Minnesota.

 

[Karbo]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

You are correct about the Twins not being a favorite to win the ALCS and that it is a lot to give up for a rental pitcher. 

My view is that the Twins can get by without Raya or SWR or Matthews, although I'm quite hesitant to trade either of Matthews or SWR. The Twins can get by without Larnach or Castro, although i prefer to hold Larnach. The Twins can afford to add Gabriel Gonzalez and Cory Lewis to a deal. Losing Vazquez can be overcome with a trade or signing as well, although I believe in Vazquez as a catcher. I also think the Twins are not adverse to adding a small amount to payroll.

So the trade makes sense for a couple of reasons. One it solidifies the top four SP and gives the #5 guy less pressure. It relieves the bullpen a fair amount because Cease throws a ton of innings versus a typical #4/5 pitcher. The pressure on the offense is relieved to an extent. The players who need to step up as young players or rookies are put into a favorable position. The Twins do not lose anyone who is crucial to their team success.

 

Still just a 1 year rental, unless they plan on offering up some sort of high buck contract to him, which is hard to do if you don't know who the owners will be, or what they will do with payroll.

[tony&rodney]

24 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Still just a 1 year rental, unless they plan on offering up some sort of high buck contract to him, which is hard to do if you don't know who the owners will be, or what they will do with payroll.

Hey, I'm really content with the current guys (Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Ryan,SWR), but if the Twins can add Cease for one year without losing a top prospect or a key player, do it.

[arby58]

5 hours ago, old nurse said:

When you tout the difference in runs scored you have to be pretty blind not to consider runs scored. Castro and Arraez had the about the same OPB and AB as Castro. Compare and contrast those two and see that there is not that much of a difference in runs scored 

Castro scored 6 more runs in 37 less plate appearances. If you equalized the plate appearances and pro-rated the runs scored, Castro would have had 94 runs scored versus Arraez' 83. That would be 9 percent more runs scored, which is not insubstantial.

[arby58]

5 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

His 1st 33 games (22% of his season) were with the Marlins (not exactly Murderer’s Row)  ……he also had a slow start in ‘24.

He had 75 more AB’s than Castro……Castro struck out 150 times and Arraez struck out 29 times………Castro had a 10-15 point better OBP. I’d rather have Arraez hitting with RISP than Castro…….don’t need walks - HBP - K’s with guys in Scoring Position!

I put his high contact bat at the 5th or 6th spot and you get protection for the batter in front of Arraez and Luis gets 85 RBI hitting regularly with RISP. High Average doesn’t need to bat 1 or 2.

Anybody that averages (576/3) 192 hits per season over past 3 All-star seasons can help score more runs if utilized properly in a line-up.

Ralph Kiner had it right: "Home run hitters drive Cadillacs, singles hitters drive Chevys."

[ashbury]

4 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Ralph Kiner had it right: "Home run hitters drive Cadillacs, singles hitters drive Chevys."

False.

They drive Fords.

[tony&rodney]

With the salaries earned by MLB players today, they drive whatever they want.

[jmlease1]

Nothing like Luis Arraez to derail a thread about whether the Twins should invest in the rotation!

I'd love for the Twins to add Cease to the rotation: superior starting pitching wins a lot of games. I think we can survive losing Vazquez (a terrible hitter at this point), but I don't know how high we'd have to go on the prospects to get it done, and I'd be concerned about him being a rental too. It certainly would make it easier to deal Paddack if the rotation was starting at Lopez, Cease, Ober, Ryan, and SWR. (and if SWR was part of the package, Festa slots in just fine). Boy, that rotation looks good. But I wouldn't trade Ober or Ryan as part of that deal, because with our current payroll limitations, how do we keep Cease? It'd be a big gamble on new ownership.

(and it's pretty laughable to think of Arraez coming back to the Twins this season; SD is looking to move him because of salary; the Twins are going to take on $14M in salary for an injury-prone singles-hitting DH who doesn't hit LHP well and can't run just because his AB's are fun to watch? Whose salary are we shedding to fit Arraez on the roster and make us net worse just to make the people who hate Ks happy?)

[old nurse]

21 hours ago, ashbury said:

Similar numbers with better defense (not that Castro is a Gold Glover at SS or anywhere else) means not similar players.

Not sure why you're bringing up Willi, though.  The question was why Arraez, with his lofty BA, doesn't score more runs.  Especially given the dismissal of his low RBIs as not being part of his game and thus not even worth holding against him as a player overall.

BA is important.  It's what makes Luis Arraez a legitimate major leaguer.  But BA is not the only measure of a player's offense.

The average for a batter who did not hit a HR but got on base was 32%. The average for Arraez 37%. He was above average in that regards. You could point to the stat that the percent chance of scoring from 1b with no outs is 38%. That would make Arraez as the leadoff hitter below average. The flaw is that out of his 4-5 AB, he leads off an inning for sure only once a game. Their 9th alters were the catchers who had sub .300 OBP. The likelihood would e high that there was at least one out when Arraez came to bat. The likelihood of scoring goes down to below 20%. 

As I said earlier Castro last year had similar OBP to Arraez and similar numbers to Arraez in runs scored. If Arraez is a player not worth having for his batting and below average defense then why would they e keeping Castro 

to answer the question why does it seam like Arraez is LOB more often than others would be because he is on base more 

[old nurse]

16 hours ago, arby58 said:

Castro scored 6 more runs in 37 less plate appearances. If you equalized the plate appearances and pro-rated the runs scored, Castro would have had 94 runs scored versus Arraez' 83. That would be 9 percent more runs scored, which is not insubstantial.

