What Do Early Moves Across MLB Tell Us About the Twins and Their Capabilities?

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins have been quiet so far this offseason, as expected. But other significant moves are taking place around the league, and the pace figures to pick up with the Winter Meetings getting underway this week. 

From the perspective of the Twins and what they're trying to accomplish this winter, what can we learn from some of the early developments and trends we've seen play out?

Image courtesy of Mike De Sisti and Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images (Willy Adames and Clay Holmes)

We have a pretty clear idea of what Derek Falvey, Jeremy Zoll and the Minnesota Twins front office are trying to accomplish right now. Since any potential additions are essentially contingent on clearing salary from the books and creating some spending flexibility, the Twins are looking to make a trade. Maybe more than one.

While they haven't yet taken part in any significant move outside of the procedural types, there's been a fair amount of hot stove action elsewhere around the league. Let's review some of the more noteworthy moves and unpack the potential implications for the Twins in their efforts. (Moves and details courtesy of ESPN's very helpful offseason tracker.)

San Francisco Giants sign SS Willy Adames for 7 years, $182M
The relevance of this signing to the Twins depends on how legitimate you find the notion of a Carlos Correa trade. Adames was the big prize in the free agent shortstop market and now he's off the board. Other clubs looking to make a splash at the position will need to look elsewhere, and Correa could be an attractive target if he's willing to waive his no-trade clause. Correa is one year older than Adames and his remaining contract (four years, $128 million) looks quite reasonable relative to what San Francisco gave Adames, depending on your confidence in his health outlook.

In particular, I've got my eyes on the Yankees. Last week MLB.com's ace reporter Mark Feinsand wrote that the Yanks were viewing Adames as a "backup plan" in the event they were unable to re-sign the highly coveted Juan Soto, who reached agreement with the cross-town Mets on a 15-year, $760 million deal on Sunday night. What's the Yankees' Plan B now? 

One month ago I wrote about speculation from NY media that the Yankees or Mets might consider reaching out to Minnesota about the availability of Correa. Personally I would not be in favor of trading Correa but it's unfortunately an option the Twins have to at least consider given their payroll circumstances. For what it's worth, Falvey has conspicuously failed to rule out the possibility when asked about it.

New York Mets sign RP Clay Holmes with intentions of converting him to a starter
This is a trend that is seemingly gaining traction across the league: taking an established relief pitcher and converting him to a starter, well into his career. The Padres did it successfully with Seth Lugo in 2023, setting Lugo up to land a sizable contract with Kansas City, where he's now the No. 1 starter. Elsewhere we've seen the Cardinals do it with Jordan Hicks, the Braves with Reynaldo Lopez, and the Rays with old friend Zack Littell, as a few examples. 

It's easy to see the appeal of this arrangement from the pitcher's perspective. Lugo was never getting the contract he got from Kansas City (three years, $45 million with an opt-out) as a relief pitcher. Same goes for Holmes and this similar deal he just got from the Mets: three years, $38 million with an opt-out.

Which brings us to the subject of Griffin Jax. While not an offseason transactional move, per se, the idea of converting Jax back into a starter has definitely been a talking point. Seeing this approach increasingly utilized across the league lends further credence to the concept. At the same time, it does bear mentioning that none of the names we mentioned – Holmes, Lugo, etc. – had a case for being one of the two or three best relief pitchers in all of baseball, as Jax does.

Athletics sign Luis Severino for 3 years, $67 million; Angels sign Yusei Kikuchi for 3 years, $63 million
These contracts are notable because they are both nearly identical to the remaining commitment in Pablo López's deal with the Twins (three years, $65 million). Would you rather have López – younger than both players at 28, and a proven Game 1 playoff starterr – at that price? I know I would. Would you give up quality talent in order to make it happen? Therein lies the question.

Much like trading Correa, this is not a course of action I'd be on board with. The goal is to win a championship, right? You don't give up an All-Star shortstop or No. 1 starter when making that push. However, it cannot be ignored that trading Correa or López is perhaps the only method of clearing out substantial salary that would enable impactful additions elsewhere. And the early offseason landscape suggests that the Twins could get back real value in return if they did choose to follow this disruptive path.

