Should The Twins Be Investing In The Rotation?

[arby58]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Castro is undoubtedly a better defender and probably 1.0 WAR better just defensively, easily. Arraez gets negative WAR for his DH at bats.

My thought is, if a guy gets 200 hits and only has 1.0 WAR, the defensive negative is dragging his WAR total down ……at 1B or DH Arraez isn’t “hurting” any team defensively, IMO. Also, if a guy gets 200 hits and has 1.0 WAR, he’s hitting in the wrong spot in the line-up! ……,,he doesn’t run well and should be hitting in the 5 or 6 spot.

Also, Arraez had a very slow start for him while in Miami for the first 7-8 weeks of the year - not getting driven in much either with the Marlin’s line-up.

Castro struck out 150 times and Arraez struck out 29 times. Arraez had 75 more AB’s while striking out 121 less times.

If there are RISP I would sacrifice the power trade off between these two and the OBP difference. I don’t need a walk or a strikeout with RISP - I need contact and a high probability of a base hit.

Arraez had 524 plate appearances for the Padres, a good offensive team; he scored 61 runs and drove in 41. Neither of those statistics screams out 'impact offensive player.' 

[Western SD Fan]

Here's a couple of things that I don't see anyone discussing that I believe need to be considered:

AJ Preller is a wheeler/dealer. He has not been scared of prospects in the past and uses them basically as trade chips to try to improve his team in the present.  If Preller identifies prospects that he believes he can flip right away, I believe he will take prospects as part of a trade.

As an organization, we should be thinking a little more short-term considering all of the rumblings of a lockout after the 2026 season.  From what is being reported, the majority of owners want some form of a salary cap and are willing to risk a shutdown to get some concessions.  We saw first-hand the effects of what happens to our prospects in the minors when there was a shutdown during the Covid year and a lockout where they cannot graduate to the majors would have the same effect.

I'm not suggesting that we sell the entire farm system to go for it.  We are not that kind of organization and need to stay the course, but sometimes the course picks up speed from time to time.  One final bonus if we are able to acquire Cease or someone like him.  If the season somehow goes haywire by the trade deadline, we can always trade Cease and still recover prospects or offer the QO and take the draft pick at the end of the season.

[arby58]

10 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Arraez would also make for a nice long term DH if the new ownership want to focus on base runners instead of underperforming HR hitters. 

Arraez is hardly a 'base runner.' He's slow and doesn't score all that many runs. Last year, he was 4th in MLB in batting average and 39th in runs scored. He had 524 plate appearances for the Padres and scored 61 runs, drove in 41. Byron Buxton topped those totals in 388 plate appearances (scored 62 and drove in 56).

[stringer bell]

From the title of the thread, I don’t think would be investing if they used potential rotation pieces for one year (and a big salary) of a starting pitcher. In general the price for starting pitching is steep although the Twins were able to land Sonny Gray and López for a reasonable price. 

[old nurse]

5 hours ago, arby58 said:

The Arraez love affair never ceases to amaze me. He wins batting titles, but it doesn't translate into many runs scored, as he doesn't run well and lacks power. So, he had the fourth best batting average in MLB last year but was 39th in runs scored. He's not great defensively either. As a result, he was little more than a replacement player, with a WAR of 1.1.  That would have ranked him just ahead of everybody's favorite former Twin whipping boy, Max Kepler, who had a WAR of 1.0.

Considering is home away splits one could see why he was a 3-4 war player and only a 1.1 while in San Diego. 

[Doctor Gast]

6 hours ago, Karbo said:

I just don't like adding an expensive 1 year rental unless you think it's the one piece that puts you over the top. The Twins just have too many questions for me to pull the trigger.

The 1st sensible statement I've read in this thread. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

Folks keep saying this.   What do you think are the basic outlines (years, AAV) of a contract offer that Dylan Cease would actually accept, one year away from free agency, from a new team like the Twins with whom he has no established relationship except as a divisional rival?

This is a fair question.  I am not saying they would get him at a discount, and the going price for SP is skyrocketing (which is why I have no understanding of people looking to trade Lopez with his relatively inexpensive contract), but trading Cease for one year does not make sense for the Twins.

I would expect something like 4/$120m.  But the Twins would never do this without the new owners permission.

[ashbury]

46 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

This is a fair question.

I don't need to reach consensus on an exact amount.  Another poster suggested something like 6/$200M, which is along the lines I was thinking, as the Buy It Now Price like on EBay to shut out all other buyers before the auction takes place. 

I just mostly wanted to make sure this angle is included in the overall thought process.  I don't believe an extension would be team-friendly like 2 years for $20M apiece - not that anyone has mentioned that figure, but the conversation had seemed pretty sunny and casual on what "an extension" would mean to make a trade worthwhile.

