Should The Twins Be Investing In The Rotation?

[Finlander]

Invest in established, talented, hopefully healthy pitching, especially when the window is still open. We've seen what bargain bin/rehab cases do. And we saw what happened for the last month or two of last season.

New ownership will not be frightened off by having a short term ace added to the roster - bodes well for making any kind of playoff run. Recall, Twins were a playoff shoo-in up until mid to late August, when the wheels came off. Losing SP Ryan to injury contributed to that. Pitching can be flipped for the right position bat as needed. We have a strong farm, perhaps positionally lopsided a little bit, but plenty of talent. They won't all make it. We also have a competitive balance pick this year. If we get Cease, and he walks after 2025, we'll get another pick in 2026. What's not to like? Give SD Vasquez, Larnach, SWR and a lottery ticket, grab Cease plus a decent prospect, and ride the train.

[Karbo]

I just don't like adding an expensive 1 year rental unless you think it's the one piece that puts you over the top. The Twins just have too many questions for me to pull the trigger.

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Cleveland and Tampa have put far more competitive (90 or more wins) teams on the field than the other teams in the bottom half of revenue.  If you look at how Cleveland for example build their rosters, they used the exact opposite approach.  They traded short-term assets for long-term assets.  They have produced roughly the same amount of WAR from players acquired as prospects as they have through the draft and international signings combined.  Not one player that produced more than 1.5 WAR on any of their 90-win teams was acquired in an off-season trade,       

Giménez had already been in the majors when acquired. I think he beat the 1.5 war season by a little bit as did Classe, another off season acquisition with MLB experience. Yes they were long term assets, but they were already in the majors 

[old nurse]

Adding a pitcher capable of being a top of the rotation pitcher makes sense if you think the troubled seasons of your core position players are behind them and Miranda,, Lee, Wallner,  and Larnach are going to develop further.  That is a lot to expect. On the other hand it is far easier to win a game when the SP gives up 2 runs rather than 3 or 4. If the club is indeed going to be sold this spring adding players that are a proven quality is not going to harm the sale in the least bit 

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

They can add Cease and a 1b via trade (let’s call him Ryan Mountcastle) and not by any means empty the farm system to do that. 

Agreed.

If San Diego is willing to trade Cease for Vazquez and another lesser player it’s a good move……Ronny Henriquez maybe? Nice shot in the arm for rotation and at least gives team, under new ownership, ability to consider extending Cease based on fit & performance in ‘25.

Matthews for Mountcastle?…….. Keaschall by June/July as depth at 1B & 2B.

Paddack - Topa - Stewart - Varland - Headrick as additions to the PEN as health allows.

Need to trade, potentially Duran and somebody, for a Catcher! I guess they could keep the PEN strong and sign a $2-$4M FA Catcher like Maille or Casali?

[arby58]

5 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Arraez would also make for a nice long term DH if the new ownership want to focus on base runners instead of underperforming HR hitters. Erod and Jenkins will be here very soon so I wouldn’t look for a replacement when Kiersey is already available in AAA to fill in as a short term starter and long term 4/5 OF.  No more Margots are needed. 

The Arraez love affair never ceases to amaze me. He wins batting titles, but it doesn't translate into many runs scored, as he doesn't run well and lacks power. So, he had the fourth best batting average in MLB last year but was 39th in runs scored. He's not great defensively either. As a result, he was little more than a replacement player, with a WAR of 1.1.  That would have ranked him just ahead of everybody's favorite former Twin whipping boy, Max Kepler, who had a WAR of 1.0.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

Giménez had already been in the majors when acquired. I think he beat the 1.5 war season by a little bit as did Classe, another off season acquisition with MLB experience. Yes they were long term assets, but they were already in the majors 

When I put this information together for all the playoff teams, the point was to quantify the WAR from various acquisition methods.  One of those methods is trades but I differentiate trading for prospects and trading for established players given they are very different strategies.  The bar I used for established is a player that has produced a 1.5 WAR season which I think of as a relatively low bar.  When we speak of acquiring established performers, we are normally talking about someone considerably more established than this bar.  Gimenez had one season at 1.2 WAR and Clase produced .4 WAR.  