Free agent catchers Danny Jansen and Travis d’Arnaud land with Rays and Angels
The far less disruptive and dramatic scenario for closing the gap on Minnesota's spending cap would be trading Christian Vázquez and his remaining contract (one year, $10 million). But of course, it takes two to tango and finding a taker for an expensive no-hit backup catcher is different from shopping a star. 

Unfortunately, two teams that could've been interested in taking on Vázquez's salary, or some portion of it, have found their solutions at catcher. Jansen signed with Tampa for one year and $8.5 million, while d'Arnaud's deal with the Angels is for two years and $12 million. Elsewhere, Austin Hedges re-signed with the Guardians for one year and $4 million.

The Twins probably weren't going to make a trade with their top division rivals, but the Rays and Angels fulfilling their clear needs behind the plate will make the endeavor of trading Vázquez all the more challenging.

• Read more: Twins Trade Candidate Breakdown: Christian Vázquez

Cubs sign SP Matthew Boyd for 2 years, $29 million
I mention this signing because it's one of the most surprising "He got HOW much?" moments of this offseason thus far. Boyd has always had an interesting level of upside as a lefty with good stuff, but he's never come particularly close to unlocking it and has struggled perpetually to stay on the mound. He hasn't thrown even 80 innings in a season since 2019. 

In light of this contract, it's much easier to envision the Twins finding a taker for Chris Paddack (one year, $7.5 million) and maybe even getting a little bit back in return.

• Read more: Twins Trade Candidate Breakdown: Chris Paddack

Royals re-sign SP Michael Wacha, trade with Reds for 2B Jonathan India and OF Joey Wiemer
The message is here is that the Royals aren't going anywhere. Following a breakthrough 2024 season, Kansas City is continuing to push, already signing Wacha for three years and $51 million following his strong campaign, and sending pitcher Brady Singer to Cincinnati in a move that bolsters their offense. 

It feels like standing pat is almost the best thing we can hope for this offseason as Twins fans. Will that be enough if the Royals – not to mention the Tigers and even the Guardians, who re-signed starter Shane Bieber – continue to invest and improve?

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[dxpavelka]

You seldom get better when you best players go somewhere else.  Why create holes to fix holes? 

 

[thelanges5]

Time to see if the kids can play. Poverty Twins have no $$ to do much of anything else. 
 

Who will show up?

2023 or 2024 Julien, 1st half or 2nd half Miranda, New Balance or Nike Correa, pre or post “slump thing” Lewis, April/May Jeffers, SWR/Festa/Matthews take a step forward?

[IndianaTwin]

4 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

You seldom get better when you best players go somewhere else.  Why create holes to fix holes? 

 

Dx says it more concisely than me.
 

Why trade Lopez and set yourself up for “Wow, we sure could use an ace*”? Why trade Correa and set yourself up for “Wow, our infield defense isn’t what it used to be and we sure could use another RH bat”?

Said another way, if Correa’s and Lopez’s contracts are attractive for other teams, why wouldn’t they be for us?

*Though it would generate more TD copy as people argue over the definition of an ace and whether or not Lopez is one to begin with. /s 

[Whitey333]

First the goal of the Twins is not to win a championship.  If they do win it's basically done by luck and everything falling into place.  The goal of the Twins this year is to continue to "right size" the payroll as Turkey of the Year Joe Pohlad would say.  An̈d with the club up for sale who knows?  And with Falvey most of the time he's last in line to make off season moves apparently to get the bargain basement deals.  I am sure they will clear out as much salary as they can.  It is a good time to find out if these young players can actually play or not.  Or will they continue to keep proving how over hyped and over rated they are.

 

 

 

[Doctor Gast]

47 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

You seldom get better when you best players go somewhere else.  Why create holes to fix holes? 

 

That's the creative approach. Don't you buy it?

