Twins Trade Candidate Breakdown: Bailey Ober

[Matt Braun]

The big man from North Carolina has developed into a reliable starting pitcher. Might that entice another club to come calling in the offseason?

What’s up with Bailey Ober?
More of the same. This season was the prototypical Bailey Ober campaign: 31 starts of roughly above-average competence, with almost yawn-inducing consistency. He set a career high in innings pitched, missing just one start on his way to a 3.91 ERA and 191 strikeouts. Being a starting pitcher who can reach the fifth inning without evaporating into a fine mist, just about every team in baseball could use a hurler like him.

The case for trading Bailey Ober:
Hey, man, it’s tough to find starters these days. Most rotations are shaky when the season starts and in complete disarray by August. Pitchers who can chalk up around 180 frames—close to the new gold standard for a starter—are mighty valuable commodities, even if that production is simply fine, not outstanding. The Astros just handed the Blue Jays a haul for half a season of Yusei Kikuchi, for goodness's sake. Minnesota would certainly get more for a younger, better hurler with more years of team control.

This moment is when he’s most valuable; he’s in arbitration now. He’ll never be cheaper than today. Each year will creep the Twins’ payroll a few million bucks higher, a grave consideration for a team looking to trim fat for a potential sale. 

This move would be more akin to Tampa’s ethos regarding starters: next year’s model needs to be here sooner than you think. The Rays have made a habit of developing awesome starters—turning them into real fire-breathing aces—just to flip them for a package surrounding a highly-touted pitching prospect. Then that player becomes an All-Star... and gets traded. So it goes. 

Dealing away Ober could help solve Minnesota’s vague, esoteric problems. No area is a certain weakness, but there’s little they do exceptionally well. There’s a reason why they finished one game above .500. Their talent isn’t bad, per se, just unrealized: how much are you willing to trust guys like David Festa and Brooks Lee at the moment? They need to understand their young players better, and potentially adding to that pool would hedge their bets, shouldering the burden currently placed on their youngsters. 

Comparable trades of the past:
Any of the Rays’ trades from the last few years—say Chris Archer, Blake Snell, or Tyler Glasnow—come to mind, although those three pitchers held more clout than Ober.

An almost perfect comparison is the Dylan Cease trade that brought him to San Diego. Cease has a career ERA .01 lower than Ober's, but he was traded with just two remaining years of team control. He was also just one season removed from a 2nd place finish in the AL Cy Young race, and he seems like the kind of pitcher who should be better than he was for Chicago. Ober, the touch-and-feel soft-tosser, will always be met with more skepticism. Hey, blame modern baseball’s decision-makers.

A better stylistic comp for Ober and a better encapsulation of the possible value proposition here might be Jameson Taillon, whom the Pirates traded to the Yankees with two years of team control remaining in Jan. 2021. Taillon had injury question marks attached to him at the time, and Ober has an extra year of team control left, so if the Twins do pull the trigger on any move, it should be at a slightly higher price tag than that one. Taillon fetched four prospects, though they were all fairly low-wattage guys.

Potential trade partners:
Realistically, every team in prospective playoff contention should be interested in Ober. We all saw how ugly it got for some teams in the postseason: Nearly every Game 3 or 4 was a nightmare barrage of relievers, as managers attempted to bandage a wound with an endless supply of guys who throw 96 with a slider. It can get bad, especially with just an injury or two. Expect some notable teams to be curious about Ober.

Conclusion:
The Twins have a valuable asset in Ober. The league-wide dearth of decent starting pitching elevates his place in the market. Minnesota has yet to truly dive into the waters of hyper-efficient baseball—the kinds of strategies employed by teams like the Brewers and Guardians, who keep their roster in a constant state of churn and flux, save one or two stars—but with a new GM and a new owner potentially on the horizon, that could change. It would be a risk to deal Ober, but maybe that’s what the team needs to get over the hump.

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[Parfigliano]

Lets maybe wait till the team is sold and see what payroll is under new ownership before rushing workhorse SP out the door.

[Mike Sixel]

No fn way. Seriously. 

