The Twins' Offseason Action Is Contingent on Making a Significant Trade

"Stuck in a holding pattern until they can find a way to offload some salary"  I wonder if we are stuck in a holding pattern until they can find a new owner? How much flexibility does Falvey have? More than he would otherwise, or less?

If we are really motivated to "offload some salary" and really have some heavy cash to re-direct, the move has to be Correa. A middle of the road squad in a mid-market cannot afford a $35M DOLLAR player at any position, and we obviously have several other shortstops. 

I am not advocating this. I just don't know who we want to be? This is currently a poorly constructed roster with 3 players eating 50% of our salary budget. 

Or they stand pat and make no moves at all, other than one or two more minor league signings....

22 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Hard to see upside in trading Vazquez and then having to pay 50% of his salary as well. I’m sure there’s a way along with another piece or two to lower or eliminate the $$ outlay, but pretty difficult to assume how it may work.

Isn't that what they did with Polanco?

It's interesting to see the speculation which looks more like  getting out of the previous transaction that were made.

Trades? I hear crickets...a whole lot of them. 

The past has proven this FO doesn't act but instead reacts. Letting other teams dictate your moves based on what THEY do isn't going to make you a "contender" but instead a "pretender". Why would anyone who KNOWS what they need to become better wait for the leftovers, if you were really truely committed to building a consistantly competitive playoff caliber team? Their strategy this off-season won't change and it'll be another year of waiting for scraps. If they even bother to go after them. The only player that they could move to make room for improvements would be Correa and he won't be traded unless he's on board with it and a new buyer is too. They really made a big boo-boo doo-doo signing him. If you aren't going to commit to spending long-term to get better then you don't sign a player for multiple seasons for $30+M per year. To put it mildly, that's Major Brain Fog. 

The same old same old - it is impossible (for me) to understand how F & S operate. If the payroll is going to be below $140 million, one would think that this offseason there should be some transactions. Proactive is a better idea than reactive in March, but I'm just a fan.

One would think that the price for starting pitchers just went up. Kansas City was proactive and with Luis Severino signing with the A's there must be a little bit of fidgeting in New York and a couple of other cities. Paddack should be easy to move but Falvey may still be thinking that the Sheriff is surely to return to 2019 status. Perhaps he also sees Vazquez being one weight room visit and yoga session from returning to his prime as well. Both players do have value. The question is how much and for whom.

Perhaps more importantly, one has to wonder whether the team could be improved by making a bold move, one that could potentially backfire. The consensus on Twins Daily seems to be a roll back of the 2024 team. I'm ready for a roll of the dice with a significant number of trades. Call Seattle, Milwaukee, Arizona, Boston, Miami, and others. Stagnation is my fear for the Twins.

NOT DORIS!!!!!

I agree with the premise that a trade may be the only way the Twins attempt to make a substantial upgrade this offseason.  That being said, I am really not sure who they would move that would result in an upgrade.

You have untouchables (everyone from Correa/Buxton to Ober/Ryan to Keaschall/Jenkins) that would require complete organizational upheaval to move.

You have players that should outperform their salary (Lewis, Miranda, Wallner, Jeffers) that do not make logical sense to move.

Salary dumps: Paddack has limited value, Vazquez is a slight over-pay on the current market.

Not sure what a solid move would look like

32 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Paddack should be easy to move

I agree that they should be able to move Paddack, they want to move Paddack, and they likely will move Paddack. That said, if you're a team looking for pitching aren't you going to wait until all the free agents have signed before you settle for Chris Paddack?

The Twins have to make a trade to free up the budget, but they don't have much to trade that anyone else would want. Paddack and Vazquez are nobody's first choice. They don't want to move Willi Castro, but they probably will if someone overpays in December.

During the last offseason, both the Lynx and Wild were thought to do very little.  Guerin was dealing with a bigger salary problem than the Twins.  And he had a team that missed the playoffs for the first time in awhile.  So he completes a couple deals and brings in a couple guys who were solid, but certainly not big parts of any team.  The Lynx did much of the same.  The results were the Lynx being one shot away from a championship and the Wild are currently the best team in the NHL (I continue to wonder how this is true).

The Twins have a talented roster.  Their biggest needs are relatively minor, with the biggest being a need to cut maybe 5% of their current salary.  Yes, Paddack or Vazquez are the most logical financial moves.  But can the Twins have a disappointing winter and wonderful summer?  I expect we will see a disappointing winter.  Can they have a wonderful summer? 