[NYCTK]

51 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

You seldom get better when you best players go somewhere else.  Why create holes to fix holes? 

 

Yankees fans coming to grips with this realization is the rest of the world's Schadenfreude today 😍

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Standing pat is the best we can hope for?  Ugh...

[NYCTK]

12 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Standing pat is the best we can hope for?  Ugh...

Don't forget, they lost their starting 1B and RF. So the Twins aren't just running it back. They're demonstrably worse. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

2 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Don't forget, they lost their starting 1B and RF. So the Twins aren't just running it back. They're demonstrably worse. 

This is the kind of positivity we are looking for!!  Your 2025 Minnesota Twins! 

[old nurse]

Although in the Twin Cities area the weather resembles March it is still only December. 

[mikelink45]

I always enjoy seeing the moves that others are making while we wait.  I know this is TD, but as this excellent essay shows - the moves others make do impact us.  KC keeps trying, the Guardians added back their Ace, 

We were never going to be in the Soto sweepstakes only a few teams can over pay the way the Mets and Dodgers do.  I was amazed to see the Dodgers reach out and sign Conforto for $17 M.  Wow - we better look in house for the fourth OF.  And the O's took O'Neill for a three year overpay.  

Detroit has done as much as we have - thank you Tigers and the White Sox are looking for a big trade day to restock their shelves.

Obviously the most important thing is to keep up and surpass our division foes.  The Dodgers, Mets... live in a different world.  But right now KC and Cleveland are not waiting to see what we are doing. 

 

[nicksaviking]

23 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Don't forget, they lost their starting 1B and RF. So the Twins aren't just running it back. They're demonstrably worse. 

Losing Santana, sure. Losing Margot? That sounds like an upgrade no matter who gets his job. At least that person can be sent down after his first 0-fer-10 stretch.

[NYCTK]

4 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Losing Santana, sure. Losing Margot? That sounds like an upgrade no matter who gets his job. At least that person can be sent down after his first 0-fer-10 stretch.

This is egregious erasure of a long tenured Twin. I don't think it's particularly insurmountable to lose Max but he's still a good player that won't be there next season. 

[NYCTK]

26 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

This is the kind of positivity we are looking for!!  Your 2025 Minnesota Twins! 

The front office should release monthly financial statements so we can cheer on the team the same way they do. 

[nicksaviking]

10 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

This is egregious erasure of a long tenured Twin. I don't think it's particularly insurmountable to lose Max but he's still a good player that won't be there next season. 

Yes, seems Kepler is already fading from my memory, sorry.

He definitely was a liability last year though too.

[DJL44]

21 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I was amazed to see the Dodgers reach out and sign Conforto for $17 M.  Wow - we better look in house for the fourth OF.  And the O's took O'Neill for a three year overpay.  

It's not possible that every free agent contract is an "overpay". It's market rate for talent among billionaire owners who have been watching their net worth climb for month. Some of them have gained enough wealth in the last month to buy another professional sports team.

 

[Doctor Gast]

As teams fill their holes in the back end of their rotation, the Twins are sitting & waiting on Paddack & Dobnak, losing out on opportunities.

Trading Vazquez is going to hurt no matter what you do. TB, LAA & CO are backfilling their catching, again losing out on opportunities to move Jeffers.

Edman's extension shows how valuable a player like Castro is to a serious team. 

Falvey's creative approach of putting up a Fire Sale sign, waiting for crappy offers to flood in & at the very end choosing the least crappy one. Trading away needed players so Falvey can dabble in FA to pick up players we don't need. Continue to compromise the '23 core affecting the chemistry that advanced in the postseason to a miserable AL Central 4th place. What we needed last offseason was a FO who was proactive, efficiently  trade away our fat, initiate essential trades to fill real holes. That didn't happen & still need a proactive FO, not a passive "creative" one (what an oxymoron). 