[DocBauer]

I appreciate various articles about potential trades. It makes sense to speculate. We've been surprised before. 

I stated before the season began that I didn't think we'd seen the best of Ober yet. With the exception of about 2 bad games, he was as good, or better, than he was in 2023. 

What's wrong with the Twins having the best 1-3 they've had in years and keeping them? Festa looks like he could be the real deal. SWR is, at the least, a solid looking starter who still offers up some upside. Moving on from either Ober, or Ryan, both controlled, not expensive, and under 30yo just doesn't make sense any way you slice it. 

For that matter, Lopez is the leader of the stuff and his $21M is not an overpay for a a strong #2 who has often thrown like a #1 since he came to the Twins. 

As good as the young arms look right now, most are a couple months away from being ready for full time ML duty, barring a rash of injuries. And who do you sign to for a couple $M to fill a hole created even close to adequately? 

Again, I understand the principles of "consider this", but I don't agree. KEEP the good staff you have in place and try to be creative in a different way to add to the edges that need help.

[Cory Engelhardt]

If we were to trade him for an all star level bat, possibly 1b, then I may be open to it.

He isn’t someone I would trade for prospects. He is certainly someone who had a career year. 
 

Im not saying I want him traded. But he makes sense if we truly can help the lineup in my opinion 

[darin617]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

Lets maybe wait till the team is sold and see what payroll is under new ownership before rushing workhorse SP out the door.

Am I wrong or did they say they were exploring the idea of selling the Twins. That doesn't mean they are going to be sold.  Washington & LA Angels owners also were exploring the idea of selling their teams and neither did.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Certainly anyone can be traded for the right value, but what would that value be? If I'm sending away a solid MLB #2/3, I want back a prospect pitcher who projects that well as a starting point.  Then, I want a hitter who will make a real impact on this lineup OR a starting level catcher that would make Vasquez expendable.  Do I think it is likely that anyone offers those things?  Nope, and that's why you keep Ober. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

12 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Certainly anyone can be traded for the right value, but what would that value be? If I'm sending away a solid MLB #2/3, I want back a prospect pitcher who projects that well as a starting point.  Then, I want a hitter who will make a real impact on this lineup OR a starting level catcher that would make Vasquez expendable.  Do I think it is likely that anyone offers those things?  Nope, and that's why you keep Ober. 

I agree that that amount of value coming back is what it would take. If that offer is out there, you listen

[tony&rodney]

Last offseason Ober was predicted to be a reach for 150 innings. Despite being pulled early a couple of times, Bailey finished with 178 and 2/3 innings pitched, 24th in all of MLB. Additionally, Ober finished 5th in WHIP and #8 in BA against him. Ober had a fantastic year, is getting better, and has the easy delivery to deliver around 200 high quality IP per season. The price for Ober should be high, higher than Crochet of the CWS. Consider how Seattle values their pitchers.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, darin617 said:

Am I wrong or did they say they were exploring the idea of selling the Twins. That doesn't mean they are going to be sold.  Washington & LA Angels owners also were exploring the idea of selling their teams and neither did.

They've made some pretty aggressive moves in the front office and they've hired a firm to handle the sale. Signs point to the Pohlad's being very serious about selling the team.

[bean5302]

In general, trading a cheap, quality, starting pitcher with 3 years of team control left just does not happen. The Rays never follow that format. They generally don't trade their pitchers until 1.0-1.5 years of control left... maybe 2 if they get a massive overpay.

Ober is a solid pitcher, but his xFIP has been remarkably stable over his career. He's probably about a 3.85-4.10 ERA kinda guy. He'll also be 29 next year, and has a fairly significant injury history despite his great durability in 2024.

He's not in the same league as most of the guys mentioned in the article, but Ober would be coveted by just about any team in MLB as a quality 5+ game playoff series starter. He's more than just a durable innings eater like Gibson, for example.

I'm not sure what teams would jump at Ober and also offer the Twins a solid return for 2025 since Ober's trade value is middle of the road as a quality 2.5 WAR type of guy.