Even with new owners, a one-time splurge of another $30M per year on an extended contract would be a record setter for a pitcher for this franchise, and might be the limit of even their generosity, so it needs to be carefully considered by Falvey, in relation to other big-splash moves he might want to make instead. 

And I can't imagine the Pohlads signing off for $200M, until the new buyer has in turn signed off for their $2B or whatever.  Trading for Cease now might have to happen without an extension in place.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

Arraez is hardly a 'base runner.' He's slow and doesn't score all that many runs. Last year, he was 4th in MLB in batting average and 39th in runs scored. He had 524 plate appearances for the Padres and scored 61 runs, drove in 41. Byron Buxton topped those totals in 388 plate appearances (scored 62 and drove in 56).

Arraez was top of the order so he would have less opportunity to drive in runs whereas Buxton was in the heart of the order. If Arraez did not score as many runs that in part was on the players behind him.  Keep in ind that 18 of those runs Buxton scored was by him driving in himself versus 4 for Arraez 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

You missed that they added Ahmed Rosario as a veteran having 1.5 war before and after the trade.  Also as a winter deal, they traded for a first base a man who later played for the Twins. They gave up Yandy Diaz as a prospect

I did in fact miss Rosario.  However, let's put this in the context of this discussion which centers around employing a strategy of trading for established players vs trading for prospects.  More specifically trading for a high-end player with one year of control.  My original post stated that the Guardians were very inclined to follow the opposite strategy.  Rosario was part of a trade that sent Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carasco to the Mets.  Which strategy would you say was employed in this trade?  

[Parfigliano]

2 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Arraez was top of the order so he would have less opportunity to drive in runs whereas Buxton was in the heart of the order. If Arraez did not score as many runs that in part was on the players behind him.  Keep in ind that 18 of those runs Buxton scored was by him driving in himself versus 4 for Arraez 

It's all on the guys that didn't drive him in.  Arraez did his part by being a great hitter and getting on base.

[arby58]

12 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Arraez was top of the order so he would have less opportunity to drive in runs whereas Buxton was in the heart of the order. If Arraez did not score as many runs that in part was on the players behind him.  Keep in ind that 18 of those runs Buxton scored was by him driving in himself versus 4 for Arraez 

Arraez was in an offense that was 8th in the league in runs scored. The Twins were 10th, so I have a hard time believing his less runs scored were due to the players behind him. He mostly hits singles and doesn't run well. That makes it harder to score runs than if you hit with some power and have some speed. Finally, the fact that Buxton scored himself 18 times versus 4 for Arraez is not an argument in Arraez' favor.

[Brandon]

I think a rotation of Lopez, Cease, Ryan, Ober, Festa would be a crazy good rotation for the season and probably the best in the league.  If the Twins could trade Vazquez, Woods-Richardson  and any number of prospects to even out the trade and maybe 2-3 million cash to help SD cut 5 million-6 million in payroll in the trade and get a low cost starter and a prospect Twins get Ace level pitcher for rotation.  I think the Twins could sell more tickets with that move.  Get a RH OF / 1B who can hit ok and that is a winning offseason for a team that didn’t need much to begin with this offseason.

[FargoFanMan]

4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

So I get some of this but toward the end it seems like we might trade 4-5 guys for Cease and Vazquez isn’t one of them…….my impression was he was their original reason for having a discussion? No way we send more than 3 players total for Cease.

As you know, there’s about 27 teams that want Ober, Ryan, or Festa……..they aren’t going anywhere & certainly not for a 1 year guy.

Vazquez - Matthews - maybe a minor leaguer? OR, Vazquez - Castro - a lower level arm?

I think Raya might be just below Festa in the Twin’s future view.

I think it takes 3 guys as well. Just depends on who they want to play LF as to what caliber of starter they want. If Castro is the centerpiece then you can give up SWR or Matthew’s. If Larnach is your centerpiece then it’s probably Festa or better. I think Raya is quite a ways behind Festa. I’m not convinced he’s even gonna be a ML caliber starter yet with the low amount of innings he’s pitched. 

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

If Arraez did not score as many runs that in part was on the players behind him. 

Season, after season, after season. 

Sign me up for trading for a player who's a little luckier than him.

[Doctor Gast]

Oh, who has bewitched you?

[Doctor Gast]

23 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Arraez would also make for a nice long term DH if the new ownership want to focus on base runners instead of underperforming HR hitters. Erod and Jenkins will be here very soon so I wouldn’t look for a replacement when Kiersey is already available in AAA to fill in as a short term starter and long term 4/5 OF.  No more Margots are needed. 

I'd love a clubhouse & lineup full of Arraezes, but IMO beyond his $14M is his Boras extension that the Twins weren't willing to put up with. 

