Twins Video
What’s up with Bailey Ober?
More of the same. This season was the prototypical Bailey Ober campaign: 31 starts of roughly above-average competence, with almost yawn-inducing consistency. He set a career high in innings pitched, missing just one start on his way to a 3.91 ERA and 191 strikeouts. Being a starting pitcher who can reach the fifth inning without evaporating into a fine mist, just about every team in baseball could use a hurler like him.
The case for trading Bailey Ober:
Hey, man, it’s tough to find starters these days. Most rotations are shaky when the season starts and in complete disarray by August. Pitchers who can chalk up around 180 frames—close to the new gold standard for a starter—are mighty valuable commodities, even if that production is simply fine, not outstanding. The Astros just handed the Blue Jays a haul for half a season of Yusei Kikuchi, for goodness's sake. Minnesota would certainly get more for a younger, better hurler with more years of team control.
This moment is when he’s most valuable; he’s in arbitration now. He’ll never be cheaper than today. Each year will creep the Twins’ payroll a few million bucks higher, a grave consideration for a team looking to trim fat for a potential sale.
This move would be more akin to Tampa’s ethos regarding starters: next year’s model needs to be here sooner than you think. The Rays have made a habit of developing awesome starters—turning them into real fire-breathing aces—just to flip them for a package surrounding a highly-touted pitching prospect. Then that player becomes an All-Star... and gets traded. So it goes.
Dealing away Ober could help solve Minnesota’s vague, esoteric problems. No area is a certain weakness, but there’s little they do exceptionally well. There’s a reason why they finished one game above .500. Their talent isn’t bad, per se, just unrealized: how much are you willing to trust guys like David Festa and Brooks Lee at the moment? They need to understand their young players better, and potentially adding to that pool would hedge their bets, shouldering the burden currently placed on their youngsters.
Comparable trades of the past:
Any of the Rays’ trades from the last few years—say Chris Archer, Blake Snell, or Tyler Glasnow—come to mind, although those three pitchers held more clout than Ober.
An almost perfect comparison is the Dylan Cease trade that brought him to San Diego. Cease has a career ERA .01 lower than Ober's, but he was traded with just two remaining years of team control. He was also just one season removed from a 2nd place finish in the AL Cy Young race, and he seems like the kind of pitcher who should be better than he was for Chicago. Ober, the touch-and-feel soft-tosser, will always be met with more skepticism. Hey, blame modern baseball’s decision-makers.
A better stylistic comp for Ober and a better encapsulation of the possible value proposition here might be Jameson Taillon, whom the Pirates traded to the Yankees with two years of team control remaining in Jan. 2021. Taillon had injury question marks attached to him at the time, and Ober has an extra year of team control left, so if the Twins do pull the trigger on any move, it should be at a slightly higher price tag than that one. Taillon fetched four prospects, though they were all fairly low-wattage guys.
Potential trade partners:
Realistically, every team in prospective playoff contention should be interested in Ober. We all saw how ugly it got for some teams in the postseason: Nearly every Game 3 or 4 was a nightmare barrage of relievers, as managers attempted to bandage a wound with an endless supply of guys who throw 96 with a slider. It can get bad, especially with just an injury or two. Expect some notable teams to be curious about Ober.
Conclusion:
The Twins have a valuable asset in Ober. The league-wide dearth of decent starting pitching elevates his place in the market. Minnesota has yet to truly dive into the waters of hyper-efficient baseball—the kinds of strategies employed by teams like the Brewers and Guardians, who keep their roster in a constant state of churn and flux, save one or two stars—but with a new GM and a new owner potentially on the horizon, that could change. It would be a risk to deal Ober, but maybe that’s what the team needs to get over the hump.
Recommended Comments
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now