[Cory Engelhardt]

What about a deal centered around Alec Bohm? Solid hitter who is signed through 2026, good strikeout numbers and some power. Maybe he and one of their decent prospects? I’d probably consider it

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

What about a deal centered around Alec Bohm? Solid hitter who is signed through 2026, good strikeout numbers and some power. Maybe he and one of their decent prospects? I’d probably consider it

No

[Cory Engelhardt]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

No

But what if it is a good prospect with him? I feel like he would help the lineup. Just throwing out a potential idea 

[Mike Sixel]

15 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

But what if it is a good prospect with him? I feel like he would help the lineup. Just throwing out a potential idea 

He's their best pitcher. No for me

[Finlander]

29 years old doesn't scare me much - there aren't a lot of miles on his arm yet. While I'm an "everyone could be available to discuss" guy, I think Ober's control, slider command, and stature, gives the Twins a pitcher with a unique release as compared to others on the staff. He truly performed as a solid #3. As the farm guys project for now as 4-5 types, I'd be very cautious about shopping either Ober, Lopez, or Ryan if there are any playoff hopes for next season. I'd rather fish for a MLB ready first baseman, second baseman, or catcher with someone like Festa or Raya. But maybe Ober could be made available at the trade deadline if the team appears to be out of the playoff picture and decides to transition into a rebuild effort. I sure like him though - he has a "quiet bulldog" vibe, if that makes any sense. The staff needs more of that.

[Doctor Wu]

I can't imagine the Twins would even consider trading Ober this season, and I sure hope they don't. If we seriously want to compete for a pennant next season we need Ober to be one of our starters. As others have suggested, he may still be able to ramp it up another gear and be even better. Even trading him for a power bat or prospects doesn't even appeal to me. We need his arm in the rotation. 

[old nurse]

The Taillon and Snell trades are the perfect examples of what happens in these trades for prospects or near as ready as they are ever going to get players. 

[bean5302]

10 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's their best pitcher. No for me

He's your favorite pitcher, let me fix that for you, lol.

[darin617]

13 hours ago, bean5302 said:

They've made some pretty aggressive moves in the front office and they've hired a firm to handle the sale. Signs point to the Pohlad's being very serious about selling the team.

We shall see. The FO moves could be cost cutting measures.  To me it makes no sense why they should care what the people say about them. I wouldn't sell a goose that lays golden eggs. 

Owners are billionaires and they aren't billionaires because they are in business to lose money. Yes, they can afford to lose millions but most won't. Teams keep payroll at a level so they make money. The only problem is they don't have to disclose records to say how much they made. 

The only things people can see is what the teams get from the TV deals. 

[Unwinder]

What does Bailey Ober need to do to get some respect from the Twins fanbase? He's outperformed Pablo's ERA for three years in a row (with the huge caveat that he's been pitching fewer innings). National sources consistently speak highly of him! Fangraphs puts him at 29th best starter in baseball last year. ESPN ranks him #40. That's a good to very-good #2! About the worst you can say about him is that he's not an ace. It's a huge gamble to count on one of Matthews, Morris, or Festa to reach that level! And as a late-round draft pick who made it as a reliable MLB starter, he should be basking in the same sort of pulled-himself-up-by-the-bootstraps local folk-hero status as Naz Reid. I don't see why he can't shake the narrative that he's a ho-hum innings-eater.

[jmlease1]

I want nothing to do with trading Ober, who i think is excellent, but you have to trade value to get anything and he's got a ton of it.  but where the twins are right now because of the Pohlad self-imposed payroll limitations, it's very hard to put together an Ober package that makes a lot of sense, unless you're tearing this down for 2025...at which point dealing other players like Lopez, Buxton, Correa (if he's amenable) plus Jax & Duran probably make even more sense. Dealing Ober to improve the MLB squad would require taking back a lot more in salary, so seems really unlikely. And i definitely don't want to move him for a bunch of prospects, no matter how highly rated they might be, because it seems impossible that anyone acquiring him would have a superior pitching prospect in AA or higher waiting if they have such a need for Ober.

he's worth a ton, and for good reason. Seems like a bad idea to move him, though, unless we've already created payroll flexibility.