[Fatbat]

27 minutes ago, arby58 said:

The Arraez love affair never ceases to amaze me. He wins batting titles, but it doesn't translate into many runs scored, as he doesn't run well and lacks power. So, he had the fourth best batting average in MLB last year but was 39th in runs scored. He's not great defensively either. As a result, he was little more than a replacement player, with a WAR of 1.1.  That would have ranked him just ahead of everybody's favorite former Twin whipping boy, Max Kepler, who had a WAR of 1.0.

He is entertaining and on base every game. He isn’t expensive and he could be used at 1st base and DH this year.  With a healthy Lewis, C4, Buck and Wallner batting behind him, he will score 100+ runs. He is far from perfect but he adds everything we need in our lineup. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

I just don't like adding an expensive 1 year rental unless you think it's the one piece that puts you over the top. The Twins just have too many questions for me to pull the trigger.

Generally speaking, Falvey will make his offer based on his belief in those players who would pick up the slack from trading valued players. The Twins can (I don't know if they should/I would) offer a package of 1. Woods Richardson or Matthews; 2. Larnach or Castro; and Vazquez for Cease. The Twins could substitute a couple of prospects such as Cory Lewis or Kaelen Culpepper as well or maybe float Julien. Preller should not hear the names of Jenkins, Keaschall, or Rodriguez. San Diego needs a SP, LF, DH or 1B. The Padres are also expected to trade Arraez but he doesn't add the punch the Twins need for their offense. I would actually be hesitant to add either of Larnach or Matthews in a deal, but it could be argued that the Twins are reasonably covered in those positions.

My largest concern is how the Twins replace an MLB catcher (Vazquez) with guys who have struggled at AA/AAA. If Falvey pulls off that trade he must quickly close the catcher hole with a signing or additional trade. All of these moves can be made if the Twins believe in the players filling the gaps for traded guys.

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

This is actually an easy answer. Dylan Cease increases the win total by roughly two (at a minimum). The cost cannot be any of Jenkins, Rodriguez, or Keaschall any more than Baltimore is sending Basallo or Mayo. The Twins don't need Cease but they can acquire him with a combination of players and prospects that the Minnesota franchise can afford to deal, even while San Diego receives players to fill their needs. It is a want for needs deal

The comment about trading for a high impact position player, a bat, continues to baffle me. Why write that comment if you cannot put out the name of a player who might be reasonably available. Margot, Grichuk, and many others are not those players. Austin Hays would be ok only, but not an impact player. Mountcastle is another player who might be ok, but is he really better than Miranda. Patiently I wait for ideas of a substantial trade to surface involving names instead of the obvious "The Twins should concentrate their resources towards acquiring an impact bat." Please don't suggest a swap of Julien, Paddack, Vazquez, and Martin for Vladdy Guerrero.

Finally, I have stated all offseason that the Twins would or could add minimally to the 2025 26 person payroll within a roughly $10 million region. Adding Cease and Arraez for prospects isn't an answer either plus Arraez is not an impact bat (apologies to those who hold a different view).

Waiting.

Grichuk hit .291 with a 2.2 WAR in ‘24

Hays hit .251 with a -0.1 WAR  in ‘24

Not thinking Grichuk makes sense but Hays could doesn’t make sense to me. It was Grichuk’s best year, arguably. Hays obviously didn’t have a good year. Seems picking up Grichuk could be a nice fit for many Teams…..at what cost though? He may be in the $10-$14M range in today’s market.

I probably stick with Martin & Kiersey behind Larnach - Buxton - Wallner to start the year. Focus $$ spending on 1B &/or Catcher. Castro, if still here, is solid OF depth as well.