The core doesn't need to change. Falvey needs to change. We have been lucky with players falling into our laps. But our future based on luck & hope won't cut it, we need to see better player evaluations & action. This creative approach won't work, 

If Falvey can't fill simple necessary holes via trade to build off from our core. Then I see a worse fate than we faced last season, I have total faith in this core but I have no faith in Falvey. If Falvey isn't going anywhere, then I regret to ask why pay Correa & Lopez these big salaries if Falvey has no idea in how to field a competitive team from this core? Come deadline when we are no longer in the wild card race. Trading Correa & Lopez will become a sad reality. Adding prospects to our already bloated farm.

 

[tony&rodney]

Dan Hayes, a fine writer had a really lame article on The Athletic. Basically he said the Twins are effed. I feel that this is a tone I see often on TD as well. Perhaps I'm lost in my own head, but I don't believe the Twins are without a myriad of opportunities. 

As of today, the Twins have the largest payroll in the AL Central and higher than Milwaukee as well. For some reason we read that the Twins cannot do this, cannot do that. Falvey has stated that he keeps an open mind but also believes the current roster is competitive. I agree that the Twins are competitive as a more or less 78-88 win team. 

The market has shown a clear value for pitching, strong utility players, and catchers thus far. The Twins cannot get any value for Christian Vazquez and cannot trade either catcher until a deal is finished bringing in a catcher. Despite cries opposed to moving others, there is a strong market and teams who match up well with the Twins for transactions. Perhaps the Mahle, Jorge Lopez, and/or Richards trades have put the front office in fear mode, but that shouldn't be the case. I doubt it is. There are opportunities and the 2025 season could easily be the end for a few executives if the team sells. Sitting on hands with the phone on silent doesn't seem like a plan. I expect several moves because I would not bet a dime on the current Twins team winning more than 88 games next season. 

[Jeff K]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

This is egregious erasure of a long tenured Twin. I don't think it's particularly insurmountable to lose Max but he's still a good player that won't be there next season. 

Losing Max opens up playing time for youngsters whose hitting ought to at least match what Max did last year.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

As teams fill their holes in the back end of their rotation, the Twins are sitting & waiting on Paddack & Dobnak, losing out on opportunities.

Trading Vazquez is going to hurt no matter what you do. TB, LAA & CO are backfilling their catching, again losing out on opportunities to move Jeffers.

Edman's extension shows how valuable a player like Castro is to a serious team. 

Falvey's creative approach of putting up a Fire Sale sign, waiting for crappy offers to flood in & at the very end choosing the least crappy one. Trading away needed players so Falvey can dabble in FA to pick up players we don't need. Continue to compromise the '23 core affecting the chemistry that advanced in the postseason to a miserable AL Central 4th place. What we needed last offseason was a FO who was proactive, efficiently  trade away our fat, initiate essential trades to fill real holes. That didn't happen & still need a proactive FO, not a passive "creative" one (what an oxymoron). 

The core doesn't need to change. Falvey needs to change. We have been lucky with players falling into our laps. But our future based on luck & hope won't cut it, we need to see better player evaluations & action. This creative approach won't work, 

If Falvey can't fill simple necessary holes via trade to build off from our core. Then I see a worse fate than we faced last season, I have total faith in this core but I have no faith in Falvey. If Falvey isn't going anywhere, then I regret to ask why pay Correa & Lopez these big salaries if Falvey has no idea in how to field a competitive team from this core? Come deadline when we are no longer in the wild card race. Trading Correa & Lopez will become a sad reality. Adding prospects to our already bloated farm.

 

Nobody is trading for Randy Dobnak. Unless you're advocating for the Twins to throw in prospects or money to get rid of him which would defeat the purpose. Every team has passed on multiple opportunities to take him for nothing. Nobody is trading for him.

[bean5302]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/players/chris-paddack
 

Quote

That said, he’s younger than most free agent pitchers and paid roughly in line with what might be expected of an older reclamation project. For instance, Alex Wood ($8.5MM), Wade Miley ($8.5MM) and James Paxton ($7MM) all signed one-year deals in this range coming off injury-shortened seasons of their own last winter.

