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We have a pretty clear idea of what Derek Falvey, Jeremy Zoll and the Minnesota Twins front office are trying to accomplish right now. Since any potential additions are essentially contingent on clearing salary from the books and creating some spending flexibility, the Twins are looking to make a trade. Maybe more than one.
While they haven't yet taken part in any significant move outside of the procedural types, there's been a fair amount of hot stove action elsewhere around the league. Let's review some of the more noteworthy moves and unpack the potential implications for the Twins in their efforts. (Moves and details courtesy of ESPN's very helpful offseason tracker.)
San Francisco Giants sign SS Willy Adames for 7 years, $182M
The relevance of this signing to the Twins depends on how legitimate you find the notion of a Carlos Correa trade. Adames was the big prize in the free agent shortstop market and now he's off the board. Other clubs looking to make a splash at the position will need to look elsewhere, and Correa could be an attractive target if he's willing to waive his no-trade clause. Correa is one year older than Adames and his remaining contract (four years, $128 million) looks quite reasonable relative to what San Francisco gave Adames, depending on your confidence in his health outlook.
In particular, I've got my eyes on the Yankees. Last week MLB.com's ace reporter Mark Feinsand wrote that the Yanks were viewing Adames as a "backup plan" in the event they were unable to re-sign the highly coveted Juan Soto, who reached agreement with the cross-town Mets on a 15-year, $760 million deal on Sunday night. What's the Yankees' Plan B now?
One month ago I wrote about speculation from NY media that the Yankees or Mets might consider reaching out to Minnesota about the availability of Correa. Personally I would not be in favor of trading Correa but it's unfortunately an option the Twins have to at least consider given their payroll circumstances. For what it's worth, Falvey has conspicuously failed to rule out the possibility when asked about it.
New York Mets sign RP Clay Holmes with intentions of converting him to a starter
This is a trend that is seemingly gaining traction across the league: taking an established relief pitcher and converting him to a starter, well into his career. The Padres did it successfully with Seth Lugo in 2023, setting Lugo up to land a sizable contract with Kansas City, where he's now the No. 1 starter. Elsewhere we've seen the Cardinals do it with Jordan Hicks, the Braves with Reynaldo Lopez, and the Rays with old friend Zack Littell, as a few examples.
It's easy to see the appeal of this arrangement from the pitcher's perspective. Lugo was never getting the contract he got from Kansas City (three years, $45 million with an opt-out) as a relief pitcher. Same goes for Holmes and this similar deal he just got from the Mets: three years, $38 million with an opt-out.
Which brings us to the subject of Griffin Jax. While not an offseason transactional move, per se, the idea of converting Jax back into a starter has definitely been a talking point. Seeing this approach increasingly utilized across the league lends further credence to the concept. At the same time, it does bear mentioning that none of the names we mentioned – Holmes, Lugo, etc. – had a case for being one of the two or three best relief pitchers in all of baseball, as Jax does.
Athletics sign Luis Severino for 3 years, $67 million; Angels sign Yusei Kikuchi for 3 years, $63 million
These contracts are notable because they are both nearly identical to the remaining commitment in Pablo López's deal with the Twins (three years, $65 million). Would you rather have López – younger than both players at 28, and a proven Game 1 playoff starterr – at that price? I know I would. Would you give up quality talent in order to make it happen? Therein lies the question.
Much like trading Correa, this is not a course of action I'd be on board with. The goal is to win a championship, right? You don't give up an All-Star shortstop or No. 1 starter when making that push. However, it cannot be ignored that trading Correa or López is perhaps the only method of clearing out substantial salary that would enable impactful additions elsewhere. And the early offseason landscape suggests that the Twins could get back real value in return if they did choose to follow this disruptive path.
Free agent catchers Danny Jansen and Travis d’Arnaud land with Rays and Angels
The far less disruptive and dramatic scenario for closing the gap on Minnesota's spending cap would be trading Christian Vázquez and his remaining contract (one year, $10 million). But of course, it takes two to tango and finding a taker for an expensive no-hit backup catcher is different from shopping a star.
Unfortunately, two teams that could've been interested in taking on Vázquez's salary, or some portion of it, have found their solutions at catcher. Jansen signed with Tampa for one year and $8.5 million, while d'Arnaud's deal with the Angels is for two years and $12 million. Elsewhere, Austin Hedges re-signed with the Guardians for one year and $4 million.
The Twins probably weren't going to make a trade with their top division rivals, but the Rays and Angels fulfilling their clear needs behind the plate will make the endeavor of trading Vázquez all the more challenging.
Cubs sign SP Matthew Boyd for 2 years, $29 million
I mention this signing because it's one of the most surprising "He got HOW much?" moments of this offseason thus far. Boyd has always had an interesting level of upside as a lefty with good stuff, but he's never come particularly close to unlocking it and has struggled perpetually to stay on the mound. He hasn't thrown even 80 innings in a season since 2019.
In light of this contract, it's much easier to envision the Twins finding a taker for Chris Paddack (one year, $7.5 million) and maybe even getting a little bit back in return.
Royals re-sign SP Michael Wacha, trade with Reds for 2B Jonathan India and OF Joey Wiemer
The message is here is that the Royals aren't going anywhere. Following a breakthrough 2024 season, Kansas City is continuing to push, already signing Wacha for three years and $51 million following his strong campaign, and sending pitcher Brady Singer to Cincinnati in a move that bolsters their offense.
It feels like standing pat is almost the best thing we can hope for this offseason as Twins fans. Will that be enough if the Royals – not to mention the Tigers and even the Guardians, who re-signed starter Shane Bieber – continue to invest and improve?
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