If they can move Vazquez and Castro to San Diego or maybe Vazquez & Matthews (or like young arm) for CEASE it should be acted on right away. Shifting Ryan to a #3-#4 starter makes the Rotation look awfully formidable!!

Keep SWR & Festa as 23 & 25 year olds in ‘25!

[JD-TWINS]

13 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Generally speaking, Falvey will make his offer based on his belief in those players who would pick up the slack from trading valued players. The Twins can (I don't know if they should/I would) offer a package of 1. Woods Richardson or Matthews; 2. Larnach or Castro; and Vazquez for Cease. The Twins could substitute a couple of prospects such as Cory Lewis or Kaelen Culpepper as well or maybe float Julien. Preller should not hear the names of Jenkins, Keaschall, or Rodriguez. San Diego needs a SP, LF, DH or 1B. The Padres are also expected to trade Arraez but he doesn't add the punch the Twins need for their offense. I would actually be hesitant to add either of Larnach or Matthews in a deal, but it could be argued that the Twins are reasonably covered in those positions.

My largest concern is how the Twins replace an MLB catcher (Vazquez) with guys who have struggled at AA/AAA. If Falvey pulls off that trade he must quickly close the catcher hole with a signing or additional trade. All of these moves can be made if the Twins believe in the players filling the gaps for traded guys.

Seems Castro would bring good value as a potential starting LF and as some infield depth for Padres. They have interest in Vazquez. Those 2 guys & a AA or less pitcher for Cease makes sense to me.

Cease is only around for a year…..on paper.

Maille or Casali could be signed in the $3-$4M range, maximum as 2nd Catcher for at least 3-4 months of ‘25.

Not trading Larnach…….certainly not in a deal for a single guy that’s under Team control for only one season.

[FargoFanMan]

If they’re getting Cease then they’re sending one of Ober, Ryan, SWR or Festa to the Padres for Cease. The Padres don’t want a prospect package. They want to fill holes and shed payroll. They’re not rebuilding. This article is very disingenuous by thinking the Twins would be sending a prospect package with no MLB caliber pitcher. The Twins are not stock piling pitchers here. The Padres want pitchers. Just not a $13.75M pitcher. Come on now. Bring a better talking point as an article.

[FargoFanMan]

3 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Seems Castro would bring good value as a potential starting LF and as some infield depth for Padres. They have interest in Vazquez. Those 2 guys & a AA or less pitcher for Cease makes sense to me.

Cease is only around for a year…..on paper.

Maille or Casali could be signed in the $3-$4M range, maximum as 2nd Catcher for at least 3-4 months of ‘25.

Not trading Larnach…….certainly not in a deal for a single guy that’s under Team control for only one season.

They probably want one of those guys. Either Larnach or Castro as it fills a hole for them. They also want a SP. probably one of Festa or SWR. Along with a prospect. 

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

He is entertaining and on base every game. He isn’t expensive and he could be used at 1st base and DH this year.  With a healthy Lewis, C4, Buck and Wallner batting behind him, he will score 100+ runs. He is far from perfect but he adds everything we need in our lineup. 

He had 500 at bats with the Padres last year (a good hitting team that was 8th in MLB in runs scored) and scored 61 runs - that is not someone who is going to score 100+ runs. In fact, he's never done it. The best he's done was 88 with the Twins in 2022. Meanwhile, his OPS+ last year was 106 - not particularly impressive. Plus, he clogs up the bases because he is a slow baserunner. All that for $14 million in 2025? No thanks.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

The Arraez love affair never ceases to amaze me. He wins batting titles, but it doesn't translate into many runs scored, as he doesn't run well and lacks power. So, he had the fourth best batting average in MLB last year but was 39th in runs scored. He's not great defensively either. As a result, he was little more than a replacement player, with a WAR of 1.1.  That would have ranked him just ahead of everybody's favorite former Twin whipping boy, Max Kepler, who had a WAR of 1.0.

