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Will they actually trade an elite closer with three years remaining of team control? Which teams might be most interested? What sort of return could the Minnesota Twins expect, and would it be enough to offset his loss? Let's dig in!
What's Up with Jhoan Duran?
2024 was an interesting season for Duran. He started the season on the IL with an oblique injury and never seemed to quite find his 2022-2023 form with his fastball. Despite that, he was still pumping gas, and his 2.70 xFIP was almost a full run better than his ERA. His BABIP was inflated, and his K rate was down slightly, but he was also walking fewer guys than in 2023 and giving up fewer homers. He blew just two saves in 25 opportunities. Simply put, he was still quite good while he didn’t live up to the otherworldly, top-five reliever in baseball hype.
Duran is entering his first season of arbitration eligibility, and MLB Trade Rumors pegs him to make $3.7 million in his first turn. Throughout his first three seasons in the majors, he has pitched to 2.59 ERA and an even better 2.5 xFIP over 184 innings, picking up 58 saves in the process. Even after losing a couple ticks of velocity, he still has elite stuff, and is one of the Twins' most dominant relievers.
The Case for Trading Jhoan Duran
There are two main reasons to consider trading Duran. The first is pay-related. $3.7M is not a lot for an elite reliever, and most teams would be happy to pay that. However, in years two and three of arbitration, he will likely be due for sizable raises based on his performance and status as a closer. Will the Twins want to pay him, say, $10M in 2026? At that point, he may be a non-tender candidate for them as his value would likely be neutral. Additionally, knowing the self-imposed payroll constraints the Twins front office is dealing with, almost $4M could go relatively far towards an impact player in another area of need. Plus, Duran himself would likely net a sizable haul. An elite closer is often worth $15M a season on the open market, and with three years of control remaining, that’s a lot of surplus value. The Twins could likely choose their own adventure when it comes to their ideal return.
The second reason the Twins may want to trade Duran is if they believe his velocity loss is not due to a mechanical or health issue, and instead, is the harbinger of further decline. There were multiple appearances in 2024 where Duran failed to break 100 on any pitch. Can he still be effective if his heater comes in at, say, 98? It’s at least possible that this offseason is the final chance to get maximum value for Duran. Finally, nearly every team would likely be interested in Duran. Elite relievers are in short supply and are key for any contender.
Comparable Trades of the Past
It’s not super common for elite closers with three years of team control to be traded, so finding very similar comps is tricky.
The first comp is the As’ trade of Lucas Erceg to the Royals this past deadline. Duran has better stuff, better results, and a much longer track record of consistency, but Erceg had five and a half years of team control remaining. The A’s netted a pitching prospect with mid-rotation upside, another prospect ready to be a reliever in the majors, and an outfield prospect who was more of a lottery ticket.
Another imperfect comp is the Twins trade of Ryan Pressly to the Astros for Jorge Alcalá and Gilberto Celestino. Not perfect because Pressley was not quite elite, and was traded at the deadline with a year and a half of control. That said, Celestino was a borderline top-100 prospect at the time, and Alcala was seen as a decent starting prospect with mid-rotation upside, who would be elite in the bullpen should he need to convert. Duran has been consistently better, and for longer, so one would assume the payoff would be higher.
Potential Trade Partners
To be clear, as many as a dozen teams could inquire into Duran’s availability - every contending team would love a reliever of Duran’s caliber. Perhaps the most likely trade partners are the teams whose contention window is wide open, and who lost other key relievers to injury or free agency. The Rangers, Red Sox, Orioles, and Phillies all check those boxes, so we will focus on those four teams. Because most contenders are unlikely to give up key roster pieces, we will look at high-end prospects in the upper minors that are basically ready now. I'm also going to focus on prospects that fill positions of need.
Texas Rangers
They lost Jose Leclerc, Kirby Yates, David Robertson, and Andrew Chafin. They also lost starters Andrew Heaney, Nathan Eovaldi, and swingman Jose Ureña. That’s a lot of innings to replace. Their front office has talked about wanting to make it back to the World Series in 2025, and they will need to aggressively pursue elite pitching to make that happen.
What would they be interested in trading? Their top prospect, Sebastian Walcott, is an 18-year-old out of the Bahamas. He’s a middle infielder at Double-A but may move to a corner position, and is likely blocked for the foreseeable future by Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Josh Jung. While it seems sort of unlikely for the Twins to trade Duran for a prospect who’s not quite ready, Walcott would bring more high-end talent to the Twins system.
Boston Red Sox
They lost Kenley Jansen (54 IP), Chris Martin (44 IP), Luis Garcia (59 IP), and Lucas Sims (49 IP). Both Jansen and Martin were well above average, and that’s a lot of innings to replace. Duran would instantly become their best reliever, supplanting Liam Hendricks as the closer, and would push Greg Weissert to middle relief. Competing in the AL East isn’t easy, and Boston is likely interested in upgrading their bullpen as much as possible.
Kyle Teel might be the play here. Drafted in the first round in 2023, the lefty catcher had plus speed for the position, is athletic, has a plus arm, is skilled at pitch framing, and is a pure hitter. The Red Sox have Connor Wong as their primary catcher, and he’s taken a step forward, worth 1.1 fWAR in 2024. Id the Twins were able to land Teel, his left-handed bat would naturally complement Jeffers. Teel’s defense would also make Vasquez more expendable, allowing the Twins to get out from under Vasquez’ $10M salary. It’s possible that the Red Sox would ask for more than Duran for Teel, and it may be worth it.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are a little starved for good relief pitching. They lost Danny Coulombe, who was great for them. However, they just spent $10M to pick up the club options on Seranthony Domínguez and Cionel Pérez who combined for 140 innings of very mediocre, ~4.5 ERA ball. Their window is wide open, and Duran would slot in alongside Félix Bautista to form a lethal duo at the back of the bullpen. Competing for a divisional playoff berth in a loaded division is tough, and locking down games close and late could give them an edge.
The Orioles have a deep farm system, and the Twins may actually match up best here based on players who are somewhat blocked. Coby Mayo is the Orioles best prospect. He’s a corner infielder with a career .922 OPS in the minors, including a ~.960 OPS in the upper minors, and is perceived to be ready for the bigs. He had a brief stint in the majors in 2024, which didn’t go well, but that’s true for most prospects getting their first taste. With the dearth of first base options for the Twins, attempting to acquire a legit first basemen under control for six full seasons could be in their best interest. Again, the Orioles may ask for more than a direct swap, and depending on the ask, it could improve the Twins roster to do so.
Philadelphia Phillies
They lost (brief) old friend Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez to free agency. Both were late-inning options for them and were worth a combined 4.1 bWAR across 87 innings. Those are big shoes to fill, and the Phillies contention window is wide open. Duran would go a long way toward making the 2025 Phillies a complete team.
The Phillies surplus is mainly in the minors, and the majority of their top prospects won’t be ready for a couple seasons. The best option that’s basically ready is right-handed starting pitcher Andrew Painter. Drafted as a prep pitcher in 2021, he’s been out since mid 2023 after getting Tommy John surgery. He has a four-pitch mix, his heater touches 99, and at 6’7”, he has good extension. The Twins would almost certainly need to give more than Duran to get him, but it would be worth it for his frontline starter upside.
Conclusions
When it comes to trading Duran, the big question is really what sort of return teams will offer, and will those offerings improve the 2025 roster enough to justify the tough loss of a key reliever. He’s probably not the most likely player to be traded, but he just might hit the sweet spot of being the least critical player to the 2025 team who will also net a sizable return. The market will undoubtedly be there, and if trading him at peak value makes the Twins better, it may be worth it.
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