Paddack's deal doesn't come with surplus. I don't know why people view him as a solid pitcher around here. I expect it's just the lasting impacts of the TD hype machine working its magic.

Chris Paddack has pitched 100+ innings 2 times in his 6 year career. His rookie season, 2019, and 4 years ago in 2021. He's never pitched over 140.2 innings. Ever. He's among the bottom (4.82 ERA) 25% of starter ERAs over his past 3 years with the Twins.

Paddack is not comparable to Boyd, at all. Boyd has shown great upside numbers the last 3 years, and was great last year. 2.72 ERA, 3.29 FIP with a 10.44 K/9 last year will 100% turn some heads. Paddack? 4.99 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 8.04 K/9. Boyd also went 135 innings, 170 innings and 180 innings in back to back to back seasons before running into forearm issues in 2021 and eventually leading to a UCL/TJ situation.

I'm going to keep writing this because so many people are living in Paddack ver. 2019. Paddack has never had a year in his career with an ERA and FIP below 3.95. He doesn't strike guys out, he doesn't have great stuff, and he's always hurt. He's a back end rotation arm if he's healthy. Kyle Hendricks (4.81 ERA/4.49 FIP last 3 years) just signed for $2.5MM. 

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

Although in the Twin Cities area the weather resembles March it is still only December. 

This is, however, the Internet. We want our trades NOW!* /s

*Or better yet, yesterday. 

[Linehan]

Twins still have the best pitching staff in the AL Central. It will be interesting to see how the youngsters develop if Festa takes another step forward and we can bolster the bullpen with Louis Varland. We’re going to be a competitive team. I believe the biggest problem is that are core star positional players all have a consistent history injury.  If someone like the Yankees are willing. To give a strong package and Carlos is willing to waive no trade that is a gamble I would make because it solves their self imposed payroll issues completely.

[old nurse]

18 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

This is, however, the Internet. We want our trades NOW!* /s

*Or better yet, yesterday. 

There is a video clip of Morrison singing “we want the world and we want it now” I used to be able to post for these people wanting everything to happen within weeks of the World Series ending   The fun police must not have liked that because I can’t post a link

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Nobody is trading for Randy Dobnak. Unless you're advocating for the Twins to throw in prospects or money to get rid of him which would defeat the purpose. Every team has passed on multiple opportunities to take him for nothing. Nobody is trading for him.

They will when he learns a knuckler 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/players/chris-paddack
 

Paddack's deal doesn't come with surplus. I don't know why people view him as a solid pitcher around here. I expect it's just the lasting impacts of the TD hype machine working its magic.

Chris Paddack has pitched 100+ innings 2 times in his 6 year career. His rookie season, 2019, and 4 years ago in 2021. He's never pitched over 140.2 innings. Ever. He's among the bottom (4.82 ERA) 25% of starter ERAs over his past 3 years with the Twins.

Paddack is not comparable to Boyd, at all. Boyd has shown great upside numbers the last 3 years, and was great last year. 2.72 ERA, 3.29 FIP with a 10.44 K/9 last year will 100% turn some heads. Paddack? 4.99 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 8.04 K/9. Boyd also went 135 innings, 170 innings and 180 innings in back to back to back seasons before running into forearm issues in 2021 and eventually leading to a UCL/TJ situation.

I'm going to keep writing this because so many people are living in Paddack ver. 2019. Paddack has never had a year in his career with an ERA and FIP below 3.95. He doesn't strike guys out, he doesn't have great stuff, and he's always hurt. He's a back end rotation arm if he's healthy. Kyle Hendricks (4.81 ERA/4.49 FIP last 3 years) just signed for $2.5MM. 

Tell Paddack his role is out of the pen.  Period.  He doesn't like it TS.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/players/chris-paddack
 

Paddack's deal doesn't come with surplus. I don't know why people view him as a solid pitcher around here. I expect it's just the lasting impacts of the TD hype machine working its magic.