I do think that a guy that can routinely deliver at the plate is valuable!

The conventional thinking in baseball is you bat high average guys “up in the line-up” but I see value in Arraez as a protector of another bat in the line-up and as a guy that can drive in runs with RISP. If he hits 5th or 6th instead of 1st or 2nd he protects Lewis - Correa - Larnach - Wallner……whoever is hitting just ahead of him. Nobody wants to pitch to a guy that doesn’t strike out with guys on base so they throw the guy in front of him strikes!

He can play 1B ….. a little 2B …… DH. He’s Donovan Solano versatility wise, only better defensively and much better offensively. I understand that $14M is a fair amount for this Twin’s payroll……….I’d much rather have Arraez coming to the plate with RISP than Willi Castro.

[JD-TWINS]

14 minutes ago, FargoFanMan said:

If they’re getting Cease then they’re sending one of Ober, Ryan, SWR or Festa to the Padres for Cease. The Padres don’t want a prospect package. They want to fill holes and shed payroll. They’re not rebuilding. This article is very disingenuous by thinking the Twins would be sending a prospect package with no MLB caliber pitcher. The Twins are not stock piling pitchers here. The Padres want pitchers. Just not a $13.75M pitcher. Come on now. Bring a better talking point as an article.

They want Vazquez. Cease has 1 year of control. Those are the basics of the deal.

I agree, they would like an arm that’s at least “fringe MLB ready”…….to me, Matthews is as high as I go…….maybe consider SWR?

Castro, with Vazquez & Matthews, seems to fill out a reasonable package from the Twins.

[tony&rodney]

26 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Not thinking Grichuk makes sense but Hays could doesn’t make sense to me. It was Grichuk’s best year, arguably. Hays obviously didn’t have a good year. Seems picking up Grichuk could be a nice fit for many Teams…..at what cost though? He may be in the $10-$14M range in today’s market.

I'm not in on either really. My ok was trying to be open to $4M for one or the other, so no on both. I'm in on Cease. 

[tony&rodney]

25 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Seems Castro would bring good value as a potential starting LF and as some infield depth for Padres. They have interest in Vazquez. Those 2 guys & a AA or less pitcher for Cease makes sense to me.

Cease is only around for a year…..on paper.

Maille or Casali could be signed in the $3-$4M range, maximum as 2nd Catcher for at least 3-4 months of ‘25.

Not trading Larnach…….certainly not in a deal for a single guy that’s under Team control for only one season.

Don't disagree with anything here. I am in the dark about what either Preller or Falvey want to do. I think Casali has signed a minor league deal already.

Bottom line, it sure would be sweet to add Cease for what is affordable. He stays healthy, throws innings, and strikes out people. It allows for a little more time for our younger pitchers too. i think the biggest difference is that adding another good starter reduces the pressure on the offense.

[arby58]

12 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I do think that a guy that can routinely deliver at the plate is valuable!

The conventional thinking in baseball is you bat high average guys “up in the line-up” but I see value in Arraez as a protector of another bat in the line-up and as a guy that can drive in runs with RISP. If he hits 5th or 6th instead of 1st or 2nd he protects Lewis - Correa - Larnach - Wallner……whoever is hitting just ahead of him. Nobody wants to pitch to a guy that doesn’t strike out with guys on base so they throw the guy in front of him strikes!

He can play 1B ….. a little 2B …… DH. He’s Donovan Solano versatility wise, only better defensively and much better offensively. I understand that $14M is a fair amount for this Twin’s payroll……….I’d much rather have Arraez coming to the plate with RISP than Willi Castro.

Last year, Arraez' OBP was .347, and Castro was .331, so not a huge difference. Castro scored more runs, probably because he runs better and has more pop. Castro had a better WAR, and he's a better defensive player. The biggest difference is salary - Castro's is $6.4 million versus Arraez' $14 million. I'll take Castro.

[Jocko87]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Good Pitching... they should invest in. 