Paddack could be an inexpensive starter. The contract for the Twins, based on what they pay relievers, makes him a starter.  He hasn’t has nearly a full season since 2020. There will be teams that would take the flier. That would leave the Twins with SWR and Festa as the 4/5 starters  and hoping the kids come through when there are injuries. Not the worst scenario, not the best either. If the Twins’ talent evaluators are skeptical of the minor league players abilities they could package one of them with Paddack to get a prospect they like better. That would entail finding a prospect that another team is skeptical about. The Twins found one in Ryan, so it does happen. Due to salaries I doubt they could make a Pablo Lopez kind of trade. 

The Vasquez conundrum is that they do not have a catcher in the system they like. To find someone who would take a defensive catcher as a backup might not be that hard. Finding a replacement that is less expensive would be. That is why Vasquez is tradable 

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Gotta keep Ober! Ryan is too affordable and effective as well - health? Nobody is trading for a guy that’s not healthy.

I’d add Matthews - Henriquez - C. Lewis - into the mix with positional guys on list above to get trade partners to take action. These individuals don’t help with salary relief but they make moving $$ guys easier if combined in a trade.

Correa isn’t going anywhere. Royce Lewis needs a full season at Target before any thoughts of him being traded are put in motion.

One of the Catchers (probably Jeffers) should be moved with another couple pieces (Castro - Matthews) to bring back a young Catcher that can play.

Hard to see upside in trading Vazquez and then having to pay 50% of his salary as well. I’m sure there’s a way along with another piece or two to lower or eliminate the $$ outlay, but pretty difficult to assume how it may work.

Agree with JD & I agree with Nick that FO should finally start initiating trades & do it right away. Not sit back & wait & hope you get a deal at the end. It's like my Dad who liked to sit back & wait to get a good deal on a Christmas tree. By the time he ends up buying the tree, everything is picked over & he pays almost nothing for a worthless tree & everyone is pissed. Some teams are out there acquiring depth SPs. Paddack is a fair priced mid- lower SP, there is a market for him, go out there & find a trade. Before everyone fill out their catching positions go out there & sell Jeffers. CO desperately needs SPs, go out there give them an offer they can't refuse with Dobnak. There are teams with good young catchers who are blocked go out there & make a fair deal, we have the redundant young players to make it happen & quit complaining about the budget, most trades aren't expensive. Very unlikely these teams will seek us out. If you sit around & wait like last deadline you get a Richards. Do you want everyone pissed again? & quit trading away needed players to afford players we don't need.

RV78 really hit the nail on the head for me.  Nick said it as well.  My biggest frustration with Twins leadership in the past (Pohlads and FO) is that they wait...and wait...and WAIT until all that is left is table scraps.  That's why year after year, they appear to have no plan.  

Things with this organization are just too haphazard.  They are constantly dumpster diving but then go out and sign Carlos Correa for big money.  Correa is a signing you make when you decide your window is open and you're making  a bid for a championship.  When 2023 comes around, and you win the division and actually win a playoff game for the first time in nearly 2 decades the decision is suddenly made to "right size" your payroll.  As fans we then realize "There Really Is No Plan." 

They collapsed at the end of last season and finished 4th in the division.  The only team worse than the Twins was the all time MLB loss record setting White Sox.  But there is still a LOT of talent on this team even though they have some concerning roster holes.  The division is getting better and better.  I agree with RV78 and Nick Nelson that I would "LIKE" to see the Twins be more proactive.  I'd like to see evidence of an actual PLAN, not just reactions to the market.

I think at $7.5 million a LOT of teams would be interested in Paddack.  And with the recent price of pitching Paddack has real value.  The Twins SHOULD be able to make a deal with him, even if it has to be a little later when several teams look at their rotations and see they are coming up short.  

I think there is more value to Vasquez, even at his price than we're allowing for.  There are a host of teams that have a need for a Vasquez type of catcher.  Texas is not a possibility after they signed a catcher but there are others.  And I think there are a lot of teams that would look at the cost of Paddack or Vasquez as not a problem to take on the entire contract.  Especially if a little sweetener like a minor league prospect was attached.  