Those 6 runs were by home runs. Your complaint was Arraez not scoring when on base Castro is no better than Arraez at scoring when on base 

[arby58]

3 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Those 6 runs were by home runs. Your complaint was Arraez not scoring when on base Castro is no better than Arraez at scoring when on base 

It's far easier to drive in yourself than to rely on somebody else having to do that.

[Fatbat]

6 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Nothing like Luis Arraez to derail a thread about whether the Twins should invest in the rotation!

I'd love for the Twins to add Cease to the rotation: superior starting pitching wins a lot of games. I think we can survive losing Vazquez (a terrible hitter at this point), but I don't know how high we'd have to go on the prospects to get it done, and I'd be concerned about him being a rental too. It certainly would make it easier to deal Paddack if the rotation was starting at Lopez, Cease, Ober, Ryan, and SWR. (and if SWR was part of the package, Festa slots in just fine). Boy, that rotation looks good. But I wouldn't trade Ober or Ryan as part of that deal, because with our current payroll limitations, how do we keep Cease? It'd be a big gamble on new ownership.

(and it's pretty laughable to think of Arraez coming back to the Twins this season; SD is looking to move him because of salary; the Twins are going to take on $14M in salary for an injury-prone singles-hitting DH who doesn't hit LHP well and can't run just because his AB's are fun to watch? Whose salary are we shedding to fit Arraez on the roster and make us net worse just to make the people who hate Ks happy?)

If Arraez brings an extra 250000 people to target center at an average price of $100/ticket or total of $200/person experience, does he really cost 14M? 

 

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

If Arraez brings an extra 250000 people to target center at an average price of $100/ticket or total of $200/person experience, does he really cost 14M? 

 

Arraez is not playing for the Twins again, as close to zero as anyone.

Invest in a starting pitcher? Gone over thoroughly and now up to Preller and Favey. A new rumor suggests San Diego is gaging interest in another one of their starting pitchers due for free agency next year, Michael King. There is no way King returns half of what Cease can bring to the Padres roster. Preller has his work cut out for him. Falvey can dictate any terms. Thinking from Preller's pov, the Pads ask for Matthews, Larnach, Julien, and Vazquez for Cease. San Diego has 35 players on their 40 person roster. No idea what Falvey thinks.

Curious what BTV thinks of something like the above?

[Fatbat]

36 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Arraez is not playing for the Twins again, as close to zero as anyone.

Invest in a starting pitcher? Gone over thoroughly and now up to Preller and Favey. A new rumor suggests San Diego is gaging interest in another one of their starting pitchers due for free agency next year, Michael King. There is no way King returns half of what Cease can bring to the Padres roster. Preller has his work cut out for him. Falvey can dictate any terms. Thinking from Preller's pov, the Pads ask for Matthews, Larnach, Julien, and Vazquez for Cease. San Diego has 35 players on their 40 person roster. No idea what Falvey thinks.

Curious what BTV thinks of something like the above?

You are right that Arraez isnt coming back but some of us can dream of it. Lol. 
As good as our rotation can be, I still want another #1 ace. I’m selfish that way.  Listening to guys on the twinfest circuit, I would bet that nothing happens with any trades or FA signings until ownership transfer is closer. 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

If Arraez brings an extra 250000 people to target center at an average price of $100/ticket or total of $200/person experience, does he really cost 14M?

Right, because Twins attendance sagged 250,000 when Arraez was unceremoniously shown the door.  Attendance in his last season with the Twins, 2022, was 1,801,128, while in 2023 it dropped to 1,974,124. Wait, I may have miscounted something... 😀

[Fatbat]

9 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Right, because Twins attendance sagged 250,000 when Arraez was unceremoniously shown the door.  Attendance in his last season with the Twins, 2022, was 1,801,128, while in 2023 it dropped to 1,974,124. Wait, I may have miscounted something... 😀

and ‘24 when ownership right sized and we tanked in august. What did attendance end up at?  You invest in the right players and that helps us make a deep playoff run and you could have 2.4M attendance total in ‘25. Nice mathing tho 🤓

[jmlease1]

14 hours ago, Fatbat said:

and ‘24 when ownership right sized and we tanked in august. What did attendance end up at?  You invest in the right players and that helps us make a deep playoff run and you could have 2.4M attendance total in ‘25. Nice mathing tho 🤓

The idea that Luis Arraez will bring in 3,000+ fans per game all by himself is pretty silly, though. Signing/trading for anyone to improve the club would certainly make a difference in attendance, especially early in the season and would help contradict the awful end of season narrative. Ownership screwed themselves and the team with their tight-fisted ways after 2023 and it has nothing to do with Arraez.

Here's the thing though: Arraez probably doesn't actually help the Twins all that much. He's a limited defender with a real injury history. He doesn't hit for power, and he's not taking walks like he used to. His OPS is also 145 pts lower against LHP, and one of the bigger needs for the Twins is some thump against LHP. I'm sure if he;s healthy Arraez will be somewhat better than last season, but he's still going to be below average or worse against LHP: he's basically never been good against LHP. So how is spending $14M on a limited player who doesn't really address team needs and should be platooned a good idea? SD's not taking on money to move him. He's just a bad fit.

And I say this as someone who likes Arraez. Fun player, good dude. But bad fit for the cash-strapped Twins who need a RH hitter, not a slow singles hitter who is meh defensively and can't hit LHP.