Chris Paddack has pitched 100+ innings 2 times in his 6 year career. His rookie season, 2019, and 4 years ago in 2021. He's never pitched over 140.2 innings. Ever. He's among the bottom (4.82 ERA) 25% of starter ERAs over his past 3 years with the Twins.

Paddack is not comparable to Boyd, at all. Boyd has shown great upside numbers the last 3 years, and was great last year. 2.72 ERA, 3.29 FIP with a 10.44 K/9 last year will 100% turn some heads. Paddack? 4.99 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 8.04 K/9. Boyd also went 135 innings, 170 innings and 180 innings in back to back to back seasons before running into forearm issues in 2021 and eventually leading to a UCL/TJ situation.

I'm going to keep writing this because so many people are living in Paddack ver. 2019. Paddack has never had a year in his career with an ERA and FIP below 3.95. He doesn't strike guys out, he doesn't have great stuff, and he's always hurt. He's a back end rotation arm if he's healthy. Kyle Hendricks (4.81 ERA/4.49 FIP last 3 years) just signed for $2.5MM. 

Provide some Boyd context to his stats. That was in 39.2 innings last year. 8 starts. He hasn't thrown over 78.2 innings since 2019. Hasn't made more than 15 starts since 2019. Don't say people are living on the 2019 version of Chris Paddack and then bring up a bunch of innings pitched numbers for Boyd that are 2019 and earlier. Paddack has thrown 283 regular season innings since 2019. Boyd has thrown 263. Teams should, and do, question Paddack's ability to hold up. But they should, and do, question Boyd's as well. His "upside" in 2023 looked like a 5.45 ERA and 4.35 FIP in 71 innings with 9.3 K/9. That's in the same realm as Paddack. And the season before that was 13.1 relief innings. You left out all context when talking about Boyd.

And his performance before 2019 had a bunch of 4+ ERAs and FIPs. His career ERA is 4.85 and his FIP is 4.58. His career K/9 is 8.8. Paddack? 4.38, 3.98 and 8.9. Boyd has had 2 seasons with K/9 over 10 and 2 others over 9. They're actually quite comparable when you don't ignore all context and just look at incredibly small sample sizes that include 1 season that was 13.1 innings of relief work and another that was an entire 8 starts. In 2023 when Paddack threw in relief his K/9 was 14.4.

[Parfigliano]

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Provide some Boyd context to his stats. That was in 39.2 innings last year. 8 starts. He hasn't thrown over 78.2 innings since 2019. Hasn't made more than 15 starts since 2019. Don't say people are living on the 2019 version of Chris Paddack and then bring up a bunch of innings pitched numbers for Boyd that are 2019 and earlier. Paddack has thrown 283 regular season innings since 2019. Boyd has thrown 263. Teams should, and do, question Paddack's ability to hold up. But they should, and do, question Boyd's as well. His "upside" in 2023 looked like a 5.45 ERA and 4.35 FIP in 71 innings with 9.3 K/9. That's in the same realm as Paddack. And the season before that was 13.1 relief innings. You left out all context when talking about Boyd.

And his performance before 2019 had a bunch of 4+ ERAs and FIPs. His career ERA is 4.85 and his FIP is 4.58. His career K/9 is 8.8. Paddack? 4.38, 3.98 and 8.9. Boyd has had 2 seasons with K/9 over 10 and 2 others over 9. They're actually quite comparable when you don't ignore all context and just look at incredibly small sample sizes that include 1 season that was 13.1 innings of relief work and another that was an entire 8 starts. In 2023 when Paddack threw in relief his K/9 was 14.4.

Bullpen guy.  Put Paddack in the paddock and tell him it's his only role.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Parfigliano said:

Bullpen guy.  Put Paddack in the paddock and tell him it's his only role.

I'd use him as a 2 inning pen guy if I didn't have a good use for his money by trading him. If clearing his money just leads to a Margot 2.0 type signing I'd put him in the pen. If it could lead to a real addition to the position player side I'd trade Paddack. But if he's on my roster I'd put him in the pen.