Finally, I see Nick has Willie Castro penciled in as the starting LF.  That makes sense.  Castro would be following the same career path as Cesar Tovar for the Twins.  Castro is actually very good defensively in LF.  Heck, the Dodgers just gave Tommy Edman 5 yrs and $75 million (and we've been conditioned by our ownership and FO to beg for smelling salts at the thought of $15 million per year for Byron Buxton).  I imagine Edman will play either SS or CF fulltime depending on what other moves the Dodgers make.  But I still think Castro would be someone they would be interested in.

I want to see the Twins swing a deal for Kyle Teel or Dalton Rushing.  THIS is the BIG TRADE I want to see happen during the Winter Meetings.  I think Rushing is more likely with the Dodgers extreme abundance of top catching prospects and All Star Will Smith firmly entrenched as the starter.  I'm not sure what the deal would be, but I would have Castro as part of it.  The Dodgers are in WIN NOW mode.  Why not get an integral piece like Castro right now when Rushing is blocked by Will Smith for several years.  Not sure what else would be needed.  Would the Dodgers push us to include Jhoan Duran?  How big could the deal go?

If you acquired Rushing from L.A. and had a plan to trade Paddack later,  you could make a deal with Miami for Vasquez where you would take back more salary (Alcantara $15 million).  He's coming off Tommy John but after missing all of 2024 he will be ready to pitch in 2025.   

In this type of plan you would cut $23.7 million and add $15.75 million with Alcantara and Rushing.  That leaves around $8 million left to invest in the roster.  Spend $1.5 million to sign Jose Iglesias to cover the infield spots Castro would have and you still have $6.5 million to work with. 

This ownership group and FO has the means to make some moves to fortify this roster while cutting payroll.  They just need to have the guts to be aggressive in implementing their plan.  But waiting "for the market to shake out" isn't going to work.  It will reduce options and Plan B, and Plan C and Plan D.  

If we're going to be pinching "big boy" pennies, and scrounging around in the seats at Target Field for spare change, then where the hell is the jersey patch advertising deal that was in the "home stretch"  two years ago? The estimated MLB team average is $7-8M/yr. (NYY and TOR est. at $20M/ea for ref).  That is unaccounted for "free" income, waiting to be collected and utilized (or pocketed, grr) . At this point ANY deal is better than no deal, and that money would go a long way in helping out the budget, so what's the hold up?

15 minutes ago, Original_JB said:

If we're going to be pinching "big boy" pennies, and scrounging around in the seats at Target Field for spare change, then where the hell is the jersey patch advertising deal that was in the "home stretch"  two years ago? The estimated MLB team average is $7-8M/yr. (NYY and TOR est. at $20M/ea for ref).  That is unaccounted for "free" income, waiting to be collected and utilized (or pocketed, grr) . At this point ANY deal is better than no deal, and that money would go a long way in helping out the budget, so what's the hold up?

Twins will read the room and sign a deal with UnitedHealthcare... 

Perhaps the deals start with a gamble. Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, and Justin Topa to Seattle for Bryce Miller and Harry Ford. Paddack can be traded for a young Dominican League or A level pitcher with some promise or maybe a useful bullpen arm (?-San Diego for Bryan Hoeing?). There are trades and opportunities but waiting has not served the boys in the office well in the past. 

Above all else the Twins need to get their names out there and while that may already be the case because we just don't know, the waiting game and scraps renewal program seems like a plan to fail. Chances need to be taken. Of course, the Twins like the current group of players. However, unlike many, I don't see rolling out the same crew as a viable plan to compete for the AL Central. Of course, one thing we can be sure of is that we never know.

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I agree that they should be able to move Paddack, they want to move Paddack, and they likely will move Paddack. That said, if you're a team looking for pitching aren't you going to wait until all the free agents have signed before you settle for Chris Paddack?

The Twins have to make a trade to free up the budget, but they don't have much to trade that anyone else would want. Paddack and Vazquez are nobody's first choice. They don't want to move Willi Castro, but they probably will if someone overpays in December.

I think Paddack and Castro are the most likely to be traded.  Trading Vasquez will be tricky in that is seems realistic that the Twins will have to cover some of his salary AND replace him.

If we think trading Vazquez is ideal to get some money relief, let's look at todays catching news.  

Danny Jenson signed 1 year deal for $8MM + 2026 option and $500K buyout,

Played 91 games, hitting .205 with 9 HR's and 24 RBI's with 324 plate appearances.  His only calling card was blocking pitches.