Twins Trade Candidate Breakdown: Joe Ryan

What's Up with Joe Ryan
For the second consecutive season, Ryan spent a large portion of the second half on the IL, this time with a teres major strain. When healthy, he has been quite good—at times looking like an ace. He doesn’t walk anyone, is in the 80th percentile for strikeout rate, and in 2024, was worth 3.1 fWAR despite missing almost two months. He’s arbitration eligible for the first time, and MLB Trade Rumors has him set to earn $3.8 million.

The Case for Trading Joe Ryan
Look, trading Ryan would hurt. He will carry major surplus value throughout his three arbitration seasons, as he’s been worth 8.2 fWAR in his three full seasons and is still improving as a pitcher. Losing him would leave a large hole in the rotation, but the Twins are fortunate to have a number of playoff-caliber starters and an enviable amount of high-end pitching depth developing in the minors.

The main reason to consider trading him is that he would net a haul. In a challenge trade, he would likely bring back a star player. If traded for prospects, he would probably bring back an organization’s best prospect.

Comparable Trades of the Past
It’s tough to find perfect trade comparisons, because it’s rare for a playoff-caliber pitcher to be moved with three years of team control. That said, there are a few imperfect comparisons to calibrate against.

The first is the Padres’ trade for Dylan Cease prior to the 2024 season. While Cease is a better pitcher, he came with two years of team control rather than three, so the return could be similar. The Padres gave up their 5th, 7th, and 8th best prospects, and a Major League relief pitcher. Pitcher Drew Thorpe was the headliner, a top-100 prospect with frontline starter potential.

The second imperfect comp is the 2018 Chris Archer deadline trade from the Tampa Bay Rays to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Archer came with three additional seasons of control and was owed $34M in today’s dollars. The Rays netted Tyler Glasnow who was a top-50 prospect at the time, rookie outfielder Austin Meadows who was also a top-50 prospect entering the season, and a player to be named later.

The third imperfect comp is the Twins’ trade for Pablo López. López had produced similar results at the time of the trade as Ryan has for the Twins. For two seasons of team control, the Twins gave the Marlins the reigning batting champ and fan favorite, Luis Arraez. They also received outfield prospect Byron Chourio and infield prospect José Salas. If López had come with a third season of team control, the deal may have been a one for one swap.

Potential Trade Partners
One of baseball’s truisms is that a team can never have enough pitching, and Ryan would be a valuable asset to nearly every team. That said, there are a few contenders that may be especially inclined to try to add Ryan to their rotation - we will start with the Braves, Astros, Orioles, and Padres. It's tough to pinpoint exactly how deals will shake out, so with all proposals, figure that additional prospects may need to be included on one side or the other to balance the scales.

Atlanta Braves
The Braves lost Charlie Morton and Max Fried to free agency. Spencer Strider missed most of 2024 after surgery to install an internal brace in his throwing arm and won’t be ready to return for the start of the season. They still have Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, and Spencer Schwallenbach at the top of their rotation, but after that there’s quite a drop-off to Griffin Canning and Ian Anderson. Joe Ryan would probably be their #2 starter until Strider’s return.

Here, I would look to get both right-handed starting pitcher Hurston Waldrep and catcher Drake Baldwin. Hurston started 2024 at Double-A and made it to Atlanta for two starts. He’s got a plus splitter and fastball, but his control is work in progress. He’s got frontline starter upside, with the downside of a bullpen ace. Baldwin put up an .891 OPS at Triple-A Gwinnett last season, and is expected to be at least a solid backup catcher with upside to be a good regular.

Houston Astros
After losing Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi to free agency, Luis Garcia projects to be the Astros’ fifth starter as he returns from Tommy John surgery. Alex Bregman is a free agent, Jose Altuve is aging, but they have a great core still and seem likely to continue to be all-in. Adding Joe Ryan would give them one of the best rotations in baseball while also allowing them to use their free agent dollars on hitting, their biggest need.

My ask would be Yainer Diaz, the Astros’ young catcher. He won’t be arbitration eligible until 2026 which would add a few million in payroll flexibility to put towards a right-handed platoon outfielder or to sign a good lefty reliever. With four years of team control remaining, Diaz would make it easy to trade Christian Vasquez, Ryan Jeffers, or both. His bat is also strong enough to slot in at DH when he’s not catching. I’m assuming the Twins would need to add a prospect to balance this deal out, but it’s likely worth it for a long-term solution at catcher.

Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles lost their ace Corbin Burnes to free agency, and Kyle Bradish could miss most or all of the season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery he had in June. Tyler Wells will also likely begin the season on the IL after having UCL surgery last June. Their best healthy starters are Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez. Eflin was great in 2023, but has otherwise been a mid-rotation arm. Ryan would probably become the Orioles staff ace. The Orioles lineup is stacked and they have a great farm system, so there are some interesting options here.

I might see if I could convince the Orioles to trade Samuel Basallo, the #13 prospect in baseball. He’s a 6’4” catcher and first baseman currently at Triple-A, is ready to join the Orioles, but is blocked by Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle. There are some questions around his ability to stick behind the dish, but he has improved his receiving and his bat is good enough to be a regular at first base. Since the Twins would benefit from improving at both positions, this seems like a natural fit. Again, the Twins may need to add a prospect to even the swap.

San Diego Padres
Joe Musgrove will miss all of 2025 and Yu Darvish is near the end of the line. The Padres lost old friend Martín Pérez to free agency. President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller is on record as wanting to win the World Series in 2025, and payroll may be a factor. Their payroll is close to the competitive balance threshold and the team may be focused on adding impact players that are also cost-controlled. Joe Ryan would slot in behind Dylan Cease and Michael King and would give the Padres a devastating top of the rotation.

It’s tough to line up a return that makes sense for the Twins given they likely want guys ready to contribute now, and the Padres’ top prospects are largely in the lower minors. The Twins also are unlikely to take on additional salary in this trade, so most of the Padres' established guys may not make sense. If I'm moving Ryan for a prospect, I would push for Ethan Salas, who is a catcher, and the Padres’ top prospect. He had among the most helium of any international prospect signed in 2023, but his stock has dropped just a bit after putting up a .599 OPS at High-A in 2024. At just 18, he will be a project, but may be gettable and would have a real chance at becoming the Twins catcher of the future. The Twins have his brother Jose in the system as an added bonus.

Conclusions
It would be a little surprising should the Twins decide to trade Joe Ryan. But, there are several scenarios where doing so could extend the Twins competitive window. If they feel confident that Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews can all take a step forward, it may be in their best interest to take advantage of a good pitcher’s sky-high value.