[thelanges5]

18 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Generally speaking, Falvey will make his offer based on his belief in those players who would pick up the slack from trading valued players. The Twins can (I don't know if they should/I would) offer a package of 1. Woods Richardson or Matthews; 2. Larnach or Castro; and Vazquez for Cease. The Twins could substitute a couple of prospects such as Cory Lewis or Kaelen Culpepper as well or maybe float Julien. Preller should not hear the names of Jenkins, Keaschall, or Rodriguez. San Diego needs a SP, LF, DH or 1B. The Padres are also expected to trade Arraez but he doesn't add the punch the Twins need for their offense. I would actually be hesitant to add either of Larnach or Matthews in a deal, but it could be argued that the Twins are reasonably covered in those positions.

My largest concern is how the Twins replace an MLB catcher (Vazquez) with guys who have struggled at AA/AAA. If Falvey pulls off that trade he must quickly close the catcher hole with a signing or additional trade. All of these moves can be made if the Twins believe in the players filling the gaps for traded guys.

Agree with the catcher comment. If we trade Vázquez for anyone wed have to sign a suitable backup. Diaz and McCann are out there but would eat $2-5 mil of any payroll we’d dump. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

12 hours ago, ashbury said:

I don't need to reach consensus on an exact amount.  Another poster suggested something like 6/$200M, which is along the lines I was thinking, as the Buy It Now Price like on EBay to shut out all other buyers before the auction takes place. 

I just mostly wanted to make sure this angle is included in the overall thought process.  I don't believe an extension would be team-friendly like 2 years for $20M apiece - not that anyone has mentioned that figure, but the conversation had seemed pretty sunny and casual on what "an extension" would mean to make a trade worthwhile.

Even with new owners, a one-time splurge of another $30M per year on an extended contract would be a record setter for a pitcher for this franchise, and might be the limit of even their generosity, so it needs to be carefully considered by Falvey, in relation to other big-splash moves he might want to make instead. 

And I can't imagine the Pohlads signing off for $200M, until the new buyer has in turn signed off for their $2B or whatever.  Trading for Cease now might have to happen without an extension in place.

I agree with you.  IMO, the Twins should not make a trade for Cease without an extension in place, meaning they probably shouldnt make the trade.  As others have said, a one-year rental is a move made by a team that is one piece away from winning it all.  That does not describe the Twins.

By all means, invest in established pitching if the move is prudent.  You can never have too much quality pitching. 

[Heiny]

I can see something working out for the Cease trade, but at the same time dumping salary seems a little far fetched.  As for Arraez, total science fiction.  The Twins don't want or need him.  That's just not going to happen. Nor do I want it to.

[Karbo]

19 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Generally speaking, Falvey will make his offer based on his belief in those players who would pick up the slack from trading valued players. The Twins can (I don't know if they should/I would) offer a package of 1. Woods Richardson or Matthews; 2. Larnach or Castro; and Vazquez for Cease. The Twins could substitute a couple of prospects such as Cory Lewis or Kaelen Culpepper as well or maybe float Julien. Preller should not hear the names of Jenkins, Keaschall, or Rodriguez. San Diego needs a SP, LF, DH or 1B. The Padres are also expected to trade Arraez but he doesn't add the punch the Twins need for their offense. I would actually be hesitant to add either of Larnach or Matthews in a deal, but it could be argued that the Twins are reasonably covered in those positions.

My largest concern is how the Twins replace an MLB catcher (Vazquez) with guys who have struggled at AA/AAA. If Falvey pulls off that trade he must quickly close the catcher hole with a signing or additional trade. All of these moves can be made if the Twins believe in the players filling the gaps for traded guys.

IMHO to give up that much in trade capital just doesn't make sense unless that 1 piece you added for 1 year, is enough to make you a legitimate WS contender. I just don't see the Twins as in that group.

[tony&rodney]

43 minutes ago, Karbo said:

IMHO to give up that much in trade capital just doesn't make sense unless that 1 piece you added for 1 year, is enough to make you a legitimate WS contender. I just don't see the Twins as in that group.

You are correct about the Twins not being a favorite to win the ALCS and that it is a lot to give up for a rental pitcher. 

My view is that the Twins can get by without Raya or SWR or Matthews, although I'm quite hesitant to trade either of Matthews or SWR. The Twins can get by without Larnach or Castro, although i prefer to hold Larnach. The Twins can afford to add Gabriel Gonzalez and Cory Lewis to a deal. Losing Vazquez can be overcome with a trade or signing as well, although I believe in Vazquez as a catcher. I also think the Twins are not adverse to adding a small amount to payroll.

So the trade makes sense for a couple of reasons. One it solidifies the top four SP and gives the #5 guy less pressure. It relieves the bullpen a fair amount because Cease throws a ton of innings versus a typical #4/5 pitcher. The pressure on the offense is relieved to an extent. The players who need to step up as young players or rookies are put into a favorable position. The Twins do not lose anyone who is crucial to their team success.