Innings eaters... they should not spend a dime. 

Last year we were discussing a pitching addition in terms of the clearing the line of what we currently had.  We discussed clearing the Ryan line, the Ober line, even the SWR line.  There may even have been a Disco line.

This year the line is clearly clearing Pablo, without losing Pablo. 

Moving Pablo to add another Pablo is just a variation of the innings eater addition. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I love Arraez as much as the next guy, but there is a reason why Arraez will be playing for his 4th team in 4 years.  The overall value is just not there.

I have said this in another thread, but the Twins should not make a move for Cease unless they sign him to an extension and invest more salary money to improve the team.

As for an actual trade, Cease for Vazquez, SWR, and a prospect in the 10-14 ranked range.

[JD-TWINS]

19 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Last year, Arraez' OBP was .347, and Castro was .331, so not a huge difference. Castro scored more runs, probably because he runs better and has more pop. Castro had a better WAR, and he's a better defensive player. The biggest difference is salary - Castro's is $6.4 million versus Arraez' $14 million. I'll take Castro.

Castro is undoubtedly a better defender and probably 1.0 WAR better just defensively, easily. Arraez gets negative WAR for his DH at bats.

My thought is, if a guy gets 200 hits and only has 1.0 WAR, the defensive negative is dragging his WAR total down ……at 1B or DH Arraez isn’t “hurting” any team defensively, IMO. Also, if a guy gets 200 hits and has 1.0 WAR, he’s hitting in the wrong spot in the line-up! ……,,he doesn’t run well and should be hitting in the 5 or 6 spot.

Also, Arraez had a very slow start for him while in Miami for the first 7-8 weeks of the year - not getting driven in much either with the Marlin’s line-up.

Castro struck out 150 times and Arraez struck out 29 times. Arraez had 75 more AB’s while striking out 121 less times.

If there are RISP I would sacrifice the power trade off between these two and the OBP difference. I don’t need a walk or a strikeout with RISP - I need contact and a high probability of a base hit.

[FargoFanMan]

43 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

They want Vazquez. Cease has 1 year of control. Those are the basics of the deal.

I agree, they would like an arm that’s at least “fringe MLB ready”…….to me, Matthews is as high as I go…….maybe consider SWR?

Castro, with Vazquez & Matthews, seems to fill out a reasonable package from the Twins.

Agreed! Castro and Vazquez. Then they want someone who they can plug right into the rotation today. My thinking is they probably want Ober, Ryan or Festa. The Twins probably only wanna give up Raya, Morris, Culpepper or Lewis. I think they settle in the middle with SWR or Matthew’s. Preferably they deal SWR. Or they go the Larnach route in place of Castro and then I think Keaschall is involved along with Raya, Morris, Mathews, SWR and Festa. I would think you could involve Paddack in there but it seems they are unsure about him.

[ashbury]

27 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I have said this in another thread, but the Twins should not make a move for Cease unless they sign him to an extension

Folks keep saying this.   What do you think are the basic outlines (years, AAV) of a contract offer that Dylan Cease would actually accept, one year away from free agency, from a new team like the Twins with whom he has no established relationship except as a divisional rival?

[FargoFanMan]

13 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Castro is undoubtedly a better defender and probably 1.0 WAR better just defensively, easily. Arraez gets negative WAR for his DH at bats.

My thought is, if a guy gets 200 hits and only has 1.0 WAR, the defensive negative is dragging his WAR total down ……at 1B or DH Arraez isn’t “hurting” any team defensively, IMO. Also, if a guy gets 200 hits and has 1.0 WAR, he’s hitting in the wrong spot in the line-up! ……,,he doesn’t run well and should be hitting in the 5 or 6 spot.

Also, Arraez had a very slow start for him while in Miami for the first 7-8 weeks of the year - not getting driven in much either with the Marlin’s line-up.

Castro struck out 150 times and Arraez struck out 29 times. Arraez had 75 more AB’s while striking out 121 less times.

If there are RISP I would sacrifice the power trade off between these two and the OBP difference. I don’t need a walk or a strikeout with RISP - I need contact and a high probability of a base hit.

Castro is far and away a better player. I agree that Arraez needs to be batting probably 4-5-6-7 in a deep lineup. You want him driving in runs. Not getting on base and clogging the base paths with his station to station only ability. I think at this stage he’s strictly a DH which severely diminishes his WAR value and makes that $14M look less desirable.

[Riverbrian]

48 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Last year we were discussing a pitching addition in terms of the clearing the line of what we currently had.  We discussed clearing the Ryan line, the Ober line, even the SWR line.  There may even have been a Disco line.

This year the line is clearly clearing Pablo, without losing Pablo. 

Moving Pablo to add another Pablo is just a variation of the innings eater addition. 

Like a plumber... Like a bouncer at a popular night club. Like shaking an etch-o-sketch. 

Roster building is all about clearing lines. 

[FargoFanMan]

3 minutes ago, ashbury said:

 Folks keep saying this.   What do you think are the basic outlines (years, AAV) of a contract offer that he would actually accept, one year away from free agency, from a new team like the Twins with whom he has no established relationship except as a divisional rival?

I don’t believe the Twins should be playing in that end of the pool when they have young controllable pitching coming up. You simply take his top of the rotation stuff for a year combined with the 3-5 WAR he provides for one year and you let him go get paid and have someone else pay him $30M a year into his 30’s. Give him the QO and collect your draft pick. Overall he’s a tick behind Burnes. Probably gets as of right now 6-7 years and 28-32 per year. The Twins don’t need to go fishing in that pond.

[FargoFanMan]

52 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Last year we were discussing a pitching addition in terms of the clearing the line of what we currently had.  We discussed clearing the Ryan line, the Ober line, even the SWR line.  There may even have been a Disco line.

This year the line is clearly clearing Pablo, without losing Pablo. 

Moving Pablo to add another Pablo is just a variation of the innings eater addition. 

They’re not trading Pablo. The whole let’s trade Pablo or Correa or Buxton to clear up money boat sank when 3/4 of the top 50 FA’s signed. It’s trade season now until opening day.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, FargoFanMan said:

Agreed! Castro and Vazquez. Then they want someone who they can plug right into the rotation today. My thinking is they probably want Ober, Ryan or Festa. The Twins probably only wanna give up Raya, Morris, Culpepper or Lewis. I think they settle in the middle with SWR or Matthew’s. Preferably they deal SWR. Or they go the Larnach route in place of Castro and then I think Keaschall is involved along with Raya, Morris, Mathews, SWR and Festa. I would think you could involve Paddack in there but it seems they are unsure about him.

So I get some of this but toward the end it seems like we might trade 4-5 guys for Cease and Vazquez isn’t one of them…….my impression was he was their original reason for having a discussion? No way we send more than 3 players total for Cease.

As you know, there’s about 27 teams that want Ober, Ryan, or Festa……..they aren’t going anywhere & certainly not for a 1 year guy.

Vazquez - Matthews - maybe a minor leaguer? OR, Vazquez - Castro - a lower level arm?

I think Raya might be just below Festa in the Twin’s future view.

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

When I put this information together for all the playoff teams, the point was to quantify the WAR from various acquisition methods.  One of those methods is trades but I differentiate trading for prospects and trading for established players given they are very different strategies.  The bar I used for established is a player that has produced a 1.5 WAR season which I think of as a relatively low bar.  When we speak of acquiring established performers, we are normally talking about someone considerably more established than this bar.  Gimenez had one season at 1.2 WAR and Clase produced .4 WAR.  

You missed that they added Ahmed Rosario as a veteran having 1.5 war before and after the trade.  Also as a winter deal, they traded for a first base a man who later played for the Twins. They gave up Yandy Diaz as a prospect