 

[JD-TWINS]

14 hours ago, old nurse said:

Arraez was top of the order so he would have less opportunity to drive in runs whereas Buxton was in the heart of the order. If Arraez did not score as many runs that in part was on the players behind him.  Keep in ind that 18 of those runs Buxton scored was by him driving in himself versus 4 for Arraez 

Keep in mind that Arraez struggled early in the year and that his first 33 games he was hitting in front of Teammates on the Marlin’s roster.

Bat him 5th or 6th and utilize his ability to get 175-200 hits to help with RISP! He has value outside of “setting the table.”

[stringer bell]

8 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Keep in mind that Arraez struggled early in the year and that his first 33 games he was hitting in front of Teammates on the Marlin’s roster.

Bat him 5th or 6th and utilize his ability to get 175-200 hits to help with RISP! He has value outside of “setting the table.”

His OPS+ with the Padres was 108, less than José Miranda. His WAR was .9. Last season's Arraez wasn't worth his salary. That may be due to his thumb injury, but it also might be due to having less selectivity. His BB rate has gone from 8.3% in '22 to 5.7% in '23 to 3.6% last year. 

[JD-TWINS]

15 hours ago, arby58 said:

Arraez was in an offense that was 8th in the league in runs scored. The Twins were 10th, so I have a hard time believing his less runs scored were due to the players behind him. He mostly hits singles and doesn't run well. That makes it harder to score runs than if you hit with some power and have some speed. Finally, the fact that Buxton scored himself 18 times versus 4 for Arraez is not an argument in Arraez' favor.

His 1st 33 games (22% of his season) were with the Marlins (not exactly Murderer’s Row)  ……he also had a slow start in ‘24.

He had 75 more AB’s than Castro……Castro struck out 150 times and Arraez struck out 29 times………Castro had a 10-15 point better OBP. I’d rather have Arraez hitting with RISP than Castro…….don’t need walks - HBP - K’s with guys in Scoring Position!

I put his high contact bat at the 5th or 6th spot and you get protection for the batter in front of Arraez and Luis gets 85 RBI hitting regularly with RISP. High Average doesn’t need to bat 1 or 2.

Anybody that averages (576/3) 192 hits per season over past 3 All-star seasons can help score more runs if utilized properly in a line-up.

[old nurse]

22 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

When I put this information together for all the playoff teams, the point was to quantify the WAR from various acquisition methods.  One of those methods is trades but I differentiate trading for prospects and trading for established players given they are very different strategies.  The bar I used for established is a player that has produced a 1.5 WAR season which I think of as a relatively low bar.  When we speak of acquiring established performers, we are normally talking about someone considerably more established than this bar.  Gimenez had one season at 1.2 WAR and Clase produced .4 WAR.  

When a team trades prospects it is generally the ones that the trading team thinks wont make a difference if they make the major leagues.  Look at how little the White Sox got out of the trades of Eaton, Sale and Quintana. 2 great years out of Giolito, and 2 great and one K out of Cease with the return of 2 maye prospects. Miami traded for a lot of players with their stars through the years. Alcantara is about all they have to show for it 

[old nurse]

16 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

It's all on the guys that didn't drive him in.  Arraez did his part by being a great hitter and getting on base.

As a leadoff hitter he had the weakest hitters in front of him in the later innings Did he have the same opportunities as someone in the 3-4 spot did?

[old nurse]

16 hours ago, arby58 said:

Arraez was in an offense that was 8th in the league in runs scored. The Twins were 10th, so I have a hard time believing his less runs scored were due to the players behind him. He mostly hits singles and doesn't run well. That makes it harder to score runs than if you hit with some power and have some speed. Finally, the fact that Buxton scored himself 18 times versus 4 for Arraez is not an argument in Arraez' favor.

When you tout the difference in runs scored you have to be pretty blind not to consider runs scored. Castro and Arraez had the about the same OPB and AB as Castro. Compare and contrast those two and see that there is not that much of a difference in runs scored 

[old nurse]

13 hours ago, ashbury said:

Season, after season, after season. 

Sign me up for trading for a player who's a little luckier than him.

Should the Twins e getting rid of Castro? Similar numbers to Arraez last year. 

[ashbury]

28 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Should the Twins e getting rid of Castro? Similar numbers to Arraez last year. 

Similar numbers with better defense (not that Castro is a Gold Glover at SS or anywhere else) means not similar players.

Not sure why you're bringing up Willi, though.  The question was why Arraez, with his lofty BA, doesn't score more runs.  Especially given the dismissal of his low RBIs as not being part of his game and thus not even worth holding against him as a player overall.

BA is important.  It's what makes Luis Arraez a legitimate major leaguer.  But BA is not the only measure of a player's offense.